Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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Blademaster

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From Rybar.. Interesting insight in this thread. This grinding approach, unless followed by deep breakthrough gives time for Ukraine to build up reserves.. And Ukraine still has the majority of 3 million men of fighting age available to be drafted.. Like we saw in summer 2022, the slow progress of Russia was justified by saying the grind was a deliberate strategy to finish the AFU.. But, then suddenly Ukraine had built up reserves and they launched a counter offensive that recaptured significant parts of Kharkhov and Kherson oblasts..

If RuAF start bringing out its SEAD and carpet bombing out in force, then the 3 million men will be cannon fodder as well. Russia still has the edge in artillery. If Ukraine mass those men, they will be locked into place by Russian forces and bombed into smithereens by Russian artillery. Russia is content to trade some territory away if it means killing the men because then Ukrainian society would be fucked as a whole for several generations and be in no position to resist. Ukraine will not be made whole for at least 50-75 years.
 

blackjack

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Ukraine still has the majority of 3 million men of fighting age available to be drafted..
are they referencing men outside of their country? its not like we had AFU fighting with civilians to get drafted this past month that they are even sending mobilization letters to Ukrainians that have taken refuge outside the country. Ukraine is going to have some willing fighters in this war. I dont know if I should feel sad for you for bringing up very old information again about kherson and kharkiv which might later be contested again.
 

jackprince

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From Rybar.. Interesting insight in this thread. This grinding approach, unless followed by deep breakthrough gives time for Ukraine to build up reserves.. And Ukraine still has the majority of 3 million men of fighting age available to be drafted.. Like we saw in summer 2022, the slow progress of Russia was justified by saying the grind was a deliberate strategy to finish the AFU.. But, then suddenly Ukraine had built up reserves and they launched a counter offensive that recaptured significant parts of Kharkhov and Kherson oblasts..

Has this Ryber ever learnt the meaning of the word - 'morale'?

More kingdom fell because men were forced into battles as cannon fodders by people sitting in high towers. Perhaps he needs to visit the history book and read about fall of Tsar and rise of the global menace communism.

It takes a special mindset and will power to fight at the front. Those who were able and willing and most fortitude, had already joined armed forces and are either at the front now or has become a number. The so called military age men left to be called up will be unwilling conscripts with low morale and even less ability to fight. Hard time does transform some people into their harder self, but most crumple under stress. Now, you take a random dude, put him in a uniform, show him the right end of the rifle and expect him to fight against the massive brutal assault by a superior force where he knows his chance of survival is lesser than him getting to become a millionaire, how do you think he will fare?

What you people fail to see is that the whole process of grind has beenmuch more beneficial to Russia. Once Russia decided not to push in Kiev - a very wise decision in the hindsight - the option left to Russia is to destroy Ukraine's military capabilities forever. The idiot Zelensky under guidance of his masters in Washington is doing just that. He is forcing able bodied men into frontlines where they get decimated. A gun can be replaced in a year, but a man doesn't get replaced so easily. Now Zelensky is consripting 16 years old kids, which means the Ukraine wouldn't have a unscarred generation or a stable society for decades to come. If the kids are pushed into the fronlines, it will create havoc on their psyche and even if they survive, the damage done to their mind not only will screw them forvever but also the society they will live in.

Ukraine has lost the war. But it is adament about killing itself so thoroughly that nothing worthwhile should survive.
 

Master Chief

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Has this Ryber ever learnt the meaning of the word - 'morale'?

More kingdom fell because men were forced into battles as cannon fodders by people sitting in high towers. Perhaps he needs to visit the history book and read about fall of Tsar and rise of the global menace communism.

It takes a special mindset and will power to fight at the front. Those who were able and willing and most fortitude, had already joined armed forces and are either at the front now or has become a number. The so called military age men left to be called up will be unwilling conscripts with low morale and even less ability to fight. Hard time does transform some people into their harder self, but most crumple under stress. Now, you take a random dude, put him in a uniform, show him the right end of the rifle and expect him to fight against the massive brutal assault by a superior force where he knows his chance of survival is lesser than him getting to become a millionaire, how do you think he will fare?

What you people fail to see is that the whole process of grind has beenmuch more beneficial to Russia. Once Russia decided not to push in Kiev - a very wise decision in the hindsight - the option left to Russia is to destroy Ukraine's military capabilities forever. The idiot Zelensky under guidance of his masters in Washington is doing just that. He is forcing able bodied men into frontlines where they get decimated. A gun can be replaced in a year, but a man doesn't get replaced so easily. Now Zelensky is consripting 16 years old kids, which means the Ukraine wouldn't have a unscarred generation or a stable society for decades to come. If the kids are pushed into the fronlines, it will create havoc on their psyche and even if they survive, the damage done to their mind not only will screw them forvever but also the society they will live in.

Ukraine has lost the war. But it is adament about killing itself so thoroughly that nothing worthwhile should survive.
Attrition works both ways.. The Russian 155th Marine brigade which got hammered in its attack on Vuhledar, was reconstituted with fresh meat, after it got decimated last fall when trying to capture Pavlivka to the south.. So, their effectiveness was not the same..
The 3 million figure I gave is a third of the men of fighting age available to Ukraine.. since, you can't draft all the men for war, as other functions of the economy need to be taken care of.. Historically like in the American Civil war and World War 2 Germany, the losing side continued to fight until it lost a third of its fighting age men..
Russia should build a buffer in southern donetsk and Zaporizye before Ukraine builds up enough reserves and equipment, to threaten the Crimean land bridge..



