Off course he gets it.
He is the 'out there' from the Ukrainian civil war POV. :biggrin2:
Russian involvement in Syrian crisis
- Thread starter LETHALFORCE
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He is the 'out there' from the Ukrainian civil war POV. :biggrin2:
jouni
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Please try to cool down both. I am sure that Russia and Ukraine will be in the future like Sweden and Finland: centuries as a one country and now happily separated and peaceful and prosperous. Like Sweden has shown the way to Finland in many issues, in the future Ukraine will show the way to Russia. This year may be remembered in the future as the starting point of the long process of civil society development in Ukraine that will slowly but surely influence Russia also.
Akim
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Output should be sought, but not impose it.
In Turkmenistan, Turkmenbashi was dismissed, and the kids do not pick cotton instead of studying.
pmaitra
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Finally Some Clarity About Russian Syria Plans
The intervention is a game changer albeit more so for its political rather than military implications
The Saker | (The Unz Review) | Russia Insider
GAZ 3308
Originally appeared at The Unz Review
A lot has happened in the last few hours. Putin spoke at the UN, the Russian Parliament has approved the use of Russian military forces in Syria and Sergei Ivanov has given the Russian media a detailed explanation for the reasons which made the Kremlin request such an authorization. The picture has finally become much clearer.
What will not happen:
There will be no “Most Anticipated Showdown in Recent History”: no Russian ground operation, no Russian imposition of a no-fly zone (especially not against the US or its allies!), no MiG-31s, no Russian Airborne Forces, no Russian tanks on the frontlines, no Russian SSBN (nuclear weapons carrying) submarines and probably no significant Russians military presence around Damascus. In fact, there will be no Russian unilateral military operation of any kind. All that nonsense can now finally be put to rest.
What will happen:
The Russian military operation will be legal on all levels: the Russians have received a formal request for military assistance from the Syrian government, the Russian Parliament has given its authorization, and Russia will seek a UN Security Council authorization. The Russian military operation will be officially limited to air operations including bombings and close air support. The main hub of the Russian operation will be in Latakia. Crucially, Russia will act as a part of a broad coalition.
It would be a mistake to focus primarily on what will happen next. I would argue that what has already happened is far more significant.
What has already happened:
Putin has basically forced the USA to accept the Russian plan. Kerry has told CNN that the US policy for Syria will be “adjusted” – in other words the US is giving up on the notion of ousting Assad, officially temporarily. NATO has declared that it would welcome a positive role for Russia in Syria. The Pentagon has followed the Israeli example and has decided to open a special communications channel to coordinate Russian and US operations. Considering the above, I suppose that the US will give its Bulgarian colony the order to stop closing its airspace to Russian aircraft.
Finally, I will make some guesses as to what might happen next.
What might also happen:
First, I would not be surprised if the Russians did declare that it was their standard operating procedure to protect their military installations with air defense systems. And then would finally bring in their S-300s (I am aware of rumors that the S-300s are already there, but I have seen no confirmation so far). I would expect the Israelis to feel particularly miserable about that, and I would not be surprised if the Russians offered guarantees that these systems would remain exclusively under Russian control. What is already certain is that Netanyahu did fly to Moscow to address issues of Russian-Israeli is not “cooperation” then at least “non-interference.” I would add here that Moscow has no hostile plans towards Israel whatsoever and that, by all accounts, the Russians and Israeli officials get along famously, if only because both sides are smart and pragmatists (they don’t need a love fest, they need responsible behavior).
Second, the official Russian military presence in Syria will give the Russians the perfect cover for all sorts of covert efforts including the delivery of equipment, joint intelligence operations and even direct action missions. I don’t think that this will be a major part of the Russian effort, but now the option is definitely here.
Third, and this is admittedly 100% my own speculations, I believe that the entire Russian military effort will be a cover for something else: a larger Iranian and Hezbollah involvement. Why?
For one thing, there is only that much any air operation can achieve. There is no reason to assume that a very small Russian Air Force contingent will significantly change the course of the war. The total failure of the NATO airforces over Kosovo has proven that air operations are, by themselves, of very limited capability, and, unlike the NATO in Kosovo, Russia will send a rather small contingent of aircraft.
