Russia Ukraine War 2022

[GaudaNaresh]

Slight disagreement with the situation (not the argument itself). The current state is that both parties, the general public and media etc., meaning everyone barring a few voices, is so enamored by Ukraine that logical arguments fly over their heads.
And I don't see US getting much poorer due to this in the short run. It's Europe which will get the beating first (and do you see them changing any course? No. Again because they are completely head over heels about Ukraine) and US may even gain at Europe's expense. Long term maybe US will get affected due to dollar dominance receding etc.

The brainwashing about Ukraine is such that normal arguments have been thrown out the window. It's a guarantee that soon west will supply planes to Ukraine and then trail balloons of even nukes will be floated. Something has to change radically for this to end quickly, something that will knock some sense in the west. Otherwise I don't see this ending soon and who will win or cave in first is a complete mystery. Ukraine and Europe are happily suicidal , US is maniacally licking its lips and Russian resolve is much harder than most. This is a terrifying cocktail.

The sentiment that i am seeing take hold in the US - and i know a lot of americans- is why is the govt spending billions on ukraine when we are crushed by high inflation rates and record low job creation rates. THAT is the argument that will only magnify over time.

And american public in general have low tolerance of war weariness. Already we can see articles in the mainstream about 'is this war worth it'. This will only magnify as time goes on, especially around election time, when it is in the interest of the opposition to maginify such voices. Especially since it seems Ukraine has no hope of ever pushing Russia out of its occupied territories, effectively turning this into a slow grinding WW1 type war.

This is what i think politically, is a risk that no incumbent american govt is willing to take.


Personally, i dont want this war to end. This war won't go nuclear, regarldess of the sabre rattling, because ukraine is simply not worth it. Forget ukraine,a US-China war over Taiwan wont get nuclear, as US will never ever use the nuclear option to defend anyone but its own skin.

So, from my POV, a WW1 like grinding war is the best case scenario for global south, for it effectively re-creates the fallout of WW1 :weakening of western powers. People often overlook the fatal hit colonialism took during WW1 ( WW2 killed the dying body of colonialism but WW1 put it in terminal decline) due to the manpower loss of millions of able-bodied european males, to keep the economy and war machine intact to rule over rest of the world.
This war is the economic version of that, as west bleeds money, dollar dominance is uprooted at an accelerated rate, etc.
If this war goes on to 2030, you can bet your bottom dollar that the trillions added to the western debt burden, along with the implied cost of higher energy costs & supporting millions of Ukrainian refugees and loss of ground for the dollar, will be another fatal hit at neo-colonialism.

Russia will be a million or two men poorer in demographics, perhaps turning them irreversibly into demographic decline, but maybe not, as post war baby-boom is a phenomena that Russia can bank on to kick-start its demographic decline.

 

[kittoo420]

The sentiment that i am seeing take hold in the US - and i know a lot of americans- is why is the govt spending billions on ukraine when we are crushed by high inflation rates and record low job creation rates. THAT is the argument that will only magnify over time.

And american public in general have low tolerance of war weariness. Already we can see articles in the mainstream about 'is this war worth it'. This will only magnify as time goes on, especially around election time, when it is in the interest of the opposition to maginify such voices. Especially since it seems Ukraine has no hope of ever pushing Russia out of its occupied territories, effectively turning this into a slow grinding WW1 type war.

This is what i think politically, is a risk that no incumbent american govt is willing to take.


Personally, i dont want this war to end. This war won't go nuclear, regarldess of the sabre rattling, because ukraine is simply not worth it. Forget ukraine,a US-China war over Taiwan wont get nuclear, as US will never ever use the nuclear option to defend anyone but its own skin.

So, from my POV, a WW1 like grinding war is the best case scenario for global south, for it effectively re-creates the fallout of WW1 :weakening of western powers. People often overlook the fatal hit colonialism took during WW1 ( WW2 killed the dying body of colonialism but WW1 put it in terminal decline) due to the manpower loss of millions of able-bodied european males, to keep the economy and war machine intact to rule over rest of the world.
This war is the economic version of that, as west bleeds money, dollar dominance is uprooted at an accelerated rate, etc.
If this war goes on to 2030, you can bet your bottom dollar that the trillions added to the western debt burden, along with the implied cost of higher energy costs & supporting millions of Ukrainian refugees and loss of ground for the dollar, will be another fatal hit at neo-colonialism.

Russia will be a million or two men poorer in demographics, perhaps turning them irreversibly into demographic decline, but maybe not, as post war baby-boom is a phenomena that Russia can bank on to kick-start its demographic decline.

Interesting. I don't have much disagreement on the long term view that you posted. I completely agree that this west has been terribly short-sighted and has shot itself in the foot in the long run- risking economical dominance.

US public does have low tolerance for war, but mainly when bodybags are coming home. Do they have the same low tolerance when the impact is only economic (and pro-Ukraine propaganda is everywhere)? I am not so sure. I guess we will see in a couple or years.

