Quadrilateral security dialogue (QUAD) - Resurrected!! News and Updates

asianobserve

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Boeing to Set up Factory in Australia to Assemble 'Loyal Wingman' Airpower Teaming Drones
The announcement comes days after Australia abrogated a deal with France to build conventionally-powered submarines opting instead to build nuclear-powered submarines in partnership with the U.S. and the U.K.
 

Blank

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Although going 'Ekla chalo' might seem reasonable, there is also the thing that no nation has become superpower (or atleast in a sustainable manner) by going alone. Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, China all going alone in being a superpower. Yet against USAs alliance structure, they face immense pressure no matter how powerful they are...

US itself says it's allies are one of it's most powerful weapons. If we want to become powerful someday, we will need to do something about it. (because we will inevitably collide with the US). China tried to counter it by trying to drive a wedge between allies. It worked a bit in Europe, US just made new allies or straight up can still abandon them - They are that dependent on US. They being western, will always believe in US more then any non-western nation.

But then again, India is a status-quo power while China is a revisionist power. So we might not face that much resistance.
 

asianobserve

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Although going 'Ekla chalo' might seem reasonable, there is also the thing that no nation has become superpower (or atleast in a sustainable manner) by going alone. Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, China all going alone in being a superpower. Yet against USAs alliance structure, they face immense pressure no matter how powerful they are...

US itself says it's allies are one of it's most powerful weapons. If we want to become powerful someday, we will need to do something about it. (because we will inevitably collide with the US). China tried to counter it by trying to drive a wedge between allies. It worked a bit in Europe, US just made new allies or straight up can still abandon them - They are that dependent on US. They being western, will always believe in US more then any non-western nation.

But then again, India is a status-quo power while China is a revisionist power. So we might not face that much resistance.

Right in the head! Cooperation is always better than being singularly exceptional. This is true in small organizations to countries.
 

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France and Germany may come closer to Russia in coming decades. There may be two groups within EU, the inner circle EU will be headed by France and Germany. Why does NATO exists? Its exists only to check Russia's advances in Europe. What if Core EU members mends ties with Russia?

UK came out of the EU and with AUKUS, the Trio literally part of British Crown (US being the former British colony) has re-alligned themselves.

Germany and France have called for a new EU strategy of closer engagement with Russia, but other EU members are opposing this idea. The Franco-German bonhomie with Russia will further split EU into two camps. Germany is already having the Russian Nordstream gas pipeline. Putin once jokingly told to Macron that let Russia protect Europe, just like NATO.
Chinkis here in the Philippines are mostly drug smugglers, smugglers of all other goods, law violators, fond of bribing government officials, tax evaders, you name it. I've never seen a greedier group of people.
Two things here :
1. For all the talk of autonomous EU military capability by Germany or France.. whenever snubbed by the US, no major EU power plans to spend serious money into developing an EU military. Independent EU military capability and the doctrine to deploy it from various national militaries is not there..

2. Germany is going ahead with Nordstream 2 pipeline inspite of US opposition. Nordstream 2 is a good deal for Germany, even though it reduces the bargaining position of eastern European nations..Nordstream 2 will also increase German dependence on Russian gas..increasing Russian leverage.. But, Germany never has had to worry about Russian military coercion, because, there are eastern European nations between Germany and Russia, which would have to fall first.. But, since these eastern European nations are part of NATO, Germany is pretty sure that US will protect them.. But, what if US seriously thins its deployment in Eastern Europe and Germany..? Germany will then, start taking defence seriously.. Even in the current elections, defence is not a major topic in Germany..
 
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Ekla Cholo

AUKUS confirms that India stands alone- StratNews Global

In issues of WAR, Ekla chalo is what India wants too.. That's what Jaishankar has been saying all along, that India does not seek blocks or treaty allies.. So, why the heartburn?? Did US abandon India, after India became a treaty ally ?
 
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nWo 4 Life

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Two things here :
1. For all the talk of autonomous EU military capability by Germany or France.. whenever snubbed by the US, no major EU power plans to spend serious money into developing an EU military. Independent EU military capability and the doctrine to deploy it from various national militaries is not there..

