Pakistan heading towards a debt default? Best friend China thinks so

lcafanboy

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Pakistan heading towards a debt default? Best friend China thinks so
China must ensure that the rising fiscal deficit in Pakistan does not "snowball" into a major financial crisis as it has invested heavily in the country, specially in the USD 46 billion CPEC project, official Chinese media said today.
By: PTI | Beijing | Published: February 21, 2017 4:30 PM

The investments under the CPEC alone amounted to USD 51 billion, the article said. (Reuters)

China must ensure that the rising fiscal deficit in Pakistan does not “snowball” into a major financial crisis as it has invested heavily in the country, specially in the USD 46 billion CPEC project, official Chinese media said today.

“While Pakistan’s fast growing economy has made it a darling for foreign investment, the surge in the country’s fiscal deficit and public debts has increasingly become a source of concern for international investors and has led to doubts about its capability to repay its debts,” an article in the state-run Global Times said.

The investments under the CPEC alone amounted to USD 51 billion, the article said.

“Given the massive investment that China has made in the country as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China has a vested interest to ensure that the rising fiscal deficit in Pakistan not snowball into a major financial crisis,” it said.

“China should work closely with Pakistan to make sure that the projects it has invested in can generate tangible growth in Pakistan’s real economy, help the country properly manage its deficit level and put it on a sustainable growth path,” it said.

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Write-ups critical of Pakistan are rare in Chinese media, considering the all weather close relationship between the two.

Citing Mongolia’s experience where the fiscal deficit climbed to around 15 per cent of GDP in 2016, making it hard for to repay foreign debts, the article said “the worst-case scenario is the last thing China would desire in Pakistan”.

Citing Pakistan media reports it said Pakistan’s fiscal deficit surged to around 2.4 per cent of GDP during the first half (July-December) of the fiscal year 2016-17, the highest in four years.

In 2014-15, the half-year deficit stood at 2.2 per cent and full-year deficit at 5.3 per cent.

The government hopes to keep the deficit below 3.8 per cent of the GDP during the full 2016-17 year.

“A surge in the country’s deficit would make it vulnerable to external shocks and would increase Pakistan’s chances of a debt default. As a major creditor and the largest investor in Pakistan, China has an obligation to safeguard its investments in Pakistan and ensure it can recoup its loans,” it said.

“China needs to develop a plan to help Pakistan properly manage its deficit and reduce an excessive build-up of debt. To do that, China and Pakistan should effectively implement the CPEC project, make it more inclusive and prevent inefficiency and corruption from undermining the project,” the Global Times report said

“Meanwhile, China may need to diversify its ways of financing the CPEC projects. Currently, many projects are financed by Chinese government concessional loans. It is unrealistic and unsustainable to pin all hopes on government loans from China. Such a lending model is likely to drive up the debt level of the recipient country and toss it into a vicious cycle of inflation and currency devaluation,” it said.

“More importantly, a majority of the projects China financed in Pakistan are part of the USD 51 billion CPEC, a flagship project of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, which aligns the political, economic and strategic interests of both China and Pakistan. China cannot afford for these projects to fail financially,” it said.

LINK -- http://www.financialexpress.com/wor...t-default-best-friend-china-thinks-so/560851/
 

lcafanboy

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In short a bankrupt Pakistan is good for China this is what their media is quoting. If Pakistan goes bankrupt it will have no option but to beg from China as Pakistan now has taken loans more than it can pay and from every known source (country) in middle east and US and now these countries are in no mood to offer them more, middle east is in turmoil and with crude oil crash are in no position to offer them any and US (Trump) won't give them any.

China has taken huge calculated risk with CPEC either this money will vanish with a bankrupt broken country with Smaller countries like Sindh, Baluchistan, etc coming out of it or Pakistan will be forced by China to sell their land bit by bit taking over Baluchistan and then connecting it through FATA, Gilgit Baltistan to China, giving China entry into Arabian sea and alternative sea routes and hold on Gulf of Hormuz from where world's 40% crude oil moves. It could be very dangerous for India if neglected.
 

lcafanboy

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Windfall for Chinese on coal fired projects
By Shahbaz Rana

Published: February 15, 2017

ISLAMABAD: In what appear to be heavily China-favoured deals, Pakistan has offered up to 34.5 per cent annual profit on equity invested in coal-fired energy projects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and loans have been obtained at six per cent interest rates, excluding insurance cost.

