Sri Lanka snubs India opens port to Chinese submarine again

[LETHALFORCE]

NEW DELHI: Despite India's strong reservations about a Chinese nuclear submarine at the Colombo port in September, the government has learned that Sri Lanka has permitted another Chinese attack submarine to dock at a Lankan port.

According to the information received, the second docking is likely to take place very soon.

The presence of Chinese submarines across Palk Straits has deeply disturbed the government which is making another call to Lankan authorities, this time to convey strong displeasure. The news of a second Chinese submarine docking in Sri Lanka comes days after the visit of Vietnam PM Nguyen Tan Dung to India and in complete disregard of India's message to Lankan defence secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa earlier this month.

The Chinese fleet of submarines, both diesel and nuclear-powered (of which three can fire ballistic missiles), represent some of Beijing's most offensive military capabilities and have been the focus of international media when one of them propelled through Indian Ocean waters for the first time earlier this year, making its way to the Persian Gulf.


A Chinese navy submarine attends an international fleet review to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army Navy on April 23, 2009 off Qingdao in Shandong Province. (Getty Images file photo)

In a recent report, Wall Street Journal described the Chinese submarine fleet as Beijing's most significant military challenge in the region. And for them to surface at Lankan ports brings alive some of New Delhi's worst fears of China's expanding presence in India's neighbourhood.

Sri Lanka's assurance — even from the highest level — that China has no military presence in the island nation does not inspire confidence. Consider the following:

* Coinciding with the election of Mahinda Rajapaksa as president in 2005, assistance from China has grown manifold and in infrastructure.

* Of the totals assistance of $5.056 billion extended to Lanka by China from 1971 to 2012, around 94% or $4.761 billion came between 2005 and 2012. In the past two years (2012-2014), China has committed another $2.18 billion, mostly as loans with a high rate of interest.


A Chinese navy submarine docked on the Huangpu river. (Getty Images file photo)

* With its "no strings" overseas-aid policy, China has replaced Japan as the No. 1 donor to Sri Lanka.

* India believes that the Chinese have been favoured despite the commercial and economic viability of their projects being suspect. Traffic generated at Hambantota port and Matara international airport, both built by China, are said to be far below expectations.

* The Rajapaksa regime has not been deterred by the poor execution of projects by Chinese companies. One glaring example is the $1.35 billion Norochcholai coal power project which Sri Lankan authorities failed to rectify and have now asked the Chinese to operate it. Poor quality of equipment was said to be one of the reasons for the breakdown.

What seems to have angered New Delhi is that the permission for docking another nuclear sub comes even after India conveyed to defence secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who is also brother of the president, that it had serious reservations about the Colombo docking on September 15.

This Colombo stop for the sub in September came while President Pranab Mukherjee was touring Vietnam and when Indian and Chinese troops were locked in a face-off at Chumar in southeastern Ladakh. China later said the sub had docked in Colombo on its way to the Gulf of Aden.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...nese-submarine-again/articleshow/45008757.cms

 

[pmaitra]

So much, after India giving the cold shoulder to the LTTE.

Instead of going on an arms import spree, India needs to think about re-kindling the militancy in North Sri Lanka, and keep it boiling, just enough to keep the PLAAN's forays close to India in check. Only then will Sri Lanka listen. Diplomatic pressure only works when issued from a position of strength.

On a slightly related note, India should build up its naval forces and have a plan to occupy (and potentially annex) the Maldives in case a foreign power tries to set up a Naval Base there.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Enter the Dragon | The Sunday Times Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan view

 

[Dovah]

Sri Lanka seems to be a lost cause as far as allies are concerned.

But do the Lankans really think that the Chinese will be able to protect them from all the way across the Ocean if they piss us off enough?

A few Chinese subs will not be able to protect them but it will give us a reason to attack.

 

[Razor]

Sri Lanka seems to be a lost cause as far as allies are concerned.

But do the Lankans really think that the Chinese will be able to protect them from all the way across the Ocean if they piss us off enough?

A few Chinese subs will not be able to protect them but it will give us a reason to attack.

SL will be snuffed off in a few weeks in case of war, if the Indian military command is strong and political will exists.

But I don' think SL is going for open confrontation with India.
It is probably using the China card so that India will not dominate it completely. Both SL and PRC will be gauging India's reactions.
Besides the the Chinese will bring in lots of investment.

Nations like NP, BH, BD and SL are supposed to be allies. All of them seem to be slipping away for some time now.
I wonder if India actually has a strategy for its neighborhood.
"Strategy w/o tactics is the longest route to victory. Tactics w/o strategy is the noise before defeat." --- Sun Tzu.

 

[Dovah]

SL will be snuffed off in a few weeks in case of war, if the Indian military command is strong and political will exists.

