Political will to use N weapons

advaita

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Are you saying that China/India despite declaring NFU can go for the first strike??. Ideally there is nothing stopping them doing so, but that will create ambiguity when you fight a war which will create misunderstanding and might lead to unintended consequences. But under what circumstances they would do this?, something that has to be ponder over.
What is the guarantee for NFU. And who can encash it.

About circumstances, sir if future was pridictable then there would be no fights. No. This argurment fails from the start. Idea is to prepare for the worse while keeping things open and above board, right ....... wrong. Fear changes the equation.

But if as a nation you want to be taken seriously by other countries and world at large, it is better to abide by rules especially when you make your own rules.
See it cannot be a matter of either this being right or only that being right. All the Life, which is infinite lies in between. But the human tendency is to keep looking for a way out and that is why humans are fearful. No other way, no fear.

Chinese supplied half the world with Nukes after signing NPT, what happened to them. They go on to threaten US. OoE gave the instance himself. And Chinese were not afraid of totality. OoE says so himself.

Point is what do you do when the other guy wants to cross the threshold, well giving him a Pyrrhic's victory is one thing you can do (out of many other that is possible)

OoE was suggesting Surrender too. That is too. But after Indian surrender I will send my baby to US (no point living with Indians).
 

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Had you not been lucky then what
We would not be having this conversation and I would most likely be dead.

You yourself mentioned Zero yield testing. Can you guarantee it (aah no point, I will never be able to encash the guarantee. But no guarantee to Xe Hin... too)
There is heavy pressure by the DOE on the DOD in the US to test new warhead designs. Congress has thus far said no.

Zero yield testing does not mean a positive test. In fact, far from it. The Pakistanis have done more than their fare share of zero yield tests but the Chinese refusal to test one of their modified designs in 1996 meant that their arsenal had problems until their own tests.

The North Koreans also done their fair share of zero yield tests and thus far, two duds (I'm of the view one dud and one trick).
 

hit&run

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Nuclear blackmail? The only time the Chinese did that was against the US and it backed fire.

You mean that one Pu air sample that Los Alamos Labs contiminated? There are several arguments against it, namely LA Labs screwed up and thus we cannot verify where the Pu came from, either from Pakistan or China or North Korea ... or the most likely explaination, from India.

One air sample is way too small for a Pu based bomb and the thinking now is that the sample drifted in from India's own tests but since the sample got contiminated, it cannot be verified.

However, given what we learned from AQ Khan's own notes from Lybia and Sweden, the Pakistanis are nowhere close to a Pu bomb.

However, I am willing to examine your sources.

The way it was presented to me was that the Chinese diplomat was so frustrated that he left the room and told the Indian delegates to call him back when they got things settled with the other NSG delegates.

No clue as to what you mean here.

China factor
I can understand your authority and limitations to write any thing here sir, but i am immune to answer that Pakistan has to just assemble chines developed nuclear warheads. That was the only reason she was ineffectual to oppose USA providing NSG exemption to India(which came by surprise to china as USA was pre planned to punish china for her nuclear proliferation).


And yet, not one single new warhead has been added even though China has enough fissible materials for 5000. Not one CSS-4 has been MIRVed. Chinese SSBNs still go on patrol without one nuke on board. During this entire time, the 2AF increased their conventional strike force by a factor of 40 missiles per year while not increasing one single nuclear armed brigade nor increase the number of missiles per nuclear armed brigade.

A hint about China/PLA watching. Look at the regiment/brigade badges. Anything else will drive you mad with speculation.

Do the details matter? Does it matter to deterrence if the weapons are rusty difficult to manage,placed in storage, not tipped etc?Or if they use archaic technologies?
No one can quantify the degree to which deterrence depends on the details.

Chines word ‘minimum’ in minimum deterrence depends almost entirely on how you define their ‘credibility’ and ‘credibility’ is an abstract concept whose subjective definition depends upon the mental map of the person(s) or organisational culture concerned rather than ‘objective’ empirical data.

Furthermore it will be a lose-lose situation for china to improve or increase her nuclear warheads (which is already mature enough!?) as it will force USA (already under pressure) and Russia or india to do the same or you never now they may test more advance nuclear warhead to further push ahead limits of their deterrence.

That is way chines are looking at sea:wink: !!



Google nuclear forensics.
Thanks sir

Because all 3 are members of the N5 and all N5 got treaty obligations.

Not really, Because they are not going buy hypothetical nuclear posture and strategy; based on certain sets of logic which are difficult to verify and without any evidence as far as china is concerned.
...........................................................................
 

advaita

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You can't wipe out a religion with nukes. The Bediouins are far too spread out to be targetted and villages of less than 800 people would be skimped over.

There are things nukes can do and things nukes cannot do. Wiping out a religion is something nukes cannot do.
Bediouins will just die of thirst. Fade away into oblivion as innumerable other sects/civilizations have (often times in urban environments). Remember Falun gong, Aum ... (that Jap sect). India itself is filled with cases of sects coming and going. Just drifting into oblivion inspite of positive efforts by state.

Nuking Islamic people will not kill of the islamic people that live in US. They will killed by the Single nuke that hits NY. Talking across time and not matter.
 