However, the presence of the Russian Air Force in the Syrian skies could conveniently “explain away” any sudden military reversals for Daesh, especially if the real reason for such reversals would be a beefed up Iranian intervention. Again, I have absolutely no information confirming any of that, but I personally expect a sharp rise in the Iranian and Hezbollah efforts to bush back Daesh.
Evaluation:
In purely military terms this is a rather minor development. Yes, the Syrian Air Force badly needs some modernization (the fact that they are using helicopter-dropped 500kg barrel bombs is a proof that they don’t have enough aircraft to deliver guided or even unguided 500kg aerial bombs) and the Russians will be bringing some very capable aircraft (SU-24s and SU-25s for sure, and in some specific cases they could even use Tu-22M3s and SU-34s). But this will not be a game changer.
Politically, however, this marks yet another triumph for Vladimir Putin who has forced the US Empire to renounce its plans to overthrow Assad. Because, and make no mistake here, the Russians are now there to stay: a limited Russian military presence will now turn into a major Russian political commitment. Furthermore, not only will Tartus continue to serve a fairly limited but not irrelevant role for the Russian Navy, the airbase in Latakia will become a hub of Russian military operations and, in effect, a forward operating base for the Black Sea Fleet.
Conclusion: a game changer after all?
Yes. But not because of some Russian military move. Consider this: for the United States the main purpose of Daesh was to overthrow Assad. Now that the US is declaring that they “don’t plan to arm the Syrian rebels at the moment” and that Assad will not be overthrown, the utility of Daesh to the Empire has just taken a major hit. If the Empire decides that Daesh has outlived its utility and that it has now turned into a liability, then the days of Daesh are counted.
Of course, I am under no illusions about any real change of heart in the imperial “deep state.” What we see now is just a tactical adaptation to a situation which the US could not control, not a deep strategic shift. The rabid russophobes in the West are still out there (albeit some have left in disgust ) and they will now have the chance to blame Russia for anything and everything in Syria, especially if something goes really wrong. Yes, Putin has just won another major victory against the Empire (where are those who claimed that Russia had “sold out” Syria?!), but now Russia will have to manage this potentially “dangerous victory.”
The intervention is a game changer albeit more so for its political rather than military implications
The Saker | (The Unz Review) | Russia Insider
GAZ 3308
Originally appeared at The Unz Review
A lot has happened in the last few hours. Putin spoke at the UN, the Russian Parliament has approved the use of Russian military forces in Syria and Sergei Ivanov has given the Russian media a detailed explanation for the reasons which made the Kremlin request such an authorization. The picture has finally become much clearer.
What will not happen:
There will be no “Most Anticipated Showdown in Recent History”: no Russian ground operation, no Russian imposition of a no-fly zone (especially not against the US or its allies!), no MiG-31s, no Russian Airborne Forces, no Russian tanks on the frontlines, no Russian SSBN (nuclear weapons carrying) submarines and probably no significant Russians military presence around Damascus. In fact, there will be no Russian unilateral military operation of any kind. All that nonsense can now finally be put to rest.
What will happen:
The Russian military operation will be legal on all levels: the Russians have received a formal request for military assistance from the Syrian government, the Russian Parliament has given its authorization, and Russia will seek a UN Security Council authorization. The Russian military operation will be officially limited to air operations including bombings and close air support. The main hub of the Russian operation will be in Latakia. Crucially, Russia will act as a part of a broad coalition.
It would be a mistake to focus primarily on what will happen next. I would argue that what has already happened is far more significant.
What has already happened:
Putin has basically forced the USA to accept the Russian plan. Kerry has told CNN that the US policy for Syria will be “adjusted” – in other words the US is giving up on the notion of ousting Assad, officially temporarily. NATO has declared that it would welcome a positive role for Russia in Syria. The Pentagon has followed the Israeli example and has decided to open a special communications channel to coordinate Russian and US operations. Considering the above, I suppose that the US will give its Bulgarian colony the order to stop closing its airspace to Russian aircraft.
Finally, I will make some guesses as to what might happen next.
What might also happen:
First, I would not be surprised if the Russians did declare that it was their standard operating procedure to protect their military installations with air defense systems. And then would finally bring in their S-300s (I am aware of rumors that the S-300s are already there, but I have seen no confirmation so far). I would expect the Israelis to feel particularly miserable about that, and I would not be surprised if the Russians offered guarantees that these systems would remain exclusively under Russian control. What is already certain is that Netanyahu did fly to Moscow to address issues of Russian-Israeli is not “cooperation” then at least “non-interference.” I would add here that Moscow has no hostile plans towards Israel whatsoever and that, by all accounts, the Russians and Israeli officials get along famously, if only because both sides are smart and pragmatists (they don’t need a love fest, they need responsible behavior).
