Quadrilateral security dialogue (QUAD) - Resurrected!! News and Updates

HitmanBlood

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I would like to put things in perspective.
Some statements have been made that Australia will become the next Asian Superpower in the league of China and India. And the US and its allies in Asia will dominate the whole of Asia.

Let's take a look at Australia.
It is a very big country of continental size. And has enormous natural resources.

But it is sparsely populated. Has only about 25 million people. Our UP state alone has almost 3 to 4 times that population.And population does matter. After all the GDP is the sum of economic output of all the people in a country. That's putting it very simple.

Australia is almost 8000 km from India. Taking it as an yardstick. The fact is it is thousands of kilometres from most countries of Asia.

The majority of the population of Asia are non Caucasian. Even if one considers Russia as an Asian power, the number of white Russians in its Asian part is probably less than 20 million people.

Europe is a different matter as most of them are Caucasians. But the Asian countries will never accept an Caucasian white country lording over them. The United States despite being an white Caucasian country has enormous influence in Asia. True. But its GDP is around 20 trillion dollars. And it has enormous scientific resources. For Australia to match the US in output it will take several decades of high growth.

Also the combined GDP of China, Japan, India and Indonesia alone would be close to US GDP figures. So the economic center of gravity in Asia is not favouring Australia.

Rather than Australia if the US had plans to turn Indonesia into another Japan, that would affect us and the rest of Asia profoundly. Indonesia is an big Asian non Caucasian country.

Australia will get stronger, no doubt but India will not feel any tremors.
We are already one of the fastest growing economies in the world and our GDP will only increase. Both India and Australia will chart their own paths and need not be in conflict.

And don't forget. Our military is already the 4th largest and strongest in the world.
We have a minimum of a decade lead over Australia in the strategic nuclear arena presently.



Very informative post on GDP.

However my analysis was mostly focused on military technology not GDP. The advanced technologies that Australia could receive from US will definitely give them an edge over other Asian countries, especially their Navy.
 

jackprince

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One doubt that irks me.. Assuming the SSNs patrol along with Indian SSBNs to set up a defensive perimeter during a deterrence patrol.. And if Russia has installed some kind of locator on the Akula SSNs that it has leased India., then India will end up giving up the approximate location of our SSBNs, which would prove to be a disaster in war time..
Not so easy. Any locator that might emit any signal would be caught by our own sensors of our other assets. You have to understand that subs operate in a quiet space and any kind of anomaly in electro-magnatic, sonic or radio would be easily detectable by the closest friendly asset. So Russia wont be stupid enough to do something like that.
 

Suhaldev

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Where are our resident French posters, I was looking forward to posting this meme ๐Ÿ˜? First loosing the Swiss fighter contest to F-35 and now this!
View attachment 110640

hope this post is in light hearted mood as France has stood by us against USA nuclear test sanctions and vocal about our concerns from past 3 4 decades.
 

ezsasa

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I hope this post is in light hearted mood as France has stood by us against USA nuclear test sanctions and vocal about our concerns from past 3 4 decades.
there is a old saying, never take sides in a loverโ€™s spat. few months later, theyโ€™ll reconcile and you will be left looking like an idiot.
 

ezsasa

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Itโ€™s a good thing these opinions are being put on record. Decades later, we will get to say โ€œI told you soโ€.
=======
Glad India led by PM has withheld recognition to Taliban regime. Here's why it poses a threat to the Indic civilisation.

 

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there is a old saying, never take sides in a loverโ€™s spat. few months later, theyโ€™ll reconcile and you will be left looking like an idiot.
AS P 75 I is delayed what we should do is use the opportunity to negotiate with France, another 3 more advanced scorpene class submarines with good ToT..
 

jackprince

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Now this is getting ridiculous. Honestly the french guys are overreacting. They should atleast understand no way Aus was going to to hand them over the deal after convincing the yanks to get their top of the line tech and that too SSN tech. As the fog on the deal gets clearer it was Australia who started the discussion not USA. Why they are mostly pissedoff on Yanks rather than Ausssies is best known to them
Do you think it is this deal that irked French?

No. It is complete disregard shown to them by these 3 nations that infuriated the French. The moves began in March,2021 and the French was kept in dark throughout.

Yes, the loss of deal does hurt, but not as much as the loss of face. France has an important role to play in international arena as the military arm of EU since Germany is effectively the housewife who won't venture out. By sidelining France in this deal, AUKUS has given the middle finger to the whole of EU and especially to France. Recalling of ambassadors is a move to show France how angry they have become and to see, how AUKUS tries to woo France to measure the seriousness of diplomatic relations.

UK should be worried more than USA and Australia, though. I think they are already in overdrive trying to mend with France and that is why ambassador from UK has not been recalled.
 

ezsasa

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Do you think it is this deal that irked French?

No. It is complete disregard shown to them by these 3 nations that infuriated the French. The moves began in March,2021 and the French was kept in dark throughout.

