QUAD; The Concert of Democracies for Trade, Security & Diplomacy

[The Shrike]

I hope it is a false information. There couldn't be anything worse than such negligence.

One hopes so, but he is once of the well informed journalists in the area. And it would be par for the course from our defence decision makers - our conventional sub fleet has already been effed up, with our sub fleet expected to dwindle down to the same/similar number as the Paxis.
At the end of the day having a sizeable fleet of nuke subs will require a commitment to spend serious amounts of money over decades, the Aussies are showing this commitment (easily $50B+) in the face of the Chinese challenge, while we are simply not. The consequence will be that in a few decades time they will have more SSNs ("at least 8" per the statement, making it the 4th largest SSN fleet) than IN and consequently the projection power in IOR.

 

[The Shrike]

An preliminary analysis of the situation leads to one inescapable fact.
France has just lost an promising sale worth tens of billions of US dollars over the next decade and beyond.

If India were to approach France for help in the SSN programme, the French may be receptive. Many imponderables are there like
1. agreement on the price
2.extent of technology transfer
3.choice of shipyard in India(we should remember that Dassault was reluctant
to partner with the public sector HAL for the Rafale programme) etc.
So even though theoretically the prospect of French assistance has improved there will be many issues which will have to be resolved.

One reality is that Washington has lost the moral high ground to lecture others on not sharing sensitive technologies. The French will hardly be impressed by any argument coming out of Washington since they have been made to bear heavy losses from the cancellation of the Australian contract for the Short Fin Barracuda.

One pertinent question - how does Russian nuclear submarine technology compare with the French nuclear submarine technology levels.

Are we better off sticking with the Russians or can the French offer something extra.

I don't think our SSBN programme needs French assistance. So we may be considering French help only for the SSN project.

There is nothing to leverage, we have not shown the capacity to spend money required. Our MoD will get a cardiac arrest if they are shown a 60 billion USD bill for a weapons deal.
But I have to admit that seeing the French getting kicked in the nuts was very satisfying, they were pompously claiming they will not share Short Fin Barracuda tech to anyone else (i.e. India).

 

[asianobserve]

I know now why the Aussies ditched French submarines, they did not want to include France in their AUKUS for it will not sound right... something like FAUK-US...so the French have to go.

 

[Tridev123]

Most likely Tomahawk block V 1000+ miles range.

If they give BM tech in secret I won't be surprised. Maybe they will help them with a jet engine and stealth design too. Be prepared to see Australia testing some advance "indigenous" weapons in next few years.


It's another UK in making.

I would like to put things in perspective.
Some statements have been made that Australia will become the next Asian Superpower in the league of China and India. And the US and its allies in Asia will dominate the whole of Asia.

Let's take a look at Australia.
It is a very big country of continental size. And has enormous natural resources.

But it is sparsely populated. Has only about 25 million people. Our UP state alone has almost 3 to 4 times that population.And population does matter. After all the GDP is the sum of economic output of all the people in a country. That's putting it very simple.

Australia is almost 8000 km from India. Taking it as an yardstick. The fact is it is thousands of kilometres from most countries of Asia.

The majority of the population of Asia are non Caucasian. Even if one considers Russia as an Asian power, the number of white Russians in its Asian part is probably less than 20 million people.

Europe is a different matter as most of them are Caucasians. But the Asian countries will never accept an Caucasian white country lording over them. The United States despite being an white Caucasian country has enormous influence in Asia. True. But its GDP is around 20 trillion dollars. And it has enormous scientific resources. For Australia to match the US in output it will take several decades of high growth.

Also the combined GDP of China, Japan, India and Indonesia alone would be close to US GDP figures. So the economic center of gravity in Asia is not favouring Australia.

Rather than Australia if the US had plans to turn Indonesia into another Japan, that would affect us and the rest of Asia profoundly. Indonesia is an big Asian non Caucasian country.

Australia will get stronger, no doubt but India will not feel any tremors.
We are already one of the fastest growing economies in the world and our GDP will only increase. Both India and Australia will chart their own paths and need not be in conflict.

And don't forget. Our military is already the 4th largest and strongest in the world.
We have a minimum of a decade lead over Australia in the strategic nuclear arena presently.

 

[Dark Sorrow]

 

[asianobserve]

If US is selling its most secretive nuke sub tech to Australia, then most likely the US will also sell B-21s to Australia.

 

[Covfefe]

If US is selling its most secretive nuke sub tech to Australia, then most likely the US will also sell B-21s to Australia.

Let wait and see what the US ultimately sells to Aussies. They never sell their top-of-the-line technology, understandably so, to any country - it's either a different product for the export market or an export variant (read nerfed down). Aussie subs might not have the level of uranium enrichment levels that US reactors use or a smaller reactor to power a smaller sub.

 

[The Shrike]

Some insight into how quickly the decision was made, Australia approached UK just earlier this year.

On the question about how much money they will spend on defence, Australia PM: “whatever it takes.”

 

[Lost user]

That refurbished junk which you are talking about still scares the living daylights out of the West.
And don't for a second think that the Aussies will be getting those state of the art Virginias, they have way too much classified tech to give to an ally which was few years ago in bed with China.
At best the Aussies will be getting modernized LA class subs with a few inputs from the UK.

One doubt that irks me.. Assuming the SSNs patrol along with Indian SSBNs to set up a defensive perimeter during a deterrence patrol.. And if Russia has installed some kind of locator on the Akula SSNs that it has leased India., then India will end up giving up the approximate location of our SSBNs, which would prove to be a disaster in war time..

 

[Lost user]

If US is selling its most secretive nuke sub tech to Australia, then most likely the US will also sell B-21s to Australia.

