For the existing Russian Airforce - almost half of the Mig-29 fleet, almost whole of Mig31 fleet, almost the whole of S-27 fleet has already seen or will be seeing major upgrades.My two penny worth opinion :
The IAF is trying to do a Su 30 MKI repeat on FGFA where they will go for 56 PAKFA and then give their inputs to Sukhoi/HAL to tweek it and et-voila... you'll have a MKIéd PAKFA or FGFA in our parlance!!
I think there would be a return clause somewhere in there so that we can return the T-50 / PAKFA to the Russians the same way we returned the Su-30 M/Mk.
Bearing the above in mind I have objections to the title of the above article.... IAF has not halved the FGFA order but just ordered 56 T-50's to test and get a feel off so that they can lay down the essentials for FGFA!! SMART MOVE I SAY AND STUPID CAPTION OF THE TITLE!!
Then there is a whole lot of production of new orders of completely new types of these.
Then Russian AF has declared that they will buy as many PAKFA as the Russian aviation industry can produce.
In all this I don't understand how and how many can the Russians supply before 2020. If the 56 are to be the order size of PAKFA along the logic that was used for initial squad worth of Su-30 then either Russians have to really ramp up production. Alternatively there can be some other manner of production (Make in India), but that is highly unlikely given our own difficulties in production.
If the PAKFA has to come on returnable basis then they cannot be more than 20 or so.
Besides you cannot really bet on IAF leadership. They have played their politics publicly while protecting their self-interests for so long that they are masters of this by now. This is an oblique way of saying we will not hesitate to jeopardize the FGFA, unless we are given more than just 36 Rafales.
Reality is we just do not have the budget for both Rafales and FGFA. The 5th Gen is already upon us.
Modi has bitten the bullet by ordering 36 which coincidentally, is also the number of immediate requirements. I believe Dassault wants to force open the door for a fuller production plan for 36+90 with a different & higher unit price allowing itself a new production line in a third world country (front ended through RIL).
My guess is that the best way to go about improving the capability of the IAF is by upgrading the in blocks the Su-30MKIs that we already have. For example we can have 40 MKIs with IrbisE, 60+ more with Byelka and leave 60+ for retirements with BARS stage itself and keep operating latest productions with BARS till late in the day such that eventually they are upgraded with the radar that comes after Byelka. I mean, just as my 2 paisa.
We are wasting our time with Rafale. Just buy off the shelf the initial 36 and be done with it. Pump all resources into LCA Mk-2 and Uttam AESA. Seek Saab help in production line set up if we have to provided Saab helps with an offer for production technologies that help push up the production quantities. If the offer is merely of quality improvements, then simply dunk that too. In terms of quality there is little that ADA+HAL cannot do by there own efforts and that can only be sourced from Saab.
So its not as simple as finding funds. Funds can be found but what is the item on offer. If the offer is merely of Rafales then there is only a little bang that our mega-bucks are giving us.