Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

[Indx TechStyle]

India won't be 10 trillion$ economy even in 2030, we were projected to be more than 5 trillion by now by IMF & WB a decade ago & we all know what happened...Never take this projection seriously

I don't think 15 years was really a very long term projection but yeah for 2050.

During end of last decade, India was growing at double digit probably one which this projected but then came the economic crisis which caused recession.

So, the question depends sustaination of growth. Depends on how much we sustain.
The other thing, I neither think that India had any such high projection in 2007 (10 years ago) nor I'm aware of any such projection by IMF or WB. If you could provide will be appreciated.

Projections for India 2030:
BBC: $6.6 trillions by 2030
PWC- $7.5 trillions by 2030
WB & IMF: $10.2 & $10.6 trillions by 2030

Indian Government: $10 trillions by 2026 (Target)
I'm still optimistic about reforms though and hoping for best.

Around 80s, we used to have just 52% of GDP per capita of countries like Pakistan, today, we lead by 25%! I don't think it won't be an exaggeration for a fast growing middle income country India to be at least a middle income economy like Mexico or Thailand etc., if not developed.
For total GDP growth, our per capita income growth rate is enough high, upto 6.6%!, only population & fertility rate will.decide future of total GDP.

The thread is about Pakistan's growth projection, not India. Please stick to it.

Thanks, I'm stopping myself here.

Such reports are to be taken with a pinch of salt, there are too many variables and unless someone has a crystal ball, one can never predict the future.

I only read these reports to because they reflect faith in emerging markets. Pakistan has come up in different reports but the situation is far from ideal. The economy is too fragile and will not sustain growth in case of a coup, a short military conflict with India or even if the security situation deteriorates it will have a negative impact on the investors.

Much depends on other factors than GDP growth too. You can predict it in PPP but not exactly in nominal at least.
China was project to reach $5.4 trillions by 2015 but inflation and currency appreciation changed the things completely!
That's why I call East Asian Economies "inflated balloons" when to troll them. India has remained on their growth level otherwise in PPP.

 

[Mikesingh]

These are only projections by some nuts who have no other work to do! I would like to know how they have arrived at these figures? This British 'think tank' still seems pretty pissed off with India after we threw out the Brits lock stock and barrel in 1947!

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

February 8, 2017

Will grow to move up 8 places, China to remain on top among 32 largest economies. PHOTO: AFP

KARACHI: Pakistan will become the 20th largest economy among 32 peers by 2030 and will further grow to become the 16th largest by 2050, stated a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of the world’s largest professional services firms.

The report titled, ‘The Long View: How will the global economic order change by 2050?’ said that emerging markets will dominate the world’s top 10 economies in 2050 with China continuing to lead the pack. It projected GDP for 32 of the largest economies in the world, which together currently account for around 85% of global GDP.

Pakistan and Egypt are set to overtake Italy and Canada by 2040, it said.

Fitch affirms Pakistan at ‘B’; outlook deemed stable

“By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France, while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a purchasing power parity basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around 5% a year.”

According to the report, by 2030, Pakistan will improve its rank from 24th to 20th and will see a further improvement of four places in the next 20 years, based on projected GDP (at PPP).

India will overtake the US to become the second-largest by 2050, it added.

“China has already overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy in PPP terms, while India currently stands in third place and is projected to overtake the US by 2040 in PPP terms.

“When looking at GDP measured at market exchange rates, we do not see quite such a radical shift in global economic power, reflecting the lower average price levels in emerging economies.

“But China still emerges as the largest economy in the world before 2030 and India is clearly the third largest in the world by 2050, so there is still a considerable shift in economic power towards Asia in particular whichever measure we use.”

‘Pakistan’s economy will collapse in the next 10 years’

According to the GDP at PPP measure, Canada is currently ranked as the 17th largest economy, but by 2030 the country will slip to the 18th position and by 2050 to the 22nd spot.

Egypt will move to the 15th place with Pakistan at 16th.

Despite the Canadian economy’s diminished status, the country’s GDP will roughly double to $3.1 trillion by 2050 from its current level.

