What should be our strategy? There is complex layering with pak and chin involved in Afghanistan.
First protect interests and ensure security of country...next take advantage of the current situation. So what could come out right for India that could help achieve both these objectives?
Let me make a very strong statement which may contradict my previous comments but I am simply reading GOI manual here.
Afghanistan and Pakistan are not connected to our national interests. Strategically they do not exists for us. Pakistan has been slapped so badly that now they openly say that we will first focus on our economy and then try to engage given if there is change in political guard in India.
Kashmir is monkey trap that will make sure they do not prosper but remain a paranoid security state.
Current government has decoupled these rats after giving them quite a long rope including our PM visited them in-person and allowed them to do so called investigation inside one of our key Air base.
We have few back channel links but they are mostly for VIP security and deliberate leaks if their spies are caught crossing certain lines or sniffing something which they shouldn’t.
The ceasefire we have extended after their request has many clues how we already knew what Americans and Taliban negotiated in UAE. It works for us as well and there is nothing to lose our sleep over it because we know their address.
Taliban is phenomenon which our policy makers think is beyond their controls or they simply do not want to handle it. We know Taliban will be contained within Afghanistan boundaries for a very long run and they will extend their borders back into Pakistan and render those areas poor in every HDI marker that will further become a net loss to whatever Pakistan earns.
Last but not least India has deep pockets to play rogue regional games but we have no desire to let foreign powers patronise or get an excuse to interfere.
Our game is in to lead by example and create and moral paradigm which will eventually make us a regional power that can anchor the whole region. Pakistanis understand it that is why they play indifferent or crib on our achievements and Pimp China into the region to replace us.
Now coming back to China we have quite good assessment of our level and we are marching with a good speed to cover the gap. Till then we are going to restraint and keep playing this game of diminishing returns by allowing them poach whatever they can. Our strategic relationship with any nation have to pass the test of trade viability and mutual respect. We won’t feed the blackmailing dogs and create unsustainable military alliances with anyone.
