The downside for india of this taliban victory is huge. This is a big shot in the arm to all jihadis the world over and Afghanistan will almost certainly be ground zero for all terrorist organizations to set up camp. While I don't buy all the dhoti shivering about Afghanistan Mujahideen in Kashmir, make no mistake - it will be attempted and the possibility of more weapons bding pumped in, including RPG's and more is real. The weapons cache that pakistan and the terrorists will now get their hands upon is substantial. That will include everything that the Americans supplied to the Afghanistan army.
On a larger scale, this is an unmitigated disaster for anyone thinking US will stand against China, either in defence of Taiwan or in a QUAD situation. While I believe the US will be likely forced to defend Taiwan, it's reputation has been tarnished badly. India would have to watch very carefully, the Chinese now share an even more close interest to have Kashmir heating up and if the Americans were forced to retreat after a couple of thousands dead in Afghanistan, it will be asked and wondered if the Americans will risk exponentially higher casualties in a conflict with China.
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1. This Islamist victory will be "romanticized", serves great propaganda value as in Allah being with pious believers & will be used liberally in upcoming recruitment worldwide.
2. This Islamist victory will give more "moral momentum" & probably "physical momentum" to other ongoing Islamist/Kaffir wars.
3. ISI having gained strategic depth might want to push battle hardened weapons rich terrorists across, but i am willing to bet that they have gamed such a scenario will invite punitive Indian retaliation as India will not wait for a cost to be incurred to it in Kashmir. So the scenario of several dozens or hundreds of baccha baazzis at the LOC might not become a reality.
4. ISI will be looking to infiltrate "specialists" in small numbers via LOC who can be activated at times like an before an election or a spectacular attack on an economic asset.
5. Mood is "upbeat" in all Global Ummah channels & even in desi nanha wannabe talibs. This victory will give a boost to home grown varieties as well.
6. There will be more vocal global Ummah/Jhollachap shrilling on Kashmir in coming months, not that it matters to us at all.
7. Thing need to be done is to strengthen LOC grid & have more eyes on internal ones.