 

[Blademaster]

On the second point- I don't know man. It was supposed to be a tsunami for Republicans in mid-terms as well, but it petered out completely. Whatever be the reason- demographic changes, idiocy of Republicans themselves, infighting, bad candidate selection, media management by democrats or whatever; the fact is that Republicans are never really able to convert supposed advantages to actual votes. And these were the mid-terms which usually go against even popular sitting presidents, let alone someone as unpopular as Biden.

And with Trump again rearing to run and tear apart other Republican candidates (with no hope of he himself winning the actual election), it doesn't look good for them. Ron DeSantis seems their best choice.

And Russia would be a fool to pin any hope on that. Same thing wad said about the mid-terms also. And even if Republicans win, it's not the policy differs a lot from Democrats on this matter anyway.

Russia should plan assuming full continuous support from west. As they say- 'hope for the best but prepare for the worst'

Doesn't matter. The US economy is gonna tank in the next 18 months or so. The bank failures are canaries singing in a coal mine. Once that happens, the US public is in no mood to fund another Ukraine counteroffensive/offensive. They will drop Ukraine like a hot potato and tell Joe Biden if he wins the next term or the next US president to concentrate on US and its economy. No more freebies for Ukraine. France and Germany are not doing well. They are running out of fiscal maneuvering room and the Czech Republic just fired a shot across Zelensky and his ukrops' bow.

 

[Blademaster]

Yeah, we all see killing zones Russia set up around in Vuhledar, Mariinka or Avdiivka, where Russians have been throwing themselves against well-fortified Ukrainians for over the year

Hey Sherlock Holmes, check the kill ratio. Hint: It is largely in Russia's favor despite being outnumbered. Keep sucking on that copium & hopium pipe.

 

[Master Chief]

1. Ukraine has lost more than 100K soldiers and they cannot sustain it, because they've lost most of their experienced soldiers. When you are losing more troops than the attacker, despite having defender's advantage, it means on the long term, the attacker is gonna win

2. This war won't go more than another 18 months max, Russia knows this. because in 18 months, next POTUS election season will be in full swing and there is a high probability that with inflation & impoverishment of the US lower classes, if the war is still ongoing, then its game over for the democrats. Russia knows this, which is why they are taking the slow meat-grinder approach

US is not spilling any blood in the war. And is a major economic beneficiary of the war, as it exports record amounts of LNG to Europe, and some energy intensive European industries shift to US. Europe is the big economic loser here..
The banking crisis is unrelated to the Ukraine war, but the banking crisis will mean end of Quantitative tightening (QT) and a forever high inflation impacting the lower classes. Also, the crisis in American regional banks which do bulk of the commercial and residential lending,might deal a severe blow to the US economy. This might play to Russia's advantage in the long term, by reducing support to Ukraine war.
But, current state of the battle field, and the continuous qualitative upgrade in western military support to Ukraine, followed by ever closer Ukranian integration with NATO logistics, tells me that the Russian dream of a finlandized land locked Ukraine is dead. What might be born after this conflict might be a new Ukraine ( with truncated territory), which retains Odessa, and becomes a NATO member. Something like a US treaty ally South Korea after the Korean War.. And of course, Russia will keep parts of Eastern Ukraine..

 

[Master Chief]

I'm assuming you meant a 100k dead was the very highest estimate. Col. Macgregor thinks it's closer to 250 kia, and another 3 to 4 hundred thousand wounded to a degree they will never see combat again. He also thinks the kill ratio is anywhere from 5 to 1, or 8 to 1. Even if it's 5 to 1 the Ukrainians cannot hold on for much longer, it's just a mathematical impossibility. If he's correct Ukraine has only two more years maximum.

Col. MACGREGOR isn't in charge of Ukranian morgue.. So, his estimates seem just like the Ukranian version of Russian casualties..

 

[DumbPilot]

I'm assuming you meant a 100k dead was the very highest estimate. Col. Macgregor thinks it's closer to 250 kia, and another 3 to 4 hundred thousand wounded to a degree they will never see combat again. He also thinks the kill ratio is anywhere from 5 to 1, or 8 to 1. Even if it's 5 to 1 the Ukrainians cannot hold on for much longer, it's just a mathematical impossibility. If he's correct Ukraine has only two more years maximum.

1 Russian to 5 Ukrainians means that a force of 300k Russians would have dismantled the Ukrainian army of a million strong.

Interesting, haven't seen this happening though. Could it be that the casualty ratios are completely bullshit? 1 to 1 sounds a LOT more logical on an average throughout the country - simple because of this attrition warfare we're currently seeing

 

[Akim]

Lav VI donated by Canada

It doesn't seem like it. However, it doesn't matter.

Then why tonnes of videos floating in which conscript recruiters are handing over paper to unwilling people and even dragging them on the ground , out of their home.

