Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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blackjack

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APU units are successfully advancing on Kherson like carrots on a grater

The steppes of the Kherson region are littered with bats and abandoned enemy equipment, including:

Tanks T-72M1 and T-64BV

BMP-1 and BMP-2

BTR - YPR 765

Armored cars "Kozak" and "Kirpi"

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temujin

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It's from Zerohedge but well referenced, sets out a plausible scenario as we approach winter. The basic premise does make sense when you consider the desparate dash by Ukrainians across multiple fronts.


The other critical variable is the looming financial crisis that could end Western support to Ukraine, dependant on foreign aid even for day to day expenses, overnight.
 

ovalpiston

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Credit Suisse has been on the brink for months so lots of uncertainty around this but if true, the world may be approaching a Lehmann X 1000 moment that would momentarily change the dynamics of this war- if this comes off, nobody in the West will have the time or money to spunk on Ukropia


PS: Report being attributed to ABC Australia but I cannot find the original source. Being reported in several places. Credit has been in the news quite a bit in the past week to be fair. It'll be an interesting opening to the markets tomorrow.
OT for this thread but it will not be a Lehman Brothers moment. CS liquidity issues are not new and its been in the news on and off for a while now. Trouble with Lehman and Bear Stearns was none of the other institutes saw it coming, so they all had significant exposure resulting in a systemic risk. AIG was unable to cover the risk and the entire system reached a point of total collapse before the reserve banks began the nursing them back to health.
 

temujin

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OT for this thread but it will not be a Lehman Brothers moment. CS liquidity issues are not new and its been in the news on and off for a while now. Trouble with Lehman and Bear Stearns was none of the other institutes saw it coming, so they all had significant exposure resulting in a systemic risk. AIG was unable to cover the risk and the entire system reached a point of total collapse before the reserve banks began the nursing them back to health.
The fact you don't expect it to be a Lehmann moment would in itself make it a black swan 🤣. I've pointed out in my post that the problems with CS and Deutsch have been well known for some time but what's different this time is that reserve banks cannot 'nurse them back to health' through NIRP and quantitative easing. In fact it's all that 'nursing back' since 2008 that lies at the root of much the market turmoil we are witnessing now.

CS has outstanding liabilities of SFR 700 billion on its balance sheet and is unable to raise money from the markets or its own shareholders at the moment- It can only end one way and no reserve Bank can print enough money in the current environment to buy up all of its bad debt without inducing a systematic collapse. Once CS falls, it could set off a doom loop- it may happen tomorrow or a month later but happen it will- the fact CS staff have spent all weekend on the phone reassuring clients and their CFO, Dixit Joshi, has fled to India would suggest some panic in the ranks already
 

blackjack

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Not to piss Varzone off again, but more information that a ukrainian soldiers was interviewed stating the loss of 5 ukrainians for every 1 russian soldier. at 8:00
 

Master Chief

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Macron promising to help restore full Ukranian sovereignty.. Looks like with current Russian military setbacks and with 4 more Provinces being added to Mother Russia.. Crimea has lost its unique status, and the west is getting emboldened to having a go at Mother Russia in all these 5 new suppossedly Russian territories..

NATO to Mother Russia:


images (36).jpeg


Man .. even Macron isn't taking Putin's nuclear Kamikaze Ninja act seriously.. It's time Putin nukes Kadyrov's goat, and makes a tiktok video of it, and shows it NATO.. and re-establish those redlines.. :bplease:

Screenshot_20221003-001049_Twitter.jpg
 

ovalpiston

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The fact you don't expect it to be a Lehmann moment would in itself make it a black swan 🤣. I've pointed out in my post that the problems with CS and Deutsch have been well known for some time but what's different this time is that reserve banks cannot 'nurse them back to health' through NIRP and quantitative easing. In fact it's all that 'nursing back' since 2008 that lies at the root of much the market turmoil we are witnessing now.

CS has outstanding liabilities of SFR 700 billion on its balance sheet and is unable to raise money from the markets or its own shareholders at the moment- It can only end one way and no reserve Bank can print enough money in the current environment to buy up all of its bad debt without inducing a systematic collapse. Once CS falls, it could set off a doom loop- it may happen tomorrow or a month later but happen it will- the fact CS staff have spent all weekend on the phone reassuring clients and their CFO, Dixit Joshi, has fled to India would suggest some panic in the ranks already
The very definition of a "black swan event" is something that occurs unforeseen, not something that is anticipated. Please note that the total derivatives is over $200 trillion today, a $700 billion liability is nothing more than a blip from the perspective of the size of the overall system. The biggest difference between now and then is unlike 2008 when many of these banks were leveraged 30 : 1 and in some cases 40 : 1, today the leverage is < 10 : 1, well below the historical norms. The Federal Reserve too forces periodic stress tests on banks to ensure they are well capitalized and protected from systemic risks, something they never did prior to the great recession of 2009. Just to put things into perspective, when the once-in-a-generation pandemic struck, the US federal reserve added a whooping $4.3 trillion dollars to its balance sheet within 12 months ! With stores reporting excess inventory, the shipping index dropping back to normalcy, product and labor shortages subsiding, a dropping inflation will let the feds use plenty of arrows from its quiver if things do get rocky. In the unlikely scenario of CS going under its healthier assets will be bought up by other institutions, some of its investors will take a haircut and we will move on to the next "crisis".
 
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It's from Zerohedge but well referenced, sets out a plausible scenario as we approach winter. The basic premise does make sense when you consider the desparate dash by Ukrainians across multiple fronts.


The other critical variable is the looming financial crisis that could end Western support to Ukraine, dependant on foreign aid even for day to day expenses, overnight.
this is wishful thinking from all the recent comments from western leaders they are ready to sacrifice their people and economies to support Ukraine and make sure the war continues
 
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Russian Deputy PM says restoration of Nord Stream possible
 

ww2historian

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Why such a small proportion. Let's go 1 to 100.
In all the wars of the past, the Russian Empire / USSR, Ukrainians were in the Russian army. Now, out of anger, you ate all the tables, because you see where the real warriors are.
The only thing I'm angry about is the US sticking it's nose where is doesn't belong. We (yes I'm from the US) decided to use Ukraine as tool to destroy Russia. If you haven't figure out by now the the US was behind the coup in 2014, you're in worst denial than I thought. Ukrainians dying on the battlefield isn't protecting my freedom from Russia. That's the narrative the US is trying to sell to simple minded people. So Ukrainians are dying for a cause they don't even know about.
 

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