Quadrilateral security dialogue (QUAD) - Resurrected!! News and Updates

asianobserve

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AUKUS is the most visible proof that Afghanistan pullout has not damaged US power. Australia clearly signalled here that the US is still the reliable top dog in the Pacifc with an eye to China.

Furthermore, this surprise deal shows that the US let Afghanistan go to be able to focus on Asia and China.
 
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asianobserve

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And China is making it abundantly clear from how Chinese media reacted that AUKUS is a big deal.
 

asianobserve

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Chinese state media:



 
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Detective Pennington

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White people prospering is never a good thing for India or the world in general and there is centuries of oppression behind us to back what I say.

Nazis for Jews and whites for Indians is the same thing.
Nah, I feel like Turks and eastern Iranians were way worse in that regard. The British were arguably the most benign rulers apart from the creation of Pakistan.
 

Detective Pennington

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Nah brother.. India china cold war is going on for centuries...Read about chinese eunuch general Zheng He..In 14th century chinese promoted islam to undercut the Hinduism in today's Malaysia which was then a southern hindu empires vassal.. chinese tried in 14th century maritime silk route through srilanka to Africa in indian Ocean just like they r doing it today with string of pearls..chinks even meddled in kerala in 14th century guess what which kind of ideology runs in kerala today.. Singapore's name comes from Singh Pura now chinks rule dat place.. China has always seen India as enemy both countries didn't fight hot war just cause of tibet was buffer all these centuries..After tibet gone(thnx to chewtiya nehru) in 1950s u know what chinks did in 62...so come out this hindi chini bhai bhai
Exactly, the Chinese will always see themselves as superior to the dirty brown Indians.

That refurbished junk which you are talking about still scares the living daylights out of the West.
And don't for a second think that the Aussies will be getting those state of the art Virginias, they have way too much classified tech to give to an ally which was few years ago in bed with China.
At best the Aussies will be getting modernized LA class subs with a few inputs from the UK.
I thought Los Angeles was better than Virginia though?
 

ezsasa

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Really interesting read.

Point no 7) French are pissed but not just for sub contact but the way they where ignored in Asia by Americans. Before NATO and WW2 there was a rivalry between UK and France. This still continues to this day but in friendly manner. Because of this US always made sure to treat France and UK equally as possible. This is after a very long time France is feeling left out and that too in the most important region in the world.

Point no 6) I agree other countries too will demand similar tech. especially countries in EU and long time US allies like Japan will definitely demand similar tech. It will be difficult for US to say no. This could make many allies unhappy.

Australia has issues with China but it's not in any immediate danger from China. Australia would be last country in Asia Pacific region were China might think about military invasion.
The country that is at immediate risk is Taiwan. There is no military tech transfer or any alliance being made with them. Philippines, Japan and India are also at risk. Even S Korea is at risk from Chinese dog Kim Jong. America isn't doing any favours to them.

Australia represents a country of Anglo-Saxons in Asian hemisphere. They also represent a European civilization in Asia. With increasing growth of Asian countries like Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Vietnam and India estern influence is increasing and Australia the flag bearer of western civilization in Asia Pacific has become a second rate power. Infact recently Australia has become almost irrelevant in Asia Pacific region. Even in QUAD Australia is the weakest link.

Now other powerful Anglo-Saxon countries have come to help their cousin Australia. The goal is not just to contain China. They don't need Australian land for missile installation or submarine ports. They already have Diago Garcia, Guam and British Virgin Islands. They have permanent military bases in Japan, S Korea and Philippines.

So what kind of help they are providing?

There is word in Punjabi "Chodhary" a strong powerful guy in a village who everyone fears and respects. China thinks they are Chodhary of Asia, Japan thinks with QUAD initiative they will become Chodhary of Asia, In India we think by being friendly with USA we will become Chodhary in Asia.

The Chodhary has been crowned. Its Australia.

Now one may say some SSNs and CMs won't make them Choudhary but my argument is you also don't need an alliance to sell SSNs and CMs. This AUKUS is much more than that. Under this alliance they will help Australia in every technological sector. They will give most advanced weapons and its subsystems to Australia. Just like when US once gave away their top secret tech to UK they will do the same with Australia. Subs, Miniature reactors, CMs, BMs, semiconductor tech, space rockets, jet engines, stealth, all will come to Australia. So in few decades with outside help Australia will outpace not just China but every country in Asia.

What happens then?

Australia will not be as humble as they are today. Just like US and UK one day Aussies drunk on power will start directing their will on Asian countries. Slowly America and UK may handover some defence installation to powerful Australia so they can focus their energy elsewhere.

