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Stratfor's New Chinese ICBM Range Map
Stratfor has released an updated map of the ranges of Chinese ICBMs launched from northeastern Heilongjiang Province. I will discuss the ICBMs listed on Stratfor's map.
How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor
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China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China has two brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31 ICBM[2] located at:
1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)
China's DF-31A ICBM can reach every major American city except Miami, Florida.
China has seven brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM[3] located at:
1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi
China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.
China has eight brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:
1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)
China's DF-41 ICBM can also reach all of the United States.
China probably has four brigades of the solid-fuel DF-41 ICBM[5] located at:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
d. There appears to be a fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade on the Chinese Tibetan Plateau (see picture below) in Tibet Province, China.
The total number of thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs can be calculated.
DF-31: 2 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 24 DF-31 ICBMs
DF-31A: 7 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 84 DF-31A ICBMs
DF-5A/B: 8 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs
DF-41: 4 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 48 DF-41 ICBMs
The DF-31 can only carry a single warhead. Thus, there are 24 thermonuclear warheads carried on the DF-31 ICBMs.
We should assume all DF-31A ICBMs are being upgraded to the DF-31B 3-MIRV variant.[6] Each DF-31A/B can carry three MIRVs. 84 DF-31A/B ICBMs x 3 = 252 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-5A missiles are being upgraded to DF-5B 8-MIRV missiles.[7] 96 DF-5B x 8 MIRVs = 768 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs on each missile.[8] 48 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs= 480 thermonuclear warheads.
The current total is 1,524 thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs (which does not include SLBMs).
I think the technical definition of a re-load for an ICBM in a silo is that another ICBM can be fired within 24 hours.
If you accept China has one re-load ICBM per TEL or Silo then you have to double China's total to 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
Does 3,048 land-based Chinese thermonuclear warheads seem like a lot? It is important to remember that China detonated its first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb in 1967. That was 50 years ago. China's economy is huge and it had 50 years to build 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
References:
1. Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) - GlobalSecurity.org
2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia
3. China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces
Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations
Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.
As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades.
4. DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists
PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia (54th and 55th bases)
MULTIMEGATON WEAPONS | Johnston Archive
5. China May Have Deployed Missiles Not Far From Border With Russia | Sputnik News
6. Confirmed: China is Upgrading ICBMs With Multiple Warheads | The Diplomat
"Beijing has been retrofitting single-warhead ICBMs with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
For the past several months, China has been upgrading single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), according to U.S. intelligence agencies, The Washington Times reports.
'China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,' the head of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Cecil D. Haney said in a January 22 speech."
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China puts on show of force with DF-31B mobile ICBM missile test | South China Morning Post
"The People's Liberation Army launched a Dongfeng-31B on September 25 from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre - also known as the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre - in Shanxi province, according to US-based online newspaper The Washington Free Beacon.
The DF-31B is an upgraded version of the DF-31A and the launch was at least the second time the PLA's Second Artillery Corps had tested a DF-31 missile in the past three months. In late July, the PLA conducted a flight test of a DF-31A in what was the fourth known flight test of that missile in two years.
...
'The DF-31A was designed to carry three warheads. I think the new DF-31B is possibly a multi-warhead version with higher accuracy,' Wong said."
7. China adds warheads to older DF-5s | The Washington Times
"China’s military has begun retrofitting single-warhead DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles, according to U.S. defense officials. The upgrading of the DF-5 missiles with multiple warheads, known as MIRVs, was detected by U.S. intelligence agencies within the past several months.
The addition of three warheads on the long-range missiles marks a significant shift for China’s nuclear arsenal that is increasing in both warheads and missile systems under a major buildup."
8. DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."
Stratfor has released an updated map of the ranges of Chinese ICBMs launched from northeastern Heilongjiang Province. I will discuss the ICBMs listed on Stratfor's map.
How Far China's Nuclear Capabilities Stretch | Stratfor
----------
China's DF-31 ICBM can only reach Alaska and Hawaii. "The United States currently fields 26 interceptors at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California."[1] We expect China to use the DF-31 ICBM to neutralize the anti-ballistic missile interceptor base at Fort Greely in Alaska.