But I don' think SL is going for open confrontation with India.
It is probably using the China card so that India will not dominate it completely. Both SL and PRC will be gauging India's reactions.
Besides the the Chinese will bring in lots of investment.

Nations like NP, BH, BD and SL are supposed to be allies. All of them seem to be slipping away for some time now.
I wonder if India actually has a strategy for its neighborhood.
"Strategy w/o tactic is the longest route to victory. Tactic w/o strategy is the noise before defeat." --- Sun Tzu.

Giving Chinese subs docking priveleges mght not seem a big deal now, but if there are hostilities between Indian and China on the Northern border Lankans should pay the price, more so if they allow China a base there.

The thing is, nobody is dominating Lanka, hell we even turned against the LTTE to placate these guys. Lankans like Pakis suffer from an inferiority complex when it comes to a large country like India being their neighbor and cozying up to China at the expense of India will cause them more harm than good.

 

[Razor]

Giving Chinese subs docking privileges mght not seem a big deal now, but if there are hostilities between Indian and China on the Northern border Lankans should pay the price, more so if they allow China a base there.

If there is a China base in SL, then Ind mil has no choice but to attack/ be ready to attack.
But if there is no China base in SL and there are hostilities in Himalyan region between RoI and PRC then almost certainly Pak would start something on the other side, in this case would it be prudent to take SL on ?
Of course India has to continue showing its displeasure to PRC and SL over the Subs issue. But I don't think that in case of war b/w PRC and India, SL would get sucked in, at least not militarily.

The thing is, nobody is dominating Lanka, hell we even turned against the LTTE to placate these guys. Lankans like Pakis suffer from an inferiority complex when it comes to a large country like India being their neighbor and cozying up to China at the expense of India will cause them more harm than good.

Clearly what ever India has been doing up till now, SL has seen as weakness. And weakness is punished. They think India will not do much in spite of India being SL's only neighbor.

Also what are the reasons that NP/BH/BD/SL are moving towards PRC ?

 

[DingDong]

If there is a China base in SL, then Ind mil has no choice but to attack/ be ready to attack.
But if there is no China base in SL and there are hostilities in Himalyan region between RoI and PRC then almost certainly Pak would start something on the other side, in this case would it be prudent to take SL on ?
Of course India has to continue showing its displeasure to PRC and SL over the Subs issue. But I don't think that in case of war b/w PRC and India, SL would get sucked in, at least not militarily.


Clearly what ever India has been doing up till now, SL has seen as weakness. And weakness is punished. They think India will not do much in spite of India being SL's only neighbor.

Also what are the reasons that NP/BH/BD/SL are moving towards PRC ?

I have a hunch that US, Japan and India have found a common ground against China, such synergy was missing in past. "String of Pearls" must be sunk in the Indian Ocean, All these countries which have been a part of this scheme must be punished severely. Our neighbours are testing our patience, primarily due to pur week kneed foreign policy during the UPA regime, we have sent a clear message to Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives are next.

Deep seaport project in deep water

Construction of the proposed deep seaport faces uncertainty as major regional and global powers have teamed up against China's involvement in the multi-billion dollar infrastructure project in the country. The countries opposing the Chinese funded 'strategic instalment' feel threatened as they do not want China to dominate the Pacific region further, at least in the form of port-related investment, a senior secretary to the government, preferring anonymity, said. The bureaucracy in the government confirmed that India, Japan and the United States have taken similar stance against the government's plan to go ahead with the Chinese proposal on construction of the port. The trio, however, have so far failed to offer an alternative financing arrangement, it is learnt. - See more at: Deep seaport project in deep water | New Age

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Sri Lanka : China has no military presence in Sri Lanka, India assured

3 days ago

 

[DingDong]

Sri Lanka : China has no military presence in Sri Lanka, India assured

3 days ago

Assurance is not sufficient. India must follow a policy of zero tolerance against these nagging neighbours.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Assurance is not sufficient. India must follow a policy of zero tolerance against these nagging neighbours.

Build some missile silos in south and place a few hundred shauryas with nuclear warheads pointed at Sri Lanka.

 

[Free Karma]

Also what are the reasons that NP/BH/BD/SL are moving towards PRC ?

Mostly money, and weakness of UPA, with small actors trying to play a game. Plus typical narratives like evil India wants to control everything,/RAW bad guys etc.

WRT Nepal, some articles that were published before Modi's visit mentioned it was a combination of weakness of UPA, Maoists gaining influence and China stepping in.. Projects that were promised to be completed years ago were not even started. PRC took advantage of this. Maoist propaganda (funded by China) also constantly blames India for "stealing Nepals natural resources/taking our heritage (buddha)" and so on, I think they were also responsible for "hindu' being dropped form the constitution.