Yes, the loss of deal does hurt, but not as much as the loss of face. France has an important role to play in international arena as the military arm of EU since Germany is effectively the housewife who won't venture out. By sidelining France in this deal, AUKUS has given the middle finger to the whole of EU and especially to France. Recalling of ambassadors is a move to show France how angry they have become and to see, how AUKUS tries to woo France to measure the seriousness of diplomatic relations.

UK should be worried more than USA and Australia, though. I think they are already in overdrive trying to mend with France and that is why ambassador from UK has not been recalled.
yup, they are more pissed out about being kept in the dark. Letโ€™s just hope muricans compensate this insult with something noteworthy in favour of France.

=======

From a high-level FR diplo: TIMELINE OF FR/AUS contacts:
FR-AUS contacts timeline (FR-US timeline below)

Fall 2020/Spring 2021 - discussions with Australians about timing and price - at no point was it raised that Australia was thinking about shifting to nuclear-propelled.
1/5

 

ezsasa

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From the French debates about this submarines issue, apparently France has 8000 troops in indo Pacific somewhere. Anyone knows where are they located?
 

JBH22

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Maharaj samudragupt

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Do you think it is this deal that irked French?

No. It is complete disregard shown to them by these 3 nations that infuriated the French. The moves began in March,2021 and the French was kept in dark throughout.

Yes, the loss of deal does hurt, but not as much as the loss of face. France has an important role to play in international arena as the military arm of EU since Germany is effectively the housewife who won't venture out. By sidelining France in this deal, AUKUS has given the middle finger to the whole of EU and especially to France. Recalling of ambassadors is a move to show France how angry they have become and to see, how AUKUS tries to woo France to measure the seriousness of diplomatic relations.

UK should be worried more than USA and Australia, though. I think they are already in overdrive trying to mend with France and that is why ambassador from UK has not been recalled.
Germany is lucky to have a French husband ,I agree
 

Cheran

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So bada gora saheb has outsourced dadagiri of Indian ocean to chotta gora saheb.

By late 2030/early 2040s, CCP was looking at having a major presence here, that they will have but with this AUS will be a major player.

I recall some reports wherein our navy ships were trailed by AUS subs & another incident wherein AUS navy ship got in the way of our's leading to an evasive action from our side. (Cannot find the source now). But this is in a past era.

Hope we have our things ready in the next 25 or 30 years.

CCP can suck a lemon, this is what happens when you aggressively antagonize others, among other things.
 
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Knowitall

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Really interesting read.

Point no 7) French are pissed but not just for sub contact but the way they where ignored in Asia by Americans. Before NATO and WW2 there was a rivalry between UK and France. This still continues to this day but in friendly manner. Because of this US always made sure to treat France and UK equally as possible. This is after a very long time France is feeling left out and that too in the most important region in the world.

Point no 6) I agree other countries too will demand similar tech. especially countries in EU and long time US allies like Japan will definitely demand similar tech. It will be difficult for US to say no. This could make many allies unhappy.

Australia has issues with China but it's not in any immediate danger from China. Australia would be last country in Asia Pacific region were China might think about military invasion.
The country that is at immediate risk is Taiwan. There is no military tech transfer or any alliance being made with them. Philippines, Japan and India are also at risk. Even S Korea is at risk from Chinese dog Kim Jong. America isn't doing any favours to them.

Australia represents a country of Anglo-Saxons in Asian hemisphere. They also represent a European civilization in Asia. With increasing growth of Asian countries like Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Vietnam and India estern influence is increasing and Australia the flag bearer of western civilization in Asia Pacific has become a second rate power. Infact recently Australia has become almost irrelevant in Asia Pacific region. Even in QUAD Australia is the weakest link.

Now other powerful Anglo-Saxon countries have come to help their cousin Australia. The goal is not just to contain China. They don't need Australian land for missile installation or submarine ports. They already have Diago Garcia, Guam and British Virgin Islands. They have permanent military bases in Japan, S Korea and Philippines.

So what kind of help they are providing?

There is word in Punjabi "Chodhary" a strong powerful guy in a village who everyone fears and respects. China thinks they are Chodhary of Asia, Japan thinks with QUAD initiative they will become Chodhary of Asia, In India we think by being friendly with USA we will become Chodhary in Asia.

The Chodhary has been crowned. Its Australia.

Now one may say some SSNs and CMs won't make them Choudhary but my argument is you also don't need an alliance to sell SSNs and CMs. This AUKUS is much more than that. Under this alliance they will help Australia in every technological sector. They will give most advanced weapons and its subsystems to Australia. Just like when US once gave away their top secret tech to UK they will do the same with Australia. Subs, Miniature reactors, CMs, BMs, semiconductor tech, space rockets, jet engines, stealth, all will come to Australia. So in few decades with outside help Australia will outpace not just China but every country in Asia.

What happens then?

Australia will not be as humble as they are today. Just like US and UK one day Aussies drunk on power will start directing their will on Asian countries. Slowly America and UK may handover some defence installation to powerful Australia so they can focus their energy elsewhere.

Why do this?

