If I were in Putin's place, then I would not invade Ukraine. The decision to invade was unexpected for me. Well, I underestimated Putin's unpredictability.
Now I perceive this as a reality in which Russia must win and achieve its goals.
What is surprising, and perhaps a reflection of the Russian state's own ambivalence around the military objectives and the post war narrative, is the mainstream media's strangely muted coverage of the conflict in comparison to 2014-15. I'm only following Vesti FM and Rossiya 24 as Putin's primary media mouthpieces and beyond half hearted patriotic exhortations, interviews with ex generals and occasional footage of surrendered Ukrainian soldiers, there is very little real time reporting of events.
I'm following half a dozen Telegram channels offering real time updates from the frontline and it's becoming apparent that the Russian advance has stalled in the past 24 hours. Some of the footage being posted is from yesterday or the day before and there are several posts acknowledging that things may not be going 'as well as expected'. Maybe the slowing down is a tactical move by the Russians, a recognition of the reality that taking and holding big urban centres deep inside Ukraine would not only be difficult logistically, it would also incur a heavy toll militarily as well as result in significant civilian collateral damage which Putin desperately wants to avoid. The Ukrainian scorch earth policy of destroying civilian infrastructure and handing out arms to citizens without any vetting in order to sow long term chaos and increase the cost of any occupation/rebuilding (which would all be blamed on Russia as the instigator of the conflict) may also be weighing on the minds of the Russian establishment when considering their next moves.
It's also clear that support for military action among the Russian public is by no means unanimous- I've seen several polls on the said TG channels (bearing in mind these are very pro Russian forums where Ukrainians as constantly berated as hohli, bandergoli, svidomie etc) where support for the offensive is roughly split 60:40 in favour.
Whatever Putin has planned, he'll have to demonstrate tangible results in the next few days, either through an overthrow of the current Ukrainian dispensation or a widespread pro Russian uprising in the Russophone parts of the country- if he doesn't, there is every possibility the Russian public, and even his innermost circle, may turn against him.
m.economictimes.com
