Sukhoi PAK FA

gadeshi

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Have you seen the price of oil? It isn't very high. Most of OPEC nations will be bankrupt in less than a decade at current rates. Other commodities are also at low prices thanks to China.
So you are a retard...
Oil and gas are 65% of Russian export, but only 30% of GDP. All the other 70% is high tech, heavy industry, consumer goods and agriculture.

Su-57 project is about to be complete with serial production start in 2018.
So 6.7 Billions are not begging, but Indian payment for education :)

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Armand2REP

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So you are a retard...
Oil and gas are 65% of Russian export, but only 30% of GDP. All the other 70% is high tech, heavy industry, consumer goods and agriculture.

Su-57 project is about to be complete with serial production start in 2018.
So 6.7 Billions are not begging, but Indian payment for education :)

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Are you pretending you actually know how the Federal budget works? Russian taxes are low because they get most revenue from taxes on oil and gas exports. It has everything to do with their defense budget. $6.7 billion is begging because they aren't even getting the engine until 2025.
 

Vijyes

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FOREX is for paying trade balances so they don't get screwed in currency dips, not for paying defence budgets. They have a sovereign wealth fund but it has been declining with the low price of oil. Lower revenues, the high cost of nuclear modernisation and replacing the Ukrainian industrial base is eating their defense budgets.

http://www.iiss.org/en/militarybala...edcc/march-f0a5/russias-defence-spending-7de6
Rubles can be printed and taxes raised if necessary. One must understand that high income does not necessarily mean that country is doing well. For example, US has 300 million population and uses 20million barrels of oil a day which is about 20x159 = 318 million litres of oil per day. What the hell is one average American using 1 litre of oil per day for? Is it really useful?

Rich country could simply squander wealth while Russia is using it prudently. Russia is unlikely to ever be in trouble
 

gadeshi

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Are you pretending you actually know how the Federal budget works? Russian taxes are low because they get most revenue from taxes on oil and gas exports. It has everything to do with their defense budget. $6.7 billion is begging because they aren't even getting the engine until 2025.
Yes, I know how Russian budget actually works in difference from you.
It's because I have financial education with a master degree and can read some budget documents published on govt portals :)
Item 30 is ready for flight tests on Il-76LL flying lab this year. The first Su-57 with new engine will fly in 2020.
Americans spent 17 years to create F-119 with a tremendous budget spents, Russians have created it for less than 7 years and another 3 will be needed for production status.

If you don't know how the things work, why do you wright a BS to be a forum-wide clawn?

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Armand2REP

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Yes, I know how Russian budget actually works in difference from you.
It's because I have financial education with a master degree and can read some budget documents published on govt portals :)
Item 30 is ready for flight tests on Il-76LL flying lab this year. The first Su-57 with new engine will fly in 2020.
Americans spent 17 years to create F-119 with a tremendous budget spents, Russians have created it for less than 7 years and another 3 will be needed for production status.

If you don't know how the things work, why do you wright a BS to be a forum-wide clawn?

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Excuse me Nobel Laureate, trying to beat me over the head with anonymous degrees has as much scholastic weight as a feather. You can read that the Russian economy is net negative over the last 5 years. You can read their sovereign wealth fund is depleting. You can also read that defense and R&D spending is going down. Lastly, you can read that most Federal revenue comes from oil and gas which is way down. Unlike China, Russia doesn't pull money out of thin air. They actually have decent accounting standards.

Izdeliye 30 time table has slipped due to problems with the FADEC. According to Izvestia induction is from 2025-2027. Feel free to ignore the warning signs. We only have the last 26 years of history to go by.

Call me a clown all you want, you still haven't answered the $6.7 billion question. Why does Russia need India to pay that upfront? It was $3 billion just two years ago.
 

Vijyes

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Excuse me Nobel Laureate, trying to beat me over the head with anonymous degrees has as much scholastic weight as a feather. You can read that the Russian economy is net negative over the last 5 years. You can read their sovereign wealth fund is depleting. You can also read that defense and R&D spending is going down. Lastly, you can read that most Federal revenue comes from oil and gas which is way down. Unlike China, Russia doesn't pull money out of thin air. They actually have decent accounting standards.

Izdeliye 30 time table has slipped due to problems with the FADEC. According to Izvestia induction is from 2025-2027. Feel free to ignore the warning signs. We only have the last 26 years of history to go by.

Call me a clown all you want, you still haven't answered the $6.7 billion question. Why does Russia need India to pay that upfront? It was $3 billion just two years ago.
Russia is doing business. Just because Russia has money doesn't mean it is going to give things for free. Russia is not demanding India to give 7 billion but just keeping the entry fee at 7 billion.

