
The principal reason why Afghanistan had remained unstable for the past 200 years is its landlocked territorial nature, which had forced it (ever since its founding in 1747) to be accorded the status of a ‘
predatory state’ that periodically launched wars of aggression for the sake of plundering India, and using spoils to create temporary bonded tribal alliances. More than three-quarters of its revenues at that time came from looting India. However, this way of living could not be sustained beyond 100 years.

During the 20 years of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s government rule, the food shortages were mainly resolved by international aid, and most of the international aid came from the US, Europe and India. Now, the situation facing Afghanistan is that the uncertain risk of domestic food production that has risen sharply due to the regime change. Since last year, food prices in the international market and the domestic market of developing countries have soared, while existing international aid has been substantially reduced, especially in the US, Europe, and India. Aid may not be restored in the foreseeable future. Some Gulf Cooperation Council member-countries may provide partial assistance, but it is difficult to expect them to fill all the gaps in aid cut off by the US, Europe and India.

Some people are hoping for the mineral resources of Afghanistan to be commercially exploited, it will take
at least a decade for the required road/rail transportation networks to be built for the sake of ferrying the exploited minerals. And given the sky-high transportation costs, people should not expect too much.

Looking at it from a broader background, claims that Afghanistan is at ‘civilised crossroads’ and how important it is to China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ are just
illusions behind closed doors. In fact, since the great geographical discovery at the end of the 15th century led to the great shift in international seaborne trade routes, Afghanistan has been completely marginalised in the international trading system. The increasingly closed, regressive, and accelerated tribalisation of Afghan society is largely due to this. The development of modern rail/air/sea transportation technologies has not changed the trend of Afghanistan’s marginalisation in the international trading system. On the contrary, it is exacerbating this trend to a considerable extent. Therefore, in terms of economic significance, Afghanistan is insignificant to the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.