Second, the official Russian military presence in Syria will give the Russians the perfect cover for all sorts of covert efforts including the delivery of equipment, joint intelligence operations and even direct action missions. I don’t think that this will be a major part of the Russian effort, but now the option is definitely here.
Third, and this is admittedly 100% my own speculations, I believe that the entire Russian military effort will be a cover for something else: a larger Iranian and Hezbollah involvement. Why?
For one thing, there is only that much any air operation can achieve. There is no reason to assume that a very small Russian Air Force contingent will significantly change the course of the war. The total failure of the NATO airforces over Kosovo has proven that air operations are, by themselves, of very limited capability, and, unlike the NATO in Kosovo, Russia will send a rather small contingent of aircraft.
However, the presence of the Russian Air Force in the Syrian skies could conveniently “explain away” any sudden military reversals for Daesh, especially if the real reason for such reversals would be a beefed up Iranian intervention. Again, I have absolutely no information confirming any of that, but I personally expect a sharp rise in the Iranian and Hezbollah efforts to bush back Daesh.
Evaluation:
In purely military terms this is a rather minor development. Yes, the Syrian Air Force badly needs some modernization (the fact that they are using helicopter-dropped 500kg barrel bombs is a proof that they don’t have enough aircraft to deliver guided or even unguided 500kg aerial bombs) and the Russians will be bringing some very capable aircraft (SU-24s and SU-25s for sure, and in some specific cases they could even use Tu-22M3s and SU-34s). But this will not be a game changer.
Politically, however, this marks yet another triumph for Vladimir Putin who has forced the US Empire to renounce its plans to overthrow Assad. Because, and make no mistake here, the Russians are now there to stay: a limited Russian military presence will now turn into a major Russian political commitment. Furthermore, not only will Tartus continue to serve a fairly limited but not irrelevant role for the Russian Navy, the airbase in Latakia will become a hub of Russian military operations and, in effect, a forward operating base for the Black Sea Fleet.
Conclusion: a game changer after all?
Yes. But not because of some Russian military move. Consider this: for the United States the main purpose of Daesh was to overthrow Assad. Now that the US is declaring that they “don’t plan to arm the Syrian rebels at the moment” and that Assad will not be overthrown, the utility of Daesh to the Empire has just taken a major hit. If the Empire decides that Daesh has outlived its utility and that it has now turned into a liability, then the days of Daesh are counted.
Of course, I am under no illusions about any real change of heart in the imperial “deep state.” What we see now is just a tactical adaptation to a situation which the US could not control, not a deep strategic shift. The rabid russophobes in the West are still out there (albeit some have left in disgust ) and they will now have the chance to blame Russia for anything and everything in Syria, especially if something goes really wrong. Yes, Putin has just won another major victory against the Empire (where are those who claimed that Russia had “sold out” Syria?!), but now Russia will have to manage this potentially “dangerous victory.”
pmaitra
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I doubt he got it. Look at this below.
Baba Akim, please understand, I am trying to talk about groups and governments in and around Syria. I am not talking about a country (Turkmenistan) next to a second country (Iran), which is next to a third country (Iraq), which is next to Syria.
ПОНИМАЕТЕ?
Akim
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Then Saudi Arabia will supply air defense systems for the FSA. This will not only Chinese MANPADS.Finally Some Clarity About Russian Syria Plans
The intervention is a game changer albeit more so for its political rather than military implications
The Saker | (The Unz Review) | Russia Insider
GAZ 3308
Originally appeared at The Unz Review
A lot has happened in the last few hours. Putin spoke at the UN, the Russian Parliament has approved the use of Russian military forces in Syria and Sergei Ivanov has given the Russian media a detailed explanation for the reasons which made the Kremlin request such an authorization. The picture has finally become much clearer.
