Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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GaudaNaresh

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Raw material cost, fuel and energy cost are being manipulated by Russians to keep the cost down on paper.
They are severely undercharging for these materials when the sell to Russian armed forces. The can do this because all is owned by state enterprises.
The same happens in ALL defence industries. Regardless, the main reason russian maal is 4-5x cheaper than the US maal is because of the value of the rouble and ALL local work & supplies are paid in rouble.
 

ww2historian

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Donbas is the perfect terrain for Russians doctrine.
Russian should have steam rolled the Ukrainians with massive armored thrust.
Yet the invasion has slowed down to crawling pace.
Their is no such thing as wonder weapons but HIMARS, M777 and Javelin have managed to slow down Russia by inflicting severe damage and casualties.
Donbas is Ukraine's most heavily fortified area. Once this falls (and it will soon) Odessa is next. If Russia could steam roll it with minimal casualties they would. They know more than you and I.
 

GaudaNaresh

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While losing Pesky is significant.. UKRAINE will not lose Donetsk in a few weeks.. In fact it will take a few months for Ukraine to lose all of Donetsk, unless Russia significantly steps up the number of troops....


This is true..Unlike the US military at the end of the cold war, US military and more importantly US military industrial complex today is not geared towards high intensity conflict. If you remember even until a year ago, the idea of prolonged high intensity conflict between near peer nuclear rivals was considered to be impossible by western think tankers.. US military industrial base atrophied over the past 30 years through lack of orders, relentles consolidation and embrace of Just in time mentality, which removed surge capacity.. While Russia is not as formidable as the Soviet Union, and Russia lost a lot of military industrial capacity after the collapse of Soviet Union, it has rebuilt capacities in some sectors over the past couple of decades..
Now the war in Ukraine has woken up US to the prospect of industrial high intensity warfare with near peer nuclear powers. And there is nothing better than war, to bring out deficiencies in US production capabilities of 20th century mainstay weapons like Artillery, Rocket launchers and associated ammunition..
So, US in the coming years will reorient its own and those of its allies' Industries towards industrial warfare. But, that will be too late for Ukraine..
US has a far bigger problem, much like the west : It cannot sustain the SOCIAL COST of high intensity warfare. Its just that simple.
Why is the nearly 1 trillion dollar budget military, with the budget of the next 6 nations combined, lacking in surge capacity and high intensity warfare ? Not because it was deemed unnecessary. But because US went through a severe social turmoil due to body bag syndrome of vietnam war - something that has plagued them in gulf war part-2 & afghan war.
How do you ensure your body bags are minimal ? By investing in high precision equipment. Which cost mucho dinero. Which means, you cannot have a stockpile of 1 million ATACAMs.

The main hurdle for US and the west, has always been that, for the last 50 years : they cannot sustain high intensity war's social cost. Just flip the situation around. Say Ukraine is Russia and Russia is USA. Say all the numbers are true - Ukraine ( Russia in our argument) has lost 200K troops and Russia( USA in our argument) has lost 50K troops inside six months.
Do you seriously see US continuing said war ?
The answer is no.

This is why the west is geared towards low intensity, high pecision war or window-dressing show of force vs a vastly inferior side like Iraq or Afghanistan : too much of a pooh-c socially to deal with mass bodybags, which cannot be avoided in high intensity conflict.
 

ww2historian

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Does the west need any more proof? This POS is the reason why I want Ukraine to lose.
Ukrainian Nazi Korchinsky proposed to strike at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant!?
"
They can be stopped only with a nuclear attack" “Yes, it is a risk. Many people will suffer ... You have to strike, there is no other way."


 

Dark Sorrow

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The same happens in ALL defence industries. Regardless, the main reason russian maal is 4-5x cheaper than the US maal is because of the value of the rouble and ALL local work & supplies are paid in rouble.
No true, atleast not in India.
When any company be it public sector or private sector sells material to defence industry they sell them at market rate. No special discounts are offered.
Till recently government used to even collect import customs from defence product (e.g. tank, guns, etc.).
 

karn

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No true, atleast not in India.
When any company be it public sector or private sector sells material to defence industry they sell them at market rate. No special discounts are offered.
Till recently government used to even collect import customs from defence product (e.g. tank, guns, etc.).
What he is referring to is the relative cost of all things in a country .. Russian or Indian labour is is far cheaper compared to West which matches their cost of living .
The only reason an Indian defence product would be close to a western one in cost is cause it would have western components in it . A problem the Russians do not have .
 
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Dark Sorrow

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What he is referring to is the relative cost of all things in a country .. Russian or Indian labor is is far cheaper compared to West which matches their cost of living .
The only reason an Indian defence product would be close to a western one in cost is cause it would have western components in it . A problem the Russians do not have .
R&D cost is the biggest cost followed by Material cost is the biggest cost in defence equipment along with capital cost for infrastructure, machines, etc. Labor cost is not great as most manufacturing as most steps are automated.

Defence manufacturing is not like FMCG manufacturing where labor cost are a major factor else US MIC would have outsourced their entire supply chain to PRC long time ago.
 

Master Chief

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US has a far bigger problem, much like the west : It cannot sustain the SOCIAL COST of high intensity warfare. Its just that simple.
Why is the nearly 1 trillion dollar budget military, with the budget of the next 6 nations combined, lacking in surge capacity and high intensity warfare ? Not because it was deemed unnecessary. But because US went through a severe social turmoil due to body bag syndrome of vietnam war - something that has plagued them in gulf war part-2 & afghan war.
How do you ensure your body bags are minimal ? By investing in high precision equipment. Which cost mucho dinero. Which means, you cannot have a stockpile of 1 million ATACAMs.

The main hurdle for US and the west, has always been that, for the last 50 years : they cannot sustain high intensity war's social cost. Just flip the situation around. Say Ukraine is Russia and Russia is USA. Say all the numbers are true - Ukraine ( Russia in our argument) has lost 200K troops and Russia( USA in our argument) has lost 50K troops inside six months.
Do you seriously see US continuing said war ?
The answer is no.

This is why the west is geared towards low intensity, high pecision war or window-dressing show of force vs a vastly inferior side like Iraq or Afghanistan : too much of a pooh-c socially to deal with mass bodybags, which cannot be avoided in high intensity conflict.
While it is true that US establishment, since Vietnam has not been able to bear the social cost of high intensity conflict, US industrial warfare capabilities did not atrophy after Vietnam.. US had 3.5 lakh troops in Europe in late 80s.. and trained to fight high intensity conventional war on a continental scale every year.. The Air land Concept adopted in the 80s..is about US Army engaging in Maneuver warfare like the Soviet Army, with US Air force hitting the Soviet Army's rear.. It was the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the heady feel of the End of History, that decayed US industrial warfare capabilities..
US never cares for the lives of cannon fodder like Ukranians. If the US had the surge capabilities it had during the cold war, the war in Ukraine would have been far uglier, for both Ukraine and Russia..
 

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