Russia Ukraine War 2022

[NutCracker]

Yes, we are ready to fight to the last man. Because this is our country!
View attachment 197465

Then why tonnes of videos floating in which conscript recruiters are handing over paper to unwilling people and even dragging them on the ground , out of their home.

Why YOU ARE NOT AT THE WARFRONT instead of that unwilling guy being dragged.

 

[Anirbann Datta]

A new front might get opened ( anywhere in the world), power-axis tilding!!!

 

[Blademaster]

Bruh stop.

There is a thread for the political stuff, was created when Varzone got out of hand. Please go and discuss there, and leave this thread to military developments.

Lots of stuff happening near adviivka and all, but all we get here is "you nazi!" "you more nazi!!" :/

I am discussing military developments. It is not my fault that you cannot apprehend the military implications of my posts. I got nothing to do with the Nazi argument. So leave me out of your rants and stop dragging me into your petty complaints.

 

[Blademaster]

Look certain observations:
1. EVEN assuming Ukraine lost 100k soldiers in a year, Ukraine can sustain this for 10 more years if they continue to get large lethal and non lethal aid from the west.

2. Russia's very lofty goals of Demilitarization, with a permanently neutral Ukraine, with NATO and NATO weapons out forever does not match Russian capabilities going by their performance in the past 6 months, given ever increasing lethal aid coming from NATO. Ukraine does not yet need to make these sacrifices and give up on its European dream (which most Ukranians still support ), as AFU has not yet faced a decisive defeat by Russia.

3. Ukraine will not be able to reconquer all the lost lands, but unless Russia has a never before seen huge force hidden, which it can unleash, it does not seem that Russia can decisively defeat the AFU. At the current pace, Russia might take 2 years to even conquer all of Donetsk... Yes, momentum can sometimes shift suddenly.But, without a northern vector from Kharkhiv, I don't see Sloviansk and Kramatorsk falling in 2023, even if Bakhmut falls..

Wow even after all this time, you cannot apprehend Russia's basic goals? I see it. Russia is depopulating Ukraine of manpower and is setting up killing zones where the Ukrainians are stupid enough to go into and get killed without endangering Russian lives. With an army, you can have a country. Without an army, you got no country.

It is an old Mongol trick. Can't believe that you didn't pick up on that.

 

[Knowitall]

Wow even after all this time, you cannot apprehend Russia's basic goals? I see it. Russia is depopulating Ukraine of manpower and is setting up killing zones where the Ukrainians are stupid enough to go into and get killed without endangering Russian lives. With an army, you can have a country. Without an army, you got no country.

It is an old Mongol trick. Can't believe that you didn't pick up on that.

Bro what??

Depopulating Ukraine you say? At current rates it would take an other 10-20 years to depopulate Ukraine.

Where did you get the info of not endangering Russian lives?? The reason we see less Russian casualties is because the brunt of deaths have been registered by LPR DPR Chechens and now wagnar.

There is no grand strategy the Russians don't have enough manpower and the Ukrainians lack equipment meaning both are stuck in a battle of attrition.

 

[SwordOfDarkness]

I am discussing military developments. It is not my fault that you cannot apprehend the military implications of my posts. I got nothing to do with the Nazi argument. So leave me out of your rants and stop dragging me into your petty complaints.

No, you are simply arguing for the sake of arguing. Telling a member to prepare to die is not very constructive, neither is it of educational value.

Lets keep the conversation civil, shall we? And have a good discussion instead of unnecessary aggression.

 

[Master Chief]

Wow even after all this time, you cannot apprehend Russia's basic goals? I see it. Russia is depopulating Ukraine of manpower and is setting up killing zones where the Ukrainians are stupid enough to go into and get killed without endangering Russian lives. With an army, you can have a country. Without an army, you got no country.

It is an old Mongol trick. Can't believe that you didn't pick up on that.

At this rate depopulating Ukraine will take a couple of decades.. Production of hundreds of thousands of shells and artillery pieces is no rocket science..If this war continues for another 3 years, NATO+South Korea + Japan will have ramped up on artillery and shell production, and Russia's firepower advantage that it has enjoyed will disappear..
Even for a 13 day war in 1971, the pressure India faced from even friends like Soviet Union to finish the war quickly was huge.. You think a 13 year war will be easy on Russia ?