The official documents revealed that by including the cost of insurance, also paid to a Chinese insurance company, the cost of borrowings would surge to 13 per cent. Adding insult to injury, the government has already exempted income of Chinese financial institutions from dividend income tax.

Several China-sponsored power projects hit snags

The Ministry of Water and Power on Tuesday submitted details of terms of conditions of financing and tariff structures of energy projects in a meeting of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Planning and Development, shedding some light on these deals.

The ministry provided financing details of eight energy projects having cumulative generation capacity of 7,880 megawatts and being set up at a cost of $12.54 billion. Their sponsors have obtained $9.5 billion loans at an interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 4.5 per cent, according to these documents. The six-month Libor rate was 1.34 per cent and one-year Libor was 1.71 per cent. This would translate into an interest rate equivalent to 5.84 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

The debt to equity ratio for all these eight projects is 75 per cent debt and 25 per cent equity except in case of Karot hydropower project where the debt ratio is 80 per cent.

Besides, China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) would charge seven per cent fee on the insurance of the loans given to these companies.

Pakistan and China had signed CPEC Energy Framework Agreement in November 2014. Out of $55 billion estimated cost of the CPEC, an amount of $35 billion is earmarked for energy projects.

However, the alarming thing was the return on equity that in case of coal-fired power plants was in between 27.2 per cent to 34.49, almost double the standard 17 per cent rates. In case of hydel-based projects, the internal rate of return (IRR) was 17 per cent. The high return on equity had to be given to make these projects attractive, as people were not ready to invest in coal-based projects, said Omer Rasul, Additional Secretary Ministry of Water and Power after the meeting.

Pakistan, China ink agreement for coal project

In his article, “Financing burden of CPEC”, former Governor State Bank of Pakistan, Dr Ishrat Husain recently wrote, “The loans would be taken by Chinese companies, mainly from the China Development Bank and China Exim Bank, against their own balance sheets”.

Dr Husain estimated that at 40 per cent equity and 17 per cent guaranteed return on these projects would entail annual payments of $2.4 billion from the current account.

But the details showed that the equity is 25 per cent while the return is as high as 34.55 per cent. So far, National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved tariffs for eight CPEC energy projects, said Safeer Ahmad, Director Finance of Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB).

Pakistan has approved 30.65 per cent return on Equity for 660MW Engro Powergen Thar coal-II project. The project cost is $995.4 million and the sponsors have taken $746.55 million loan at almost 6 per cent interest rate. The project got tariff of Rs8.5 per unit.

The government did not approve a separate policy for CPEC energy projects as these plants are set up under the existing energy policies, said Ahsan Iqbal, Minister for Planning and Development, at the floor of the Senate.

The government gave 27.2 per cent return on equity to 1320MW Port Qasim Power Plant. The total cost of the project is $1.92 billion and the sponsors have arranged $1.44 billion loan at 6 per cent interest rate.

The 1320MW Thar Coal power plant by Shanghai Electric Power got the maximum return on equity at 34.49 per cent. The total project cost is $1.92 billion and the sponsors have obtained $1.44 billion loan at 6 per cent interest rate. However, the 1320MW Hubco Coal power, being built in collaboration with China Power Hub, having same cost and debt-equity ratio would get 27.2 per cent return on equity.

The 330MW Thar Energy Limited project, having $497.7 million cost, would attract 30.65 per cent return on equity. The sponsors have got $373.3 million loan.

Pakistan, China to build 350MW coal power plant in Karachi

The 1320MW Sahiwal coal power project would get 27.2 per cent return on equity and the sponsors have obtained $1.44 billion loan, according to Ministry of Water and Power.

