Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Says

Gabriel92

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Slava Rassiy Slava Rassiy !! :peace: :peace: :peace: :russia:

Staunton, February 22 – Russian forces fought in the Donbas the way Soviet forces fought "50 years ago," a reflection of their lack of contemporary equipment and training and that they are so "unprepared for modern war" that in a war with NATO, they would suffer much the same fate as the Zulus against the British army, Pavel Felgegauer says.



"That does not mean," the independent Russian analyst says, that Russian forces cannot conduct another campaign like the in Ukraine. They can if the enemy resembles one in Ukraine. Instead, it means that Russian forces are not in a position to defeat modern NATO armies on the field of battle (the-village.ru/village/city/city-news/176731-army).



But Russia is rapidly rearming and updating its training programs, and as a result, by 2025, a decade from now, Felgengauer says, the world must be "prepared for a world war" between Russia and the West "or for a series of major regional conflicts" over natural resources and spheres of influence.



Although there are some modernized units in the Russian military and the success of certain FSB units in Crimea, the Moscow analyst paints a devastating picture of the overall state of the Russian armed forces:



"The arming and equipment of the soldiers does not correspond to contemporary standards. They do not have the arms, the protection, or the communications" that modern armies do. "Nothing has changed in principle." Russia doesn't produce "contemporary rifles or normal bullets, or artillery shells" and consequently "shoots with the old ones."



"There are no sniper rifles and no snipers," he continues. "There is a clutch of specialists in the FSB who have foreign arms and bullets. Russian tanks are antiquated and poorly armed, and they are "willingly purchased only by those countries which do not have any problems with their birthrates."



Russian aviation, Felgengauer continues, "cannot effectively support ground forces, in any case, at night or in bad weather." Russian avionics are antequated. And radars of the most advanced kind are produced only in the US. "We used to purchase them, but we can't get them anymore." Russia can't produce equivalents." And it lacks the GPS guidance systems that make modern armies so effective.



All this means, he concludes, that Russia's armed forces currently "are at the level of Pakistan's. Of course, [Russia] has nuclear weapons, rockets, and submarines," although "how many of them really are suitable for use in the event of a nuclear war, no one knowns for certain or will specially seek to find out."



Changing that, Felgengauer says, will not be easy because "all serious modernizations in Russian history have relied on Western technology," and now it is going to be more difficult to gain access to it.



Moreover, he points out, "Russia in general is a very provincial country situated to the side of progress in the world and especially with regard to its armed forces." It was "isolated already in tsarist times," and its commanders and political leaders "do not understand what contemporary war is."



"They know that there are new technologies" and tactics, Felgengauer says, but up to now, they train their officers to fight the way they did in World War II, even though the advanced world has moved on. And it will be a real tragedy if they conclude that they achieved some great new success in Crimea. That is "an invention and a scarecrow," not a reality.



Given that, it is "of course, possible" that some in Moscow may think they can fight and win a major war. But that is a delusion, Felgengauer says. What would happen then is what has happened before when there have been clashes between "contemporary armies" with those of a more antiquated kind.



Indeed, the independent analyst says, such a war might look like a clash "of the Spanish and the Indians or the Zulus with spears against the English with machineguns" or of Saddam Husseyn with his gigantic army agains the much smaller but much better armed and led forces of the American led coalition.



Emblematic of this old-fashioned approach in Russia, he continues, is the belief among many Russian commanders that the economic crisis will make it easier for them to fill the ranks because those who can't find jobs in the private sector will be happy to become soldiers. That is not how a modern army is complected.



Moscow's current military thinking reflects the notion of "a Malthusian trap," the view that there will necessarily be a fight for resources and that Russia must expand to have more and be ready to defend itself against others who will be interested in gaining access to the resources on its territory.



Moscow views the US as "the main opponent," with China a distant second, Felgengauer says. It is thus building a peripheral defense, in the first instance in Ukraine. "Losing Ukraine" would thus be a breakdown in that perimeter," and consequently, he says, Moscow will work to "hold Ukraine at any cost."



It would have been easier for Moscow to do so if it were further along on its rearmament campaign, perhaps in 2018-2020, but that doesn't mean it won't do what it has to do in order to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of the West.



Not surprisingly, NATO views what Russia as doing as something which means the Western alliance "will prepare for a war with Russia." Two weeks ago, the alliance's defense ministers, including those from Greece and Hungary, voted for that and voted to create a rapid reaction force in Poland to be prepared to deal with any Russian move against the Baltic countries.