China has two brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31 ICBM[2] located at:
1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)
China's DF-31A ICBM can reach every major American city except Miami, Florida.
China has seven brigades of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM[3] located at:
1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi
China's DF-5A/B ICBM can reach all of the United States.
China has eight brigades of the liquid-fuel DF-5A/B ICBM[4] located at:
1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)
China's DF-41 ICBM can also reach all of the United States.
China probably has four brigades of the solid-fuel DF-41 ICBM[5] located at:
a. Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China
b. Xinyang City, Henan Province in central China
c. Xinjiang Province in northwestern China (deployment soon)
d. There appears to be a fourth DF-41 ICBM brigade on the Chinese Tibetan Plateau (see picture below) in Tibet Province, China.
The total number of thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs can be calculated.
DF-31: 2 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 24 DF-31 ICBMs
DF-31A: 7 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 84 DF-31A ICBMs
DF-5A/B: 8 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs
DF-41: 4 brigades x 12 missiles per brigade = 48 DF-41 ICBMs
The DF-31 can only carry a single warhead. Thus, there are 24 thermonuclear warheads carried on the DF-31 ICBMs.
We should assume all DF-31A ICBMs are being upgraded to the DF-31B 3-MIRV variant.[6] Each DF-31A/B can carry three MIRVs. 84 DF-31A/B ICBMs x 3 = 252 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-5A missiles are being upgraded to DF-5B 8-MIRV missiles.[7] 96 DF-5B x 8 MIRVs = 768 thermonuclear warheads.
The DF-41 ICBM carries 10 MIRVs on each missile.[8] 48 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs= 480 thermonuclear warheads.
The current total is 1,524 thermonuclear warheads on Chinese ICBMs (which does not include SLBMs).
I think the technical definition of a re-load for an ICBM in a silo is that another ICBM can be fired within 24 hours.
If you accept China has one re-load ICBM per TEL or Silo then you have to double China's total to 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
Does 3,048 land-based Chinese thermonuclear warheads seem like a lot? It is important to remember that China detonated its first 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb in 1967. That was 50 years ago. China's economy is huge and it had 50 years to build 3,048 land-based thermonuclear warheads.
References:
1. Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) - GlobalSecurity.org
2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia
3. China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces
Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations
Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.
As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades.
4. DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists
PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia (54th and 55th bases)
MULTIMEGATON WEAPONS | Johnston Archive
5. China May Have Deployed Missiles Not Far From Border With Russia | Sputnik News
6. Confirmed: China is Upgrading ICBMs With Multiple Warheads | The Diplomat
"Beijing has been retrofitting single-warhead ICBMs with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
For the past several months, China has been upgrading single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), according to U.S. intelligence agencies, The Washington Times reports.
'China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,' the head of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Cecil D. Haney said in a January 22 speech."
----------
China puts on show of force with DF-31B mobile ICBM missile test | South China Morning Post
"The People's Liberation Army launched a Dongfeng-31B on September 25 from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Centre - also known as the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre - in Shanxi province, according to US-based online newspaper The Washington Free Beacon.
The DF-31B is an upgraded version of the DF-31A and the launch was at least the second time the PLA's Second Artillery Corps had tested a DF-31 missile in the past three months. In late July, the PLA conducted a flight test of a DF-31A in what was the fourth known flight test of that missile in two years.
...
'The DF-31A was designed to carry three warheads. I think the new DF-31B is possibly a multi-warhead version with higher accuracy,' Wong said."
7. China adds warheads to older DF-5s | The Washington Times
"China’s military has begun retrofitting single-warhead DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles, according to U.S. defense officials. The upgrading of the DF-5 missiles with multiple warheads, known as MIRVs, was detected by U.S. intelligence agencies within the past several months.
The addition of three warheads on the long-range missiles marks a significant shift for China’s nuclear arsenal that is increasing in both warheads and missile systems under a major buildup."
8. DF-41 | Deagel
"In July 2014 China officially confirmed the development of the DF-41 next generation ICBM with a range of 12,000 kilometers and 10 MIRVed warheads as a direct response to US missile defenses such as THAAD."
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