Omer Rasul said that the CPEC energy projects were in IPP mode and there was no public financing involved. He said that the average tariff of coal-based power plant was Rs8.3 per unit. However, energy experts said that the actual tariff was far higher than this, as the NEPRA calculated the tariff at 85% plant capacity.

The 870MW Suki Kinari hydro project, having $1.7 billion cost would get 17 per cent internal rate of return. The project will be completed by obtaining $1.3 billion loan at 6 per cent interest rate. The 720MW Karot hydro power project will also get 17 per cent internal rate of return. Its debt-equity ratio is 80-20 and the company has got $1.4 billion loan to complete it.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1327172/windfall-chinese-coal-fired-projects/
 

lcafanboy

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"GAYI BHAINS PAANI MAI"

The great Pakistan-China honeymoon ENDS.

And now Pakistanis will be forced to sell their country bit by bit just like the above example where they are forced to provide windfall gains on coal-fired projects to China.

China will be their new "East INDIA CO." Fun begins for India soon.

@Zarvan and all our specialist terrorist panel.
 

Willy2

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@lcafanboy

If separesist movement gear up , then surely Chinese army going to set foot on pak soil .
Just like their army is now in South Sudan protecting it's heavy investment in South Sudanese oil aset. Since the fall of Gadaffi and watching all it's investment vanished in Libya , Chinese politician haunted by regional instability .
Thats why they are now mad with Modi and India , as they fear that we going to use tribes and other asset the settle the fate of CPEC , it's the reason too that they madly want taliban in Afg and lure it's new slave Russia to gather soft-power pressure which china still lack. .
 

LordOfTheUnderworlds

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All the freedom movements in Sindh, Balochistan and Karachi should officially declare that the independent Sindh, Balochistan and Karachi will not recognize loans given to oppressive colonial state of Pakistan in the name of CPEC or as a military aid. They should send official letters to UN declaring so.
There is no reason they should carry burden of debt of occupier Pakistan. They should make their legal stand clear from now itself.
 
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Bornubus

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As long as Pak has nukes with it not even a single province will be able to secede not even Balochistan. Otherwise India would've annexed POK and Gilgit Baltistan long ago.
 

roma

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"GAYI BHAINS PAANI MAI" The great Pakistan-China honeymoon ENDS.
And now Pakistanis will be forced to sell their country bit by bit just like the above example where they are forced to provide windfall gains on coal-fired projects to China.
China will be their new "East INDIA CO." Fun begins for India soon.
@Zarvan and all our specialist terrorist panel.
FAT HOPES !!! ( addressed to ccp-prc-china )
pak is in some disarray but pak aint stupid
everybody including these days even a kid knows the meaning of defaulting on a loan
Do you ( or anyone else ) mean to tell us that pak didnt figure the possibility of defaulting ?
i saying they were fully aware of it , plus the ways to siphon off to private accounts and remain immune to any legal action.

Not if it happens , but rather when it happens , ccpprcchina is gonaa get put in place LIKE NEVER BEFORE
they will also have to swallow it because if they give it a high profile, then their muslim populations , especially uyghurstan province of ccpprcchina will be energised by the "success" of their pak brothers in making fool of ..........

pak is not developed neither in economy nor science but they know a couple of tricks or two and ccpprchina is gonna learn the "nice" way

if as a result other provinces refuse to honour the debts ( and why should they ) and so they decide to split, i dont think china has the manpower to occupy all those areas especially with popular uprisings


@lcafanboy

If separesist movement gear up , then surely Chinese army going to set foot on pak soil .
Just like their army is now in South Sudan protecting it's heavy investment in South Sudanese oil aset. Since the fall of Gadaffi and watching all it's investment vanished in Libya , Chinese politician haunted by regional instability .
Thats why they are now mad with Modi and India , as they fear that we going to use tribes and other asset the settle the fate of CPEC , it's the reason too that they madly want taliban in Afg and lure it's new slave Russia to gather soft-power pressure which china still lack. .
this is why it is crucial that Trump engage prcchina in SCS and eastern naval areas to reduce their available manpower in have presence in pak provinces

basically it is a Harvard U case study in how not to invest

IN addition to ALL the above the prcchina economy is due to go down and some say as a burst bubble ..... if that is so - then how do they finance all these foreign occupy expeditions ?
ccpprchina may be tough guys but they are by no means super-human

as we shall shortly see !""!!

