Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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RocketMan

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And its not Kremlins propaganda
Sooner or later people in the West are gonna rise up against these Globalist scum . It'll a French revolution redux & result will be a permanent weakening of Americunts stranglehold over Europe.
 

Master Chief

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heh, quite an interesting statement, does Nazi Germany still exist and Nazi again or was there behavior changed?
Well.. If you manage to achieve complete victory over Ukraine.. then, it's certainly a great win.. And Russia might be able to mould the new generation of ukrainians. But, considering the huge backing from the west, complete victory like the one over Nazi Germany looks unlikely at the moment..
 

Master Chief

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Another Russian Ka-52 Alligator demilitarized in the East. Certainly one of the flashier shotdown, something much heavier than usual Manpad must have been used for this one.

Yes.. The Warhead seems bigger..
 

Varzone

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A slow moving non stealth drone.. just travels close to 1000 km in Russian/Russian held territory .. Hmm.. If it's a Ukranian drone, then, lots of questions about suppossedly air tight Russian air defenses in depth areas..
NATO is giving intelligence on the gaps in air defence, down time, scan speed, rotation and direction.
Real time information is worth its weight in gold.
 

ww2historian

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The bill for the aid for Ukraine will be passed. The Republicans are milking it to score local brownie points. It's just sausage making at this point. I wouldn't read too much into it. The traditional Republicans hate the Russians as much as the leftists do. It is really one of the fewest points that both parties can agree on: hating the Russians and doing anything to hurt the Russians.
You are probably correct because it is a lame duck session, and the dems are still holding the majority in congress. However it only has to be i"delayed" and stalled and that would be very bad for Ukraine. Opposing parties love to jump ship, and blame the other side for everything. I think the issue of Ukraine will be one of these. Yes the republican's are warmongers, but when things go really bad in Ukraine (and the will) they can blame the Biden administration for everything. Remember John Kerry voted for the war in Iraq, and then blamed it all on Bush. Obama also won the presidency because he was against the war, but then chose the warmonging Biden as his running mate. Both party are snakes in the end. https://theintercept.com/2020/01/07/joe-biden-iraq-war-history/ https://www.factcheck.org/2019/09/bidens-record-on-iraq-war/
 

Blademaster

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You are probably correct because it is a lame duck session, and the dems are still holding the majority in congress. However if it's just "delayed" and stalled it very bad for Ukraine. Opposing parties love to jump ship, and blame the other side for everything. I think the issue of Ukraine will be one of these. Yes the republican's are warmongers, but when things go really bad in Ukraine (and the will) they can blame the Biden administration for everything. Remember John Kerry voted for the war in Iraq, and then blamed it all on Bush. Obama also won the presidency because he was against the war, but then chose the warmonging Biden as his running mate. Both party are snakes in the end. https://theintercept.com/2020/01/07/joe-biden-iraq-war-history/ https://www.factcheck.org/2019/09/bidens-record-on-iraq-war/
Still that didn't prevent the Congress from passing bills authorizing massive amounts of money to the respective weapons programs needed to continue the conflict. Again, sausage making process at this point.
 

ww2historian

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When I read the following Ukrainian propaganda I kept in mind that fact that the west has sent so many weapons to Ukraine that they've exhausted there supplies. Ukraine seems to think the west has an endless supply of weapons, and if they only sent what they needed, this thing would be over by now.

According to Oleg Zhdanov, Ukraine’s victory maybe next spring, but subject to the supply of large volumes of weapons by the West.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine could drive the Russian occupiers out of Ukraine before the end of the year, but due to the lack of a large number of weapons, the victory is postponed until next year.

“The attacks of the Iranian Shahed 136 drones on Ukraine have stopped because their supply has been exhausted. But if it is possible to establish their production in Russia, the new batch will be ready in January or February. In the same period, the second wave of mobilization is expected in the Russian Federation, but instead of profit, it may completely “bury” the equipment system of the occupier’s army.”

This opinion was voiced by military expert Oleg Zhdanov in an interview with OBOZREVATEL. He stressed that the Ukrainian army lacks long-range missiles.

“We knocked out the entire officer corps of the Russian armed forces. Who will conduct classes with them, and who will teach them? The cadets whom they send to officers with accelerated graduations and throw them to the front? This is delusional. And if now the Military Commissariat and the Russian Guard continue to capture conscripts and stuff them into the same tents at the training grounds, the winter turned out to be not quite warm. Cold and hungry riots will begin there.

The fact is that the Russian mobilization system is capable of issuing a draft of 120,000 twice a year. They capture conscripts within a month or two; another month is spent on assembly and distribution to units. And that is all the system is capable of. Now they have scored 240 thousand instead of 300 thousand. 120 of them are still sitting in tents at landfills and are constantly rioting about the fact that they have poor supplies, no one conducts classes, etc.”
“The only thing that can reach deep into Russia is missile weapons. But so far they don’t even want to give us operational-tactical missiles for 300 kilometers. even if we receive support in words, we will not be able to strike physically due to the lack of such weapons,”
the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.

According to Zhdanov, the victory of Ukraine maybe next spring, but subject to the supply of large volumes of weapons by the West. Realities will depend on the military support of Ukraine by partners.