 

indiatester

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Attrition works both ways.. The Russian 155th Marine brigade which got hammered in its attack on Vuhledar, was reconstituted with fresh meat, after it got decimated last fall when trying to capture Pavlivka to the south.. So, their effectiveness was not the same..
The 3 million figure I gave is a third of the men of fighting age available to Ukraine.. since, you can't draft all the men for war, as other functions of the economy need to be taken care of.. Historically like in the American Civil war and World War 2 Germany, the losing side continued to fight until it lost a third of its fighting age men..
Russia should build a buffer in southern donetsk and Zaporizye before Ukraine builds up enough reserves and equipment, to threaten the Crimean land bridge..



Most slips on the losses from Ukrainian side have been to the tune of 100000 to 150000.
Of the ~40 million population of Ukraine, only ~11 million are fighting age men.
Its like 1% of their fighting age men (usually the more productive ones).

Russia has seen losses, but not to this extent. They were quick to retreat to save their men instead of holding on to piece of land for satisfying some talking heads ego.

1675832384032.png


From https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/
 

DumbPilot

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If RuAF start bringing out its SEAD and carpet bombing out in force, then the 3 million men will be cannon fodder as well. Russia still has the edge in artillery. If Ukraine mass those men, they will be locked into place by Russian forces and bombed into smithereens by Russian artillery. Russia is content to trade some territory away if it means killing the men because then Ukrainian society would be fucked as a whole for several generations and be in no position to resist. Ukraine will not be made whole for at least 50-75 years.
I believe the issue is not that they are not bringing out SEAD, it's that they don't have the capability in the first place. Not talking about ordnance or electronics(though that does play a role) I'm talking more about tactics and overall doctrine.

Though I suppose we will see in due time that if they learned anything from this past year or not
 

blackjack

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Jesus Christ man for the user above, just take the fucking Julian Roepke route its not that hard, my fucking god you have to be actually working for a western intel agency at this point even Arestovich took the fucking hint. The number of tanks being sent to Ukraine depending on time periods as well is a joke compared to the set production the Russians have on armored vehicles. Based on the experiences of Yemen and Syria Wagner has like 20 more ways of ass fucking western tanks than Assads troops or the houthi rebels did and even than they have more hidden capabilities that have not been used yet in this war like the Hermes missiles. I could even out tweet and out telegram your ass if you want to compare destroyed equipment thinking your double post is worth anything. There are still like 500 thousand Russian troops outside of Ukraine's borders and the only ones getting their asses kicked is the AFU by a bunch of convicts as of now whose lives are as meaningless as the Ukrainian civilians being forced by the AFU to fight.
 

blackjack

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I believe the issue is not that they are not bringing out SEAD, it's that they don't have the capability in the first place. Not talking about ordnance or electronics(though that does play a role) I'm talking more about tactics and overall doctrine.

Though I suppose we will see in due time that if they learned anything from this past year or not
Can you, ylslide and master chief go someplace else where the NSA will pay you guys better than working here overtime? Russians have already stockpiled on western electronics and even the turks are getting bitched at by the west for giving electronics to Russia. there is even a photonic integrated circuit production set for 2024. Just like azeri armenian border conflict artillery gets the job done.
 

DumbPilot

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Can you, ylslide and master chief go someplace else where the NSA will pay you guys better than working here overtime? Russians have already stockpiled on western electronics and even the turks are getting bitched at by the west for giving electronics to Russia. there is even a photonic integrated circuit production set for 2024. Just like azeri armenian border conflict artillery gets the job done.
Fuck off, tankie.

I'll tell you when I see proper SEAD efforts from Russia. Flying frogfoots NOE and lobbing unguided rockets is not SEAD.
 

blackjack

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Fuck off, tankie.

I'll tell you when I see proper SEAD efforts from Russia. Flying frogfoots NOE and lobbing unguided rockets is not SEAD.
whatever gets the job done, I will at least give you credit unlike the other user talking about 2 locations from months ago for some reason as something extraordinary out of the current situation that is going on. Soviet equipment just gets the job done right now and it seems Ukraine's is out of it to ask for more western equipment. The next concern is the time delivery, logistics, amount or if there is any western production going on.
 
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blackjack

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Will we Indians ever see such rearmament in our lives despite having two nuke armed hostile nations at our border.
Considering how close NATO bases are trying to get to China and Russia, if they are gone expect Chinese and Pakistani Zelenskies until India accepts subjugation. I have no idea on Indian politics if China or Pakistan is pushing ABM shields close to India's borders, if they are than it would be wise for India to start nuclear proliferation and invest in some submarines.
 

Sanglamorre

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Poland is treading in dangerous waters. They seem to be high on their trust in NATO, ignoring the fact that NATO's primary members are all developed nations with high woke quotient and very low tolerance of body bags. The verall loss of US troops in Afghanistan campaign wasn't even 5% of what Ukraine has lost in a year, and US turned its tail to scoot from there leaving behind their allies. Poland wants to have trust in them?! I guess Warsaw is missing missile barrage on it and is jeolous of Kiev.
Poland eager to trigger Art 5.
 

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