Any country can pull out money from thin air and so can Russia. As I said, the oil prices were 25 dollars in 2006 and compared to that we have 50 dollars now, after 10 years which is a decent hike of 100%. There is no reason to say oil prices are down. It is just relatively down WHEN compared to 2008-2013 prices.

As I said, if any day Russia wants forex, it will just dig out Iron, Anthracite coal (Russian coal is of highest quality), gold, gas and phosphorus. Demand for gas, phosphorus, iron, coal will always be there. Moreover, Russian ores are of the highest grade and hence very cheap to extract. Don't think that Russia is running out of money. In fact, as USA is dependent on oil money, if Russia allies with Arabs and helps them sell oil in any other currency, US economy will be hit
 

Armand2REP

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Russia is doing business. Just because Russia has money doesn't mean it is going to give things for free. Russia is not demanding India to give 7 billion but just keeping the entry fee at 7 billion.

Any country can pull out money from thin air and so can Russia. As I said, the oil prices were 25 dollars in 2006 and compared to that we have 50 dollars now, after 10 years which is a decent hike of 100%. There is no reason to say oil prices are down. It is just relatively down WHEN compared to 2008-2013 prices.

As I said, if any day Russia wants forex, it will just dig out Iron, Anthracite coal (Russian coal is of highest quality), gold, gas and phosphorus. Demand for gas, phosphorus, iron, coal will always be there. Moreover, Russian ores are of the highest grade and hence very cheap to extract. Don't think that Russia is running out of money. In fact, as USA is dependent on oil money, if Russia allies with Arabs and helps them sell oil in any other currency, US economy will be hit
In 2006 the price of Brent crude was between $63-74, in 2008 it was $132 when Russia started making its grandiose plans. Now it is $50 but Russia needs a price of $68 to balance the books. They are running a 3.7% deficit, it doesn't sound like much to us, you would expect them to do a QE but they can't because they are tied to the petrol dollar. It would cause massive inflation as they tried in the 90s. Instead they are cutting pensions and social services while dipping into the reserve fund.

If Russia starts flooding the market with commodities, guess what happens to the price of those commodities... it goes down. They can extract all they want, supply side economics dictates they will not gain any more money with increased production as the law of diminishing returns takes effect. The USA is the reason the price of crude is so low with all of their fracking. I do agree, getting the petrol dollar to another currency would certainly help Russia have more control over their currency and give them the ability to go on a debt binge without inflationary pressures.

India has to look at this $6.7 billion entry fee pragmatically. What are you going to get for that enormous amount of money? Four prototypes and guarantees of what work share? Russia is only planning on buying 60 units and they will have most of them before India can work on it. Only two years ago the fee was $3 billion and now the cost escalation is $6.7bln... it is like another Gorshkov scandal in the making.
 

Vijyes

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In 2006 the price of Brent crude was between $63-74, in 2008 it was $132 when Russia started making its grandiose plans. Now it is $50 but Russia needs a price of $68 to balance the books. They are running a 3.7% deficit, it doesn't sound like much to us, you would expect them to do a QE but they can't because they are tied to the petrol dollar. It would cause massive inflation as they tried in the 90s. Instead they are cutting pensions and social services while dipping into the reserve fund.

If Russia starts flooding the market with commodities, guess what happens to the price of those commodities... it goes down. They can extract all they want, supply side economics dictates they will not gain any more money with increased production as the law of diminishing returns takes effect. The USA is the reason the price of crude is so low with all of their fracking. I do agree, getting the petrol dollar to another currency would certainly help Russia have more control over their currency and give them the ability to go on a debt binge without inflationary pressures.

India has to look at this $6.7 billion entry fee pragmatically. What are you going to get for that enormous amount of money? Four prototypes and guarantees of what work share? Russia is only planning on buying 60 units and they will have most of them before India can work on it. Only two years ago the fee was $3 billion and now the cost escalation is $6.7bln... it is like another Gorshkov scandal in the making.
Crude oil in the beginning was 35 dollars (nit 25 or 63). As I said, Russia can raise tax on production or income or raise fiscal deficit. Russia is food surplus, resource surplus and is insulated from external shocks or international prices due to its self sufficiency. The concept of inflation is highly inappropriate to be used in this context. If a country is producing everything on its own, there can be no inflation unless there is some event like population rise. Yes, it will depreciate Rubles according wrt to foreign currency if the QE measures is much higher than Forex surplus can offset. But, Russia is not facing internal crisis for that.

By the way, USA produces only 10 million barrels of oil per day while consumes 20 million barrels a day. USA is simply printing money and treasury bills to buy oil. I am not sure how long it can run like a black hole that only sucks in but doesn't give anything back.

I never said that India should go for PAK-FA. In fact, I have ranted for a few pages before that India must not go for it. So, it is not correct to ask me to explain why India should pay 7 billion for PAK-FA.
 