“We had a chance to end the hot phase of the war before the end of this year, but we were not provided with weapons. And now we are postponing this chance for another six months, to the summer of 2023. If they give us weapons, everything will be in order. If they don’t, there will be a positional war again to exhaustion, and on both sides,” the expert added.
 

ww2historian

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I've heard a few stories about Biden hinting/pressuring to Zelensky to negotiate, but insane articles like this tells me that that Biden is completely out of touch with reality. I've concluded that the people saying the west is pressuring Zelensky is compete bullshit.

"Putin Must Not Win, But Zelensky Must Not Win Too Much
BY JOSEF JOFFE

DECEMBER 1, 2022 5:00 AM EST
Joffe teaches international politics and security at the Johns Hopkins School of International Studies. He is also a Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution.
In the first phase of the War, the Russians made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, and Ukraine looked a goner. In phase two just four weeks later, the victim was on a roll, regaining some thousand settlements while decimating an outclassed foe slugging it out far from home. Now act three, which opened with a miraculous Ukrainian victory that drove the Russians from Kherson, a first-rate strategic prize in the south. But the stage may soon darken.
Sure, the Ukrainians continue to dominate the battlefield thanks to superior motivation and massive injections of Western cash and arms. They are fighting for survival whereas Russians are bolting by the hundred-thousands to escape
Ukraine’s jubilant President Volodymyr Zelensky now faces a threat that was always lurking in the background. It comes from his big-hearted friends in the West. In November, Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with his Russian counterpart for a “confidential conversation,” which the administration promptly leaked as a message to Kyiv.

They probably discussed the “compromise” Joe Biden would broach after the fall of Kherson. Of course, the President was “not going to tell [the Ukrainians] what they have to do.” But the hint is hard to miss. Reining in a client is what great powers do to avoid entrapment in a deadly conflict, in this case with a wild-eyed Russian adversary backed by an overkill arsenal.
That Vladimir Putin would unleash nuclear weapons was never credible. Start with a single tactical weapon, and you end up with a catastrophic strategic duel. Even in a pre-nuclear age, fabled Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz warned against taking the “first step without considering what may be the last.” During the Cuban Missile Crisis, John F. Kennedy cribbed from Clausewitz: “It isn’t the first step that concerns me, but both sides escalating to the fourth and fifth, and we don’t go to the sixth because there is no one around to do so.”

If Putin were serious, U.S. intelligence would know. It would see tactical warheads being hauled out of their tightly guarded bunkers to marry them to delivery vehicles like missiles and planes. These systems would disperse. Coded communications would rise above normal. But it does not end here. Putin would have to take out strategic insurance and place his intercontinental weapons on a war footing. His risk soars because the U.S. would go to DEFCON 2: ICBMS and ballistic submarines ready to go in six hours. At this stage, misperception and miscalculation could trigger strategic war.

Putin has carefully avoided these steps. NATO has warned him, and so have even his so-so allies, the Chinese: “Nuclear wars must not be fought.”


Still, Putin’s threats did rattle the West. Who would want to die for Kyiv? Or freeze while Russia is cutting gas to Europe to a trickle? Paris and Berlin have tried to mediate from day one. Western leaders may be tiring of the war after nine months. In the U.S., Republican opposition to America’s entanglement is rising.

Paradoxically, the angst reflects too much of a good thing. Ukraine’s victories might trigger unbounded Russian revenge, whatever the cost. But the strategic realities may be tilting against Kyiv. In this third act, those brave Ukrainians may not easily duplicate their amazing advances during the second.

Why not? As the Russians pull back into fortified positions, they profit from their short “interior lines,” as Clausewitz had it. To dislodge dug-in troops is harder than to outwit an invader out in the open. As rule of thumb, it takes a 3-to-1 manpower advantage to overcome tank traps, bunkers, and sheltered artillery farther back. President Biden has subtly put his Kyiv counterpart on notice: Time to start talking to Putin. About what—a cease-fire? About accepting Russia’s landgrab in the Southeast prior to its full-scale invasion on 24 February?

The strategy is opportunistic—push your pawns forward where the risks are calculable, as they were in Georgia, Crimea and in the Donbas. Who will be next if Western resolve falters? Assume, the U.S. and its allies leash Zelensky by tightening the flow of arms. The Kremlin would conclude that it is safe to crush Ukraine with high-flying jets, missiles, and long-range artillery. The prize would be gain without pain.

This is the deadly dilemma for the West. Putin must not win, but Zelensky must not win too much. Right now, while Ukraine is advancing and Russia is flailing, negotiations will not soon bring about a lasting settlement. So how to crack the dilemma?

Only the principle is easy to lay out
. The West is not doing the Ukrainians a one-sided favor by helping them to drive back Putin. The beleaguered nation also happens to fight for a precious European system unhinged by Russian expansionism. So, Ukraine is returning the favor big-time by defying him. It is also defending the rest of the West.

The point is not to dethrone Putin, which only his own people can do. It is to sober him up and to deter adventurism over the long haul. Crimea is presumably lost. But conceding his other conquests in this third act, would embolden him. On the global level, other ambitious revisionists like China and Iran are watching.
 

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