While PwC’s findings show some of the same countries near the top of the list in 13 years, they also have numerous economies slipping or rising massively by 2030.


Read more: economy , Pakistan , PWC

Good luck for that but Pakistan shall be a chinese colony by then.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

I don't think 15 years was really a very long term projection but yeah for 2050.

During end of last decade, India was growing at double digit probably one which this projected but then came the economic crisis which caused recession.

So, the question depends sustaination of growth. Depends on how much we sustain.
The other thing, I neither think that India had any such high projection in 2007 (10 years ago) nor I'm aware of any such projection by IMF or WB. If you could provide will be appreciated.

Projections for India 2030:
BBC: $6.6 trillions by 2030
PWC- $7.5 trillions by 2030
WB & IMF: $10.2 & $10.6 trillions by 2030

Indian Government: $10 trillions by 2026 (Target)
I'm still optimistic about reforms though and hoping for best.

Around 80s, we used to have just 52% of GDP per capita of countries like Pakistan, today, we lead by 25%! I don't think it won't be an exaggeration for a fast growing middle income country India to be at least a middle income economy like Mexico or Thailand etc., if not developed.
For total GDP growth, our per capita income growth rate is enough high, upto 6.6%!, only population & fertility rate will.decide future of total GDP.

Thanks, I'm stopping myself here.

Much depends on other factors than GDP growth too. You can predict it in PPP but not exactly in nominal at least.
China was project to reach $5.4 trillions by 2015 but inflation and currency appreciation changed the things completely!
That's why I call East Asian Economies "inflated balloons" when to troll them. India has remained on their growth level otherwise in PPP.

While talking about Indian Economy, most of the people forget is that Indian economy is four time larger in PPP terms than in nominal term. So there is a huge potential in India to be much bigger economy when the correction in Rupee value starts taking place. I am sure that India will overtake china very soon because if you see, india is all set to be the hub of world in aviation , defense and other high technology goods. Boing, Airbus, Saab, Lockheed Martin, Japanese Koreans, Russians who not comes to India. I foresee china reduced to a market of low tech labour intensive good manufacturer only. India is no doubt emerging as the hub of Automobile and we shall be either No 1 in export or next to US. China is biggest manufacturer of the cars but it is behind even India in export because of poor quality. Whatever little is exported is because of Multinational plants. Our government need to focus on bringing down the cost of factor of production such as cost of capital, Electricity and RAW material. Manpower is already cheap. What we need is a good government at center for next 20 to 25 years and we shall be on top. We need Modi for next 20 years.

Other area where India will become a hub shall be knowledge based industries and R & D. In next few years from now, R & D in any destination except India shall become unaffordable. That is many of the major multinationals are moving their research centers in India.

 

[sthf]

So even at it's peak, Pakistani economy will be 1/10th of Indian economy with 1/5th the population.

Damn shame if you ask me. I was of the opinion that because of CPEC, Pakis will leave India far behind.

 

[3deffect]

So even at it's peak, Pakistani economy will be 1/10th of Indian economy with 1/5th the population.

Damn shame if you ask me. I was of the opinion that because of CPEC, Pakis will leave India far behind.

you are right after investing huge money by china..and cheering for CPEC from many years..i was thinking pakistan will leave behind india till 2050..

is CPEC is not GAME CHANGER????

 

[sthf]

you are right after investing huge money by china..and cheering for CPEC from many years..i was thinking pakistan will leave behind india till 2050..

is CPEC is not GAME CHANGER????

Dude you are just jealous that India does not have CPEC. Ask Zarvan or Neo they will tell you about the new ASIAN TIGER Pakistan and it's economic miracle CPEC.

The day is not far when India will ask Pakistan for aid.

"Naalio main Daalar bahenge"

 

[IndianHawk]

is CPEC is not GAME CHANGER????

Saying that is a blasphemy in Pakistan

Off with your head.

 

[aditya10r]

you are right after investing huge money by china..and cheering for CPEC from many years..i was thinking pakistan will leave behind india till 2050..

is CPEC is not GAME CHANGER????

