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I have been watching some telegram videos of Ukrainians begging for help in Donbass.Russians have a good chance of winning in Donbass. The significant population is sympathetic towards them, Russians have local militia support, Donbass is separated from rest of Ukraine by rivers and most important Donbass was never in Ukrainian total control post 2014.
South is where things will be unpredictable. As of now it seems that Russian have lost steam in south and have changed strategy of holding the captured territory. They seem to have given up on Odessa.
Russians never cared about looses, Putin never has to face criticism or pressure from huge loss of life.
They look to be legit but there is no way to be sure. Doesn't bode well for Ukraine if frontlines are not supplied with what they need.
They have taken heavy casualties in eastern sector and not so much on Russian side apart from some river crossings where they got blown to pieces. Russia will sacrifice kharkhiv region and push till they have Donbass. It's a long way to go still so anything can change but momentum is with Russia.