B-21s would be important. But, they are not even close to how important the Virginia class submarine is to the US. The credibility of US second strike capability is almost completely dependent on the Virginia class submarines, and these subs will be the best subs that America will field for the foreseeable future.. So, I don't see US sharing Virginia class submarine technology with Australia..

 

[Lost user]

Wow.. that escalated quickly.. For all the European hopes that Biden would be a more Euro sensitive president, we see that Biden is actually accelerating the America first trend which started with Trump presidency..

France recalls its ambassadors to the US and Australia over new national security partnership

France recalls its ambassadors to the US and Australia over new national security partnership

The French government has immediately recalled its ambassador to the US for consultation in response to the recently announced national security partnership with the United Kingdom and Australia.

www.cnn.com

Meanwhile Putin be like:

 

[Lost user]

Include the aussies as well.. When is France recalling Ambassador from UK ..Lol Buddhau Biden

 

[werewolf]

Include the aussies as well.. When is France recalling Ambassador from UK ..Lol Buddhau Biden

View attachment 110638

Now this is getting ridiculous. Honestly the french guys are overreacting. They should atleast understand no way Aus was going to to hand them over the deal after convincing the yanks to get their top of the line tech and that too SSN tech. As the fog on the deal gets clearer it was Australia who started the discussion not USA. Why they are mostly pissedoff on Yanks rather than Ausssies is best known to them

 

[Jimih]

Now this is getting ridiculous. Honestly the french guys are overreacting. They should atleast understand no way Aus was going to to hand them over the deal after convincing the yanks to get their top of the line tech and that too SSN tech.

SSNs are a better choice for Australia than conventional subs of the France and which they were selling at a high price.

 

[Lost user]

B-21s would be important. But, they are not even close to how important the Virginia class submarine is to the US. The credibility of US second strike capability is almost completely dependent on the Virginia class submarines, and these subs will be the best subs that America will field for the foreseeable future.. So, I don't see US sharing Virginia class submarine technology with Australia..

Sorry confused Virginia class with an SSBN..
Still considering that these subs secure an SSBN on deterrence patrol, they are still too important a strategic asset..

 

[Pugilist]

France recalls its ambassadors to Australia and United States amid submarine fury

The unprecedented move follows the Morrison government’s decision to tear up a $90 billion submarine contract.

www.theage.com.au

The French are one of the best in the world in throwing a sulk - lol.

Wonderful strategic opportunity for India to seek a deeper tie up and extract favourable terms for Indian SSN (if needed) and P75l.

French sub industry will be reeling in the long term after Australian order cancellation (reports in Australia stating Australia’s French subs costs blowout was going to be around AUD$90-100 billion) which if correct will mean the French have lost an absolutely massive defence contract.

French will need another friendly nation to fill some of the void in its forward order book. As India has excellent diplomatic, leadership and industry level relationships, a lot of crucial groundwork is in place.

Up to India now how it plays this.

 

[asianobserve]

Sorry confused Virginia class with an SSBN..
Still considering that these subs secure an SSBN on deterrence patrol, they are still too important a strategic asset..

Virginias are SSNs with additional littoral special forces insertion and land attack capabilities.

Most likely the Aussies will get Astute class since the Americans cannot even make enough Virginias for their needs.

 

[asianobserve]

B-21s would be important. But, they are not even close to how important the Virginia class submarine is to the US. The credibility of US second strike capability is almost completely dependent on the Virginia class submarines, and these subs will be the best subs that America will field for the foreseeable future.. So, I don't see US sharing Virginia class submarine technology with Australia..

US SSNs are not designed to protect US SSBNs. US SSNs are primarily designed to hunt enemy SSBNs while US SSBNs are designed to hide alone and tgen launch their oayloads when called upon to do so.

 

[Pugilist]

Around November 2020, Chinese embassy in Canberra handed the Australian Government a diplomatic dossier with a list of 14 grievances.

The Chinese than leaked the dossier to Australian media (presumably to humiliate Australia) - media link below.

The grievances were in response to Australia leading the global charge earlier last year demanding a probe into the origins of COVID.

The Chinese embassy then told the Australian Government that if Australia backed off the 14 issues, relations between the two countries would improve - essentially a threat then a demand that Australia back off against China in all 14 areas.

The demands are extraordinary and no self respecting nation would ever think of making such demands from another sovereign nation. Similarly no self respecting sovereign nation (expect Pakistan) would ever accede to such demands.

Here is the list of 14 grievances:

1. Chinese investment in Australia blocked
2. Huawei banned from building 5G network
3. Introduction of foreign investment legislation
4. Politicisation of normal exchanges
5. Calling for an independent COVID probe
6. Australia’s ‘interference’ over Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan
7. South China Sea statement to the United Nations
8. Supporting US anti-China campaign
9. Threats to ‘torpedo’ Victoria’s Belt and Road deal
10. Funding anti-China think tank
11. Seizure of Chinese journalist’s property
12. Accusing China of cyber attacks
13. Australian MPs racist condemning CCP and Chinese people
14. Unfriendly media coverage

China grossly underestimated Australia, thinking like New Zealand, it would capitulate.

In return Australia has dug its heels in and has fought back. China/ Australia relations has gone south since - Chinese Government Ministers and senior officials to this day refuse to take calls from their Australian counterparts.

Australia has now (after AUKUS) finally formally rejected its previous doctrine of “not having to choose between the US and China” to a new doctrine of “forever defence partnership with US and UK“ to combat China’s rise and aggression.

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

A deliberately leaked Chinese government document has laid out 14 disputes aimed at pressuring the Morrison government to reverse Australia’s position on key policies.

www.smh.com.au

 

[The Shrike]

Where are our resident French posters, I was looking forward to posting this meme ? First loosing the Swiss fighter contest to F-35 and now this!