Folks, at this point, the situation still hasn't stabilized in Afghanistan. Do remember that the Paktia and Helmandi factions of the Taliban are still engaged in bitter rivalries and had set their differences aside for the sole purpose of driving foreign forces out. Without an external enemy to bind them together, Pashtuns have historically fought along tribal/factional lines. Whether the Taliban itself will remain together is yet to be seen. Guys like Ahmed Shah Massoud, Ata Muhammad Noor and Ismail Khan fought against the Soviets and led the fall of Kabul in the 90's, but later switched sides and formed the Northern Alliance when they felt they weren't getting a fair deal. Again, still too early to comment on anything.
Another interesting thing to be noticed is the lack of war crimes by the Talibs this time around. In the 90's, massacres and summary executions were the norm, but there is a weird scenario here where none of those have happened(yet). Possibly due to gaining international legitimacy, as was said by Shri Jaishankar a month-odd back.
TTP and AQIS fighters have also been released from Bagram, and the TTP has given a call for an independent "Pashtun" country in Khyber Pakthunkhwa. Add to this that ETIM fighters, Chechens and Uzbeks are also being freed up as Afghanistan falls. One wonders where they will go next....
I don't think anyone should remain under the delusion that the Talibs have changed. This act being put up right now is just a facade, as their fundamental ideological mindset still hasn't changed. Case in point:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjo...t-just-to-afghanistan-but-all-over-the-world/
Other things that have been happening under the radar, are the facts that Ghani was turned away from Tajikistan(?). For a country which vehemently fought against the Talibs in the 90's and supported the Northern Alliance, this is an interesting turn. Wonder whether this rather big decision was made in Tajikistan or elsewhere in Moscow.
The ramifications of this on the TTP are to be seen, but based on what we can glean from the reactions of the inbreds across the border, they are seen as scared shitless, thinking of what happens once the Talib govt stablizes, the TTP reorganizes, and the refugees begin to pour in. The Paki reaction till now, has been one of differentiating a "good" and "bad" Talib, whatever that means, along with the Paki military being put on a state of alert, hardly anything to do when your supposed buddies have just come to power.
Also, highly recommend everyone read this thread,
On the future of India-Pak ties, a lot of y'all have been saying that the LoC ceasefire was a Paki move to consolidate their Western Front. While this maybe true, it has also allowed the Indian Army to divert significant resources to the Chinese border, and may have been a deal, with the Americans giving the Pakis a quiet LoC, in exchange for allowing US Forces to get out of Afg., with India getting US support against the Chinese in return.
Expect a spike in attacks in Kashmir from now. While it will definitely not be as bad as the 90's, there will be a spike in attacks, and couple this with a pretty strong govt. in the Centre, there will be retaliation against Pak, with there also being the possibility of escalation reaching greater heights, quite possibly to a situation like Kargil again.
