Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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Varzone

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Don't forget how it all started. The Great Satan and the EU put reams of sanctions onto Russia. They also confiscated some $300 billion of Russia's reserves that were invested in the 'west'. The sanctions had been negotiated between the EU and the Great Satan and prepared for over several months.

The idea was to bankrupt Russia within a few weeks. The deluded people behind those sanctions had no idea how big and sanctions proved Russia's economy really is. The sanctions failed to influence Russia in any way but their consequences led to a shortfall of energy in Europe and increased the already high inflation rates.

Inflation in Russia is sinking and its general economic numbers are good. The now higher energy prices generate sufficient additional income to completely finance its war efforts.

A sane actor would conclude that the sanctions were a mistake and that lifting them would help Europe more than it would help Russia. But no, the Great Satan and European pseudo elites are no longer able to act in a sane manner. They are instead doubling down with the most crazy sanction scheme one has ever heard of:

An oil price cap.

How do you make a big producer of a rare commodity sell those goods below the general market price? Unless you have a very strong buyers cartel that can also buy that product from elsewhere you can not do this successfully. It is an economic impossibility.

Russia has declared that it will not sell any oil to any party that supports the G7 price fixing regime. That is why neither China nor India nor any other country besides the EU and The Great Satan will agree to adhere to it.

The whole idea is crazy and way too complicated to achieve anything.

This is of course an open invitation to other countries to enter the oil shipping and related financial services businesses at the cost of European companies.

China and India will both it to increase their market shares in those fields. Their ships will transport Russian oil to whoever wants to buy it for the market price minus the always negotiable Russian rebate.

Greek ships will sit idle or will be sold off while Indian and Chinese and other Asian tankers will be very, very busy. China's big insurance companies will happily join that new global services business.

That European bureaucrats agreed to this stupid U.S. idea, which will foremost hurt European businesses, is another sign that Brussels has given up on having any agency.

Today OPEC+ countries, the seller cartel for oil, reacted to the crazy sanctions idea and the upcoming global depression by agreeing to decrease their daily output by 2 million barrels. This was not done out of Saudi solidarity with Russia. Saudi Arabia needs oil at above $80/bl to finance its budget.

Brent Crude, which had fallen to $83/bl on September 26, has since risen to $93/bl.

The global demand for oil is around 100 million barrels per day. Should the demand stay up the 2% reduction in OPEC+ production will have significant price effects and $100 per barrel will be in easy reach.

But OPEC+ is committed to stable prices, not to significant price increases. During the OPEC+ session, the Saudi Prince Abdulazis showed this table:

View attachment 174620

Since the beginning of the year the prices for all forms of carbon based energy except crude oil have increased considerably. Abdulazis argued that the chart shows that OPEC+ is managing oil prices responsibly. The EU is certainly not doing similar.

The Biden administration has meanwhile nearly halved the content of the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This to keep U.S. pump prices down and the Democrats in power.

View attachment 174621

Neither is a responsible step to take.
He is comparing against gas and coal as if their prices are being decides by market forces.
 

Trial By Fire

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Won't work. Experts have opined that due to years of sanctions-induced underinvestment, Venezuela can’t produce enough to fill America’s Russia, and now Saudi shortfall. Maduro himself will never consider trade with the US until they recognize him as the legitimate President and return the confiscated Venezuelan reserves.

Venezuelan oil is also heavy and sour–also has high vanadium which will poison refinery catalysts.

In fact, in the short-run Venezuela’s oil is a non-starter. In the old days it was put into heated tankers to keep it from cooling to room temperature and turning to something like tar. It was sent to the nearby Dutch Island of Aurba and to the Texas coast which had the specialized refineries to turn it into heating oil for the US northeast and Number 2 bunker oil for the huge diesels that drive most big ships.

Nobody trusted Venezuela enough to build refineries there; thus the nearby Aruba refinery.

When the Great Satan stopped taking Venezuelan oil, the special tankers were scrapped and the Texas refineries were converted to use other, less polluting types of crude with fewer impurities like sulfur.

Basically they outsourced the pollution by outsourcing the diesel refineries. It will take a decade to bring those missing pieces back together.
 