What will not happen:
There will be no “Most Anticipated Showdown in Recent History”: no Russian ground operation, no Russian imposition of a no-fly zone (especially not against the US or its allies!), no MiG-31s, no Russian Airborne Forces, no Russian tanks on the frontlines, no Russian SSBN (nuclear weapons carrying) submarines and probably no significant Russians military presence around Damascus. In fact, there will be no Russian unilateral military operation of any kind. All that nonsense can now finally be put to rest.
What will happen:
The Russian military operation will be legal on all levels: the Russians have received a formal request for military assistance from the Syrian government, the Russian Parliament has given its authorization, and Russia will seek a UN Security Council authorization. The Russian military operation will be officially limited to air operations including bombings and close air support. The main hub of the Russian operation will be in Latakia. Crucially, Russia will act as a part of a broad coalition.
It would be a mistake to focus primarily on what will happen next. I would argue that what has already happened is far more significant.
What has already happened:
Putin has basically forced the USA to accept the Russian plan. Kerry has told CNN that the US policy for Syria will be “adjusted” – in other words the US is giving up on the notion of ousting Assad, officially temporarily. NATO has declared that it would welcome a positive role for Russia in Syria. The Pentagon has followed the Israeli example and has decided to open a special communications channel to coordinate Russian and US operations. Considering the above, I suppose that the US will give its Bulgarian colony the order to stop closing its airspace to Russian aircraft.
Finally, I will make some guesses as to what might happen next.
What might also happen:
First, I would not be surprised if the Russians did declare that it was their standard operating procedure to protect their military installations with air defense systems. And then would finally bring in their S-300s (I am aware of rumors that the S-300s are already there, but I have seen no confirmation so far). I would expect the Israelis to feel particularly miserable about that, and I would not be surprised if the Russians offered guarantees that these systems would remain exclusively under Russian control. What is already certain is that Netanyahu did fly to Moscow to address issues of Russian-Israeli is not “cooperation” then at least “non-interference.” I would add here that Moscow has no hostile plans towards Israel whatsoever and that, by all accounts, the Russians and Israeli officials get along famously, if only because both sides are smart and pragmatists (they don’t need a love fest, they need responsible behavior).
Second, the official Russian military presence in Syria will give the Russians the perfect cover for all sorts of covert efforts including the delivery of equipment, joint intelligence operations and even direct action missions. I don’t think that this will be a major part of the Russian effort, but now the option is definitely here.
Third, and this is admittedly 100% my own speculations, I believe that the entire Russian military effort will be a cover for something else: a larger Iranian and Hezbollah involvement. Why?
For one thing, there is only that much any air operation can achieve. There is no reason to assume that a very small Russian Air Force contingent will significantly change the course of the war. The total failure of the NATO airforces over Kosovo has proven that air operations are, by themselves, of very limited capability, and, unlike the NATO in Kosovo, Russia will send a rather small contingent of aircraft.
However, the presence of the Russian Air Force in the Syrian skies could conveniently “explain away” any sudden military reversals for Daesh, especially if the real reason for such reversals would be a beefed up Iranian intervention. Again, I have absolutely no information confirming any of that, but I personally expect a sharp rise in the Iranian and Hezbollah efforts to bush back Daesh.
Evaluation:
In purely military terms this is a rather minor development. Yes, the Syrian Air Force badly needs some modernization (the fact that they are using helicopter-dropped 500kg barrel bombs is a proof that they don’t have enough aircraft to deliver guided or even unguided 500kg aerial bombs) and the Russians will be bringing some very capable aircraft (SU-24s and SU-25s for sure, and in some specific cases they could even use Tu-22M3s and SU-34s). But this will not be a game changer.
Politically, however, this marks yet another triumph for Vladimir Putin who has forced the US Empire to renounce its plans to overthrow Assad. Because, and make no mistake here, the Russians are now there to stay: a limited Russian military presence will now turn into a major Russian political commitment. Furthermore, not only will Tartus continue to serve a fairly limited but not irrelevant role for the Russian Navy, the airbase in Latakia will become a hub of Russian military operations and, in effect, a forward operating base for the Black Sea Fleet.
Conclusion: a game changer after all?
Yes. But not because of some Russian military move. Consider this: for the United States the main purpose of Daesh was to overthrow Assad. Now that the US is declaring that they “don’t plan to arm the Syrian rebels at the moment” and that Assad will not be overthrown, the utility of Daesh to the Empire has just taken a major hit. If the Empire decides that Daesh has outlived its utility and that it has now turned into a liability, then the days of Daesh are counted.