 

[SwordOfDarkness]

Heres my 2c on two important cities under attack:

Minor encirclement attempts on adviivka since march beginning, but reports indicate heavy artillery barrage in last few days. Russia may be attempting to isolate the troops here like in Bakhmut.

In bakhmut:

Slow creeping gains in Bakhmut, defense is more or less impossible. Fall back to Chasiv Yar will happen, though it will be interesting to see if chasiv yar will be assaulted head on or the two outward bulges that are advancing slowly will be used to encircle that city too, similar to Bakhmut. Few artillery hits have been recorded in Chasiv yar, I suspect from the southern group.


Whether or not defending Bakhmut was a good move will be decided by the strength of defenses at chasiv yar, if it holds, the sacrifice was worth, else they are meaningless losses.

 

[ww2historian]

Yes, we are ready to fight to the last man. Because this is our country!
View attachment 197465

Last man? But you showed a women with a rifle. Well the US was concerned that Xi Jinping's visit would cause the killing to stop. So, there it is, the US still supports the killing, and is really concerned it might stop. Listen, to what this evil clown said it, we are concerned about a ceasefire.

 

[Blademaster]

No, you are simply arguing for the sake of arguing. Telling a member to prepare to die is not very constructive, neither is it of educational value.

Lets keep the conversation civil, shall we? And have a good discussion instead of unnecessary aggression.

I am pointing out the stupidity of his statements by using his logic against him. That is of educational value.

I didn't engage in unnecessary aggression. Akim did.

 

[Corvus Splendens]

Strikers in Ukraine.
View attachment 197455

Lav VI donated by Canada

 

[Blademaster]

Bro what??

Depopulating Ukraine you say? At current rates it would take an other 10-20 years to depopulate Ukraine.

Where did you get the info of not endangering Russian lives?? The reason we see less Russian casualties is because the brunt of deaths have been registered by LPR DPR Chechens and now wagnar.

There is no grand strategy the Russians don't have enough manpower and the Ukrainians lack equipment meaning both are stuck in a battle of attrition.

I am including LPR DPR Chechens and Wagner. On a ratio scale, Russians with those groups are winning against Ukraine in terms of casualties. Do not be fooled by those western reports. Ukraine is steadily losing its manpower. And of course it is a battle of attrition which Russia is winning. As for the necessary manpower, Russia is busy training its recruits to properly prepare them for the incoming battles.

Look at how much population Ukraine lost since the war began. They are not coming back. And once Ukraine launches its great counteroffensive, Russia will bring out everything to kill that counteroffensive and Ukraine will have no arrows left in its quiver and that frees up a lot of land for Russia to take over. Try to understand the implications of what I am saying.

 

[ww2historian]

Look certain observations:
1. EVEN assuming Ukraine lost 100k soldiers in a year, Ukraine can sustain this for 10 more years if they continue to get large lethal and non lethal aid from the west.

2. Russia's very lofty goals of Demilitarization, with a permanently neutral Ukraine, with NATO and NATO weapons out forever does not match Russian capabilities going by their performance in the past 6 months, given ever increasing lethal aid coming from NATO. Ukraine does not yet need to make these sacrifices and give up on its European dream (which most Ukranians still support ), as AFU has not yet faced a decisive defeat by Russia.

3. Ukraine will not be able to reconquer all the lost lands, but unless Russia has a never before seen huge force hidden, which it can unleash, it does not seem that Russia can decisively defeat the AFU. At the current pace, Russia might take 2 years to even conquer all of Donetsk... Yes, momentum can sometimes shift suddenly.But, without a northern vector from Kharkhiv, I don't see Sloviansk and Kramatorsk falling in 2023, even if Bakhmut falls..

I'm assuming you meant a 100k dead was the very highest estimate. Col. Macgregor thinks it's closer to 250 kia, and another 3 to 4 hundred thousand wounded to a degree they will never see combat again. He also thinks the kill ratio is anywhere from 5 to 1, or 8 to 1. Even if it's 5 to 1 the Ukrainians cannot hold on for much longer, it's just a mathematical impossibility. If he's correct Ukraine has only two more years maximum.