Why YOU ARE NOT AT THE WARFRONT instead of that unwilling guy being dragged.

Are you worried about the fate of these people or nostalgia for the colonial past?
Who told you that I don't have an AK?

 

[Corvus Splendens]

It doesn't seem like it. However, it doesn't matter.

The headlights are a dead giveaway. It's a Lav 6.

 

[NutCracker]

It doesn't seem like it. However, it doesn't matter.
View attachment 197513

Are you worried about the fate of these people or nostalgia for the colonial past?
Who told you that I don't have an AK?

Having an AK doesn't mean shit.
You are not at the warfront that's why you have been able to post so much hollow rambling.

You still didn't answer why UA recruiters have to drag conscripts out of home if people are "ready to die for the country🫡"

Have they already receuited all those who were willfully wanted to join war ? And now they are running out of people.

 

[Akim]

Having an AK doesn't mean shit.
You are not at the warfront that's why you have been able to post so much hollow rambling.

You still didn't answer why UA recruiters have to drag conscripts out of home if people are "ready to die for the country🫡"

Have they already receuited all those who were willfully wanted to join war ? And now they are running out of people.

APU is now 750 thousand. Have they all been dragged? Don't talk shit.

 

[NutCracker]

APU is now 750 thousand. Have they all been dragged? Don't talk shit.

If there is no shortage of those who are willfully joining then why recruiters have to drag those familymen who are not willing to, infront of their kids ??

 

[Akim]

If there is no shortage of those who are willfully joining then why recruiters have to drag those familymen who are not willing to, infront of their kids ??

Everyone has children. Even to that woman in the photo, but some are conscious, and some are not
You only see the outside.. Maybe it's the dodger and ignored several summons to the military office.
Pro-Russian whores do not understand this.

 

[NutCracker]

Everyone has children. Even to that woman in the photo, but some are conscious, and some are not
You only see the outside.. Maybe it's the dodger and ignored several summons to the military office.
Pro-Russian whores do not understand this.

Well .
Ukronazi whores are pushing, dragging unwilling people into war, it indeed reminds us of colonial era when Britshits dragged us in WW1 and 2 across African and East asian front.

 

[Blademaster]

US is not spilling any blood in the war. And is a major economic beneficiary of the war, as it exports record amounts of LNG to Europe, and some energy intensive European industries shift to US. Europe is the big economic loser here..
The banking crisis is unrelated to the Ukraine war, but the banking crisis will mean end of Quantitative tightening (QT) and a forever high inflation impacting the lower classes. Also, the crisis in American regional banks which do bulk of the commercial and residential lending,might deal a severe blow to the US economy. This might play to Russia's advantage in the long term, by reducing support to Ukraine war.
But, current state of the battle field, and the continuous qualitative upgrade in western military support to Ukraine, followed by ever closer Ukranian integration with NATO logistics, tells me that the Russian dream of a finlandized land locked Ukraine is dead. What might be born after this conflict might be a new Ukraine ( with truncated territory), which retains Odessa, and becomes a NATO member. Something like a US treaty ally South Korea after the Korean War.. And of course, Russia will keep parts of Eastern Ukraine..

Nope it is related to the Ukrainian conflict because when the conflict started it sharply spiked the inflation which led the Feds to drastically increase the interest rates and didn't lower it down which led to the banking crisis.

 

[Blademaster]

Col. MACGREGOR isn't in charge of Ukranian morgue.. So, his estimates seem just like the Ukranian version of Russian casualties..

He has access to classified info.

 

[Blademaster]

1 Russian to 5 Ukrainians means that a force of 300k Russians would have dismantled the Ukrainian army of a million strong.

Interesting, haven't seen this happening though. Could it be that the casualty ratios are completely bullshit? 1 to 1 sounds a LOT more logical on an average throughout the country - simple because of this attrition warfare we're currently seeing

You keep forgetting that Russia destroyed the UA nearly twice. Ukraine rebuilt its armies three times with the help of NATO/US. Look to North Vietnam as an example. NVA lost its armies 3 times and rebuiilt each time.

 

[Master Chief]

Well .
Ukronazi whores are pushing dragging unwilling people into war indeed reminds us of colonial era when Britshits dragged us in WW1 and 2 across African and East asian front.

Instances of some ukranians being dragged, does not mean that's the norm.. I have seen videos of Ukranians being forcibly drafted for almost a year now.. But, if Ukraine was forced to drag everyone/most to war forcibly, the war could not have been sustained for a year..There will always be unwilling draftees like US draft dodgers in WW2 or Vietnam war..

 

[Master Chief]

He has access to classified info.

Your sceptism is rather one way..

 

[Blademaster]

Your sceptism is rather one way..

Say whatever you want. He is a former Pentagon advisor to the Jpint Chief of Staff. His opinion cannot be largely ignored as long as he has access to latest Pentagon intelligence reports. That's a fact.