Bottom Line first- The US delivered Afg to Taliban & PAK in a plate. Like all Afghans I am unable to sleep, eat and function as a normal being these days. The word to describe my feelings doesn't exist in the dictionary. Here is what I thnk. A thread:
1) The final decision about Afg was made 3 years ago. What? Yes. The US will bring back Taliban into power. Why? US global priorities changed and Afg didn't fall into those. How? Through the Doha and whatever happened in those 3 yrs.
2) Why not just leave? Bcz the end game had to be secured 1st. Wht? No future threat to US et al..from AFG. Who can guarantee tht? An entity that has the ability to stamp its authority all over the territory. Wasn't the AFG gov supposed to do that? Yes but then NO.
3) How to replace AFG gov? Grand strategy for that was to encircle Kabul militarily and negotiate Kabul on Taliban Terms. Diplomacy and military works/worked in tandem with each other at intl/regional and domestic level. NATO, Troika & local power brokers did the diplomacy labor.
4) Why not take Kabul militarily too? To save the face for everything that follows. What? removal of sanctions, release of prisoners, international recognition, avoid & leave no room for tangible future resistance. How? power was negotiate albeit on Taliban terms.
5) Military Strategy: First erode the space the AFG government/potential resistance can fall back into. Where is that? The north. Second: Exhaust the AFG army in the north, cut land routes and fall back spaces to every remaining provinces. Result: The Mass Surrenders.
6) AFG gov and Taliban represent two different and opposing value systems. Why did the US choose the other? Bcz values (HRs, women, free speech bla bla bla) is a commodity to serve imperial interests. If you believe otherwise, avoid facing Afghans for sometime.
7) How will transfer take place in Kabul? 3K+ US & UK military will ensure things wait until KBL is negotiated. Gov resigns, transition gov fully Taliban controlled will be formed.
8) Wht is is in it for me? Afg- ??? US et al- The end game described earlier Pakistan- The World Cup of this game. Iran- Happy with US going out of its backyar China- Serves its geopolitical and economic interests Russia- reduced threats to its zone of influence (CA).
9) US complemented all this with a well played out StratCom responsible for narrative building all along. look at the number of Afg experts suddenly blooming out of nowhere in every public platform.
10) If you wonder why the whole country fell so fast? US wanted to get things done till 9/11 anniv. it ws publicly promised that attacking urban centers is red line and US will conduct bombing. Remind me if you know abt one that made a difference.
11) all in all US tied AFG army’s hands, turned away and let every piece of this game fall in place.
