Pakistan nuclear threat is not a bogey: Warmongering must stop

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Zarvan

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SANJIV KRISHAN SOOD
@sood_2


The Quint dated October 24 has succinctly put it, that it is high time India stopped gloating over its minor tactical success and looked towards the future.

While the Army is to be commended for the action on September 28/29, it is our inability to evaluate Pakistani response and prepare for contingencies which is a cause of concern.

The strategic community appears to be of the opinion that the threshold of Pakistan to violence against it is very low. Discussions about likely Pakistani responses seem to evolve around a consensus that if we escalate the level of conflict, Pakistan will back out and fall in line.

My own experience at a tactical level while commanding my unit at Samba has been that the Pakistanis are capable of giving as good as they get.

This is also borne by their action of attacking Indian posts on the LoC. The Indian Army describes it as militant action supported by cover fire from Pakistani posts. However, in my assessment these were well-coordinated BAT action plans, equivalent roughly to the surgical strikes that we had carried out. The Pakistanis chose their own time and place to respond to our action.

Actions like use of precision-guided missiles and use of Israel-type lightening air raids to eliminate terrorist training camps and personalities antagonistic to India are being suggested. Exemplary violent reactions to teach a lesson have been suggested by various experts.


In January 2013, Army jawan Lance Naik Hemraj was mutilated by Pakistani soldiers. (Photo credit: India Today)
While these actions are within the realm of possibility, the difficulty is lack of precise intelligence about the location of proposed targets, besides the Pakistanis taking simple precautionary measures like frequent change of location. The strategic community appears to believe Pakistan will not up the ante and retaliate to such actions because of India's conventional superiority.

There is further consensus among thinkers that Pakistan is using the nuclear bogey to prevent India from escalating the level of conflict. It has been argued that even if the Pakistanis use a tactical nuclear weapon in the battlefield, it will cause very little harm to Indian troops whereas our retaliation will decimate them.

The strategists seem to totally discount use of larger nuclear weapons by Pakistan because of fear of total annihilation due to retaliation.

My considered view is that the nuclear bogey, as it has been called, is actually a real threat and can be ignored only at our peril. India has conventional superiority and therefore is most likely to use the nuclear option as the last resort in case of an existential threat.

This is in conformity to the first-use doctrine followed by us. Pakistan has a sufficiently large stockpile to survive our retaliation. It has not built up this stockpile at a huge cost just for keeping it. That the threat is real can be deduced from the fact that during the Kargil conflict, the US had to intervene to prevent escalation.

As said by General Mehta (retd), we need to consider the fact that options so far available to India are finite because our responses are limited to use of regular soldiers, whereas the Pakistanis have positioned several terrorists behind our lines. They simply have to activate these militants to cause trouble for us before and during any military conflict that may take place in the future.

Policymakers must refrain from pandering to an aggressive and masculine sense of patriotism which appears to be happening presently.

What about the option of resorting to covert action to take out terrorist training camps and prominent terrorists leaders sheltered in Pakistan? Presumably, we have the capability and if not, then we need to quickly build it. As they say in Hindi: "Saanp bhi mar jaye aur lathi bhi na toote."

Underestimating Pakistani reaction and capabilities is worrisome, leading to war hysteria and talks of revenge all around. Public opinion appears to think that Pakistan is a walkover.

Hopefully this war hysteria will not lead policy planners to take hasty measures resulting in washing away of years of peace dividend that we have reaped with Pakistan.

We must refrain from blowing our own trumpet as it leads to unrealistic public expectations. Affairs of war and international relations are best conducted in relative secrecy.

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/india...-strikes-nuclear-bogey-war/story/1/13739.html
 

Mikesingh

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What about the option of resorting to covert action to take out terrorist training camps and prominent terrorists leaders sheltered in Pakistan? Presumably, we have the capability and if not, then we need to quickly build it. As they say in Hindi: "Saanp bhi mar jaye aur lathi bhi na toote."
That's the only option in an asymmetric scenario where terrorists are being used as the proxies of the Pak Army to wage an undeclared war against India.

We need to pay back Pak with the same coin and conduct covert actions with the help of so called 'non state actors'. Pakistan's proxy war can only be countered by using the same tactics. As the saying goes: You need a thief to catch a thief.
 

OneGrimPilgrim

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We need to pay back Pak with the same coin and conduct covert actions with the help of so called 'non state actors'. Pakistan's proxy war can only be countered by using the same tactics. As the saying goes: You need a thief to catch a thief.
do you recall the randi-rona that happened the last time DM asserted that?! :rofl:
 

tarunraju

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It's a bogey. India will wage wars to either divide Pakistan or seek some very specific strategic objectives (i.e. taking out specific terrorists, training camps, etc.), but will not capture territory. If Pakistan carries out even a tiny tactical nuclear first-strike, then it will invite an Indian land-sea-air second-strike. So it is a bogey. No matter how mentally whacked Rawalpindus are, they know that both tactical or quantitative first-strikes will guarantee Indian second-strikes, especially under the current Indian political dispensation.

India is keeping relatively mum till November 30 to rob Raheel Sharif of a valid reason for continuing service or a promotion. In the mean time, all the first-rate bastards on our side of the border who got overwhelmed by the Indian rejoicing to the surgical strikes are beginning to come out of the woodwork. Their MO: "flame Modi that surgical strikes achieved nothing," so that it either costs Modi political capital ahead of UP polls, or baits an escalation that gives Raheel job-security in pindi.
 

Rahul Singh

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I don't know if author has taken in account that sucess of covert actions depends on effectivness of pressures from all fronts including military. And for kind information India only started showing aggressive military posture after having reached certain stage on other fronts which started just after Pathankot.

