The WarZone edition promptly reacted to the news about the Russian Su-27, which fired a missile near an English reconnaissance aircraft. Here is what they write:
“The UK Department of Defense reports that a Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter “fired” a missile on contact (here the word encounter is used, which can be translated as “collision”, “skirmish”, as well as “meeting” and “contact” - I chose the latter ) with the electronic intelligence aircraft RC-135W Rivet Joint of the Royal Air Force of Great Britain. The incident took place over the Black Sea, where tensions between Russian forces and NATO have soared, including previous contacts involving British warships.
However, a stray missile, fired by accident or otherwise, could very well lead to a deadly escalation. Be that as it may, as a result of the incident, RAF RC-135 aircraft during operations over the Black Sea are now accompanied by Typhoon fighters.
crash
Speaking to other MPs in the House of Commons today, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace gave some details of an incident that took place in international airspace over the Black Sea on 29 September. However, many aspects of what happened remain unclear. The use of the term "released" does not make it clear whether the missile in question actually launched from the rails or whether it somehow blew off and fell unguided and/or with the engine inoperative.
Wallace explained that during the incident, an "unarmed RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint" flying from its RAF Waddington base in the United Kingdom "interacted" with two Russian Su-27s that tracked it for a total of about 90 minutes. This is quite standard procedure for such flights in international airspace. However, one of these Russian fighters "launched a missile in the vicinity of RAF Rivet Joint, but out of sight."
The wording of this last paragraph is also curious, as it is not clear whether the Minister is describing the launch of the missile out of sight at all, or out of sight from the RC-135W, or both.
The degree of danger to the RC-135W aircraft and its crew is also not very clear, although the UK Secretary of Defense called it a "potentially dangerous collision." At the same time, he appears to have made an effort to play down its broader meaning, stating that it does not count as a "deliberate escalation".
As we said earlier, the Rivet Joint, which is also operated by the US Air Force, is an extremely powerful platform for electronic intelligence and electronic information gathering. They are equipped to collect data on the type and location of various signal sources, such as radars, to help determine the combat composition and deployment of RES units and subunits, with a detailed description of the air defense, control and other capabilities of a potential adversary. They also have the ability to intercept messages. As such, they play a vital role in monitoring Russia's activities in the Black Sea, Crimea and the wider region.
No details about the type of rocket are given. If the Russian aircraft was indeed a Su-27 (as opposed to the more modern Flanker variant), then its missile armament would almost certainly have consisted only of older types of air-to-air missiles, mainly R-27 medium/long range (AA-10 Alamo) with semi-active radar or infrared guidance, as well as short-range R-73 (AA-11 Archer), using infrared seeker.
Again, we do not know if the missile in question fired its own engine, although it almost certainly had a working engine and warhead. If that were indeed the case, then any of these types of weapons could potentially bring down the clumsy RC-135W, even if the missile had been fired unintentionally.
It is these arguments that Russia has provided to the United Kingdom to explain this event. According to Wallace, Russia attributed the rocket launch to a "technical malfunction." Incidents of involuntary missile launches, while not unheard of, are usually attributed to pilot error rather than a technical problem.
The UK Secretary of Defense said:
"Our analysis showed it was a glitch."
At this stage, we also do not know how the crew of the RC-135W was alerted to the missile launch, or if they even knew about it at the time.
Nevertheless, the RC-135W completed its sortie and returned safely to base. According to Flightradar24, the Rivet Joint in question was a serial ZZ664, and the total duration of the sortie was 10 hours and 30 minutes.
“I communicated my concerns directly to my Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Defense Staff in Moscow,”
Wallace said.
He added:
“In my letter, I made it clear that the aircraft is unarmed, is in international airspace, and follows a pre-announced flight route. I have thought it prudent to suspend these patrols until a response is received from the Russian state.
The answer of the Russian Defense Minister dated October 10 states that an investigation into the circumstances of the incident was carried out and a technical malfunction of the Su-27 fighter was stated. They also acknowledge that the incident took place in international airspace."
Following a report from the UK Department of Defense on the incident, it was decided to resume regular RC-135W patrols, albeit now with cover provided by Typhoon fighters. The presence of these fighters near the Rivet Joint has become visible in the past few days on flight tracking websites. Wallace also confirmed that information about the incident was passed on to the United Kingdom's allies, although it is not clear what action they took.
“We welcome Russia's recognition that this was in international airspace. The UK has been flying regular combat missions with RAF Rivet Joint in international airspace over the Black Sea since 2019 and we will continue to do so.”
Wallace added.
While both Moscow and Russia appear to agree (at least publicly) that the missile launch was accidental, the Su-27s have some track record, in particular with regard to brazen and sometimes dangerous intercepts. over the Black Sea. Back in 2020, Su-27s performed a maneuver, which is sometimes called a “headbutt” (the term headbutt is used, which literally means “headbutt”, but I suspect that the pilots have something else in mind), in the immediate vicinity of US Air Force B-52H, again, in international airspace. One video clip of the incident shows a Flanker performing a similar maneuver directly in front of a B-52 from incredibly close range. Needless to say, the Pentagon did not like the behavior of the Russians.
Su-27 and B-52
(Following are discussions about the Crimea and the events in Ukraine, which I will not cite, because everyone already knows about this. Let's go straight to the conclusions, with which it is difficult to disagree).
Taken as a whole, the latest incident is a dramatic reminder that the likelihood of escalation between Russian forces and those of NATO and its allies is very high and likely to remain so only as long as (special military operation) rages on in Ukraine. A malfunction, such as this missile incident allegedly was, increases the already significant chances of some kind of miscalculation or misjudgment, which can have much more serious consequences.
We contacted the UK Department of Defense for further details of this incident but were told that for security reasons no further information would be forthcoming beyond the Minister of Defense's comments. However, if more details become available, we will update this story accordingly."
Well, here it is. So far, everything is very careful.