CPEC IS DEBT MAKER NOT A CHANGE Maker

 

[1971ftw]

Lol porki wet dreams are pathetic , even their wildest fantasy makes them only 16 lol they are they are the 5th most populous country .

 

[Indx TechStyle]

So even at it's peak, Pakistani economy will be 1/10th of Indian economy with 1/5th the population.

Damn shame if you ask me. I was of the opinion that because of CPEC, Pakis will leave India far behind.

Only by British PWC, by World Bank and IMF, India will have 40 to 50 times of Pakistani Economy.
If India becomes an upper middle income economy with 60% higher population than PRC, surpassing Chinese Economy in this century won't be unrealistic.

 

[IndianHawk]

Only by British PWC, by World Bank and IMF, India will have 40 to 50 times of Pakistani Economy.
If India becomes an upper middle income economy with 60% higher population than PRC, surpassing Chinese Economy in this century won't be unrealistic.

Even so title of the thread is misleading .
Pakistan will be 16th by PPP like Canada is today.

Today at PPP India is 8 trillion while pakistan is 900 billion that's almost 10 times larger already.

So by both PPP and nominal we are already 10 times larger than pakistan .Now if we grow at same rate India will still be much larger.

Anyway 16 largest by PPP is almost inconsequential. Pakistan won't have any affect on world economic governance .

 

[sthf]

Only by British PWC, by World Bank and IMF, India will have 40 to 50 times of Pakistani Economy.
If India becomes an upper middle income economy with 60% higher population than PRC, surpassing Chinese Economy in this century won't be unrealistic.

Despite the fact that Brits will be butthurt whether its 2017 or 2117, 40-50 times is unrealistic to say the least. Never had any faith in these silly predictions.

I didn't get the 60% part. Please elaborate.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Never had any faith in these silly predictions.

These predictions are based on statistics, not Jyotirvidya.:biggrin2:
All I know that India has performed only better than PwC projections.
If not exactly, results are always proved close to projection.

Despite the fact that Brits will be butthurt whether its 2017 or 2117, 40-50 times is unrealistic to say the least. Never had any faith in these silly predictions.

Not saying 40-50 times of UK but 40-50 times of Pakistan or Bangladesh.
India's per capita income growth rate has remained 1.5 to double of Pakistan since last 25 years and now projecting of triple. So, overall growth isn't unrealistic.

I didn't get the 60% part. Please elaborate.

1. Your economy is productvof your population and per capita income.
2. Lower middle income countries sustain higher growth rate than middle income and similarly middle income group grows faster than developed world.
3. India's population growth rate, 1.16% is medium while fertility rate, 2.4 is low.
4. But as China's population growth rate, 0.39% & even lower fertility rate (around 1.5) is very low, its been declining.

All I know that India's population projected around 1.46 billion in 2030, 1.7billion in 2050 & 1.6 billion till end of century, compared to China's 1.3 billion for 2100.

China will undoubtedly be a developed country by 2050 while India can break only in middle income group.

Given China's declining population & slowing growth, India needs to sustain current growth to achieve 70% of China's GDP per capita.

Having 70-80% of GDP per capita with 60% higher population means slightly bigger economy.

And now, please don't call population projections "silly". I hope you are aware that India will be most populated country in less than 10 years. So, here are the numbers.

Plus I like if you guys are trying to be realist, I respect your all views to not celebrate before time, but a such highly populated which is yet to matured in HDI indicators being largest economy is obvious.

 

[SilentKiller]

Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

February 8, 2017

Will grow to move up 8 places, China to remain on top among 32 largest economies. PHOTO: AFP

KARACHI: Pakistan will become the 20th largest economy among 32 peers by 2030 and will further grow to become the 16th largest by 2050, stated a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of the world’s largest professional services firms.

The report titled, ‘The Long View: How will the global economic order change by 2050?’ said that emerging markets will dominate the world’s top 10 economies in 2050 with China continuing to lead the pack. It projected GDP for 32 of the largest economies in the world, which together currently account for around 85% of global GDP.

Pakistan and Egypt are set to overtake Italy and Canada by 2040, it said.

Fitch affirms Pakistan at ‘B’; outlook deemed stable

“By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France, while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a purchasing power parity basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around 5% a year.”

