Sino-Russian Alliance: Seven Arguments for a De Facto Alliance

[Martian]

1. China-Russia Alliance is defense against US SIOP.

Since 1961, the United States has a battle plan called SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) to nuke both China and Russia in the event of a war. In the view of the United States, only China and Russia have sufficient population, military technology, landmass, and economic size to generate global power.

Thus, the United States cannot only nuke either China or Russia. The United States has to nuke both China and Russia to prevent either country from dominating a post-nuclear war world.

In contrast, China has pledged a No First Use (NFU) policy. China will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states. The United States has rejected a No First Use pledge.

Russia has said it will only use nuclear weapons to defend the territory of the Russian Federation.

The nuclear posture of China and Russia are defensive. The US SIOP plan is clearly offensive against China and Russia.

I believe an informal Sino-Russian alliance already exists and is inevitable. At its core, China and Russia want to protect themselves from the US SIOP plan (and its successor).

WHY OBAMA CAN'T END NUKES | Newsweek

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2. China and Russia are building ICBMs that are only useful in targeting the US and not each other.

The official policy of the United States is to threaten China and Russia with thermonuclear destruction if the United States goes to war with EITHER of them. Not surprisingly, China and Russia are building up their own thermonuclear arsenals to counter-threaten the United States.

ICBMs have a minimum effective range due to its sub-orbital flight path. Thus, China's DF-41 12-MIRV ICBM is effective only against the US and not Russia.

Similarly, Russian nuke trains are only effective against the US and not China.

Why Russia's Reviving Its Nuke Trains | Sputnik
"It was reported that the Russian Army may receive five Barguzin railroad ICBM systems by 2020."

China and Russia share a common interest in deterring the US SIOP nuclear strike plan. China's growing arsenal of DF-41 12-MIRV ICBMs and Russia's revival of nuke trains to fire ICBMs are proof of a de-facto Sino-Russian military alliance. China and Russia are both working toward a common goal of stopping the US SIOP.
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3. US technology sanctions against Russia has forced the Russians to rely on China for semiconductor chips and microelectronics.

After Russia "reclaimed"/"invaded" the Crimea, the United States sent a message to Russia by imposing crippling technology sanctions. Since Russia does not produce microchips or microelectronics, the Russians were in a tight spot. However, the Russians were able to find an alternative technology supplier in China.

The US technology sanctions have taught the Russians that China is an important "friend"/"ally" for microelectronic technology.

Chinese microelectronics will replace U.S. microelectronics in Russian space, defense industries - newspaper | Russia Beyond The Headlines

"Russian rocket and space and defense enterprises plan to buy batches of electronic components from China worth some $1 billion in the next calendar year, the newspaper Izvestia reported on Wednesday."

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4. US and European economic sanctions over Russian involvement in Eastern Ukraine has led to Russian dependence on oil exports to China.

The Russians made the common mistake of putting all of their economic eggs into one basket. The Russians think of themselves as strictly European. Thus, let's only export Russian oil to Europe and hinder China's economic development. There are two flaws in this line of reasoning.

Firstly, China exports to the world. China proved for 30 years that it could grow 10% economically per year without significant Russian trade. Hence, Russia never had the ability to accelerate or hinder Chinese technological and economic development.

Secondly, Russia was basically imposing an economic sanction on itself by restricting trade with the Chinese economic colossus next door. It's like Canada shutting off trade with the United States. It's called economic stupidity.

After the United States and Europe restricted economic relations with Russia, where could Russia go to earn hard currency? The only solution to Russia's economic problem was China. China has a domestic market of $10 trillion and hard currency reserves of $3 trillion. China's huge market could absorb billions of dollars of Russian oil exports and pay hard currency for them.

Russia has realized China is an important economic lifeline. This is another compelling reason for a de facto Sino-Russian economic alliance.

Russia beats Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier in 2016 | Reuters

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5. China and Russia are working together politically by casting UN veto votes against US resolutions on Syria.

I've lost count of the number of China and Russia tandem vetoes at the UN against US proposals on Syria.

Russian vetoes of UN resolutions on Syria | Daily Mail

"Russia has now blocked seven UN resolutions regarding Syria since unrest erupted there in 2011, almost always with support from China."

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6. Trade between China and Russia is booming.

Mutually beneficial trade between two neighboring countries fosters economic interdependence. Over time, China and Russia will have an important stake in each other's economic well-being. A shared economic destiny tends to move countries toward a de facto alliance over time.