Of course, I am under no illusions about any real change of heart in the imperial “deep state.” What we see now is just a tactical adaptation to a situation which the US could not control, not a deep strategic shift. The rabid russophobes in the West are still out there (albeit some have left in disgust ) and they will now have the chance to blame Russia for anything and everything in Syria, especially if something goes really wrong. Yes, Putin has just won another major victory against the Empire (where are those who claimed that Russia had “sold out” Syria?!), but now Russia will have to manage this potentially “dangerous victory.”
Akim
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Therefore, there is a civil war. Assad's family has been too long in power. Syria - not a monarchy.
Cadian
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Ukraine has already shown Russia a way which way NOT to go. This bloody bitchy circus they made from a normal country will stay in our memory for generations.
Akim
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Trust Putin more. Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh,Tajikistan, Abkhazia, Chechnya1, Chechnya2, Ingushetia, South Ossetia, Georgia, Syria, Ukraine. Where does boots the Russian soldiers- there is no peaceful solution.
Cadian
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You should thank communists' national policy, which promoted all kinds indigenous nationalisms (with the exception of Russian, it was banned). It caused a huge spark of ultra-nationalism all over ex-Soviet states after the USSR collapse. Russia has STOPPED this wars, not started. Ukrainian shit eruption happened only today, because it was one of the less nationalistic ex-USSR countries in 90-th, but today it is likely the most one.
jouni
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Deep down all these crisis are about democracy as we developed nations know it versus other systems, which for lack of better word I call "eastern systems" they are basically collective hierarchical patriarchal etc. Democracy is not perfect, but like W.C said "It might be a very bad system, but it is the best of those we have ever tried"
West have 800 years head start so all these "hick ups" are understandable, whether in Syria, Pakistan or Ukraine.
West have 800 years head start so all these "hick ups" are understandable, whether in Syria, Pakistan or Ukraine.
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Deep down all these crises are started by America and its lapdogs like Finland, SA etc.
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what a statement .. and add it this one too [ except Hezbullah ]
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Add Barak Obama, USA state dept., MOSAD, Netanyuhu, Turkey, Edrigan.....
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Add Narendra Modi too ..I heard some media reports, he too involved in a Massacre
Akim
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The LDPR solid liberals headed by Zhirinovsky.:biggrin2: No matte rwhat the name ofthe party, its ideologyis important. Russia cultivates nationalismin neighbouring countries. Nationalismis every where. Only in Russia the tone reached orlovna paranoia.You think if rus. bomb Syria, the Syrians will be more to love Putin?
Akim
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America nobody likes. But why Russia not to take fromher example inthe еconomics, politics, social sphere? Only in aggression towards others.
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Considering the kind of crooks backed by US in the name of democracy like, various Pak military dictators and puppets like benazir, sharif in pak and the pious democratic govt of Saudi Arabia, it is not even worth talking about the quality of Assad's democracy.
The US has clearly shown that it did not have the balls and spine to stay the course in Afganistan, iraq, Libiya and now Syria even when there is no opposition from Russia.
They just bluff democracy , human rights go for massive air campaign killing tens of thousands of innocent citizens, back some ineffective puppet govt, The terrorist know the Americans wont last, and plan a long low key campaigm, Once US dead count reaches 2000 plus , the POTUS doesnt know east from west and start packing and leaving , The only result is destroyed country, and un ending civil war and barbaric terror elements like ISIS and taliban ruling the roost.
See Afganistan, irag, lybia ans syria,
So it is time Obama keeps quiet, he has zero support from Europe which is reeling under syrian refugees. Putin just grabbed the moment and proved the total incompetence of US foreign policy.
Mainland US if well isolated from refugee crisis, Islamic terrorism and spectre of dealing with failed states, So they can afford whatever blunder Obama commits in iraq, syria , afganisthan and libya.
But European and Asian countries who face the after effects certainly cant be expected to swoon to the American death song of democracy .
And CAn Obama offer his personal guarantee about the "rebels" he is backing will usher in democracy in Syria? Who is he fooling?
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Add Narendra Modi too ..I heard some media reports, he too involved in a Massacre
You just showed you own intellectual bankruptcy.
Your blindness is nauseating. May be some day you can try to first be an Indian, then some other nation's spokesperson?