@IndianHawk @Willy2 @Neo @Zarvan @mussalman

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Tarun Kumar

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Pakistan is an international parasite state. Wise people in India (Hindu leaders like Lala Lajpat rai) realized that while dealing with pre-partition Muslim league leaders which is why partition was fully backed by hindu leaders. We need to be in wait and watch mode while simultaneously strengthening our capability.
 

lcafanboy

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http://dailytimes.com.pk/features/19-Feb-17/hail-to-the-new-master

By Syed Muhammad Saad

Hail to the new master
The year is 2050. Pakistan is lined with motorways and railroads. Highways begin at the head of the country in Khunjerab and reach all the way to its tail in Gwadar. Every major power hub of the country has a power plant dedicated to it. Industrial parks are found at the outskirts of major cities. The cities have changed too. City skylines are lined with huge malls and skyscrapers housing multinational corporations. City markets are filled in excess with all kinds of services. The country is replete with economic activity. Pakistan, with its plethora of infrastructural facilities, has become what people, mostly politicians, had envisioned in their wildest dreams. And let us not forget the crown jewel. The icing on the cake. The cherry on top. Gwadar. Gwadar’s cityscape is no different than that of Shanghai or Dubai. Gwadar port exudes an aura of a thriving machine, at the epicentre of a massive manufacturing system. Many perceive it as having surpassed Dubai in terms of economic value. Its deep water port seemingly has more traffic than Dubai, Mumbai, Singapore. Pakistan is thought by many to have become a regional economic superpower. All is well. But is it?

All is not well. The reality behind this façade of economic development and political stability in the country is quite different. What lies behind this is quite bitter as opposed to the superficial image of economic prosperity portrayed by our skyscraper filled skylines. It is a truth that many do not want to speak of or write about. People who do intend to disseminate information about the actual politico-economic reality of the country face opposition from the general narrative prevalent among the economists within the country and those outside it. Reports by international ranking agencies rank Pakistan as one of the largest economies in the region. Such reports are used by the government, for political purposes, to suppress the truth and portray the country as a regional economic superpower. The majority of people have swallowed this narrative and the propaganda spread by the government to augment it. Many Pakistanis like to refer to the country as the Fifth Asian Tiger now. Anyone who says otherwise is seen as a foreign agent and a traitor, which does not come as a major surprise, as the art of terming people who speak the truth as traitors is a century old now. Many a times, journalists who talk about this issue are arrested on false charges. With blatant opposition from both the government and the blinded masses, and the fact that people are content with the false reality they are in, the unnerving truth remains buried deep down.

What is this truth that the government is trying to mask? What is this dark secret that the government has managed to hide, but which is whispered quietly among people who dare? What is this truth that the government has coated over with its lies to blind the country? It is the fact that we were deceived. We were misled by our leaders. We were fooled. Fooled by a dear friend of ours. This friend had always portrayed itself to have our best interests at heart. This friend, with whom we thought we had a friendship higher than the highest mountains, deeper than the deepest oceans, and sweeter than the sweetest honey, fooled us. This friend gave us a medicine that he claimed was the panacea for all our ills. But through that medicine, he enslaved us and it is a kind of slavery whose shackles of domination cannot be thrown off easily. The dear friend was China. And the medicine was CPEC.

A few decades back, our country was in a perilous state. We were deemed an economic failure by many. Our industries were falling apart. Unemployment was rife. Power shortage had become the bane of our existence. The solution to all our problems was given to us by our dear friend. China promised to build an economic corridor through our country. The economic corridor would include highways, pipelines, power plants, industrial parks, and a road connecting Pakistan’s north to its south. We wholeheartedly accepted the idea of CPEC, like a sick person desperately seeking a medicine. Due to our poor, economically miserable state, coupled with our obsession with infrastructure and our misguided perception that roads and buildings signify development, we fully swallowed this idea. And hence began our downward spiral into slavedom. Again.