USA is no longer as powerful as they once were. They are slowly loosing their grip on the world especially in Asia. How long USA can do petrols in SCS. How long can they defend Asian waters with increasingly powerful China. They needed a Choudhary to do their bidding. So who can they trust? Japan? No they fought war with them and memories of Perl Harbour are still there on American minds. India? They don't trust us at all. Philippines, Vietnam none qualify. So who is left. Australia. A white western country ruled by British Queen right next to Asia. Ofcourse they chose Australia. It's the most logical choice for them.

This AUKUS alliance is really a 3d chess move in Asia.


Fun fact

American Nuclear Subs use highly enriched uranium. If Australia gets the same tech they maybe regularly enriching their uranium at very high levels. I am not saying they will go nuclear but with subs+missiles+highly enriched uranium, it won't be that far fetched either.
Summed up beautifully.

People jumping with joy on the prospects of australia gaining cutting edge tech don't have the ability of looking 2 years into the future.

They think that Australian PM made some good remarks on India and posted pictures with dhokla so surely they are our best friend's. This naivety is what lead to our downfall in the last century.

US just ditched every single country in Asia including japan Taiwan and korea which are under direct chinese threat and instead went on to help australia which is miles away from China and has no border issues with them.

This is nothing but the reinforcement of a white country and an attempt to maintain the power if balance in Asia.

The people cheering for this alliance today would probably be crying a few years down the line when they conduct a FON drill near our islands like US did a few months back.

Nobody in Asia is happy about this because this is a blatant attempt at changing the power dynamics of Asia.

Japan has worked with the US for decades and understands what is happening and is already working towards a self sufficient MIC and security pacts with other Asian countries.

What could have been a simple arrangement bow has more complexities as Australia will soon start making it's own demands as they continue to gain more heft in the region.

Also expect australia to act as a proxy of UK in Asia thus muddling up things a bit more.
 

HawkisRight

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I hope this post is in light hearted mood as France has stood by us against USA nuclear test sanctions and vocal about our concerns from past 3 4 decades.
French have supplied fighters, submarines to Porkistan in the past... french have also stopped helping india in radar tech on orders from yanks at time of pokhran..Also interesting tidbit after pokhran Australia and Japan put one of toughest sanctions on India on behest of murica..
 

Knowitall

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Summed up beautifully.

People jumping with joy on the prospects of australia gaining cutting edge tech don't have the ability of looking 2 years into the future.

They think that Australian PM made some good remarks on India and posted pictures with dhokla so surely they are our best friend's. This naivety is what lead to our downfall in the last century.

US just ditched every single country in Asia including japan Taiwan and korea which are under direct chinese threat and instead went on to help australia which is miles away from China and has no border issues with them.

This is nothing but the reinforcement of a white country and an attempt to maintain the power if balance in Asia.

The people cheering for this alliance today would probably be crying a few years down the line when they conduct a FON drill near our islands like US did a few months back.

Nobody in Asia is happy about this because this is a blatant attempt at changing the power dynamics of Asia.

Japan has worked with the US for decades and understands what is happening and is already working towards a self sufficient MIC and security pacts with other Asian countries.

What could have been a simple arrangement bow has more complexities as Australia will soon start making it's own demands as they continue to gain more heft in the region.

Also expect australia to act as a proxy of UK in Asia thus muddling up things a bit more.
Will have to write a much detailed post on this.

A lot of people are wondering how Australia can turn into a major power in Asia with just nuclear submarines.

Everyone also needs to focus on the previous purchases and the upcoming technologies being given to Australia.

8 cutting edge nuclear attack submarine the best in Asia.

A dozen EA-18G Growlers 4 mc-55-a EW and ElNIT aircraft and 6 wedgetails AWACS gives australia the most capable EW capability in Asia. This potent combo will also have around 72 F-35 to further flesh their abilities out.


Then it's their airforce with an F-35 fleet top notch EW and AWACS which are going to be supplemented by loyal wingman drones a few years from now.

Similarly their navy is also on an expansion spree with new destroyers frigates and submarines.

US is also collaborating with them on hypersonic missiles and other cutting edge tech like NGP.

None of this will make them the top dog of Asia far from it but it will certainly let them and by extension the US UK and west to enforce their heft around Asia in a significant manner.
 

Pugilist

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That should give an idea of their force deployment. Main troop concentration in Reunion (1,650), Djibouti (1,700), New Caledonia (1,400), UAE (650) and Africa (1,400), but that is only around 7,000 troops.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_military_bases_of_France
Tahiti.

Beautiful place and even more beautiful women (a few of whom I know intimately from my university days ๐Ÿคซ)

F1367FF4-A57D-43F4-B42E-4ABD3B019E17.jpeg


French Indo Pacific bases to bring you back to reality:

CD6777EC-7EB2-455E-8BA1-AC3931F757D5.png
 

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I think, all the unprecedented action taken by France is to ensure that there is a cost to America if it wants to sabotage prospects of the French defence industry.. I guess even the vitriol directed towards the rafale deal from front organisations like Mediapart had American backing..
 

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