China-Russia Trade Turnover Grew by 28% in February | Sputnik

"BEIJING (Sputnik) – In February, Chinese exports to Russia increased by 14.9 percent to $2.02 billion, while imports from Russia increased by 44.3 percent to $3.014 billion, the customs statistics showed."

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7. China and Russia are holding an unprecedented number of joint military exercises on land and the sea.

In the past, China and Russia held joint SCO Peace Mission military exercises. The land-based military exercises have grown in scope over the years. Currently, thousands of troops are involved in the Peace Mission land-based military training. Furthermore, China and Russia have extended their joint military operations to the South China Sea.

China, Russia begin joint exercises in South China Sea | CNN

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In conclusion, there is a multitude of economic, technological, political, and military reasons pushing China and Russia into a de facto alliance.

 

[amoy]

NO NO NO to an alliance - China shall go "West", not North.

To begin with, neither the Chinese nor Russian governments have the intention to form a military alliance. President Putin has repeatedly stated that an alliance with China is not on Russia’s agenda. On China’s part, non-alliance has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy since the 1980s and a key component of the concept of “a harmonious world” and the “Shanghai spirit” of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Both terms have long been advocated by the Chinese government. In this sense, forming alliance is not an ordinary foreign policy decision, but a major shift in China’s fundamental approach and principles of diplomacy.

Second, though it is true that our increasingly complex world presents growing security challenges to both countries, neither China nor Russia face the risk of a massive military invasion. Despite the Ukrainian crisis, Russia’s security situation along its western border has significantly improved since the Cold-War years marked by acute military standoff between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. And according to its latest report on national security released at the end of last year, the Russian government does not see Russia under any threat of large-scale military invasion, though the country does face diplomatic containment imposed by the United States. Though tensions have risen between China and the United States in the South China Sea and the potential for war on the Korean Peninsula casts a long shadow over the region, force is apparently not the Chinese government’s first choice to deal with these problems. In other words, the security threats facing China and Russia, despite their multitude, cannot and should not be tackled through massive use of force. This renders a military alliance unnecessary.

Third, one of the core objectives of the China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination is to develop a new post-Cold War international order that contributes to peace and development. The two countries co-initiated the Shanghai spirit, calling for joint efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability through cooperation, consultation, compromise, dialogue, respect for cultural diversity and pursuit of common development. Unless all options are exhausted, both countries are opposed to the irresponsible use of force in international affairs and security under hegemony or preponderance of power. This is a new concept and model of security different from those of the Cold War era that shares the same basis with the principle of non-alliance.

Fourth, non-alliance is conducive to a partnership based on equality and mutual respect. Either during the Cold War or in the present, any bilateral or multilateral military alliance always has one country as the de facto leader — not just because alliance usually involves the weak begging the strong for security assistance, but also because the hierarchy in any permanent joint military command structure would inevitably result in some kind of inequality between allied countries. As China’s strength rapidly grows, an increasing number of people in Russia are concerned that being closely associated with China could tie Russia to China’s foreign policy and are against forming alliance with China. Therefore, China and Russia are more likely to enjoy stable relations as non-allies.

Fifth, China and Russia face different circumstances domestically and internationally, including in the realm of security. Their choice to establish a strategic partnership of coordination instead of alliance leaves necessary room for both to deal with their respective security and economic issues based on individual national interests. China and Russia do not always share the same view or explicitly support each other, though on certain issues, the two countries support each other by simply taking parallel policies or not publicly criticizing the other side. A strategic partnership gives each other more policy latitude than an alliance.

Last but not least, being allies does not mean direct military support is always in order when wars break out. Strategic analysts calling for China-Russia alliance hope that as allies, Russia will assist China militarily and even join the war if the mainland is compelled to use force against separatists in Taiwan, who could be aided by foreign defense forces. Yet history of and after the Cold War shows that allies are not always reliable when it comes to fulfilling their treaty responsibilities. In February 1979, Chinese troops launched the war of self-defense against Vietnam, only three months after the signing of the Vietnam-Soviet Union defense treaty. The war lasted a whole month, during which the Soviet Union did nothing but carried out several military exercises along the Suifen River in its border area with China. In March 2003, the US-led war on Iraq was firmly opposed by its NATO allies Germany and France.

 

[Hemu Vikram Aditya]

concept of “a harmonious world”

What A Big joke