As far as Ukraine is concerned, it will develop as "proxy wars" typically do because what is taking place in the Donbas is "a proxy war like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the Near East conflict. The Cold War has returned, and the tactic of the Cold War has returned as well." Those like Putin who began their careers in the 1970s "understand this quite well."



In the coming weeks, there will be "an unstable armistice" because both sides need "an operational pause." But it won't last long and the fighting will intensify again in the late spring or early summer, Felgengauer says. Russia's goal is obvious: "the reestablishment of control over Ukraine." And that means it is interested "not in Debaltsevo but in Kyiv."



Until Moscow achieves that goal, the conflict will continue, and everyone should remember that 'proxy wars can last for decades," Felgengauer warns in conclusion.
Window on Eurasia -- New Series: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Says
 
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sgarg

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Its a disinformation piece. Typical psychological warfare.

None of this will help Kiev.

95% of Russian military power is vested in the nuclear weapons. You can harp about the 5% conventional arms, but that does not help at all.
The conventional arms become significant ONLY if Russia embarks on a world-conquering spree which is completely unlikely.
 

sgarg

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

West needs to bring its aviation in Ukraine to win. However if West does that, the conflict will go nuclear at the first available pretext.

It is a catch-22 situation. The only hope West has to win is by economic pressure. The future will tell if that will succeed.

However major disadvantage of economic pressure is that it makes Russian public anti-West. And USA may still lose the Ukraine conflict.
 

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

How Powerful Is Russia's Military?


After years of neglect after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow is undertaking a major overhaul of its armed forces that could have regional consequences. By Jonathan Masters

The Russian military suffered years of neglect after the Soviet collapse and no longer casts the shadow of a global superpower. However, the Russian armed forces are in the midst of a historic overhaul with significant consequences for Eurasian politics and security. Russian officials say the reforms are necessary to bring a Cold War-era military into the twenty-first century, but many Western analysts fear they will enable Moscow to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, often relying on force to coerce its weaker neighbors. Some say Russian interventions in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014—both former Soviet republics seeking closer ties to the West—demonstrate that President Vladimir Putin is prepared to use military force to reestablish Russian hegemony in its near abroad.

What are Russian conventional military capabilities?

Both in terms of troops and weapons, Russian conventional forces dwarf those of its Eastern European and Central Asian neighbors (see Table 1), many of which are relatively weak ex-Soviet republics closely allied with Moscow. Russia has a military pact with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, formed in 1992. Moscow also stations significant troops in the region: Armenia (3,200), Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (7,000), Moldova's separatist Transnistria region (1,500), Kyrgyzstan (500), and Tajikistan (5,000).

Table 1


As part of defense reforms, most Russian ground forces are to be professionalized and reorganized into formations of a few thousand troops for low- and medium-intensity conflicts. But for the foreseeable future many will remain one-year conscripts with limited training (military service is compulsory for Russian men aged eighteen to twenty-seven). The Airborne Assault Forces, which comprises about thirty-five thousand troops and whose commander answers directly to Putin, is Russia's elite crisis-reaction force. A Special Operations Command, also a reserve of Putin, was created in 2013 to manage special operators outside Russian borders.

Moscow is intent on remilitarizing its Arctic territory and is restoring Soviet-era airfields and ports to help protect important hydrocarbon resources and shipping lanes. (Russia has the world's largest fleet of icebreakers, which are regularly required to navigate these waters.) In late 2013, Putin ordered the creation of a new strategic military command in the Russian Arctic.


Meanwhile, rearmament has been slow, and much of the military's equipment remains decades old. The once formidable Soviet navy is now little more than a coastal protection force, experts say. All of the navy's large vessels, including its flagship and sole aircraft carrier, the non-nuclear Kuznetsov, are holdovers from the Cold War. (By comparison, the United States has ten nuclear carriers and builds several new warships each year.) Russian air power will also be limited, at least in the short term. Aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi is developing several new advanced warplanes, including a fifth-generation "stealth" fighter (the T-50), but production has been sluggish in some cases, and most of the current air force dates from the 1980s.

Russia has made the modernization of its air and space defenses a top priority of the rearmament program, establishing a consolidated Aerospace Defense Command in 2011. The mainstay of this defense network is the S-400, a long- to medium-range surface-to-air missile system, to be deployed near Moscow and strategic positions along Russia's perimeter. A more advanced S-500 is in development.