Why do this?

USA is no longer as powerful as they once were. They are slowly loosing their grip on the world especially in Asia. How long USA can do petrols in SCS. How long can they defend Asian waters with increasingly powerful China. They needed a Choudhary to do their bidding. So who can they trust? Japan? No they fought war with them and memories of Perl Harbour are still there on American minds. India? They don't trust us at all. Philippines, Vietnam none qualify. So who is left. Australia. A white western country ruled by British Queen right next to Asia. Ofcourse they chose Australia. It's the most logical choice for them.

This AUKUS alliance is really a 3d chess move in Asia.


Fun fact

American Nuclear Subs use highly enriched uranium. If Australia gets the same tech they maybe regularly enriching their uranium at very high levels. I am not saying they will go nuclear but with subs+missiles+highly enriched uranium, it won't be that far fetched either.
Things are going in the direction you indicated.
======
BIG NEWS: There's a force posture nugget in #AUSMIN presser.

Looks like new Australia-United States military bases are on the horizon, which will include a naval component for sustaining combined submarines and surface fleet.

 

werewolf

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France isn't happy about sub deal, good opportunity for us if we negotiate

The french are fuming. USA always screws them up in mega deals. The couldn't sell their already built up Mistral LPD to Russia due to ssanctions. Fortunately Egypt bailed them out.
We have a very good opportunity here but we will fuck it up just like we did the C17,M2K prodctn line etc.

India has also said no comments during EAM presser while japan and taiwan welcomed the alliance.
We don't want to upset the french and agreed on your point to negotiate a very good sub deal.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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France isn't happy about sub deal, good opportunity for us if we negotiate

The reason they are pissed is because the French know that this has got nothing to do with taking on China. It is simply a better business deal that Aussies got from the Americans - nuke subs for less per piece than the conventional diesel subs of France. The over priced French deal got dropped and the French are throwing a hissy fit. This AUKUS alliance BS is just a cover for transfer of nuclear technology citing grave threats from a common enemy.
I think it would be better if India and Japan get together and drop this QUAD nonsense; and just continue work as we currently do with the Japanese.
In any case, without becoming an upper middle income economy and a strong MIC, we will always be a second rate power and won’t be invited to the big table. If our goal is to play among the biggies, then get big and gain military technology self sufficiency, especially in strategic technologies. If this is not our goal, continue playing sub par games with a third rate power like Pakistan and be happy with it. Frankly, this is where I am confused what we want to be - a biggie playing on the world stage or just a middle power playing with Pakshitstan forever. If we just want to be a middle power, then don’t play games like the QUAD. We are not going to get anything out of it.
 