2. Germany is going ahead with Nordstream 2 pipeline inspite of US opposition. Nordstream 2 is a good deal for Germany, even though it reduces the bargaining position of eastern European nations..Nordstream 2 will also increase German dependence on Russian gas..increasing Russian leverage.. But, Germany never has had to worry about Russian military coercion, because, there are eastern European nations between Germany and Russia, which would have to fall first.. But, since these eastern European nations are part of NATO, Germany is pretty sure that US will protect them.. But, what if US seriously thins its deployment in Eastern Europe and Germany..? Germany will then, start taking defence seriously.. Even in the current elections, defence is not a major topic..
Regarding the first point, somewhere around the Brexit period, some countries did float ideas around of forming an EU Army. Macron even expressed support in some manner, if I remember correctly.

But the idea came off as very odious and was immediately trashed in the UK. The common people were quite outraged at it in fact. And the people advocating for leaving the EU made hay with this issue.

Nigel Farage actually said, "This bloated, wasteful, corrupt institution which hasn't had its own accounts audited for decades wants our money and men to form a Continental EU Army. Even as they claim it's for defense, they will certainly use this Army to bully and invade and beat down the country which refuses to take X number of refugees or doesn't fly a LGBTQ flag outside their embassy or whose resources they need to steal.

And now we have the French PM Emmanuel Macron calling for this EU Army to be formed. It seems we have found our modern-day Napoleon!"

It actually helped in popularizing Brexit. So, it might be a while before the EU attempts to even raise this again.

Secondly, even if US does seem to roll back on its NATO agreements, it would be difficult for Germany of all countries to build back their armies again.

This dumb attitude of theirs has been in place since the end of World War 2. Some historians call it "tiredness". They have spent so much time convincing themselves that they are monsters and that they should feel guilty and do everything they can to not repeat another Hitler, that they have willingly accepted to emasculate themselves, whether in the area of Defence, social issues or immigration.

This attitude has been drilled in all the Axis Powers after they lost WW2. They must continually feel sorry about "war crimes" while ensuring that they remain chained to America and do not try to surpass it militarily.
 

Nationalist Manasvi Papa

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Regarding the first point, somewhere around the Brexit period, some countries did float ideas around of forming an EU Army. Macron even expressed support in some manner, if I remember correctly.

But the idea came off as very odious and was immediately trashed in the UK. The common people were quite outraged at it in fact. And the people advocating for leaving the EU made hay with this issue.

Nigel Farage actually said, "This bloated, wasteful, corrupt institution which hasn't had its own accounts audited for decades wants our money and men to form a Continental EU Army. Even as they claim it's for defense, they will certainly use this Army to bully and invade and beat down the country which refuses to take X number of refugees or doesn't fly a LGBTQ flag outside their embassy or whose resources they need to steal.

And now we have the French PM Emmanuel Macron calling for this EU Army to be formed. It seems we have found our modern-day Napoleon!"

It actually helped in popularizing Brexit. So, it might be a while before the EU attempts to even raise this again.

Secondly, even if US does seem to roll back on its NATO agreements, it would be difficult for Germany of all countries to build back their armies again.

This dumb attitude of theirs has been in place since the end of World War 2. Some historians call it "tiredness". They have spent so much time convincing themselves that they are monsters and that they should feel guilty and do everything they can to not repeat another Hitler, that they have willingly accepted to emasculate themselves, whether in the area of Defence, social issues or immigration.

This attitude has been drilled in all the Axis Powers after they lost WW2. They must continually feel sorry about "war crimes" while ensuring that they remain chained to America and do not try to surpass it militarily.
well said
 

Aniruddha Mulay

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One hopes so, but he is once of the well informed journalists in the area. And it would be par for the course from our defence decision makers - our conventional sub fleet has already been effed up, with our sub fleet expected to dwindle down to the same/similar number as the Paxis.
At the end of the day having a sizeable fleet of nuke subs will require a commitment to spend serious amounts of money over decades, the Aussies are showing this commitment (easily $50B+) in the face of the Chinese challenge, while we are simply not. The consequence will be that in a few decades time they will have more SSNs ("at least 8" per the statement, making it the 4th largest SSN fleet) than IN and consequently the projection power in IOR.
It might so happen that if Project 75I costs seems unfeasible and that the price margin between costs of an SSK and SSN are far too narrow to even procure a SSK, India might end up building 12 Project 75A SSN instead of the currently planned 6.

Given the price escalation of 12 SMX Ocean SSK, I am a bit worried that we might face the same issue if SMX 3.0 gets selected. In such a case, acquiring 12 SSN instead of 6 SSK + 6 SSN makes sense.

No one handles diplomacy like India however, Russian consultancy to build SSBN and French consultancy to possibly build SSN.
 

