- May 1, 2015
That makes sense, I think it takes a sustained effort but the propaganda and public will can be there.I suggest you read the history of the 1971 War extensively, as there are several parallels which can be used here. Propaganda, if used rightly, can sway any populace on the planet, irrespective of nationality or religion. If it 37% at this stage, without any active propaganda effort by Indian intelligence(at least, as far as I see), I consider those to be good numbers. Propaganda works in different ways, including the setting up of alternative radio stations and TV channels to ensure Pak doesn't interfere in their operation, victimization and reinforcing the belief that the Balochs are not the same as the rest of Pakistan. The faultline which must be used to the best possible extent is the divide between the supposedly-dominant Punjabi population and the rest of Pakistan. The main complication though will be the Islamist influence in Balochistan along with the presence of a large Pashtun population(I guess around 36%). The presence of Pashtuns is a pretty big problem imo.
When it comes to the war itself, the Balochs don't need fighters, nor can we afford to give them those. A few helicopters are possible, as India did with the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, but several other logistical problems, including the setting up of helipads and stationing of IAF personnel for repair and management would also exist. At this point, the raising of a cadre-based guerilla force is what is required, armed with basic weaponry. Delivery can possibly be routed through Afg. I am unaware of the logistics of this plan, but I recently heard a talk given by Maj. Gaurav Arya, where he said that it would be possible to train and arm Balochs through Lakshadweep. A cool idea, but it ignores the presence of the Pakistani Coastal Guard, and the sheer distance, but this idea is worth exploring.
If Balochistan must be freed however, they cannot afford to be alone and fight off the Pakistan Army, as the latter's strength and technological advantage is very high as compared to the Balochs. In the event of Balochistan's liberation, Indian intervention along the IB and LoC will be required. It would be interesting to consider a naval invasion of Balochistan by India.
Thing about naval invasion though, I understand India's navy is much stronger than Pakistan's, but won't that trigger a nuclear attack?