Anyway as far as Pakistan nuclear threat being a bogey or not. Well lets consider few points.

a. India long knew about the threat of nuclear bombs from Pakistan. And we have paid significant effort towards reducing it's effectiveness if not neutralizing it. DRDO has spent last decade developing BMD. And today first phase of BMD program is complete and operational at selected centers. Phase 2 is already under development and will take care of long range missile including that from China. In meantime GOI is making purchase of S-400 to complement existing BMD with a proven and mature system. Apart from it IAF is inducting various SAMs to augment its ground based air defense capability which will neutralize nuclear threats like low flying attack jets and cruise missile.

b. While war mongering will continue, but this Modi led GOI will not wage open war anytime soon. War will only be waged when Baluchistan movement reaches to certain level or say close to breaking point. Once attained India will go for open war for obvious reasons.

c. Most important of all this war mongering helps GOI to gather enough public support for all out nuclear response in case Pakistan chooses a selected nuclear strikes, say use at tactical level only. I believe Pakistanis think, it will not to be easy for India to go for all out full N-Response in case of Pakistani N-Actions being restricted to tactical level only. Sure enough it is. Some will say why destroy whole pakistan if they have nuked just one brigade of ours'. It such cases war mongering will come of great help.
 

armyofhind

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Not to forget the already operational S-300 systems.
Not truly a BMD, But very similar in capability to the S-400. Complements the overall missile shield.
I don't know if author has taken in account that sucess of covert actions depends on effectivness of pressures from all fronts including military. And for kind information India only started showing aggressive military posture after having reached certain stage on other fronts which started just after Pathankot.

Anyway as far as Pakistan nuclear threat being a bogey or not. Well lets consider few points.

a. India long knew about the threat of nuclear bombs from Pakistan. And we have paid significant effort towards reducing it's effectiveness if not neutralizing it. DRDO has spent last decade developing BMD. And today first phase of BMD program is complete and operational at selected centers. Phase 2 is already under development and will take care of long range missile including that from China. In meantime GOI is making purchase of S-400 to complement existing BMD with a proven and mature system. Apart from it IAF is inducting various SAMs to augment its ground based air defense capability which will neutralize nuclear threats like low flying attack jets and cruise missile.

b. While war mongering will continue, but this Modi led GOI will not wage open war anytime soon. War will only be waged when Baluchistan movement reaches to certain level or say close to breaking point. Once attained India will go for open war for obvious reasons.

c. Most important of all this war mongering helps GOI to gather enough public support for all out nuclear response in case Pakistan chooses a selected nuclear strikes, say use at tactical level only. I believe Pakistanis think, it will not to be easy for India to go for all out full N-Response in case of Pakistani N-Actions being restricted to tactical level only. Sure enough it is. Some will say why destroy whole pakistan if they have nuked just one brigade of ours'. It such cases war mongering will come of great help.
 

sorcerer

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:D
now that paki citizens are not taking paki army seriously
paki media and puppets have started to swear on nukes.

:D
The more they do..the more US wants to put its foot in pakistan
 

Indx TechStyle

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Pakistan has a sufficiently large stockpile to survive our retaliation.
Nuclear Reactors, India: 21 Pak: 3
Won't account the growth pace or other types of unconventional weapons or defense systems.
Leave alone strategic assets like overseas military bases, triad or own space based navigation.:rolleyes:
 

Akshay_Fenix

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Looks like BSF and Indian Army is giving a serious beating to Pakistan over ceasefire violations. :bounce:

2nd article telling India to show restraint.

Just by looking at the images in the article will tell you that it's a pro-pak article.
Pak soldiers standing tall while Indian soldiers in coffins.

Disgusting mentality of the author.
 

Rahul Singh

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Pakistan has a sufficiently large stockpile to survive our retaliation. It has not built up this stockpile at a huge cost just for keeping it.
And for their entire stockpile of 130-150 warheads we will have 5 times interceptors in form of PAD, AAD, S-400 for BMs and MRSAM for cruise missiles.

But I don't discount Pakistans' capablity to match our interceptors number by number(and go bankrupt in the process:crying:).
 

Rahul Singh

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Looks like BSF and Indian Army is giving a serious beating to Pakistan over ceasefire violations. :bounce:

2nd article telling India to show restraint.

Just by looking at the images in the article will tell you that it's a pro-pak article.
Pak soldiers standing tall while Indian soldiers in coffins.

Disgusting mentality of the author.
And it seems even author can not disregard the fact that India needs to crush Pakistan though he wants to stress on covert actions only.

It seems our Pakistani member @Zarvan -from our famous terrorist pannel- did not bothered to read the article in full and just posted it by assuming it's content by looking at the header only. How typical:rotfl:.
 

Project Dharma

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However, in my assessment these were well-coordinated BAT action plans, equivalent roughly to the surgical strikes that we had carried out
How? Nobody came over the LOC, there was one casualty in the attack and they lost one of their own as well. The thing is bogey or no bogey, paani sir ke upar hai.. Mar dalo ja firr maro is the motto of the day, piggies run for the hills, we are coming for every single one of you.
 

aditya10r

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Paki Randi Rona


Today they will say hum inhe nest ma boot kar denge

Tommorow we do not want escalation
 

I am otm shank

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pakistan will destroy itself from inside out. India needs to expand raw and even create another Intel agency to put boots on the ground and have many people in leadership in the respective countries it will split into to be able to guide those countries into secularism and denuclearization.
 

Badsah

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@Zarvan there is no point of discussing whos Pen!$* is big either small or big will work on similar way..... so why to flaunt through proxy? Just try to use it on war mongering India after that we can have discussion else put testical nuke in RS back.... what Porki's will do if we Indian say we will not restrain? end of discussion
 
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