Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan 2021: Impact on India

[ezsasa]

isn't there a poilitical theory that after a hostile takeover of a country, the first batch of leadership of victors don't last long? or am i remembering this wrong?

 

[hit&run]

Past experiences have shown that battle theatres remain localised. For example, during 1971 war, while entire focus was eatern front, the west remained statusquo. Similarly, during Kargil, the action was limited to LoC and did not spill over to IB in Punjab even though there was a fullscale war. Invading G.B does not necessarily mean taking conflict to I.B needed to capture downstream places like Alahore or Karachi. There are enough reasons to takeover G.B, PoK without opening front on I.B.

You can see it was localised but can’t tell why it was localised and then suggest we can march beyond LOC without showing what kind of invasion that would be.

I see a slaughter house with PA PLA combined.

Let me confuse the readers more here. Any future invasion has to be backed by India’s counter force nuclear capability which is still not visible or too ambiguous. Ambiguous means absent.

Members here @Lost user are conflating good defensive capabilities with invasion capabilities. Both work on diffrent paradigms. If your counterforce is not available you compensate it with your conventional capabilities backed by counter-value capabilities at area of your choosing where you can exert maximum strength. In mountains your mechanised or armoured thrust will not work. Most of you lobbed munition will be lost on slops. Kargil was an exception beacause AoI was hit with direct line of artillery.

Therefore, if we have to preempt then opening fronts on IB with the help of multiple IBG’s (cold start) followed by corps level invasion make sense. LOC will fall much faster after that with Pakistani force concentration protecting IB. Even if one looks and PA posturing they expect losing POK if Punjab or central and South Pakistan is threatened.

 

[Maharaj samudragupt]

isn't there a poilitical theory that after a hostile takeover of a country, the first batch of leadership of victors don't last long? or am i remembering this wrong?

You domt remember the source probably.
It was part of that bezmenovs lecture about subversion.

 

[hit&run]

isn't there a poilitical theory that after a hostile takeover of a country, the first batch of leadership of victors don't last long? or am i remembering this wrong?

• The plans take time to mature. Multiple pilot projects, testing responses, testing internal stability by methods like demonetisation, or simply collecting data during spontaneous instability, building up capabilities and then running simulations with each changing circumstances. By the time plan is put on execution the leadership or that particular establishment turns old with no political appeal left to come back to power again.

• Also direct involvement of the side losing can not be ruled out. That is why they say war is the last resort. Once you cross that line the hostility becomes permanent and every dirty trick planted including compromised opposition is activated to take the leader down.

• Conflicts subsumes you even when you win or remain safe. Your tenure to serve normally ends after that. A leader must come prepared. It his duty of care to wage war on enemies of the state to then perish when it is done regardless of the end result.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Latest statement from Northern Alliance


Translation
In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate Make up your mind to be close to the pious! The Afghan National Resistance Front welcomes the majority of the articles of the "Afghan Ulema" resolution, which was issued in Kabul on 14 September this year to "immediately end the war" and is pleased that the country's ulema and clerics have not remained indifferent to the current situation. They are working for peace and security. The National Resistance Front proposes the following in order to conclude the legitimate and reasonable levels mentioned in the said declaration and to facilitate the requirements of national peace and security in the country:

The National Resistance Front agrees in principle with resolving the current problems and the immediate cessation of hostilities and the continuation of the negotiation process, and hopes that the Taliban will respond to the request of the clerics and take practical steps. The National Resistance Front is ready to immediately end the war in order to achieve lasting peace, if the Taliban end their attacks and military operations in Panjshir and Andarab, and hopes to hold a large-scale meeting with scholars and reformers. Continue conversations.

The National Resistance Front fully supports the call of the religious scholars to lift the sanctions imposed on Panjshir and hopes that the Taliban group will take this Islamic and humanitarian demand seriously and implement it.

The people of Afghanistan are overwhelmingly Muslim, and the struggles and sacrifices of the people of Panjshir, Andarab, Parwan, Kapisa, and other provinces and regions of Afghanistan over the past forty years are for the establishment of a true Islamic system and a servant of the sun. Therefore, there is no religious, human or logical reason why the Taliban group, which claims to be fighting for the establishment of the Islamic system, in Panjshir, Andarab, Parwan, Kapisa or other parts of the country where the word of God is prevalent, Azan Mohammadi daily from All mosques will be declared to Jahr, and the people will stand firm in the performance of their religious duties and rituals. The National Resistance Front proposes that the Taliban stop its military operations in Panjshir, Andarab, Parwan and Kapisa and withdraw its forces from Panjshir and Andarab. In return, the National Resistance Front will direct its forces to refrain from military action.

The National Resistance Front declares that the Taliban's attack on areas whose people do not trust their rule according to the Taliban's record is against the law. The National Resistance Front is committed to resolving disputes with the Taliban peacefully in accordance with religious and moral principles, and is confident that it can negotiate peacefully with the Taliban and the rest of the guilds and groups representing the Afghan people in various ways. Reach understandings that all groups and strata of the country find themselves in the mirror and are interested and committed in its establishment and promotion.
Peace be upon you and God's mercy and blessings
Afghanistan National Resistance Front Center
پنجشیر
14 September 1400

 

[Jimih]

CBS has learned multiple flights are being held on the ground at the Mazar-i-Sharif airport.

