Quadrilateral security dialogue (QUAD) - Resurrected!! News and Updates

Tshering22

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Let's see

Not happening. I really am beginning to have doubts about the QUAD. If this is how Biden-Harris continue to simp with Emperor Xi, we need to activate the French trump card. France may not be able to take on China's might but it can definitely convince the EU to boycott China economically & exert economic pressure.

The new Japanese PM Kishida is not impressed with the new administration. He's an old-timer and has seen the degradation of the US from Obama to now. Abe was smart to veer Japanese foreign policy from USA-Only and focus on regional powers like us and Australians for a concerted pressure circle around China and Kishida is an Abe-man.

CCP is an existential threat for Japan so they will understand our position. Given the weakening US leadership, the Japanese can be convinced to take a more independent stand.

We are also not doing much to bring Vietnam into either of these forums. They are right now the most important regional players in ASEAN when it comes to the CCP. They are located right across the economic heartland of the CCP i.e., Pearl River Delta. While we can expect that area to be heavily guarded, putting the PRD within Vietnam's striking range can send jitters to the Emperor.

Besides, Vietnam is the only country with the balls to be able to do something in case Xinnie the Poop gets naughty.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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Suppa Pawwa Amrika:

In 2021, the "combat capability" of all types of fighters, except for the A-10 attack aircraft of the US armed forces, decreased. This indicator is the aircraft's ability to perform one of its main tasks. For example, the F-16 fighter is designed to conduct air combat, strike at ground targets or suppress enemy air defense systems. To meet the requirements of the US Air Force, aircraft must have a readiness rate of 75-80%.

The layout for fighters (the indicator of combat effectiveness is taken into account as a percentage for the period of financial 2020-2021):

1️⃣ F-35A fighter: decreased from 76.07% to 68.8%. Reason: The F-35 had to go through the first engine overhaul. Due to a lack of power plants over the past year, 40 F-35A operations have been suspended. Forecast - the trend may continue over the next few years. However, the F-35A's combat capability remained higher than in 2019 (61.6%). Due to high operating costs, the Air Force has reduced purchases of new F-35A until they are upgraded to the Block 4 version;

2️⃣ F-15E fighter: decreased from 69.21% to 66.24%. The trend continued. In the 2019 financial year, the figure for this type of aircraft was 71.29%;

3️⃣ F-15C fighter: decreased from 71.93% to 69.48%. The F-15C of the US Air Force is in operation beyond its planned service life, therefore the aircraft is facing operational constraints and a shortage of spare parts from “disappearing suppliers”;

4️⃣ F-15D fighter: reduction from 70.52% to 68.56%;
5️⃣ F-16C fighter: reduction from 73.9% to 71.53%;
F-16D fighter: decreased from 72.11% to 69.32%. F-16C / D aircraft hit over 70% in fiscal 2019;

6️⃣ F-22 fighter: The rate in 2021 was 50.81%, reflecting the relatively small size of the fleet and numerous challenges. The poor performance of the F-22 is associated with maintenance problems, as well as serious damage to 10% of the aircraft fleet by Hurricane Michael in 2018;

7️⃣ A-10 attack aircraft: growth from 71.2% to 72.54% due to the ongoing refurbishment program. The A-10 is easy to maintain, along with other fighters, and has a small number of sensor systems.

Unrelated, but too good to pass:

1637823004039.png


1637823065266.png


1637823093873.png


Thugs break into a store, steal every single thing and leave. Because in The Greatest Country in the World, Theft is legal. The American Dream :pound:
 

Covfefe

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Suppa Pawwa Amrika:

In 2021, the "combat capability" of all types of fighters, except for the A-10 attack aircraft of the US armed forces, decreased. This indicator is the aircraft's ability to perform one of its main tasks. For example, the F-16 fighter is designed to conduct air combat, strike at ground targets or suppress enemy air defense systems. To meet the requirements of the US Air Force, aircraft must have a readiness rate of 75-80%.

The layout for fighters (the indicator of combat effectiveness is taken into account as a percentage for the period of financial 2020-2021):

1️⃣ F-35A fighter: decreased from 76.07% to 68.8%. Reason: The F-35 had to go through the first engine overhaul. Due to a lack of power plants over the past year, 40 F-35A operations have been suspended. Forecast - the trend may continue over the next few years. However, the F-35A's combat capability remained higher than in 2019 (61.6%). Due to high operating costs, the Air Force has reduced purchases of new F-35A until they are upgraded to the Block 4 version;

2️⃣ F-15E fighter: decreased from 69.21% to 66.24%. The trend continued. In the 2019 financial year, the figure for this type of aircraft was 71.29%;

3️⃣ F-15C fighter: decreased from 71.93% to 69.48%. The F-15C of the US Air Force is in operation beyond its planned service life, therefore the aircraft is facing operational constraints and a shortage of spare parts from “disappearing suppliers”;