 

[Corvus Splendens]

>Gas-independent Moldova buys Russian gas again.
>Drone attack on Kalibr consignment in Crimea was successfully repelled with minimal effect.
>U.S. allocates new $350 million military aid package to Ukraine.
>AFU controls 40% of Bakhmut. Russian encirclement persists.
>Russia intends to return children who have been evacuated from the conflict zones in Ukraine when the conditions there are safe enough- Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN.
>Each batch of Wagner's "convict division" comprised of conscripted felons and criminals, regularly
suffers nearly 40-50% casualties.
>US to supply additional $400 million worth of Artillery shells from South Korea.
>In a war scenario with Russia, Britain's depleting ordnance stockpile would run out in 24 hours.
>US is ready to supply MIM-104 Patriot Surface-to-Air missile systems to Ukraine within a month. As the group of 65 AFU soldiers will soon complete their training on the systems at Fort Sill, Oklahoma.
>US is preparing to send over the first batch of M1A1 tanks.
>NATO-Ukraine Committee will convene at the ministerial level on April 4th despite Hungary vetoing it.
>Ukraine is firing 5000 Artillery shells every day. Far outstripping domestic production of 630 shells per week.
>NATO chief says Russia is looking to acquire heavy weapons from China.

 

[Ylside]

Wow even after all this time, you cannot apprehend Russia's basic goals? I see it. Russia is depopulating Ukraine of manpower and is setting up killing zones where the Ukrainians are stupid enough to go into and get killed without endangering Russian lives. With an army, you can have a country. Without an army, you got no country.

It is an old Mongol trick. Can't believe that you didn't pick up on that.

Yeah, we all see killing zones Russia set up around in Vuhledar, Mariinka or Avdiivka, where Russians have been throwing themselves against well-fortified Ukrainians for over the year

 

[Ylside]

I'm assuming you meant a 100k dead was the very highest estimate. Col. Macgregor thinks....

Macgregor is Putin's b**tch Moreover, he has been proven to be consistently wrong with like everything he claimed since the start of the war, trumpeting imminent Russian victory for the last year like every six weeks

Macgregor on 28.2.2022:

The battle in eastern Ukraine is "almost over" with Ukrainian troops there largely "surrounded and cut off," Macgregor said, adding that if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, "I suspect that the Russians will ultimately annihilate them."

Macgregor about Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive

Carlson’s top expert on the war, retired Colonel Douglas MacGregor, told viewers of the right-wing Fox News show that “this war may be over soon.:”

“Right now things are going very, very badly,” for Ukraine he said on Friday night’s show, calling them “desperate.” And Col MacGregor, a former adviser to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, even added that “They’re losing once again just south of Kharkiv.”

Tucker Carlson guest claims Ukraine near defeat – despite successes against Russia

Country’s armed forces have pushed Russian troops out of an area in the northeast of the country around Kharkiv

www.independent.co.uk

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Look certain observations:
1. EVEN assuming Ukraine lost 100k soldiers in a year, Ukraine can sustain this for 10 more years if they continue to get large lethal and non lethal aid from the west.

2. Russia's very lofty goals of Demilitarization, with a permanently neutral Ukraine, with NATO and NATO weapons out forever does not match Russian capabilities going by their performance in the past 6 months, given ever increasing lethal aid coming from NATO. Ukraine does not yet need to make these sacrifices and give up on its European dream (which most Ukranians still support ), as AFU has not yet faced a decisive defeat by Russia.

3. Ukraine will not be able to reconquer all the lost lands, but unless Russia has a never before seen huge force hidden, which it can unleash, it does not seem that Russia can decisively defeat the AFU. At the current pace, Russia might take 2 years to even conquer all of Donetsk... Yes, momentum can sometimes shift suddenly.But, without a northern vector from Kharkhiv, I don't see Sloviansk and Kramatorsk falling in 2023, even if Bakhmut falls..

