Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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Akim

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lets hope for the hope and best available for all still standing on the ground.
There is a saying: На Бога надейся, но и сам не плошай (Trust in God, but do not make a mistake yourself).
I'm talking about perspective. I don't know the exact numbers, but it's a fact. Otherwise, why then dig trenches and set up checkpoints in the north of Crimea?
The frequency of mobilization waves decreases. In January-February there will be a new one. In just 4 months, Putler burned the first one. His professional army lasted 6 months. As a result, the Russian people get tired of dying for Khuilo and his clique. And then there will be the Kursk People's Republic.
 

Dark Sorrow

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Hold up, can you explain what the secondary sanctions will be?

Oil price cap is at $60 and market rate is nearby anyway.

If oil price falls, won't OPEC cut production?
Currently Russian energy or natural resources are not under any sanctions. This was mainly due to EU's reliance on Russian energy. The original plan was to allow this February 2023.
Now west has realized lot of other countries will continue to buy Russian energy or raw resources. World has made it clear that this or any future European war will not be a world war. Europe not equals to world.
Abrupt stoppage of Russian resources due to sanctions will cause energy price to jump sky high at the same time stopping Russian natural will cause damaging disruption to commercial and industrial sector and can cause recession.
To avoid this west has decided price cap to limit Russian profit at the same time avoid global supply chain disruption.
As for OPEC, they are being opportunistic. OPEC is trying to maximize their profit at other counties expense in this giant mess that Russians have created.

To those wondering what are secondary sanction.

What are Secondary Sanctions?

Outside of the United States, all economic sanctions imposed by a country are primary sanctions. In contrast, secondary sanctions impose penalties on persons and organizations not subject to the sanctioning country’s legal jurisdiction and are applied against entities engaged in the same dealings prohibited under primary sanctions.

For example, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, is subject to secondary sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a person who is not a “U.S. person” who deals in assets linked to the IRGC (e.g., donating to the IRGC’s charitable organization) may be penalized by OFAC. This is true even when there is nothing in the dealings that involve the U.S., such as the use of its currency or the export or import of its goods.

Penalties for violating a secondary sanction

A party violating the prohibitions or restrictions subject to secondary sanctions is the one subject to the regulatory consequences. However, the penalties are significantly more severe; generally, they consist of restrictions or prohibitions from accessing the imposing country’s financial system and/or the broader economy.

While there are a range of penalties that can be imposed under various U.S. sanctions regulations, the most severe is the loss of access to the financial system in the U.S. (and by U.S. financial institutions, located wherever).

This measure effectively bars the sanctioned party from doing business with customers and suppliers in the U.S., since it prevents access to the currency. It also makes being a significant force in international trade considerably more difficult, as the U.S. dollar is not only involved in over 60 percent of foreign exchange deals (which is how the buyer’s currency is used to purchase the goods and services in the seller’s currency), but is also the primary currency in which important commodities such as oil and precious metals are typically bought and sold.

 

Varzone

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Currently Russian energy or natural resources are not under any sanctions. This was mainly due to EU's reliance on Russian energy. The original plan was to allow this February 2023.
Now west has realized lot of other countries will continue to buy Russian energy or raw resources. World has made it clear that this or any future European war will not be a world war. Europe not equals to world.
Abrupt stoppage of Russian resources due to sanctions will cause energy price to jump sky high at the same time stopping Russian natural will cause damaging disruption to commercial and industrial sector and can cause recession.
To avoid this west has decided price cap to limit Russian profit at the same time avoid global supply chain disruption.
As for OPEC, they are being opportunistic. OPEC is trying to maximize their profit at other counties expense in this giant mess that Russians have created.

To those wondering what are secondary sanction.

What are Secondary Sanctions?

Outside of the United States, all economic sanctions imposed by a country are primary sanctions. In contrast, secondary sanctions impose penalties on persons and organizations not subject to the sanctioning country’s legal jurisdiction and are applied against entities engaged in the same dealings prohibited under primary sanctions.

For example, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, is subject to secondary sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a person who is not a “U.S. person” who deals in assets linked to the IRGC (e.g., donating to the IRGC’s charitable organization) may be penalized by OFAC. This is true even when there is nothing in the dealings that involve the U.S., such as the use of its currency or the export or import of its goods.