4️⃣ F-15D fighter: reduction from 70.52% to 68.56%;
5️⃣ F-16C fighter: reduction from 73.9% to 71.53%;
F-16D fighter: decreased from 72.11% to 69.32%. F-16C / D aircraft hit over 70% in fiscal 2019;

6️⃣ F-22 fighter: The rate in 2021 was 50.81%, reflecting the relatively small size of the fleet and numerous challenges. The poor performance of the F-22 is associated with maintenance problems, as well as serious damage to 10% of the aircraft fleet by Hurricane Michael in 2018;

7️⃣ A-10 attack aircraft: growth from 71.2% to 72.54% due to the ongoing refurbishment program. The A-10 is easy to maintain, along with other fighters, and has a small number of sensor systems.

Unrelated, but too good to pass:

View attachment 121578

View attachment 121579

View attachment 121580

Thugs break into a store, steal every single thing and leave. Because in The Greatest Country in the World, Theft is legal. The American Dream :pound:
Could also be one of their antiques to defend their ever increasing defense budget.
 

asianobserve

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QUAD nearly died due to AUKUS.

Expectations were high for Asia (Japan & India) with QUAD negotiations making progress. But all hopes got dashed when a bolt from the blue struck that US and UK have struck a nuclear submarine deal behind everybody’s back to supply Australia 8 nuclear attack submarines. They believed that these will police the China Sea and Pacific Ocean and keep China under check.

It was not to be …….. During the negotiation of the QUAD agreement, the United States were working behind closed doors with Australia to provide these strong submarines. It was probably a good thing for Australia, even though it was not threatened in any way. It came as a surprise to India and Japan.

India had hoped that this agreement would make it possible to avoid two front wars with China and Pakistan. Again, it was not to be. China has greater influence over Pakistan than US. Hence the notion of QUAD has been pushed far down the American priority.

Japan has also been caught off guard. They depend 100% on American security. The rise of China threatens their security. The QUAD would have given them confidence in their safety.

Now what choices Japan and India have. Japan will abandon its pacifist constitution and build its armed forces against China's threat. It could take 20 years. For Indian choices are to escalate its defense budget, probably double it in the next 5-7 years and privatize making of a lot army, air force and navy hardware needs. Upgrading infrastructure in the Himalayas is a greater need today and must be accelerated within the next 3-5 years.

If Japan militarizes, and if India spends more money on defense, then the perception of the Chinese threat will probably be reversed. China will come under pressure from AUKUS, Japan and India. Pakistan would be in no position to join China and threaten India.

I don't see any conflict between QUAD and AUKUS.

Australia and UK are closely aligned with the US than India. Hence AUKUS makes sense for them. India cannot commit to the same level of security arrangment with Americans as the Brits and Aussies.

Japan on the other hand is a touchy issue for the Americans to bring in to a security arrangment like AUKUS since for one, Japan's constitution gets in the way, and second, SoKor will throw more tantrums against America and will use Japan's inclusion as an excuse for closer relations with China.

But QUAD has not been deminished in any way. In fact a stronger AUKUS pact, with Australia strengthened, means QUAD's muscle as a whole is strengthened.
 

Hari Sud

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I don't see any conflict between QUAD and AUKUS.

Australia and UK are closely aligned with the US than India. Hence AUKUS makes sense for them. India cannot commit to the same level of security arrangment with Americans as the Brits and Aussies.

Japan on the other hand is a touchy issue for the Americans to bring in to a security arrangment like AUKUS since for one, Japan's constitution gets in the way, and second, SoKor will throw more tantrums against America and will use Japan's inclusion as an excuse for closer relations with China.

But QUAD has not been deminished in any way. In fact a stronger AUKUS pact, with Australia strengthened, means QUAD's muscle as a whole is strengthened.
‘Bad analysis of AUKUS formation and its intent. To intimidate China, Australia has geography problem with multi-island Indonesia in the middle. Australia has off and on relations with China. Sometimes, it is very friendly to China, other times almost fighting a war of words. A tiny population of Australia with three or four population centres (Australia with less than 30 million population base) will have tough time trying to support 6 to 8 nuclear submarines. Moreover India’s priority is indIan ocean. AUKUS priority is China sea and Pacific Ocean. These are two differing perspectives, hence US may feel comfortable with AUKUS but not India.
 

asianobserve

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‘Bad analysis of AUKUS formation and its intent. To intimidate China, Australia has geography problem with multi-island Indonesia in the middle. Australia has off and on relations with China. Sometimes, it is very friendly to China, other times almost fighting a war of words. A tiny population of Australia with three or four population centres (Australia with less than 30 million population base) will have tough time trying to support 6 to 8 nuclear submarines. Moreover India’s priority is indIan ocean. AUKUS priority is China sea and Pacific Ocean. These are two differing perspectives, hence US may feel comfortable with AUKUS but not India.
images (3).jpeg
 

Tshering22

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None of that changes the point, in fact it strengthens it, that the Russian economy is on shaky legs. Russia is struggling and if they wanted Ukraine they would easily get it.