1. Ukraine has lost more than 100K soldiers and they cannot sustain it, because they've lost most of their experienced soldiers. When you are losing more troops than the attacker, despite having defender's advantage, it means on the long term, the attacker is gonna win

2. This war won't go more than another 18 months max, Russia knows this. because in 18 months, next POTUS election season will be in full swing and there is a high probability that with inflation & impoverishment of the US lower classes, if the war is still ongoing, then its game over for the democrats. Russia knows this, which is why they are taking the slow meat-grinder approach

 

[kittoo420]

1. Ukraine has lost more than 100K soldiers and they cannot sustain it, because they've lost most of their experienced soldiers. When you are losing more troops than the attacker, despite having defender's advantage, it means on the long term, the attacker is gonna win

2. This war won't go more than another 18 months max, Russia knows this. because in 18 months, next POTUS election season will be in full swing and there is a high probability that with inflation & impoverishment of the US lower classes, if the war is still ongoing, then its game over for the democrats. Russia knows this, which is why they are taking the slow meat-grinder approach

On the second point- I don't know man. It was supposed to be a tsunami for Republicans in mid-terms as well, but it petered out completely. Whatever be the reason- demographic changes, idiocy of Republicans themselves, infighting, bad candidate selection, media management by democrats or whatever; the fact is that Republicans are never really able to convert supposed advantages to actual votes. And these were the mid-terms which usually go against even popular sitting presidents, let alone someone as unpopular as Biden.

And with Trump again rearing to run and tear apart other Republican candidates (with no hope of he himself winning the actual election), it doesn't look good for them. Ron DeSantis seems their best choice.

And Russia would be a fool to pin any hope on that. Same thing wad said about the mid-terms also. And even if Republicans win, it's not the policy differs a lot from Democrats on this matter anyway.

Russia should plan assuming full continuous support from west. As they say- 'hope for the best but prepare for the worst'

 

[GaudaNaresh]

On the second point- I don't know man. It was supposed to be a tsunami for Republicans in mid-terms as well, but it petered out completely. Whatever be the reason- demographic changes, idiocy of Republicans themselves, infighting, bad candidate selection, media management by democrats or whatever; the fact is that Republicans are never really able to convert supposed advantages to actual votes. And these were the mid-terms which usually go against even popular sitting presidents, let alone someone as unpopulated as Biden.

And with Trump again rearing to run and tear apart other Republican candidates (with no hope of he himself winning the actual election), it doesn't look good for them. Ron DeSantis seems their best choice.

And Russia would be a food to pin any hope on that. Same thing wad said about the mid-terms also. And even if Republicans win, it's not the policy differs a lot from Democrats on this matter anyway.

Russia should plan assuming full continuous support from west. As they say- 'hope for the best but prepare for the worst'

Well the Republicans DID make gains during the mid-terms. Just not as broadly as everyone expected, so i'd say that the republicans did satisfy the axiom of midterms going against the incumbent.
However, what the republicans can/cannot do, is irrelevant largely. What is relevant, is that an active war that is bleeding money from the US while its own citizens get poorer is a political risk that no incumbent US govt will be willing to take. The risk is simply too high that it will either lead to a lame duck President or a total re-entrenchment of the opposition by winning POTUS, Senate and HoR elections.

 

[kittoo420]

Well the Republicans DID make gains during the mid-terms. Just not as broadly as everyone expected, so i'd say that the republicans did satisfy the axiom of midterms going against the incumbent.
However, what the republicans can/cannot do, is irrelevant largely. What is relevant, is that an active war that is bleeding money from the US while its own citizens get poorer is a political risk that no incumbent US govt will be willing to take. The risk is simply too high that it will either lead to a lame duck President or a total re-entrenchment of the opposition by winning POTUS, Senate and HoR elections.

Slight disagreement with the situation (not the argument itself). The current state is that both parties, the general public and media etc., meaning everyone barring a few voices, is so enamored by Ukraine that logical arguments fly over their heads.
And I don't see US getting much poorer due to this in the short run. It's Europe which will get the beating first (and do you see them changing any course? No. Again because they are completely head over heels about Ukraine) and US may even gain at Europe's expense. Long term maybe US will get affected due to dollar dominance receding etc.

The brainwashing about Ukraine is such that normal arguments have been thrown out the window. It's a guarantee that soon west will supply planes to Ukraine and then trail balloons of even nukes will be floated. Something has to change radically for this to end quickly, something that will knock some sense in the west. Otherwise I don't see this ending soon and who will win or cave in first is a complete mystery. Ukraine and Europe are happily suicidal , US is maniacally licking its lips and Russian resolve is much harder than most. This is a terrifying cocktail.