The internal demographics are within our control. The nukes in Pakistanis' hands are not and we need to respect that and prepare accordingly.
They aren't an existential threat but the combo of Indian Muslim % rising slowly and Bangladesh turning more Islamic will continue to fuel their delusions of Ghazwa-e-Hind.
Muslims outnumbering Hindus, turning generationally more radical in a society like India and Bangladesh being a strategic threat to India, all are delusions in themselves for fear mongering.
Current fertility rate of Indian Muslims is lower than Pakistanis, declining swiftly and again, they won't surpass Hindus in population even at TFR above Pakistan. More and more them are being pulled out from ghettos being mainstreamed into urban society.
I take it you haven’t studied the layout of the cities. the population densities, the soil moisture makeup and the wind patterns in India as well as the farming areas under the wind pattern.
Not to mention the location of repositories of knowledge and education and industries etc. just do a simple google search on population areas in India and the locations of each and you will see that 500 nukes can potentially take out 60-80% of its population through combination of direct impact, nuclear fallout, radiation, poisoning of our farmlands, etc. We will have massive famines for the next several decades and Indian society would be irrevocably changed and not for the better.
Yes, even after blindly believing that the parameters of blast radius, fall out due to produced iridium gamma rays, 500 nukes don't pose an existential threat to a country like Pakistan, leave alone India.
Off course I'm not going to account the number of nuclear weapons Pakistan can make, sustain and produce (which you comfortably killed and inflated the sheer numbers to support your unfound insistence of a word you don't know meaning of), ability to launch what number of nukes at a time undetected and getting jammed destroyed, Pakistani nuclear weapons become "aimed" at India (since you haven't even read what I asked you search so far), response time and success rate of Indian ABMs, counter nukes, economic drawbacks in two days, large scale conventional pushes and so forth since you have already oversimplified it to level of a Hindi news anchors who believe that nukes are some kind of Brahamastra or meteors. Most important will of Pakistani government and civilians to sacrifice themselves in an armageddon fighting like robots with no concern of future.
Still, if we assume that entire Indian military machine gets stagnated for no reason and no response, Pakistan gets out of air unlimited load of fissile supplies, nuclear weapons become similar to asteroids and blast large portions of big districts, Pakistani state with all its population leaves their homes for suicide missions and every other impossible bullshit we can assume, then yea, Pak is an existential threat to India.
You certainly were a disappointment LOL. Do you know about "
Threat Matrix" of Pakistan, operation Brasstacks, India's NFU vs Pakistan's first use tendency and all other things in Indo Pak episode post 1971? Do you know how the nuclear equations between Soviet Union & EU worked and why USSR was focused on strategic while its enemies on tactical nukes?
You must have heard "Pakistan will use nukes on it's own soil". Did you ever bother to research that it was not a joke but a serious military doctrine of Pakistan?
You certainly haven't neither read about nuclear fall out and military doctrine of Pakistan itself.
Do you know the meaning of "existential threat" in geopolitics?
existential threat basically describes itself. It means that it has the ability to end ones civilization as we know it.
No
A state being existential threat to another is what threatens entire sovereignty of state not just in form of revising its government but absorbing or balkanising or colonizing its entire landmass and victim state being weaker, can't protect itself alone.
You have an existential threat when an enemy country can penetrate your armour, render your military failed and run over your country, temporarily or permanently hold your territory
US, Canada, India, Brazil, Russia, China, Australia, Iran and Saudi Arabia don't have existential threats owing to their large populations, stable and pro national societies able to uproot any occupation, economic and military abilities, their own imperialistic nature at first place of influencing large geographic regions.
No they do not have 130-140 warheads. They have managed to produce 400 warheads by reports that came out 2 years ago. At that rate, I estimate by 500 warheads. That's the max they can go for given their stocks.
It is based on the nuclear reactors that the Chinese built for the Pakistanis and how the reactors breed fissile materials for the warheads. They are going for small tactical nukes to boost up the numbers of the warheads.
See here:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
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Based on the amount of fissile materials, we cannot afford to estimate less than what their nuclear materials stockpile allows for. Hence my 400-500 number.
Do you know what numbers will shoot up for other countries if same way is used? A good portion of fissile material can't be utilized for weapons.
When it comes to nukes, I assume the worst and prepare accordingly based on the current capabilities and assets they have.
What experts have assumed is worst. What you have is out of any kind of margin. Being superficial only can misplace priorities, you don't know an iota % what global governments know and have.