What are Russian nuclear capabilities?

Russia's vast nuclear arsenal remains on par with the United States and is the country's only residual great power feature, military experts say.
Moscow has about 1,500 strategic warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarines, and heavy bombers. These numbers comply with the so-called New START treaty with the United States, which came into force February 2011. Russia is also believed to have some 2,000 nonstrategic (also referred to as tactical, theater, or battlefield) nuclear warheads.

Russia leaned on its nuclear deterrent as its conventional force languished in the years after the Soviet collapse. NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 added to fears in the Kremlin that the U.S.-led alliance might impede Russia's ability to act in the region. Moscow appeared to lower its nuclear threshold in 2000, permitting the use of such weapons in response to major conventional attacks. By comparison, Soviet doctrine reserved nuclear weapons for use only in retaliation for a nuclear attack.

Much of the Russian nuclear deterrent is being modernized: a new class of ballistic missile submarine is coming into service; some strategic bombers are being upgraded; and there are plans to replace all Soviet-era ICBMs over the next decade or so.

What is the Russian military budget?

At close to $90 billion for 2013, the Russian military budget has more than doubled over the last decade (see Figure 2), trailing behind only China ($188 billion) and the United States ($640 billion), according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI). (Data includes funding for armed services, paramilitary forces, military space activities, foreign military aid, and military R&D.)

Defense spending has benefited from a surge in global energy prices over the last decade, as oil and gas account for more than half of Russia's federal budget revenues, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 2014, Russia is about half way through a ten-year $700 billion weapons modernization program, with priorities given to strategic nuclear weapons, fighter aircraft, ships and submarines, air defenses, communications and intelligence.

But analysts say recent spending should be taken in context. First, defense outlays plunged dramatically during the 1990s and remain well below Soviet levels. Second, Russia still spends a fraction of what the United States and many of its allies spend per soldier. Third, high inflation rates in the defense industry as well as endemic corruption consume a large portion of newly allocated resources. And, lastly, Russian defense spending is closely tied to global energy prices, which can fluctuate dramatically. Many analysts link the two-thirds drop in oil prices in the mid-1980s to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.


What prompted the reforms?

The five-day conflict with Georgia in August 2008 exposed major deficiencies—in command-and-control systems, hardware, weaponry, and intelligence—and confirmed that Russia's mass-mobilization military, where millions of conscripts could marshal to protect the motherland, remained outdated.

"The Georgian war was arguably the last war of the twentieth century for Russia's armed forces; in the sense that it was largely fought using organizations, tactics, and equipment designed in the last century," wrote Roger N. McDermott, a Eurasian military expert at the Jamestown Foundation, in 2009.

In the weeks after the conflict, Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov, a powerful reformer appointed by Putin, recommitted the military to a lengthy overhaul involving massive personnel cuts (from 1.2 million to 1 million), rearmament, and reorganization into a professional force capable of responding quickly to acute crises.

Experts assessing the status of reform in late 2013 say it has lacked strategic direction and suffered from major planning failures, and they forecast a number of challenges related to personnel, funding, and procurement in years ahead. However, they conclude the overhaul has made tremendous strides. "It is undoubtedly the case that post-[military] transformation Russia will have a very different force available from the one that went into action in Georgia in 2008, and one that is more effective, flexible, adaptable, and scalable for achieving Russia's foreign policy aims," wrote coauthors of a Strategic Studies Institute report.



What does Russia consider threats?

Russian leaders acknowledge that there is now little threat of a large-scale NATO land invasion— a top concern of the Cold War—but they repeatedly criticize the bloc's eastward expansion, including its plans to roll out a ballistic missile defense shield across Europe. The United States, which developed the technology, says the system is only designed to guard against limited missile attacks from "rogue" states like Iran, but Moscow believes the technology could be updated and may tip the strategic nuclear balance. Putin and his military leaders have also frequently expressed concern with conventional precision strike weapons being developed by rivals.


Moscow believes the so-called color revolutions—a series of popular uprisings in former Soviet satellites—were concerted attempts by the United States and its allies to erode Russian influence in the region. "Russian foreign policy appears to be based on a combination of fears of popular protest and opposition to U.S. world hegemony, both of which are seen as threatening the Putin regime," writes Dmitry Gorenburg, an expert on the Russian military at CNA, a Virginia-based research institution.