Varzone

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Won't work. Experts have opined that due to years of sanctions-induced underinvestment, Venezuela can’t produce enough to fill America’s Russia, and now Saudi shortfall. Maduro himself will never consider trade with the US until they recognize him as the legitimate President and return the confiscated Venezuelan reserves.

Venezuelan oil is also heavy and sour–also has high vanadium which will poison refinery catalysts.

In fact, in the short-run Venezuela’s oil is a non-starter. In the old days it was put into heated tankers to keep it from cooling to room temperature and turning to something like tar. It was sent to the nearby Dutch Island of Aurba and to the Texas coast which had the specialized refineries to turn it into heating oil for the US northeast and Number 2 bunker oil for the huge diesels that drive most big ships.

Nobody trusted Venezuela enough to build refineries there; thus the nearby Aruba refinery.

When the Great Satan stopped taking Venezuelan oil, the special tankers were scrapped and the Texas refineries were converted to use other, less polluting types of crude with fewer impurities like sulfur.

Basically they outsourced the pollution by outsourcing the diesel refineries. It will take a decade to bring those missing pieces back together.
Yes... That's true but anything at this point is helpful. Even a few hundred thousand barrels and they need to start investment now to ensure less volatile future at same point so better late than ever.
 

Akim

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Can you give the timelines for both winters.
You won't guess. It was a warm winter before last year. Until mid-January. But then the blizzard and frost began. Until the end of March, although usually at this time it is already warm.
 

Trial By Fire

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Yes... That's true but anything at this point is helpful. Even a few hundred thousand barrels and they need to start investment now to ensure less volatile future at same point so better late than ever.
The investments are not the main issue here (though even that will take years to fill the giant shortfall). The main problem here is that Venezuelan oil is of really filthy quality, it's really sour (full of sulfur). Refineries are designed for sweet arab crude, Venezuelan oil has a very high amount of vanadium, it will poison refinery catalysts beyond repair.

At the same time, it is also true, that with Russia and now Saudi Arabia out of the picture, the Great Satan has LITERALLY nowhere else to go but Venezuela, which itself is a borderline impossible solution.
 

Varzone

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The investments are not the main issue here (though even that will take years to fill the giant shortfall). The main problem here is that Venezuelan oil is of really filthy quality, it's really sour (full of sulfur). Refineries are designed for sweet arab crude, Venezuelan oil has a very high amount of vanadium, it will poison refinery catalysts beyond repair.

At the same time, it is also true, that with Russia and now Saudi Arabia out of the picture, the Great Satan has LITERALLY nowhere else to go but Venezuela, which itself is a borderline impossible solution.
I guess the price of oil is going to stay high for the foreseeable future... Hoping china collapses and there is demand destruction.
That's the only the other way.
 

Dark Sorrow

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Won't work. Experts have opined that due to years of sanctions-induced underinvestment, Venezuela can’t produce enough to fill America’s Russia, and now Saudi shortfall. Maduro himself will never consider trade with the US until they recognize him as the legitimate President and return the confiscated Venezuelan reserves.

Venezuelan oil is also heavy and sour–also has high vanadium which will poison refinery catalysts.

In fact, in the short-run Venezuela’s oil is a non-starter. In the old days it was put into heated tankers to keep it from cooling to room temperature and turning to something like tar. It was sent to the nearby Dutch Island of Aurba and to the Texas coast which had the specialized refineries to turn it into heating oil for the US northeast and Number 2 bunker oil for the huge diesels that drive most big ships.

Nobody trusted Venezuela enough to build refineries there; thus the nearby Aruba refinery.

When the Great Satan stopped taking Venezuelan oil, the special tankers were scrapped and the Texas refineries were converted to use other, less polluting types of crude with fewer impurities like sulfur.

Basically they outsourced the pollution by outsourcing the diesel refineries. It will take a decade to bring those missing pieces back together.
Jamnagar refinery can process Venezuelan oil.
Reliance Industries accounted for 25% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2019.
 

