Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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mokoman

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Russia is getting weakened , Armenia getting banged every few months and Russia cant do anything. most likely US will start meddling there soon .

Syria's Assad is already looking for support other than Russia - Turks will make a move there too .

These childish lgbt memes are great but reality is US military is still top . only people who can outmatch them is the Chinese but even they are decades away.

That's not how it works.. As GOI follows a hyper realist policy, US too would be inclined to do the same w.r.t India.. By the time the Ukraine war ends, US might not need India at all in the Indo-Pacific to contain China, with India losing what little leverage it has over US.
Now, the Ukraine war has led to the re-assertion of US hegemony over Europe, and a severe weakening of EU - Russia relations, and has severely constrained Russia's long term choices. In the coming years, NATO's eastern flank will be heavily militarized, with Poland as a hyper militarized power in Central Europe.. The current string of Russian setbacks in Ukraine, and the US Lend lease being activayed yesterday, suggest that Ukraine will neither be demilitarized nor denazified(I.e. Ukranian nationalists thrown out of power).. Russian military potential and its ability to project military power in its neighborhood like in Ce tral Asia, Azerbaijan- Armenia, Syria will continue to weaken, the longer the Ukranian conflict rages on..
So, increased defense spending and bigger European force deployments facing Russia, and a weakened Russia, would free lots of American economic and military resources, which would be directed towards China.. thus, severely degrading India's military utility to the US..
QUAD needs India - India needs QUAD to balance out China . i think we will use whatever tools necessary including QUAD to balance out everyone including the US.
 

Master Chief

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Without BHARAT the quad remains a talking shop nothing else.
Nope.. Without Bharat there will be no QUAD, as US, Japan and Australia are Treaty allies.. Probably, QUAD is on the way to irrelevance..
South Korea will not be involved in any US China war, since South korea is inside the first island chain. The utility of South Korea is as a military industrial powerhouse, to Arm American allies like Poland..
US China war over Taiwan will be fought at the first Island Chain (FIC), with Japan fighting on US side.. The coming decade will see US and Japan militarized the first Island chain with the same A2AD weapons that China has been deploying on the South China sea.. US military strategy would be to bottle up Chinese Navy inside the FIC, and destroy China's Navy and Trade slowly, while not getting too close to the Chinese coast.
So, India has almost no utility here..

A country with over 5000 nukes , perma membership unsc, massive natural resources can not be weakened.
Then, how did the Soviet Union economically weaken in the 80s..?
 

Tiwariji

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former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus on Sunday warned the US and NATO would wipe out the Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine and sink its Black Sea fleet if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons.

 

Master Chief

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If you think any Asian power will become the GLOBHOHOMOs vassal u are wrong
India won't be a vassal.. But, will evaluate its options viz a viz America on a case by case basis.. What, doesn't serve India, is reflexive hostility towards America.. and until now Modi Gov.is doing just fine w.r.t managing relations with America..
 

mokoman

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Nope.. Without Bharat there will be no QUAD, as US, Japan and Australia are Treaty allies.. Probably, QUAD is on the way to irrelevance..
South Korea will not be involved in any US China war, since South korea is inside the first island chain. The utility of South Korea is as a military industrial powerhouse, to Arm American allies like Poland..
US China war over Taiwan will be fought at the first Island Chain (FIC), with Japan fighting on US side.. The coming decade will see US and Japan militarized the first Island chain with the same A2AD weapons that China has been deploying on the South China sea.. US military strategy would be to bottle up Chinese Navy inside the FIC, and destroy China's Navy and Trade slowly, while not getting too close to the Chinese coast.
So, India has almost no utility here..


Then, how did the Soviet Union economically weaken in the 80s..?
IMHO QUAD is still needed for Indian ocean . and without India , no point to QUAD atleast as far as IOR is concerned.

no clue what US end game is but Russia wont be going anywhere . they still have massive oil/gas reserves - and India/China wont stop trading with them .

besides once winter hits - inflation hits the roof in west - things may still turn to Russia's favour. i think we will see sanctions on Russia being lifted one by one.
 

Jimih

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besides once winter hits - inflation hits the roof in west - things may still turn to Russia's favour. i think we will see sanctions on Russia being lifted one by one.
Apart only from NordStreams all other Russian gas pipelines to Europe seems to be operational.
 

Dark Sorrow

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Apart only from NordStreams all other Russian gas pipelines to Europe seems to be operational.
NordStreams were most important in Russian POV.
It was the most profitable with NordStream 2 expected to be even more profitable.
 

Tiwariji

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So USA got away with bombing Russian pipeline made with investment of 10s of billions without any consequences.. We might be making a mistake if we are assuming USA wont get directly involved in case of a nuke attack ... They ll simply say war ll be conventional and only at the former Ukraine territory without any loss the mainland Russia . New threshold ll be created . Wonder how Russia ll react .
 

Love Charger

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After Kharkiv, Lyman Now even Kherson front collapsing. It seems except for blindly firing Soviet Era Artillery, Russians have no plan, no equipment, no communication network and inadequate manpower
They are embarrassing themselves very much, indian army would have defeated Russians better
 

JBH22

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They are embarrassing themselves very much, indian army would have defeated Russians better
Don't be that confident once the shooting starts you would be embarrassed. You forgot we lost a chopper for the simple reason IFF tracker was not on. Just imagine OFB faulty ammo, incompetence etc. To cover this we would be forced fed with patriotism and sacrifice of officers.
 

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