But many western and Russian analysts say Moscow's concerns with NATO are often overstated and divert attention from more practical threats like those looming on Russia's southern periphery, including ethnic insurgencies in the North Caucasus region, weapons proliferation, and a potential resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

What is U.S. and NATO strategy toward Russia?

Alliance leaders are reassessing defenses in Europe, particularly in the East. Since the annexation of Crimea, NATO has quadrupled (to sixteen) the number of warplanes policing the Baltics, which have witnessed a major surge in provocations involving Russian planes. NATO also announced plans for a new rapid reaction force—the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF)—of about five thousand troops. Officials say the VJTF should be fully operational in early 2016 and will serve as an elite subset of the NATO Response Force composed of thirteen thousand troops.

Some analysts recommend the alliance adopt a strategy of containment not unlike that of the Cold War. "Give up any hope of a return to business as usual; Boost the defense of Baltic states and Poland; Expose Russian corruption in the West; Impose sweeping visa sanctions on the Russian elite; Help Ukraine; and Reboot the Atlantic Alliance," writes British journalist and Russia expert Edward Lucas.

CFR's Janine Davidson, an expert on military and defense strategy, says that NATO members need to prepare for the type of guerilla tactics Russia has used in eastern Ukraine. "NATO must consider what happens if and when these well-armed, unmarked, [Special Operations Forces]-like, suspiciously disciplined masked men turn up in a NATO nation, such as Estonia or Latvia (respectively 24 and 27 percent ethnic Russian) and commence another creeping invasion," she writes.

At the same time, CNA's Gorenburg says Baltic governments should be wary of Russian subversion. "There is a danger that in focusing too much on strengthening military defenses, the Baltic states and NATO will neglect the non-military tools in Russia's toolkit, including promoting and funding Euroskeptic political movements, encouraging radical groups to commit violent acts to create an environment of disorder, and using information warfare techniques to strengthen anti-government and anti-EU attitudes among minority populations," he told CFR.

How Powerful Is Russia's Military? - Defense One
 

jouni

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Russia has 1400 combat aircraft. Source close to FiAF estimated that in crisis situation Russia can get only 260 planes capable operating in Finnish airspace against 90 Finnish planes, so knowing FiAF level it is pretty even match. 1400 are on a paper only.
 

Razor

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Russia has 1400 combat aircraft. Source close to FiAF estimated that in crisis situation Russia can get only 260 planes capable operating in Finnish airspace against 90 Finnish planes, so knowing FiAF level it is pretty even match. 1400 are on a paper only.
1. Post paper source; makes it look credible. Unfortunately trust factor here is much lower than finnish forums, where stuff can be peddled at whim. So here sources are scrutinized.
2. Did the paper say "1400 are on a paper only" as you have mentioned above?
3. Considering Russia's size and the fact that it has the longest border, touching the most number of countries, it shouldn't surprise you that only 260 planes can be operated in finnish airspace in crises situation (not as per me but as per your unsubstantiated claims.)
4. What really matters is not just numbers but also leadership and planning: yours is pretty good and centralized (NATO command, yes finland) but so is russian (siloviki?)
 

salute

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Russia has 1400 combat aircraft. Source close to FiAF estimated that in crisis situation Russia can get only 260 planes capable operating in Finnish airspace against 90 Finnish planes, so knowing FiAF level it is pretty even match. 1400 are on a paper only.
lol to that estimation ,

finland have no navy or attack helicopters ,

also russia have missiles of various kinds in great numbers ,

nuclear weapons ,

and finland have something like 55 jets not gonna do much or defence forget about offence ,

if putin unleashes his war dogs on finland in few days finland will be in complete defeat.
 

Khagesh

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

We in India, mockingly say often, that if we all piss in the Indus river then the whole of Pakistan would be washed away.

Wonder if any river flows from Russia and into Finland!

