Well China is going to use Afghanistan for its one belt one road. Tali spokesman confirmed it today. That makes us all wonder, how can the US allow it? Why did the US leave knowing this will happen? What are the US future goals for Afghanistan and particularly with Talis? Why the US think that Asraf Gani/democratic govt doesn't suit their long term goals (unknown to us)?
I request your feedback and insights on these questions, please?
When I do a cost/benefit analysis from perspective of US Deep State I think:
Who is the most adamant about US continuing presence in afghanistan? India. That means it must have a lot to gain from a stable afghanistan. Is it paying us anything for this positive outcome? No. It means its free-riding on our efforts. Lets force India to share the costs/have boots on the ground. Didnt work? India refused? Lets leave this headache for them to handle then. We arent providing a free service.
Supporting the ANA and Ghani cost a lot of money. The Govt wasnt popular, was very corrupt and it was only spending of billlions of $$$ by US to buy the local warlords and paki puppets that made afghan govt survival possible. It was an unsustainable arrangement. So if it is known that your puppet govt is not gonna survive anyways then why not work out a good deal with the upcoming taliban and have them on your side. Helping to continue the afghan govt only fills the coffers of Ghani and does not further any US interest
The US does not benefit from promoting democracy, human rights etc in afghanistan. Its only 1% of afghans - the english speaking kabul elite that benefit because their quality of life has improved under american puppet govt. Instead the US' long term interest is to keep the global izlamic terror infrastructure alive because it is the West's abrahimic attack dogs/shock troops. See my previous 3 posts in previous 2 pages of this thread.
The original purpose of US invasion was to control the center of eurasian landmass and have leverage over all future adversaries: russia china india iran. Now after 20 years, the situation has changed and with hybrid war being the most important, US no longer sees its optimum to spend resources controlling land in this region. It has learned to achieve the same outcome in a more efficient manner and can spend its resources elsewhere.
The original reason may have been about controlling global oil flows with iraq and iran on the radar. Now with plenty of domestic shell oil in the US this region is less important for petro-dollar.
The original stated / "official" reason was to removed al queda and kill osama bin laden. OBL has been killed so there is no compelling domestic compulsion to continue.
May be saving money in afghanistan can mean US can divert more money and military to other fronts like indo-pacific.
Since we have our own guy - a democratic puppet Biden in office now - lets own this up, pacify the domestic anti-war political groups and earn some undeserved credit. Now is a good time as any to pullout.
Thinking several moves ahead:
If the china successfully does BRI in afghanistan. It doesnt hurt US much in the short term. It hurts India the most since India will be surrounded. This is a good outcome for US since it means India will no longer able to dilly-dally with the west. Instead now India will be forced in the US camp unwillingly.
US seems to have made a back-door deal with taliban or pakistan or both. May be they are trying to keep them away from china. And when China gets entrenched in afghanistan, US wants taliban/pakistan to create a kashmir like situation there and create unrest in xianjiang. Welcome china to "the graveyard of empires."
An unstable Afghanistan could create problems in central asian countries which will force these stans closer to Russia for security and away from china. This could be another reason why russia is so happy supporting taliban.
A revival of radical izlamic governments in afghanistan runs counter to the trend of Saudi arabian and uae govts becoming less izlamic and more secular. May be revival of taliban will help US blackmail middle-eastern monarchies and threaten them with religious coups.
Continuing the Afghan puppet govt meant being excessively dependent on pakistan for logistics and supplies. May be US is tired of pakistan's double game and wants to stop feeding the snake. One can hope.
OR it could simply be that Beijing Biden want to gift afghanistan on a platter to his friend and return the favor for hilal-e-pakistan .
Many times real reasons only become apparent after some time and not all decisions are logical and methodically thought out. Often things dont go as planned.
What is known is that US planned to pull out for a long time and US decided long back that it will be the taliban and not the afghan civilian govt that will rule afghanistan after US leaves. That is why for last 2 years when discussing afghanistan on troika and various international forums, only pakistan, russia china, US and taliban were invited for meetings. The afghan civilian govt was never invited to discuss the future of afghanistan.
But it seems the evacuation didnt exactly go according to plan for US. But the it is just a small part of the larger exercise.