No one is going to stop them ( or even can stop them). The US has lost its appetite for war. France is.....well France. Germany isn't a threat to anyone but their own citizens. So no one can stop them and Europe needs its fuel so who is stopping them?

They are stopping themselves because the strain it would cause will break their already struggling economy.

Ruble almost stopped existing after the Crimean occupation. Shelves were empty all over Russia and there was full on panic. They won't survive an attack on any of Nato and Non-Nato members like Ukraine simply due to it being too costly which won't be outweighed by any advantages and will choke the Russian economy.

If Amrika's Foreign Minister's words are anything to go by, they won't simply sit on the sidelines.
Ukraine is Europe's food basket, much like our Punjab. During Soviet times, over 70% of the food crops were grown here that not only fed Soviets, but were also exported. Ukraine has one of the most fertile lands in Europe with ideal summers to grow a ton of fruits, vegetables & cereal (winters are crappy, like -20). On top of that, Ukraine is sitting on a lot of strategic assets from the USSR era, that remains unused and Russia wants it back (Antonov, Yuzhnoye, Zorya-Mashproekt, Kharkov Morozov BP, etc.).

There is literally nothing left for the West to sanction Russia except oil & gas. If Uncle Sam did that, the Europeans would riot & start mass attacks all over their cities & there will be anarchy in the winter (European winters, mind you). Chances are that EU will diverge from American agenda if, Putin reaches out to France and assures them that the entire EU is safe from Russia & that they will stop on Ukrainian borders, on the condition that NATO doesn't expand.

And it would, IMO, be the smartest masterstroke Putin makes. France is hurt & pissed off at USA. Germany is nowhere in sight and even if it were, it is still a US overseas territory politically speaking. Macron right now holds the reins of Europe and if Putin convinces him, NATO's demise will commence. Russia's concerns here seem genuinely legitimate to me. USA has so far violated all their agreements that they signed under the sunset days of Boris Yeltsin of not expanding NATO.
___

As for our position, we should maintain credible autonomy & continue on this path. If Beijing Biden & Hangzhou Harris are true to their names, they will try to piss off PM Modi with unnecessary hindrances in future purchases (despite protests from Lockheed & Boeing, who would more than happily supply stuff for-profits), especially around any future potential heated stand-off. This will be done to put pressure to ensure that we stand on their side and against Russia.

I hope we are factoring in this possibility in the near future, especially after the S-400. There's a reason why Biden-Harris haven't made an official announcement yet about CAATSA on us, and knowing them, it is not something pleasant.
 
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US Secy Antony Blinken to visit Australia next week to attend QUAD Foreign Ministers meet
Anurag Roushan

3-4 minutes


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Australia from February 9 to 12 to attend the fourth QUAD Foreign Ministers Meeting, hosted by Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne. According to a press release by the US State Department, Blinken will also meet with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and other senior officials to discuss a wide range of bilateral and global issues.


ever since Blinken learned to lie without blinking.. we need to be cautious on USA with it in the QUAD.
 

ezsasa

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there was an old post of mine implying that if there is a choice between going after china or russia, muricans would choose russia because russians as an enemy is an idea muricans are comfortable with and have decades of expertise on, but not china.

looks like this is what is happening.
 

WARREN SS

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there was an old post of mine implying that if there is a choice between going after china or russia, muricans would choose russia because russians as an enemy is an idea muricans are comfortable with and have decades of expertise on, but not china.

looks like this is what is happening.
China is Civilizational nation

With a Authoritarian capitalist model

Han Chinese are comfortable with Authoritarian regime
Since it's inception

Before it was monarchy and now Under CCP

Containing China is out of the hands of Western nations

That loves there own self interest over others
 

Tshering22

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there was an old post of mine implying that if there is a choice between going after china or russia, muricans would choose russia because russians as an enemy is an idea muricans are comfortable with and have decades of expertise on, but not china.

looks like this is what is happening.
It is a good theory. But it will be difficult to convince Putin at least, that the West wants him on their side.
He has no love for China but knows that both sides are trying to cripple Russia. The West wants Russian resources, while destroying their military-industrial complex, while the CCP wants to annex the entire Siberia.

If we go by anything, the latest QUAD FM Summit was quite a spectacle. I never thought EAM Jaishankar would be flipping the bird on discussion moderators when it came to Ukrainian Crisis. While he was his usual polite self, his body language was "fuck you all, don't drag Russia-Ukraine into the Indo-Pacific".

I liked this new side of his.😈 :laugh:
 

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