More seriously, what kind of war is this against Russia? People just declare on a sheet of paper that Russia cannot do this or that and is weak. Well then go in and fight. Fut kyun jati hai?
 

jouni

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

1. Post paper source; makes it look credible. Unfortunately trust factor here is much lower than finnish forums, where stuff can be peddled at whim. So here sources are scrutinized.
2. Did the paper say "1400 are on a paper only" as you have mentioned above?
3. Considering Russia's size and the fact that it has the longest border, touching the most number of countries, it shouldn't surprise you that only 260 planes can be operated in finnish airspace in crises situation (not as per me but as per your unsubstantiated claims.)
4. What really matters is not just numbers but also leadership and planning: yours is pretty good and centralized (NATO command, yes finland) but so is russian (siloviki?)
https://ammattisotilas.wordpress.com/2012/08/22/ilmasodan-lyhyt-oppimaara/
Here is the source, it is all there. Read the comments section also.
 

jouni

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

lol to that estimation ,

finland have no navy or attack helicopters ,

also russia have missiles of various kinds in great numbers ,

nuclear weapons ,

and finland have something like 55 jets not gonna do much or defence forget about offence ,

if putin unleashes his war dogs on finland in few days finland will be in complete defeat.
No Navy? Our Navy is capable of defending our coasts. Our Missile boat fleet is the best in the world
Attack helos was rejected as not suitable in our terrain.

 
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salute

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

No Navy? Our Navy is capable of defending our coasts. Our Missile boat fleet is the best in the world
Attack helos was rejected as not suitable in our terrain.

fleet ???

finland navy dont have a sh*t,

not a single aircraft carrier,

not a single submarine,

not a single battleship,

not a single destroyer,

not a single frigate,

not a single corvette,

now like always you gonna say all these are not suitable to your terrain too, :lol:

just three missile crafts and 3 each minesweepers and mine-layers and you call it navy , :lol:

buddy bangladesh navy culd be bigger than finland navy. :lol:
 
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jouni

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

fleet ???

finland navy dont have a sh*t,

not a single aircraft carrier,

not a single submarine,

not a single battleship,

not a single destroyer,

not a single frigate,

not a single corvette,

now like always you gonna say all these are suitable to your terrain too, :lol:

just three missile crafts and 3 each minesweepers and mine-layers and you call it navy , :lol:

buddy bangladesh navy culd be bigger than finland navy. :lol:
Take it easy....you are welcome to bring your Navy here.... There is plenty of space in the bottom of the sea by the wrecks of British and Russian ships...
 

sgarg

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Why every thread has to be hijacked by @jouni. How is Finland's military relevant to this thread??

If @jouni wants to prove his military superiority, let him go to Ukraine and fight.
 
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Khagesh

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

The discussion is about Finnish Navy taking on the Russian Navy.

I love the Finns. Nokia was good. How do you like the sound of it - Finnish finish Russia.

But why bring Indian Navy into it? We don't want to fight the Russians it is the Finns who want to.
 

rock127

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Why every thread has to be hijacked by @jouni. How is Finland's military relevant to this thread??

If @jouni wants to prove his military superiority, let him go to Ukraine and fight.
Don't underestimate common man of Finland.

@jouni can single handily defeat Communist Russia on his own in 1 single mission like below.His friend @Gabriel92 might join in his mission.

He is no less than John Rambo or John Matrix. Communist Russia is surviving on the mercy of Finland. Everyone bow down to Mighty Finland the Shupa Powwa of Universe. :hail: :hail: :hail:





 
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jouni

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Don't underestimate common man of Finland.

@jouni can single handily defeat Communist Russia on his own in 1 single mission like below.His friend @Gabriel92 might join in his mission.

He is no less than John Rambo or John Matrix. Communist Russia is surviving on the mercy of Finland. Everyone bow down to Mighty Finland the Shupa Powwa of Universe. :hail: :hail: :hail:





Those Amis are just amateurs compared to Simo Häyhä, he had 700 confirmed kills, 500 with rifle and 200 with SMG. Could you please stop this nonsense, I dont get why you always try to turn everything to Fin Rus competition.

 
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SafedSagar

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

Don't underestimate common man of Finland.

@jouni can single handily defeat Communist Russia on his own in 1 single mission like below.His friend @Gabriel92 might join in his mission.

He is no less than John Rambo or John Matrix. Communist Russia is surviving on the mercy of Finland. Everyone bow down to Mighty Finland the Shupa Powwa of Universe. :hail: :hail: :hail:





I laughed so hard i can't even describe.
 
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Gabriel92

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Re: Russian Army Currently 'Unprepared for Modern War,' Felgengauer Sa

An army of 5.000 Simo Häyhä can take out the entire russian army. :peace: :peace: :peace:
 

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