The Shrike

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[I have not watched the video yet, but] I take any "Ekla chalo re" rhetoric as complete BS in reality, we need allies for sure to face any major military flareup:
1) Most of our military equipment is foreign origin and needs constant support, and this is not going to change for a very long time.
2) Sadly any real confrontation will reveal many gaps in our mil capability (caused due to poor funding and lack of recent actual fighting experience). And our reaction will be "emergency" purchases from our friendly countries, which wether we like it or not will include the US and UK amongst others.
 

Tshering22

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After getting snubbed by Australia, now France faces one more humiliation, Switzerland has decided to cancel French Rafales and instead buy F-35s from the US.

F-35s for Switzerland? What the heck are they going to do? Drop iPods preloaded with yodelling tracks on the Alps?

I am surprised at this news; a few years back the Swiss were debating whether to even consider buying the Gripen-E fighter jet which is much, much cheaper and most relevant to their requirements. see this.
 

Tshering22

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Remember seeing a "Wolfpack" alert a few days ago stating that Japan is going to increase it’s defence budget by 50%, with out any source of course. Now I see this (article is paywalled, I don't have access) - it looks mostly flat for the next decade. 🤷‍♀️
If they do that, they will have to rename their armed forces to Imperial Japanese Armed Forces (Japan is still a constitutional empire) instead of the current pacifist-sounding 'self-defense' force. Japan already has a massive military budget for a country with no conventional military so to speak.
 

asianobserve

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Two things here :
1. For all the talk of autonomous EU military capability by Germany or France.. whenever snubbed by the US, no major EU power plans to spend serious money into developing an EU military. Independent EU military capability and the doctrine to deploy it from various national militaries is not there..

2. Germany is going ahead with Nordstream 2 pipeline inspite of US opposition. Nordstream 2 is a good deal for Germany, even though it reduces the bargaining position of eastern European nations..Nordstream 2 will also increase German dependence on Russian gas..increasing Russian leverage.. But, Germany never has had to worry about Russian military coercion, because, there are eastern European nations between Germany and Russia, which would have to fall first.. But, since these eastern European nations are part of NATO, Germany is pretty sure that US will protect them.. But, what if US seriously thins its deployment in Eastern Europe and Germany..? Germany will then, start taking defence seriously.. Even in the current elections, defence is not a major topic in Germany..
Two things will prevent an EU military ambition (mainly a French initiative) from becoming a reality:

1) There's no appetite for it among EU countries as they want NATO to be their main security guarantor.

Reason for most EU countries objection: Deep apprehension that France (and to some extent Germany) only look up to their national interest and will easily betray Baltic, Central and Eastern European EU members.

Most Baltic, Central and European EU members most threatened by Russia see the US as the most reliable military partner against Russia.

2) To most smaller EU members, the US represents the most effective counterbalance France and Germany within EU (ironic since the US is not an EU member). So these smaller EU countries do not want an EU military organization without the US in it.
 

Detective Pennington

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Two things will prevent an EU military ambition (mainly a French initiative) from becoming a reality:

1) There's no appetite for it among EU countries as they want NATO to be their main security guarantor.

Reason for most EU countries objection: Deep apprehension that France (and to some extent Germany) only look up to their national interest and will easily betray Baltic, Central and Eastern European EU members.

Most Baltic, Central and European EU members most threatened by Russia see the US as the most reliable military partner against Russia.

2) To most smaller EU members, the US represents the most effective counterbalance France and Germany within EU (ironic since the US is not an EU member). So these smaller EU countries do not want an EU military organization without the US in it.
This is ultimately a good thing also. An independent EU will eventually succumb to being economically dependent on China. This is why China wants EU to break free of US influence. Pro China EU will be worse than Pro-US EU.
 

asianobserve

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The 'Quad' is on the rise in Asia-Pacific:
Game theory has a prediction about its future

China remade itself into a giant economy, and more and more it enjoys the giant benefits that go with it: national confidence, diplomatic clout and military power.

Other big powers are paying attention. As China has shown new swagger in its dealings with the world, four big democracies — Australia, India, Japan and the United States — have formed a counterbalance.
The future of that "Quad" has tremendous significance, not just in the Indo-Pacific, but everywhere. Decision-makers, risk managers, investors, CEOs, and regular citizens increasingly are aware of rising stakes in a new, global balance of power.

The leaders of the world's biggest economies want to know what's next for the Quad.
A very complex computer algorithm may have delivered the answer.

On Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden will host Prime Ministers Narendra Modi of India, Scott Morrison of Australia and Yoshihide Suga of Japan at the White House for the first in-person Quad Summit.
They'll focus on "deepening our ties and advancing practical cooperation" on Covid-19, the climate crisis, technology, cyberspace and "a free and open Indo-Pacific," according to a White House statement.
As with just about every statement from the Quad, it makes no mention of China. But worries about China are at the root of the Quad. Since Xi Jinping became China’s leader in 2012, each of the four democracies has had serious run-ins with China on trade or territorial claims or both.

The "quadrilateral security dialogue" among Australia, India, Japan and the United States was once an informal, ongoing discussion between senior officials about naval cooperation. It's morphing into top-level strategic cooperation on tech, the global economy, security and the pandemic.

China objects to the Quad as an attempt to derail its rise as a global power.

"Forming closed and exclusive 'cliques' targeting other countries runs counter to the trend of the times and deviates from the expectation of regional countries," the country's foreign ministry said last week in response to the White House meeting. "It thus wins no support and is doomed to fail."

But even as it expresses confidence that the Quad will fail, Beijing takes aggressive actions that push the Quad countries closer together, according to several policy experts who spoke to CNBC.

"China is increasingly hemming itself in. Whatever objectives it might harbor for the Indo-Pacific, it's getting in its own way," said Ali Wyne, senior analyst for Global Macro at Eurasia Group.

To get a sense of what's next, CNBC in February came up with a question — What is the future of the Quad? — and ran it through an advanced game theory model. The effort generated specific predictions about the four Quad nations, China and other countries and territories with a stake in the Indo-Pacific.

Game theory is an obscure concept to most people. In short, it tries to apply science to strategy. Game theorists construct models of situations involving competition between groups or individuals.

They then apply computing power to predict how individuals will interact in the model and what outcomes will be.

The use of game theory in CNBC's Quad project comes as policymakers, investors and the risk-management industry are trying to get more quantitative rigor into their forecasts — in line with the rise of quantitative analysis across other sectors including trading and investing. Globally, algorithms are being relied upon to do more and more.

But game theory is not magic. It has limitations, which you can read more about here. Significantly, at least two of the policy analysts who helped build the model used for this report do not agree with some of the predictions it made.

But in the world of game theory, at least, the model implemented for this report is a well-regarded one. The methods developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, of New York University and the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, were used by the CIA on more than 1,200 projects in the 1980s.

According to a declassified CIA report published by Yale University Press in 1995, Bueno de Mesquita's former firm Policon had a 90% accuracy rate on predictions it made for the agency and generated greater detail than traditional analysis. Bueno de Mesquita claims a higher accuracy rate on projects undertaken for Fortune 500 clients since then.

Jonathan Grady, principal of start-up consulting firm The Canary Group and a protégé of Bueno de Mesquita, built the game theory model for this report. It was designed specifically to predict the Quad nations' future together in maritime security.

In consultation with Bueno de Mesquita, Grady gathered input from 37 policy experts and former government officials. You can see a list of them here.

The model built for this report included almost 300 individual "players" — senior government officials and national institutions — spread among the Quad nations, China and 10 other countries and territories. CNBC's Quad project is the largest computation ever run by the Bueno de Mesquita model in its history — more complex than any projects undertaken for the CIA or corporate clients.

What follow are the model's predictions, and what political analysts say about them.

The big Quad predictions

Three major forecasts covering roughly the next two years came out of the model, which was designed to focus on security and maritime issues:
  1. Leaders in Australia, India, Japan and the United States will become much more focused on Indo-Pacific security, and the countries will act in an increasingly coordinated way. However, they won't take any actions as a group that are more aggressive than they take already. For instance, they will not carry out naval exercises as a group within the South China Sea, which China claims as its own.
  2. Xi will pressure each of the Quad leaders separately in an effort to create a wedge between them, but none will respond to him. Some senior leaders in China, including within the military, will begin to favor a more conciliatory approach toward the Quad. But they'll run into hard nationalists at the top of the Chinese Communist Party. China will make no serious concessions to the Quad on its maritime claims.
  3. Other countries will align with the Quad or come close to its position on security, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, France and South Korea. That could come in the form of joining naval exercises with some or all of the Quad countries, or openly supporting the group's security-related positions. Other countries, such as Vietnam, will edge closer to the Quad than they are now.
 

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