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China factor
It's precisely that I am a PLA watcher that I go with what evidence is at hand. The details matter because my projections were off and nowhere close to what the Chinese were doing.

About 20 years ago, I believed the Chinese had about 1000 warheads while Janes and others said 400-600. My reasoning was that I was counting silos, tubes, and bomb bays. Needless to say I was off, way off.

About 10 years ago, the PLA embarked upon brigadization which lead me to believe that they were going to abandon their traditional regt-div-army model to our brigade-div-corps model. Then 4 years ago, the Chinese announced the battalion-brigade-corps model and I had no clue as to what they mean (I still don't).

About the same time, the PLA announced the War Zone Campaign and all initial evidence suggests that this was an expeditionary doctrine. Then, two years ago, I saw a Chengdu exercise in which they retreated 30 miles behind their initial Line of Contact, not their initial Line of Departure, but their initial Line of Contact.

Like I said, speculating about what the Chinese is going to do is just going to drive you mad. It is best to wait for the regimental cap badges to tell you themselves. The reason being is that it's damned hard to figure out what the Chinese are doing when they don't even know themselves. Let them figure it out and then, they will tell you, not directly but their exercises speak volumes.
 

advaita

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We would not be having this conversation and I would most likely be dead.
Great then how would you have liked your opponent. With American ideals or without.

There is heavy pressure by the DOE on the DOD in the US to test new warhead designs. Congress has thus far said no.

Zero yield testing does not mean a positive test. In fact, far from it. The Pakistanis have done more than their fare share of zero yield tests but the Chinese refusal to test one of their modified designs in 1996 meant that their arsenal had problems until their own tests.

The North Koreans also done their fair share of zero yield tests and thus far, two duds (I'm of the view one dud and one trick).
See the point is verifiability. Have the Chinese given up Nuke research because US congress does not allow it to DOD.

About verifiability you mentioned something about not marrying warheads to Launch vehicles. The sticky issue again becomes verifiability. Unfortunately with Nukes the verifiability issue is not there because it is totality. So how would the guy hit first like to live thereafter.
 

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When did NK made there Nuke. After 92 or before that. They who dont know not that man has walked the moon, who have zero industrial capicity.
Two duds would argue against Chinese provened design. Actually, the second test, the Chinese are strongly suspecting that it was faked. No noble gases have been detected.

Same goes for Pak.
The Chinese was accused of testing a Pakistani device in 1990. They signed in 1992. It was alleged that they refused to test another Pakistani device in 1996.

Nevertheless, the AQ Khan blueprints found in Switzerland were modified CHIC-4 warheads, a design the Chinese abandonned a long time ago.
 

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Great then how would you have liked your opponent. With American ideals or without.
Doesn't matter. I would be dead. And I suspect my Warsaw Pact counterpart would rather have his ideal than mine but then again, he would be dead also.

See the point is verifiability. Have the Chinese given up Nuke research because US congress does not allow it to DOD.
*** sigh *** We know what they're testing as they do us and they're not testing new designs.

About verifiability you mentioned something about not marrying warheads to Launch vehicles. The sticky issue again becomes verifiability. Unfortunately with Nukes the verifiability issue is not there because it is totality. So how would the guy hit first like to live thereafter.
With only 200 nukes, I think most of the Indian population is safe.
 

advaita

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speculating about what the Chinese is going to do is just going to drive you mad.

That is why prepare and prepare well with totality in mind. Even the Chinese armament is enough to total US.

It is best to wait for the regimental cap badges to tell you themselves. The reason being is that it's damned hard to figure out what the Chinese are doing when they don't even know themselves. Let them figure it out and then, they will tell you, not directly but their exercises speak volumes.
Indians were idiots that they waited while Chinese armed itself in 50(s). They paid for their idiocy in 62. North East was saved only because Chinese feared fresh US attacks after the Korean war. Both side wanted to avoid that. This time esp in 20/30 plan and Chipak Two front there would be no time for Indians and US will freeze for fear of economic reasons.




Pls dont take it all at once OoE. This is only a forum. And we respect your expertise enough to want you to keep coming back.
 

advaita

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Doesn't matter. I would be dead. And I suspect my Warsaw Pact counterpart would rather have his ideal than mine but then again, he would be dead also.
Well if Nukes are useless why dont Chinese Govt not give them up.

My view is that they cannot give up even the smallest arsenel (per your estimate) because they carry a fear value. In fact they knew Indians would be caught in fear that is why they handed over Chic-4 to Pak and likewise NK to counter the US.

Also as regards info provided by you on NK. I have hesitation on accepting the view. See the point is fear of even the possibility of having Nukes is so great that US is putting sanctions on NK....and what not.

My point was fear works and that is why the secrecy and against fear only counter fear is going to work.

*** sigh *** We know what they're testing as they do us and they're not testing new designs.
That is why you guys need to test and that is why we need to test and that is why the fear rules.