Penalties for violating a secondary sanction

A party violating the prohibitions or restrictions subject to secondary sanctions is the one subject to the regulatory consequences. However, the penalties are significantly more severe; generally, they consist of restrictions or prohibitions from accessing the imposing country’s financial system and/or the broader economy.

While there are a range of penalties that can be imposed under various U.S. sanctions regulations, the most severe is the loss of access to the financial system in the U.S. (and by U.S. financial institutions, located wherever).

This measure effectively bars the sanctioned party from doing business with customers and suppliers in the U.S., since it prevents access to the currency. It also makes being a significant force in international trade considerably more difficult, as the U.S. dollar is not only involved in over 60 percent of foreign exchange deals (which is how the buyer’s currency is used to purchase the goods and services in the seller’s currency), but is also the primary currency in which important commodities such as oil and precious metals are typically bought and sold.

Arey yeh toh mereko pta hai lekin what extra sanctions can be imposed which haven't already?

And what's the use of $60 price cap?
 

Dark Sorrow

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Arey yeh toh mereko pta hai lekin what extra sanctions can be imposed which haven't already?
The following measure were planned
  1. Blanket Blacklist any banks or financial institute dealing with Russian be it in USD, Euro or local currency
  2. Deny technology assistance to refinery processing Russian oil
  3. Deny technology assistance to logistic providers (be it shipping or pipelines or storage) of Russian oil
  4. Impose primary sanctions on this repeat offenders (situation dependent) in order to make their banks, partners and clients venerable to secondary sanctions
  5. Deny insurance
And what's the use of $60 price cap?
It takes around $40 for Russians to extract 1 barrel of oil.
The price is set to $60 to limit the profit that the sale of oil will generate, which will in turn limit the amount of money that Russians can pour in this war.
At the same time with $60 Russians oil companies will have incentive to not stop or significantly reduce the production which will in-turn limit the price rise of oil and keep ME OPEC countries in check.
 

Blademaster

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Currently Russian energy or natural resources are not under any sanctions. This was mainly due to EU's reliance on Russian energy. The original plan was to allow this February 2023.
Now west has realized lot of other countries will continue to buy Russian energy or raw resources. World has made it clear that this or any future European war will not be a world war. Europe not equals to world.
Abrupt stoppage of Russian resources due to sanctions will cause energy price to jump sky high at the same time stopping Russian natural will cause damaging disruption to commercial and industrial sector and can cause recession.
To avoid this west has decided price cap to limit Russian profit at the same time avoid global supply chain disruption.
As for OPEC, they are being opportunistic. OPEC is trying to maximize their profit at other counties expense in this giant mess that Russians have created.

To those wondering what are secondary sanction.

What are Secondary Sanctions?

Outside of the United States, all economic sanctions imposed by a country are primary sanctions. In contrast, secondary sanctions impose penalties on persons and organizations not subject to the sanctioning country’s legal jurisdiction and are applied against entities engaged in the same dealings prohibited under primary sanctions.

For example, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, is subject to secondary sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a person who is not a “U.S. person” who deals in assets linked to the IRGC (e.g., donating to the IRGC’s charitable organization) may be penalized by OFAC. This is true even when there is nothing in the dealings that involve the U.S., such as the use of its currency or the export or import of its goods.

Penalties for violating a secondary sanction

A party violating the prohibitions or restrictions subject to secondary sanctions is the one subject to the regulatory consequences. However, the penalties are significantly more severe; generally, they consist of restrictions or prohibitions from accessing the imposing country’s financial system and/or the broader economy.

While there are a range of penalties that can be imposed under various U.S. sanctions regulations, the most severe is the loss of access to the financial system in the U.S. (and by U.S. financial institutions, located wherever).

This measure effectively bars the sanctioned party from doing business with customers and suppliers in the U.S., since it prevents access to the currency. It also makes being a significant force in international trade considerably more difficult, as the U.S. dollar is not only involved in over 60 percent of foreign exchange deals (which is how the buyer’s currency is used to purchase the goods and services in the seller’s currency), but is also the primary currency in which important commodities such as oil and precious metals are typically bought and sold.

So you want to give in and become a whore for the US? Have some pride and thumb your nose to the US. Show the US you are no pushover.
 