Okabe Rintarou

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The reason they are pissed is because the French know that this has got nothing to do with taking on China. It is simply a better business deal that Aussies got from the Americans - nuke subs for less per piece than the conventional diesel subs of France. The over priced French deal got dropped and the French are throwing a hissy fit. This AUKUS alliance BS is just a cover for transfer of nuclear technology citing grave threats from a common enemy.
I think it would be better if India and Japan get together and drop this QUAD nonsense; and just continue work as we currently do with the Japanese.
In any case, without becoming an upper middle income economy and a strong MIC, we will always be a second rate power and won’t be invited to the big table. If our goal is to play among the biggies, then get big and gain military technology self sufficiency, especially in strategic technologies. If this is not our goal, continue playing sub par games with a third rate power like Pakistan and be happy with it. Frankly, this is where I am confused what we want to be - a biggie playing on the world stage or just a middle power playing with Pakshitstan forever. If we just want to be a middle power, then don’t play games like the QUAD. We are not going to get anything out of it.
Nope.
1.) AUKUS is not just a convenient cover for a better submarine deal for the Australians. What will the Americans get out of this in your scenario? Look at posts above, they are talking of joint military bases, etc. Its just Uncle Sam forming the nucleus for a military alliance to counterbalance Chinese. Its continuation of the Deep State's pivot to Asia, nothing more.
2.) Understand what multi-alignment means. We don't need to "drop this QUAD nonsense" and "continue as usual with Japan". We can have a Quad, alongside a Japan-India-France trilateral, alongside India-ASEAN-Japan multilateral, alongside a Japan-India-USA trilateral and finally a Japan-India bilateral that is independent of all the rest of it. This is our grand strategy.
3.) Just because we rely on multi-alignment doesn't mean we are not a Great Power and rising Superpower. Heck, being able to have multi-alignment and more importantly, forging multi-alignment is the sign of a Great Power.
4.) Stop looking for transactional relations and instant gratification. Quad is not giving us a lot right now. But what did you expect? Quad is meant for posturing, first and foremost. There will be some economic structures centered around this that will emerge with time. Stop treating this as a zero-sum game. Is Quad harming us in any way?
5.) We should be able to continue onwards with indigenization and decreasing our reliance on outside tech independent of what alignment we are forming. If we stop or slow down indigenization just because there are better weapons Quad is selling to us, maybe we need to reform our systems, instead of letting go of the Quad.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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1. They are all speculation at this stage. The submarine deal is the main revenue earner for America’s MIC. if the true goal was to contain China, why not arm Taiwan or Japan with nuke subs.
2. What happened to Russia in all this? Russia would be threatened by this US move for sure. They don’t want American nuke subs in Asia. Now Russia is our strategic ally. How are they thinking about QUAD and these US moves?
3. Another of our strategic ally France also has been pissed off by the US. So two of our main strategic equipment suppliers have been pissed off by the US. And you expect these guys to ignore our participation in QUAD - yet another US move? No way, no how.
4. How is that Australia, until recently a very pro China country to the extent that they let Australian universities have confusion institutes everywhere and even supplied Uranium to China (in fact denying us the yellow cake) has suddenly become an anti-China country? Despite all the threatening rhetoric from China, what has Australia got to really lose? Nothing. They have no territorial disputes with the Chinese at all.
5. If this is all about naval basing rights, they can do so in Okinawa right under the Chinese noses or in Singapore, a strong US ally. Why Australia? White power?
6. if the US-India joint defense technology R&D project is anything to go by, we can be assured that the Quad is going to be a spectacular failure. If we cannot achieve much from the 2+2 dialog with the US, why are you under the illusion that the QUAD will achieve that? If we cannot even get the US to issue a CAATSA waiver, why are we in QUAD? Have we told the US, things like CAATSA waivers are a must to build trust?
7. Japan hardly says anything about the QUAD. No press releases, nothing. Japanese have dealt with the Americans long enough to know what works and what doesn’t.
8. If we want to be in every arrangement to show we are flexible, why not RCEP, why not still do the useless NAM? The reality is pandering to everyone would not be seen as a strength. It is just going to make all parties distrust us and not really invite us to the big table. This is already being seen where the US is now looking to Indonesia to setup vaccine exports for COVAX, after their request to us to export did not get a response. Now, this is a central feature of India’s participation in Quad and India is going in with a trust deficit/let down/hand wringing on this core QUAD idea. How exactly will this forum succeed then?
I don’t agree with the premise we get into all sorts of alliances. That type of diplomacy has disadvantages for us as we found out in Iran when we got kicked out of lucrative gas field projects. Now if we get too close to Iran to make up, you can kiss top of the line Israeli defense tech goodbye. so, there are real consequences from cozying up to everyone.
We need to figure out what we want to be, and then pick strategic allies that will help us get there. Or, if we truly want to be a great power capable of manipulating other countries, better become a solid defense exporter and a self sufficient military tech powerhouse. This is why the US is in so many organizations around the world. They don’t even care making a deal with the Taliban or pissing off NATO allies even, as they least bother about consequences from playing alliance games. We are nowhere near the power of the US, and playing alliance games like the US does will bite us in the back.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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India is in a difficult position for sure. Two of our major strategic equipment suppliers Russia and France are bound to be massively pissed off with Australia assuming the policeman of AP. This arrangement has very strategic implications for India and is a net negative for us. Ultimately this deal gives the US a much enlarged presence in Asia than the regional powers here would really want, even under the Chinese threat. It is not like the Japanese are happy with the Okinawa base or the Filipinos would prefer a US base. The US overall has a reputation problem in Asia - China or not. So, how will we respond to the US moves? Welcome the AUKUS and we are surely going to piss Russians and the French, and maybe even the Japanese. For all its quietness, Japanese really don’t want strategic American weapons in Asia. They have not welcomed the AUKUS for sure. Now, three of our allies - France, Russia, and Japan - are pissed. Now what?
 

Tridev123

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France isn't happy about sub deal, good opportunity for us if we negotiate

t
An preliminary analysis of the situation leads to one inescapable fact.
France has just lost an promising sale worth tens of billions of US dollars over the next decade and beyond.

If India were to approach France for help in the SSN programme, the French may be receptive. Many imponderables are there like
1. agreement on the price
2.extent of technology transfer
3.choice of shipyard in India(we should remember that Dassault was reluctant
to partner with the public sector HAL for the Rafale programme) etc.
So even though theoretically the prospect of French assistance has improved there will be many issues which will have to be resolved.