With only 200 nukes, I think most of the Indian population is safe.
My view is with 200 Nukes (I dont think it is 200 though) India is totalled except the diaspora (thankfully the diaspora is a wholistic one - hindus, muslims, sikhs, Jains, Buddhists.....that is why Indians should not fear for ideals and with no fear for loss of civilization Indians should match the war every single step, otherwise the Indians will be known as only a surrendering civilization).
 

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That is why prepare and prepare well with totality in mind. Even the Chinese armament is enough to total US.
The Chinese ain't Martians. There's a practical limit to what they can do and a political limit to what they will do.

Indians were idiots that they waited while Chinese armed itself in 50(s). They paid for their idiocy in 62. North East was saved only because Chinese feared fresh US attacks after the Korean war. Both side wanted to avoid that. This time esp in 20/30 plan and Chipak Two front there would be no time for Indians and US will freeze for fear of economic reasons.
I have no idea where you're going with this.

There was nothing wrong with Indian weapons during the 1962 War, except for the lack of weapons discipline and maintenance. The .303 LEE-ENFIELD is still the weapon of choice for my Rangers, namely it could drop a Polar Bear while the 5.56 M16C7A2 would only p!ss it off.
 

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Well if Nukes are useless why dont Chinese Govt not give them up.
Diplomacy 101, you don't give up anything without getting something in return.

My view is that they cannot give up even the smallest arsenel (per your estimate) because they carry a fear value.
In order to have a nuclear deterrant, you need a nuclear deterrant.

In fact they knew Indians would be caught in fear that is why they handed over Chic-4 to Pak
Have you considered why Pakistan wanted it?

and likewise NK to counter the US.
NK nukes ain't Chinese nukes. I can go into details why but I suspect you're not interested in those. Hell, even the US has detailed exactly what the NKs were doing and no, the Chinese ain't involved.

Also as regards info provided by you on NK. I have hesitation on accepting the view.
That's because you don't follow the details. I've waited 3 weeks, waiting each day for confirmation of noble gases. Did you?

And when no noble gases were detected, the scientists went into a CYA mode trying to provide an explaination why such is not the case with a low heavy weather pressure in conjunction with a deep shaft, all the while ignoring that I have better odds marying Raquel Welch.

See the point is fear of even the possibility of having Nukes is so great that US is putting sanctions on NK....and what not.
Not sure what you're getting at here. The sanctions are automatic.

My point was fear works and that is why the secrecy and against fear only counter fear is going to work.
I was a soldier. I don't scare easy. Neither does the Chinese soldier and most certainly, the Indian soldier.

That is why you guys need to test and that is why we need to test and that is why the fear rules.
The viability of the aged arsenal. The testing is done to confirm that the nuke still works ... or that entire batch got to be pulled, stripped, and rebuilt.

My view is with 200 Nukes (I dont think it is 200 though) India is totalled except the diaspora (thankfully the diaspora is a wholistic one - hindus, muslims, sikhs, Jains, Buddhists.....that is why Indians should not fear for ideals and with no fear for loss of civilization Indians should match the war every single step, otherwise the Indians will be known as only a surrendering civilization).
China lost more than 200 towns/cities in WWII. So did Germany and the USSR.
 

roma

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Another Krishna Menon ??

India, China unlikely to allow mutual conflict: Menon
( taken off
India, China unlikely to allow mutual conflict: Menon - Yahoo! India News dated weds 19th aug 2009 )
Wed, Aug 19 01:08 AM
Wed, Aug 19 01:08 AM

New Delhi, Aug 18 (PTI) India and China are unlikely to allow their high economic growth to be disrupted by any military conflict in the coming decades, a former Navy officer said today. "Both the neighbouring countries are on path of high economic growth and a war between them may ruin the process completely, which both the countries would not like to allow in the coming decades," Rear Admiral (Retd) K Raja Menon said here.

Underlining the growing importance of India and China, Menon, a defence analyst, said the two countries were being so influential that a full fledged war between them will take the shape of another ''world war''. Speaking about Pakistan, Menon said the country is facing different internal crises and is unlikely to recover from them in years to come.

"Pakistan is facing many internal crisis which it will not be able to contain as a huge number of ''youth bulge'' in the country will be a great obstacle in coming days," he said. Menon was addressing a gathering after receiving the Professor M L Sondhi Prize for international politics for 2008.

The award instituted by M L Sondhi Memorial Trust and M L Sondhi Institute for Asia Pacific Affairs in 2006 comprises a cash of Rs one lakh and a plaque.

i think another menon also advocated that all is well regarding chinese troop movements in 1962
 

fulcrum

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I don't know about that in a full fledged war but.. I don't think India will use nukes even if the pakis lob a single nuke, say sorry, and blame it on some terrorist.. if the government is headed by ppl like MMS or Vajpayee. Imagine the laurels and nobel prizes- that will be too much to ignore for MMS minded ppl. We'll only see crap like "We are the most resilient ppl on this planet" Or "We are the most understanding and tolerant ppl ever" rather than turning Pakiland to glass. And then the Human rights people would step in and say if we launch nukes, then Pakistan will launch all the nukes and the causality will only get higher quoting their most loved quote"An eye for an eye will only make the whole world blind". Most probably we'll see only conventional strikes as an aftermath, not a nuclear one.
 

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