Anirbann Datta

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The following measure were planned
  1. Blanket Blacklist any banks or financial institute dealing with Russian be it in USD, Euro or local currency
  2. Deny technology assistance to refinery processing Russian oil
  3. Deny technology assistance to logistic providers (be it shipping or pipelines or storage) of Russian oil
  4. Impose primary sanctions on this repeat offenders (situation dependent) in order to make their banks, partners and clients venerable to secondary sanctions
  5. Deny insurance

It takes around $40 for Russians to extract 1 barrel of oil.
The price is set to $60 to limit the profit that the sale of oil will generate, which will in turn limit the amount of money that Russians can pour in this war.
At the same time with $60 Russians oil companies will have incentive to not stop or significantly reduce the production which will in-turn limit the price rise of oil and keep ME OPEC countries in check.
I was reading some where , russia is planning and almost got opec /+ in its side with price flooring...
If that happens, EU countries will have to rather pay more than even current 79.
We have a phrase in bengali---' nijer naak kete porer jatra-vongo' meas- don't go trying ruining other party while self being unwanted third party there'
In trying russia to cave, i fear EU will rather find itself in dark cave!!! where they could simple stay away melding own business, they rather did choose the hard way.
 

Varzone

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The following measure were planned
  1. Blanket Blacklist any banks or financial institute dealing with Russian be it in USD, Euro or local currency
  2. Deny technology assistance to refinery processing Russian oil
  3. Deny technology assistance to logistic providers (be it shipping or pipelines or storage) of Russian oil
  4. Impose primary sanctions on this repeat offenders (situation dependent) in order to make their banks, partners and clients venerable to secondary sanctions
  5. Deny insurance

It takes around $40 for Russians to extract 1 barrel of oil.
The price is set to $60 to limit the profit that the sale of oil will generate, which will in turn limit the amount of money that Russians can pour in this war.
At the same time with $60 Russians oil companies will have incentive to not stop or significantly reduce the production which will in-turn limit the price rise of oil and keep ME OPEC countries in check.
IMO there are less and less companies from western sphere and sensitive to sanctions like Chinese that could support russian imports anyway.

Also Russian crude is already selling at discount at $60 with or without price cap. They should keep the price cap at $40 if they really want to do something to curb Russia's revenue.

Russia won't stop production of oil due to price cap, they'll sell in black market as much as possible since they already reduced production in southern regions. If they reduce production from Siberia for Urals then it'll come with its own host of problems with the facilities.
 

another_armchair

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IMO there are less and less companies from western sphere and sensitive to sanctions like Chinese that could support russian imports anyway.

Also Russian crude is already selling at discount at $60 with or without price cap. They should keep the price cap at $40 if they really want to do something to curb Russia's revenue.

Russia won't stop production of oil due to price cap, they'll sell in black market as much as possible since they already reduced production in southern regions. If they reduce production from Siberia for Urals then it'll come with its own host of problems with the facilities.
One can hold a truck load of Russian crude futures contracts priced at $40 or lower but which company in Russia will honor them & deliver crude when those contracts are due for settlement?
 

Varzone

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One can hold a truck load of Russian crude futures contracts priced at $40 or lower but which company in Russia will honor them & deliver crude when those contracts are due for settlement?
They are not tradeable in open market my dear.
I checked in my Bloomberg terminal.

Otherwise, just to add.
FURAM1 INDEX is at $55. (BBG COMMODITY FAIR VALUE MED URALS CRUDE OIL PRICE MONTH 1)
 

another_armchair

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They are not tradeable in open market my dear.
I checked in my Bloomberg terminal.

Otherwise, just to add.
FURAM1 INDEX is at $55. (BBG COMMODITY FAIR VALUE MED URALS CRUDE OIL PRICE MONTH 1)
I know.. that's why NAFO trying to set a price(cap) on Urals crude is laughable unless one is dealing directly with the Russians and its the oil oligarchs & Kremlin who decide whither Urals crude goes and at what price.
 

Dark Sorrow

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everyone aside from the US, and maybe China is a whore to the US lol. fact of life currently
Even PRC doesn't dare to cross US. They will covertly work against US when it is in their (PRC's) interest but will toe in US's line.
 

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