According to the report, by 2030, Pakistan will improve its rank from 24th to 20th and will see a further improvement of four places in the next 20 years, based on projected GDP (at PPP).

India will overtake the US to become the second-largest by 2050, it added.

“China has already overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy in PPP terms, while India currently stands in third place and is projected to overtake the US by 2040 in PPP terms.

“When looking at GDP measured at market exchange rates, we do not see quite such a radical shift in global economic power, reflecting the lower average price levels in emerging economies.

“But China still emerges as the largest economy in the world before 2030 and India is clearly the third largest in the world by 2050, so there is still a considerable shift in economic power towards Asia in particular whichever measure we use.”

‘Pakistan’s economy will collapse in the next 10 years’

According to the GDP at PPP measure, Canada is currently ranked as the 17th largest economy, but by 2030 the country will slip to the 18th position and by 2050 to the 22nd spot.

Egypt will move to the 15th place with Pakistan at 16th.

Despite the Canadian economy’s diminished status, the country’s GDP will roughly double to $3.1 trillion by 2050 from its current level.

While PwC’s findings show some of the same countries near the top of the list in 13 years, they also have numerous economies slipping or rising massively by 2030.


Read more: economy , Pakistan , PWC

as per 2014 report, pakistan position was 15th and as per 2016 report its now 16th..so this is the impact of CPEC?

 

[hriday]

thats way pakistan become economic power, right porki

 

[sthf]

@Indx TechStyle

My argument is not with you buddy but with the morons who come up with these "predictions". I respect your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

Take a look around you man, world is going to shit. We can't even predict next 5 years let alone 50. They (forecasters) take a very generalised view of things based on the simplistic calculations.

Let me put a few points and you can judge from there on.

1) None of these wise guys predicted that oil will go below $40 in 2014 and none of them will say when and if it will reach $400.

2) Automation will start eating millions of jobs each year, earlier than these pundints predicted.

 

[sthf]

@Indx TechStyle

3) Geo-politics is changing at an unprecedented pace.

As for the Indian population, you must read the article I am posting.

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/staying-alive/the-myth-of-indias-population-explosion/


For China.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38714949

 

[Indx TechStyle]

@Indx TechStyle
My argument is not with you buddy but with the morons who come up with these "predictions". I respect your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

These are "projections" not "predictions" mate.
They completely depend on "if current scenario goes on". Usually, considered over experience of decades and assuming that convention will remain consistent.
There's a convention that countries with declining population grow slower.

Take a look around you man, world is going to shit. We can't even predict next 5 years let alone 50. They (forecasters) take a very generalised view of things based on the simplistic calculations.

It's not simplistic calculation! It's real GDP growth.
Though two major factors,
Inflation
Currency
which can't be predicted do affect GDP greatly too.

1) None of these wise guys predicted that oil will go below $40 in 2014 and none of them will say when and if it will reach $400.

These are very volatile issues which depend on time. Do you know when you'll die? Here do we go.

And it was British PwC.
Otherwise, these "predictions" are made for only stable economies whose future is "guaranteed". They don't predict unstable and fragile economies.
For example, you will find IMF GDP prediction column empty for Pakistan beyond 2018.

2) Automation will start eating millions of jobs each year, earlier than these pundints predicted.

That's a different issue and has already been "predicted" if you don't know.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

@Indx TechStyle

3) Geo-politics is changing at an unprecedented pace.

I have already told you about this,
If you have read my previous post.
I said fertility rate is 2.4 (below world average) and population growth rate is 1.16% (sustainable) which means it will grow moderately till 2050 and will sharply decline post that.
Till then, let the middle class expand, that's why Indian Economy is growing fast.
China has been caught in middle income trap.

For China.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38714949

You're too naive in economics.
Do you have any idea about how difficult is to raise fertility after bringing it down?

Slight & sudden rise in Chinese fertility post removal of two child law is obvious but if you seriously think it can go above 2.5, you are missing your classes.
China's population growth rate is just 1/3rd & fertility half of India. It's been a damage than a merit. Can't be recovered. At least against India.