Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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ww2historian

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Historian bhai, just a suggestion. Please use 'could have', 'would have' etc instead of 'could of', 'would of'. I know I know, grammar nazi and all, but 'could of' doesn't make any sense and ruins otherwise very informative posts. Just my humble opinion.
I can do that. I'm a product of the American education system.
 

hit&run

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Loitering Drones still have place and very much. High Altitude drones? It depends on how robust is your Mobile Air defence. We are no Russia though. We cant replenish equipment lost as fast as Russia/China or US can.
If Lotering won't survive then add High Altitude Drone to question my assertion. Then add a replacement rate theory to shift the goal post.

Simply answer Yes or no. Will drones be able to survive highly contested Skies maned by ground forces with Air defence cover?

The USA has refused to provide Ukraine help for the very same reasons I mentioned a few years ago.

A drone capable of targeting and delivering an effective package with precision costs around 1000 USD. The package itself is tailor-made. Then comes the operator or operating infrastructure. Then comes the visibility, stealth noise and speed at which it will occur to the forces. The ground-based towed electronic jammers will be enough to burn their electronics.

One of my posts coincidentally saw the same change of strategy by the Russians to use small artillery or big mortar attacks becoming a mainstay to soften Ukrainian defences are the only archaic yet practical option to support kinetic action. The use of the Air Force however changes everything especially if founded upon establishing air superiority/supremacy.
 

AnantS

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If Lotering won't survive then add High Altitude Drone to question my assertion. Then add a replacement rate theory to shift the goal post.

Simply answer Yes or no. Will drones be able to survive highly contested Skies maned by ground forces with Air defence cover?

The USA has refused to provide Ukraine help for the very same reasons I mentioned a few years ago.

A drone capable of targeting and delivering an effective package with precision costs around 1000 USD. The package itself is tailor-made. Then comes the operator or operating infrastructure. Then comes the visibility, stealth noise and speed at which it will occur to the forces. The ground-based towed electronic jammers will be enough to burn their electronics.

One of my posts coincidentally saw the same change of strategy by the Russians to use small artillery or big mortar attacks becoming a mainstay to soften Ukrainian defences are the only archaic yet practical option to support kinetic action. The use of the Air Force however changes everything especially if founded upon establishing air superiority/supremacy.
I shall revisit and try to reply in detail later. But to clarify I used statement in generic way - not just specific to Russia and Ukraine context. And more over this this is war gaming question. Its way out of my range and pay grade. And only people adept who day in and out plan tactics for the tab - can answer that better.
Loitering weapons are hear to stay. Russia used Shahed and is using Lancet to great effect. Even rigged DJI drones scored some small precision hits both sides. You see we do a mistake of judging capability of a weapon alone. What I am trying to say is its question of who is using that tool that matters. WHo has the ability to fast replenish air defence and offence stocks in war of attrition. Weapons' should be seen as an instruments in an orchestra called war. The timing , paring of the instrument matters at outcome. Forget drones - at this juncture if High altitude balloon appears on Ukraine Sky - with China man throwing hypothetical grenades at troops below - what shall be the adversary action. Use expensive S300 missiles or risk sending an aircraft or ignore it! Now increase the number of such balloons. Throw china man out and replace him with Swarm weapons. What shall be UKR reaction? Again Now club the balloons with barrage of Tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and throw in air raid too. What shall be priority of air defence - which it would prioritise fight first? Now if we think this decision becomes even more difficult - if your adversary has put dent on you air defence through earlier barrage attacks. Adversary will be hard pressed to prioritise targets. Air Defence / EW are the first targets of capable adversary. He shall be earmarking adversary's high radiating assets long back via combo of satellites (SAR/optical) and human intel - even before war. And shall be taking out at the first instance. The whole scenario becomes even more lopsided - if one has robust economy and economies of scale to replenish war stocks.