Trial By Fire

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Jamnagar refinery can process Venezuelan oil.
Reliance Industries accounted for 25% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2019.
Yeah, so might help us IF Maduro agrees to the Great Satan's demands, allows investments and makes deals and the crippled Venezuelan oil industry is able to revive. And STILL won't be enough on its own to fill the void.

The Great Satan is fucked either way.
 

Trial By Fire

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I guess the price of oil is going to stay high for the foreseeable future... Hoping china collapses and there is demand destruction.
That's the only the other way.
You can hope, but the "China collapse" talk has been going on since the 90s, and I don't believe it'll happen now. What I think might happen is a kind of Cyber Pandemic:

1. to cover up the financial collapse
2. to take us into hot war (they'll blame it on Russia/China/S.A., etc.)

Get ready for bank bail-ins, infinite QE, "cyber lockdowns" to control money velocity, and perhaps even UBI via CBDC linked to digital ID and social credit scores.
 

Varzone

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Yeah, so might help us IF Maduro agrees to the Great Satan's demands, allows investments and makes deals and the crippled Venezuelan oil industry is able to revive. And STILL won't be enough on its own to fill the void.

The Great Satan is fucked either way.
At least India can maneuver it's way hopefully between Ven. Iran and Russia.
Atmanirbhar bano...

1665046456854.png
 

Varzone

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These troops will fight against "United might of the west"?


Lol, mobilised troops will get massacred in Ukraine. Change my mind.
 

Haldilal

लड़ते लड़ते जीना है, लड़ते लड़ते मरना है
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These troops will fight against "United might of the west"?


Lol, mobilised troops will get massacred in Ukraine. Change my mind.
Yall Nibbiars The Inserts are titanium. And this is the SSSH 94 Sfera S, the strongest helmet with titanium plates.


And @mist_consecutive Nibba.
 

Trial By Fire

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Several days after we learned that gas stations in France have run out of gasoline due to long-running oil refinery strikes, today the French government said that France has tapped its strategic fuel reserves to resupply petrol stations that have run dry, amid ongoing strikes by workers that have stunted refining production and blocked gasoline deliveries.

Government spokesman Olivier Veran acknowledged "tensions" but said there was no shortage of fuel stocks on a national level. He urged consumers not to panic-buy, which of course is the surest way to encourage panic buying, long lines, rationing and all the ugly scenes from those black and white photos of the 1970s.

In the hardest-hit Hauts-de-France region, authorities didn't even bother with rationing and banned outright the sale of petrol and diesel in jerry cans and other portable containers.

"We are obviously monitoring very, very closely the situation together with the operators and, here and there, when it was necessary, we have used our strategic stocks to enable the stations to be supplied," Veran told reporters.

A walkout by hard-left CGT trade union members at TotalEnergies has disrupted operations at two refineries and two storage facilities, while two Exxon Mobil refineries have faced similar problems since Sept. 20. The industrial action has left more than 60% of France's refining capacity offline.

Veran said roughly one in every 10 service stations nationally were experiencing some shortages, but that in the north the figure was closer to one in every three.

The silver lining: the UFIP petroleum industry body said the shortages at fuel pumps were due to logistics and not insufficient supplies. "There are no shortages in supply due to the strikes," a UFIP spokesperson said.

The CGT trade union is demanding a 10% salary increase from TotalEnergies to help catch up with soaring inflation, a massive investment plan and the hiring of temporary workers, said union delegate Thierry Defresne. So far, management has refused a catch-up salary increase for 2022, and wants only to negotiate 2023 wages, he added.

The UFIP has previously said France has enough strategic reserves of oil products to cover average demand for about three months. TotalEnergies has said it has increased imports and has additional stocks "that could last between 20 days and a month."

After that France will be effectively paralyzed, only it won't be Putin's fault but the labor unions.

It gets worse: outages in France's refining sector are creating uncertainty in the refined oil trade amid a heavy oil refinery maintenance season in Europe this autumn. "The strikes continue unabated", the union said in a statement on Wednesday evening, adding "the wage negotiations are far from over."

A few more weeks of this chaos, and it won't matter if the unions reach a deal: France will be out of strategic reserves for good and every incremental barrel will cost so much more.
 

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