Armand2REP

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Crude oil in the beginning was 35 dollars (nit 25 or 63). As I said, Russia can raise tax on production or income or raise fiscal deficit. Russia is food surplus, resource surplus and is insulated from external shocks or international prices due to its self sufficiency. The concept of inflation is highly inappropriate to be used in this context. If a country is producing everything on its own, there can be no inflation unless there is some event like population rise. Yes, it will depreciate Rubles according wrt to foreign currency if the QE measures is much higher than Forex surplus can offset. But, Russia is not facing internal crisis for that.

By the way, USA produces only 10 million barrels of oil per day while consumes 20 million barrels a day. USA is simply printing money and treasury bills to buy oil. I am not sure how long it can run like a black hole that only sucks in but doesn't give anything back.

I never said that India should go for PAK-FA. In fact, I have ranted for a few pages before that India must not go for it. So, it is not correct to ask me to explain why India should pay 7 billion for PAK-FA.
Russia is self sufficient in raw materials, not so much in finished goods. They have been importing so much their trade surplus is the lowest in 14 years. Russia's external debt is nearly three times its internal debt which makes it's free-float currency highly susceptible to inflationary pressures. Russia's FOREX is not available to offset budgets, it is only enough to cover its balance of trade. The reason it rises is because Russia is importing more. Russia will not have an inflation problem as long as it does not increase its M2 money supply without sufficient growth to cover it. Russia has not been growing so they don't have the room to print money.

USA is only in a strong position as long as the majority of the world sees them that way. Fiat currency is only worth anything if people have faith in it.
 

Bahamut

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They have been importing so much their trade surplus is the lowest in 14 years.
That no is partly caused by the decrease in rubble value which lead to decrease in the net value of the product in dollars while there was no increase in the quantity of those exports .Their import decease during the entire time , it is just recently that the value of their exports dropped
 

Vijyes

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That no is partly caused by the decrease in rubble value which lead to decrease in the net value of the product in dollars while there was no increase in the quantity of those exports .Their import decease during the entire time , it is just recently that the value of their exports dropped
Lets move this to chit chat thread as it is derailing PAK-FA discussion. Thanks
 

gadeshi

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T-50-3 (1-03) and T-50-4 (1-04) returned from Akhtubinsk to Zhukovskiy:

 

Armand2REP

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And this one too..... Seems like Russians have progressed well in GaN.
Every Russian AESA set so far has used GaAs modules. Of course they want to get GaN. It looks like they haven't been able to get a working GaN set so they are using aluminum in it.
 

gadeshi

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Every Russian AESA set so far has used GaAs modules. Of course they want to get GaN. It looks like they haven't been able to get a working GaN set so they are using aluminum in it.
N036 Belka is GaN based full digital AESA (DAESA), so like Zhuk-AM (flat LTCC modules), A-100 Premier AWACS system and several land and sea based radars.
GaN is a current and nearest past for Russia.

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Armand2REP

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N036 Belka is GaN based full digital AESA (DAESA), so like Zhuk-AM (flat LTCC modules), A-100 Premier AWACS system and several land and sea based radars.
GaN is a current and nearest past for Russia.

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That is pretty funny. Russia has yet to provide a combat ready GaAs set and they have suddenly leap-frogged everyone? Tell that to the Egyptians who ordered MiG-35s but couldn't get them because the magical Russian AESA didn't work.
 

gadeshi

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That is pretty funny. Russia has yet to provide a combat ready GaAs set and they have suddenly leap-frogged everyone? Tell that to the Egyptians who ordered MiG-35s but couldn't get them because the magical Russian AESA didn't work.
Egypt has ordered MiG-29M/M2 with Zhuk-ME from the beginning.
Russians have mastered GaAs tech since 1982 for Zaslon PESA radar for MiG-31. It was world's first GaAs based radar. It was distant past.
N036 Belka GaN DAESA radar for T-50 is completely ready and is in serial prodiction from late 2015 on GRPZ (Ryazan).
There are plenty of GaAs AESAs for ships, AD and land forces for several years.
Now NIIP concentrates on Niobium Nitride based TRMs for ROFAR.

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Steven Rogers

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Egypt has ordered MiG-29M/M2 with Zhuk-ME from the beginning.
Russians have mastered GaAs tech since 1982 for Zaslon PESA radar for MiG-31. It was world's first GaAs based radar. It was distant past.
N036 Belka GaN DAESA radar for T-50 is completely ready and is in serial prodiction from late 2015 on GRPZ (Ryazan).
There are plenty of GaAs AESAs for ships, AD and land forces for several years.
Now NIIP concentrates on Niobium Nitride based TRMs for ROFAR.

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Niobium Nitride is a superconductors, to use it in ROFAR radar you need to cool it upto - 257 degree Celsius. And then make sure it doesn't heat up again otherwise you will have a radar which is non functional after a little time of operations.
 

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