Russia here clearly is late to drone game - it has had to rely on imports from Iran to China a lot for most drones. I havent seen any high altitude drones from Russia used here. US is not supplying high altitude drones, because Ukraine could not soften Russian Air Defense. Neither it has necessary tools/Weapons that need to go along with it. Ukraine needs is Rockets and Mobile Artillery. More than that skilled troops. Its the latter that have been lost a lot during early this war. Ukraine needs boots on ground. US being the chalak lomdi - is simply slowly washing off its hands.
 

AnantS

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Apple was late to the mobile game. Ab movie aur baki hai.
Exactly! Thats what I am saying Drones and Loitering Munitions are here to stay. With advancement in AI and computation power. Development of Drones shall mimic manned fighter from WW2 to Jet age!
 
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They are saving their best tanks to meet the more advanced NATO tanks that Ukraine has received which makes sense. You want to preserve your best equipment unless necessary. That way you avoid unnecessary wear and tear and you can make sure that they are ready when you need them to. It is called being economical with resources and that's a viable military strategy.
This means Russia is ready for a long drawnout conflict.
 

Master Chief

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Yet Another Russian assault on Avdiivka gone wrong.. Javelins blow up Russian armoured column

 

Master Chief

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majority of weapons provided are old used weapons nothing top of the line, but when govt is
opening the wallet they pay top of the line prices.
Yes.. The weapons most in demand are mass produced weapons Like Artillery and Ammo.. They are not niche weapons with high margins.. But, still with escalating US deliveries of Tanks, Himars.. and aircraft in the future, there is quite a lot of money to be made for US MIC
 
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Yes.. The weapons most in demand are mass produced weapons Like Artillery and Ammo.. They are not niche weapons with high margins.. But, still with escalating US deliveries of Tanks, Himars.. and aircraft in the future, there is quite a lot of money to be made for US MIC
They wouldn't be escalating if there wasn't.
 

SwordOfDarkness

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If Lotering won't survive then add High Altitude Drone to question my assertion. Then add a replacement rate theory to shift the goal post.

Simply answer Yes or no. Will drones be able to survive highly contested Skies maned by ground forces with Air defence cover?

The USA has refused to provide Ukraine help for the very same reasons I mentioned a few years ago.

A drone capable of targeting and delivering an effective package with precision costs around 1000 USD. The package itself is tailor-made. Then comes the operator or operating infrastructure. Then comes the visibility, stealth noise and speed at which it will occur to the forces. The ground-based towed electronic jammers will be enough to burn their electronics.

One of my posts coincidentally saw the same change of strategy by the Russians to use small artillery or big mortar attacks becoming a mainstay to soften Ukrainian defences are the only archaic yet practical option to support kinetic action. The use of the Air Force however changes everything especially if founded upon establishing air superiority/supremacy.
Anything that flies high enough to be distinguishable from ground clutter and tree cover, will get shot down by a decent air defence net.

So HALE,MALE etc are useless in war, except as naval platforms for anti sub roles near your own coast (within 100km of your coast) as naval AD is rather thin compared to land AD.

However, loitering drones are very good, as they are low flying, low cost. Less likelyhood of being shot, less loss if shot down.

CAS is still the best way to do air support, with helis and attack aircraft. However, the loss of those platforms is a big blow and they take time to train on. Drones are similar to mk=obile games so its easier to train for those.
 
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As longterm partnership with US fades, Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its diplomacy – and recent deals with China, Iran and Russia fit this strategy


Moscow to host Syria, Turkey, Iran, Russia meeting
 

FactsPlease

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Russia seeking munitions from North Korea, Kirby says
Russia Nears Major Shahed Drone Deal With Iran
32 years ago, if you told me Russia (ex-Soviet) need to buy weapons and ammo from N. Korea and Iran, I defintely would slam you bit*h to hell. Nor would I believe that USA need few years to refill its 155mm shell stock.
In addition to geopolitics, a new ear has come - it's more than semiconductor, more than low-end drones put into battlefiled, and even more than "hollow out" of developed countries' MIC.
I believe evey real general in the world ever sleep well for past few months.
 

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