 

[Suhaldev]

If you've read Adrian Levy's latest book(spy something..)he said that that Gokhale and his stratnewsglobal is more or less the external affairs arm of the Indian government.
See this excerpt here from that book
View attachment 108502

How's the book? I heard it messed up balakot and Pulwama attack time line and has pro isi views? Worth to invest time on?

Further, it's a well known fact that nitin and shishir gupta (ht) are on govt payroll.

Afghan resistance has wiped out the Taliban from Panjshir. 1000 of them were trapped.

Idk what republic and Indian twitter handles ares smoking, taliban's has advanced and mossuds statement says situation is not fully under their control.

I have this wonderful feeling that Pak is going to be shoved into the FATF Black List in the next meet.

Pak will never be pushed to black list due to a radical unstable nuclear nation.

 

[DownWithCCP]

How's the book? I heard it messed up balakot and Pulwama attack time line and has pro isi views? Worth to invest time on?
Further, it's a well known fact that nitin and shishir gupta (ht) are on govt payroll.

I haven't read the book entirely(just finished about 100 pages, not yet reached the balakot-pulwama section) but yea it seems to be biased towards ISI(especially in its narration of the 2001 Parliament attacks) at least the way the book is narrated, but sometimes it sounds like a fiction book, especially some parts where he describes about agents narrating their operations, but a good things is it offers a sneak peek into the inner workings of RAW, don't know how much of it is true, so I suggest you to read and arrive at your own conclusion of whether the stuff written is true or not.

 

[Anandhu Krishna]

View attachment 108461

US have been in constant contact with the pakis. US could continue to use pak as the front state for influence in AFG. If that is the case, the importance of pak only increased for the US.

 

[Jimih]

Spokesperson gone

 

[Srinivas_K]

 

[Srinivas_K]

 

[FalconSlayers]

I’ve already posted it with translation below .

Latest statement from Northern Alliance


Translation
In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate Make up your mind to be close to the pious! The Afghan National Resistance Front welcomes the majority of the articles of the "Afghan Ulema" resolution, which was issued in Kabul on 14 September this year to "immediately end the war" and is pleased that the country's ulema and clerics have not remained indifferent to the current situation. They are working for peace and security. The National Resistance Front proposes the following in order to conclude the legitimate and reasonable levels mentioned in the said declaration and to facilitate the requirements of national peace and security in the country:

The National Resistance Front agrees in principle with resolving the current problems and the immediate cessation of hostilities and the continuation of the negotiation process, and hopes that the Taliban will respond to the request of the clerics and take practical steps. The National Resistance Front is ready to immediately end the war in order to achieve lasting peace, if the Taliban end their attacks and military operations in Panjshir and Andarab, and hopes to hold a large-scale meeting with scholars and reformers. Continue conversations.

The National Resistance Front fully supports the call of the religious scholars to lift the sanctions imposed on Panjshir and hopes that the Taliban group will take this Islamic and humanitarian demand seriously and implement it.

The people of Afghanistan are overwhelmingly Muslim, and the struggles and sacrifices of the people of Panjshir, Andarab, Parwan, Kapisa, and other provinces and regions of Afghanistan over the past forty years are for the establishment of a true Islamic system and a servant of the sun. Therefore, there is no religious, human or logical reason why the Taliban group, which claims to be fighting for the establishment of the Islamic system, in Panjshir, Andarab, Parwan, Kapisa or other parts of the country where the word of God is prevalent, Azan Mohammadi daily from All mosques will be declared to Jahr, and the people will stand firm in the performance of their religious duties and rituals. The National Resistance Front proposes that the Taliban stop its military operations in Panjshir, Andarab, Parwan and Kapisa and withdraw its forces from Panjshir and Andarab. In return, the National Resistance Front will direct its forces to refrain from military action.

The National Resistance Front declares that the Taliban's attack on areas whose people do not trust their rule according to the Taliban's record is against the law. The National Resistance Front is committed to resolving disputes with the Taliban peacefully in accordance with religious and moral principles, and is confident that it can negotiate peacefully with the Taliban and the rest of the guilds and groups representing the Afghan people in various ways. Reach understandings that all groups and strata of the country find themselves in the mirror and are interested and committed in its establishment and promotion.
Peace be upon you and God's mercy and blessings
Afghanistan National Resistance Front Center
پنجشیر
14 September 1400

 

[Automatic Kalashnikov]

So he is alive?

 

[Jimih]

ISI written all over

 

[Jimih]

So he is alive?

 

[Srinivas_K]

So he is alive?

he is tweeting so he must be alive.

pakistanis also claimed war till victory in 1971 after their defeat.
It has become a habit of premature celebrations and fake bravado every night to the ISPR Twitter accounts.

counter intelligence operations are on the way around Panjshir valley to smoke out any elements left after the retreat of Taliban.

 

[Stalingrad]

The face of Ahmed Massoud's Resistance forces killed in clashes. Apparently he survived brutal attack on Ahmed Shah Massoud back then.

 

[Jimih]

Republic Bharat allegedly used the picture of Former BSP MLA to depict Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar. The channel rectified the error later and apologised.

Yakub Qureshi family has filed defamation case against the channel for 500 crores.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Twitter account information is in reliable


why would Ahmed Masood post a letter on Twitter or Facebook?

As per sources Taliban have been dealt a big and decisive blow.

FahimDasthy is a spokes person he may not participate in front line war.

Pakistani drones and intelligence tried their tricks to assassinate Resistance VIPs but got major setbacks. Right now ISI is frustrated.