Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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ww2historian

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Just like tanks are obsolete hot takes became popular in the initial weeks, now it's time for Russian mass artillery is soo awaswm hot air. Just having more boom does not nessesarily mean the Russians have better technology (they don't) or that they have better tactics - hard to make a convincing argument when they are making progress only at excruciating pace even after lobbing so many shells that the landscape looking like this.
In one day they launch about 70k shells. That's about how many Ukrainians they've killed. It means they have to fire at least a hundred shells to kill one soldier. However the artillery has destroyed a lot of heavy equipment and keeps them pinned down.
 

Chimpoo

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In one day they launch about 70k shells. That's about how many Ukrainians they've killed. It means they have to fire at least a hundred shells to kill one soldier. However the artillery has destroyed a lot of heavy equipment and keeps them pinned down.
Ukraine's land forces command logistics commander, Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, in an interview from this month estimated that the Ukrainian Army had suffered around 50% equipment combat losses.


"Gen. Karpenko: ...... I just want you to understand the intensity of the conflict. While the deputy minister was talking, I drafted some numbers to just show you the intensity of combat along those … kilometers where the combat is most active.

Think about this: one brigade occupies around 40 kilometers of the fence line. That means that to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them.

I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.

That is a mathematical estimation we can make based on the length of the frontline and the intensity of the conflict.
So, I'm giving you this estimate just for you to understand how significant the requirement is based on the intensity of the conflict.

So, think about it. If the current need for artillery systems is 700 vehicles, that needs to be replenished because they were destroyed. And we have only received 100 vehicles for example from [foreign] aid. … Then there [are] medical needs, the air force troops, the special forces and all the other branches and services that are also fighting in this war."


https://www.nationaldefensemagazine...industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons
 

Blademaster

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OMG, imagine using 155mm against individual soldiers. How much a 155mm cost, around 20-25 lakh.
a trained soldier cost around 1.5 crore (around $130k). That's a 80 lakh rupees difference in positive in favor of the force firing the artillery. It takes 5 artillery round to get a kill whereas it takes about 2.5 million bullets to get a kill on average.
 

Blademaster

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Ukraine's land forces command logistics commander, Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, in an interview from this month estimated that the Ukrainian Army had suffered around 50% equipment combat losses.


"Gen. Karpenko: ...... I just want you to understand the intensity of the conflict. While the deputy minister was talking, I drafted some numbers to just show you the intensity of combat along those … kilometers where the combat is most active.

Think about this: one brigade occupies around 40 kilometers of the fence line. That means that to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them.

I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.

That is a mathematical estimation we can make based on the length of the frontline and the intensity of the conflict.
So, I'm giving you this estimate just for you to understand how significant the requirement is based on the intensity of the conflict.

So, think about it. If the current need for artillery systems is 700 vehicles, that needs to be replenished because they were destroyed. And we have only received 100 vehicles for example from [foreign] aid. … Then there [are] medical needs, the air force troops, the special forces and all the other branches and services that are also fighting in this war."


https://www.nationaldefensemagazine...industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons
Basically he is admitting that he has lost 13 brigades worth already and they are down to 25-27 brigades.
 

pipebomb

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a trained soldier cost around 1.5 crore (around $130k). That's a 80 lakh rupees difference in positive in favor of the force firing the artillery. It takes 5 artillery round to get a kill whereas it takes about 2.5 million bullets to get a kill on average.
If one can look past collateral damage (like Russia has been since forever) then above approach might seem logical imho.
Btw could you please point me towards a source for 5 artillery rounds vs 2.5 million bullets for a kill
 

Soldier355

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The moment and result of the missile strike on the hangars in Kremenchug in Ukraine. Russian troops attacked the area of the Kremenchug plant of road machines "Kredmash" in the hangars of which, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, foreign ammunition was stored. As a result of the missile strike, the blast wave from the detonation of ammunition damaged the Amstor shopping center located nearby, as a result of which a fire started there. Ukrainian media reported that the strike of Russian missiles was aimed at the Amstor shopping center in Kremenchug. But on the frames that you see, a crater from a rocket impact is clearly visible and it is located on the territory of the hangars of the Kremenchug plant of road machines "Kredmash".


The Russian Defense Ministry showed footage of the combat duty of the crew of the Nebo-SV radar and the combat work of the Buk-M3 air defense system. The calculation of the 1L13 "Sky-SV" radar station searches and detects targets and determines their nationality by sending a "Friend or Foe" request. Based on the results of the target's response, the radar crew makes a decision to destroy the target and transmits the data to the crew of the Buk-M3 air defense system. The detection range of fighter-type targets at high altitudes reaches 380 km, at low altitudes up to 65 km. The Russian radar "Nebo-SV" was put into service in 1986.


New weapons of Ukraine, mobile MLRS and machine guns. Recently, Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that a turning point would soon come at the front, but no one understood what he meant. Perhaps it was meant that new types of weapons would appear in the Ukrainian army, if I may say so about them. We have already talked about the homemade Ukrainian MLRS. Now the new MLRS installations have become more perfect, S-8 rockets are launched not from a trailer, as before, but from the body of a Mitsubishi L200 pickup truck. In addition, an installation with a large-caliber machine gun in a trailer is currently being tested, most likely this is the first prototype, apparently, it is still far from being put into production.

 

Blademaster

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If one can look past collateral damage (like Russia has been since forever) then above approach might seem logical imho.
Btw could you please point me towards a source for 5 artillery rounds vs 2.5 million bullets for a kill
I recalled it from watching a documentary on Vietnam War, the creation of the M-16 gun, its subsequent problems, and how US achieved its kills and how much ordnance it expended. It says for every enemy killed, US expended about 2.5 million rounds

And correlate it with the number of shells being launched by the Russians today and the casualties it gets each day. Russia says it fires about 60k-70k shells a day and it achieves 1000 Ukrainian casualties. So that gives you a rough idea of the ratio.
 

GaudaNaresh

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I recalled it from watching a documentary on Vietnam War, the creation of the M-16 gun, its subsequent problems, and how US achieved its kills and how much ordnance it expended. It says for every enemy killed, US expended about 2.5 million rounds

And correlate it with the number of shells being launched by the Russians today and the casualties it gets each day. Russia says it fires about 60k-70k shells a day and it achieves 1000 Ukrainian casualties. So that gives you a rough idea of the ratio.
to be fair, this is only russian heavy ordanances. we have no idea how many bullets the rooskies are firing from their guns per day.

it all depends on how they are conducting their operations - if its soften up the enemy & then move in with infantry, the light ordanance number can easily b 50-100 times that of the heavy ordanances.
If its pulverise the enemy till nothing moves and then move in, then its likely the same or lower.
 

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