Bhutan was convinced to buy chinese buses, and started to cozy up to China, then they were told harshly not to get too close (gas supply was cut off by India). They still have a border dispute with China, that has not been resolved. The way it is resolved is also important to us, wrt the Siliguri corridor.
One thing to note is that both the countries had big changes happening during the mid-late 2000's. Nepal got itself a new constitution, Bhutan changed it's way of parliament. Both countries are still quite pro India at this point.

Bangladesh seems to have some crackpot islamic elements that resent India, like the Jamatis, and see China as the saviour from Rawami leage oppression. BD govt is just playing it's cards to milk cash and create opportunities, I think as long as Hasina is in power things will be okay.

SL is probably the most complex of the lot, the relationship has never been totally good with SL. It's been flip-floppy, while SL would like to claim that they are neutral, they have done a few things that were not (US base, refuelling Pak in Indian waters during 1971, despite being explicitly asked to not do so and so on). but the big push to China came with the sale of weapons to combat the ltte, Post war they financed many projects, which the upa took no decision on, or just downright refused due to political or other pressures.( see how Chabahar port was handled by the UPA...still not completed)

China's role in these are given huge publicity, while on the other hand even fringe party leaders even in TN (like Seeman Sebastian for ex) are made to look like important leaders in India who are anti SL . Seeing how most newspapers work quite closely with the SL govt, it seems to be the view they want to propagate or atleast use to justify giving China so much room on the island.

From the link posted by @LETHALFORCE it seems like this is the price for all that, none of the deals are transparent, a lot of people from SL seem to say that the politicians in SL quite corrupt aswell, so I think Chinese have pretty much bought the place and they have made very harsh deals. I guess they can basically do what they want to on the island, commercially and militarily.

For an example of Chinese deals, just take a look at China's deals with Pakistan, Myanmar, they completely trampled on local interests, which is causing some re-adjustment in places like Myanmar.

Anyway the current situation around the neighbourhood is mostly a result of China's economic power increasing while India had a fragile,lazy government at the center, that did nothing to prevent it...remember this guy called Salman Khurshid..... "Would like to move to Beijing", "We should expect China in our backyard" and other statements.

India needs to think about re-kindling the militancy in North Sri Lanka, and keep it boiling, just enough to keep the PLAAN's forays close to India in check. Only then will Sri Lanka listen. Diplomatic pressure only works when issued from a position of strength.
.

The problem with such a solution is that they can very easily turn against the creator (and did), but maybe RAW has learnt from their previous attempt . Another problem is that some ex-ltte cadre are now working as mercenaries for orgs like ISI, for example the recently caught isi spy in Chennai was actually ex-ltte. Adding more militants to the area is going to complicate things.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

@Free Karma

Chines and Sri Lankan deals are between them. But if it includes military cooperation
Against india then it is a security issue.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

India alarmed over Sri Lanka opening port for Chinese nuclear submarine again

 

[hitesh]

So much, after India giving the cold shoulder to the LTTE.

Instead of going on an arms import spree, India needs to think about re-kindling the militancy in North Sri Lanka, and keep it boiling, just enough to keep the PLAAN's forays close to India in check. Only then will Sri Lanka listen. Diplomatic pressure only works when issued from a position of strength.

On a slightly related note, India should build up its naval forces and have a plan to occupy (and potentially annex) the Maldives in case a foreign power tries to set up a Naval Base there.

India has a clear stand that it do not support terrorism in any state & forbids it as state policy un like Pakistan (India can't go into the path of pakistan to use terror as its state policy against other nation).


Regarding annexing Maldives , India does not have such clout to do so without backing of 1st world country as India is still Soft Power.

 

[Ray]

Sri Lanka is a sovereign country and is entitled to her own ways and means.

No great shakes actually.

India Look East policy should be vigorously pursued and India should concentrate on Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Australia and that will seal the Chinese to the Pacific.

Then Sri Lanka can wither away like an over dry apricot past the expiry date.

 

[DingDong]

India has a clear stand that it do not support terrorism in any state & forbids it as state policy un like Pakistan (India can't go into the path of pakistan to use terror as its state policy against other nation).


Regarding annexing Maldives , India does not have such clout to do so without backing of 1st world country as India is still Soft Power.

India can incrementally occupy Maldivian islands. As far as clout is concerned, it is not given, India must deserve it through her actions. We don't need to be morally correct, everything is fair in geopolitics.

 

[sayareakd]

Wonder what will happen if ex Ltte take out that second sub in lankan port. Will India be first country to respond to such event.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Is this really international waters in the palk strait?

 

[DingDong]

India is a super-power but it can't handle Lanka, lol.

I think we as Indians need a reality check. We have a history of being conquered and ruled. We can't just ignore all that and pretend we're strong and free now. We aren't. We are not Europe or Arabia - they've had heroic conquerors in the past. We've had ... well, not much. The present is always shaped by the past. And our past is what exactly ... slavery?

Who told you to read your Family biography on a defence forum? I know that slavery is in your inbred genes.