One reality is that Washington has lost the moral high ground to lecture others on not sharing sensitive technologies. The French will hardly be impressed by any argument coming out of Washington since they have been made to bear heavy losses from the cancellation of the Australian contract for the Short Fin Barracuda.

One pertinent question - how does Russian nuclear submarine technology compare with the French nuclear submarine technology levels.

Are we better off sticking with the Russians or can the French offer something extra.

I don't think our SSBN programme needs French assistance. So we may be considering French help only for the SSN project.
 

hit&run

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Quad was/is never a military alliance. No other than Indian EAM himself has said it.

I do not know why people are jittery about US Australia deal. NZ will be first to send it's soldiers for any expedition lead by US. There will be no nuclear subs in NZ water has no real meaning but a librandu space filler. They all are connected by civilisational fervour guided by colour, language and religion. They do have differences and do get friction on various issues but they have far better cultural and behavioural training to handle them.

It will take two full paragraphs to write about AU NZ military operation with US which has been happening on steroids since Obama tenure and beyond. AUKUS is just a christening of existing mechanism.

India must be mentioned here and it can only be described as a nation with it's own trajectory trying to catch up. No on should judge our maneuvering of the ties with multiple sources.
 
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The Shrike

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That refurbished junk which you are talking about still scares the living daylights out of the West.
And don't for a second think that the Aussies will be getting those state of the art Virginias, they have way too much classified tech to give to an ally which was few years ago in bed with China.
At best the Aussies will be getting modernized LA class subs with a few inputs from the UK.
As per reports they will likely get updated Astute class subs with some American systems + likely some amount of it being built in Australia.
What Sandeep Unnithan is saying is that we have paused our own indigenous SSN program because of cost, but instead going to give $3B or so to the Russians for a 10 year lease starting sometime near 2030 ( by when the actual sub hull, or whatever was completed will be 30+ years old).
 

werewolf

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An preliminary analysis of the situation leads to one inescapable fact.
France has just lost an promising sale worth tens of billions of US dollars over the next decade and beyond.

If India were to approach France for help in the SSN programme, the French may be receptive. Many imponderables are there like
1. agreement on the price
2.extent of technology transfer
3.choice of shipyard in India(we should remember that Dassault was reluctant
to partner with the public sector HAL for the Rafale programme) etc.
So even though theoretically the prospect of French assistance has improved there will be many issues which will have to be resolved.

One reality is that Washington has lost the moral high ground to lecture others on not sharing sensitive technologies. The French will hardly be impressed by any argument coming out of Washington since they have been made to bear heavy losses from the cancellation of the Australian contract for the Short Fin Barracuda.

One pertinent question - how does Russian nuclear submarine technology compare with the French nuclear submarine technology levels.

Are we better off sticking with the Russians or can the French offer something extra.

I don't think our SSBN programme needs French assistance. So we may be considering French help only for the SSN project.
Choice of shipyard is obvious for them. L&t and mazgaon.They had these two on board for P75I. Judging by their reactions on open source medias they seem to be happy with Mazgaon.

Price could be a bit low as the French govt said that they will support Naval group in this financial loss.
They surely need a partner to bail them out like the egyptians did with their mistral lpd.

And the huskies don't have a proven pumpjet propulsion design. Their latest Yasen is propellerr driven. Navy is more interested in pumpjet.

My only concern is whether we will grab the opportunity or not. Brazil might take a shot at this considering
they have taken french help with their ssn program.
 

jackprince

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The french are fuming. USA always screws them up in mega deals. The couldn't sell their already built up Mistral LPD to Russia due to ssanctions. Fortunately Egypt bailed them out.
We have a very good opportunity here but we will fuck it up just like we did the C17,M2K prodctn line etc.

India has also said no comments during EAM presser while japan and taiwan welcomed the alliance.
We don't want to upset the french and agreed on your point to negotiate a very good sub deal.
We could have gotten the Mistral too. We didn't. We haven't decided on Rafale F4 yet. We needed light tanks 2 years back and yet there is no emergency order for the same. So we would definitely have fcked up if there was something to fck up. Our babus are expert in that. Anyhow, there is nothing to fck up here, at least.


Anyhow, the Shortfin Baracuda deal with Austrlia isn't something that could interest India, when India is looking for something to build here in India with functional AIP under 75I. So, thankfully, you don't have to worry this time around.
 

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