We were drilled with the notion that the realization of CPEC would transform us into a self-sustaining entity able to stand on its own legs. We were not aware that this very same CPEC would break our legs. That it would bend us before someone who was doling out gifts wrapped in their concealed desire for economic imperialism. We were told that China would give us loans to finance a large number of infrastructural, energy and industrial projects. It is beyond me what went through the minds of economists and statesmen at the time that they were unable to understand that this was a project financed by a huge amount of loans. I cannot possibly comprehend that with Pakistan’s public debt of $180 billion at the time the project was in its initial stages, why did we agree to burden ourselves with $50 billion in addition. Why did we not understand that the loans we were taking for these projects amounted to a value that even our total public debt should not have been?

All that the enlightened economists at the time could say to critics was that they did not understand development. That they did not understand how debt worked. That these are ‘soft’ loans. That their interest rate is minimal compared to the prevailing interest rate. No one however realized that a ‘soft loan’ is a loan nonetheless, that even if interest was totally waived off, the amount of the loan in itself was humungous. But sadly we were convinced that these projects would generate foreign investment that would boost our economies. And that the revenue generated from these economic activities would pay back everything. Build-operate-transfer had become the slogan of economists at that time. Their narrative was that the Chinese would build all the projects, operate them, and transfer projects back as their debt is paid. Well, decades have passed. The Chinese did build those projects. They did operate these projects. But they never transferred a majority of those projects to us. It was simply because we haven’t been able to pay back that debt. Now, most of these projects are owned by the Chinese companies. Industries, power plants, even all these highways are operated by the Chinese. Recently, some lawmaker made an allegation that the transport tax we were promised years back is collected by Chinese companies that operate these highways. Pakistani entities do have a share in the companies that operate or work on CPEC, but these are minor shares. Our status is just like that of a parasite feeding on a large organism. We are in this situation because we could not generate the revenue to pay back the gigantic amount of debt incurred to finance these projects. How could we? We never owned the projects. What we owned was our minimal share as compared to that of our debt-financiers. Pakistani entities owned a stake in CPEC ventures that generated revenues which were as meagre as the share that they had in those ventures. So, we never had a way to generate enough revenue in order to pay back the loans. And our inability to pay back that debt has prevented us from actually reaping the benefits of CPEC.

Although CPEC brought in a lot of investment in the form of foreign investors like MNCs, but as is the case with every developing country with capitalist corporate entities present in it, the revenue generated is flown out of the country. What CPEC managed to do was provide a fertile ground to these foreign entities and a route for China to send its goods abroad. And the vast presence of Chinese goods and companies in Pakistan has been detrimental to the local industry. Pakistan is not only a passageway for the Chinese, but also a dumping ground for their low quality goods. The Chinese economic presence has suffocated us. The whole corridor, from the roads to the plants to the port is technically like a tentacle that rings through Pakistan’s land right to its tail. A tentacle of the octopus that is the Chinese economic imperialism. An arm that they dug through Pakistan to solidify their economic hegemony in the region and in the wider world.

This economic supremacy of the Chinese has also transformed the political setup in Pakistan. The vast economic influence in turn calls for political influence at a similar scale. People have started feeling that Chinese influence is seeping into our political circles. Many of the decisions made by our politicians seem to uphold Chinese interests. Taxes being waived off for Chinese companies and traffic, Chinese companies not being scrutinized and regulated are a few examples of the Chinese having a free reign in our country as our politicians look the other way.

Another way in which our slavery has manifested itself in the economic arena is the Chinese domination in the job arena. CPEC projects caused an influx of Chinese people into the country. Resultantly, majority of these ventures are operated by the Chinese. All the higher officials of these companies are Chinese. The lower jobs are reserved for our graduates. It’s like how Pakistanis were treated in Dubai. Now Pakistanis get a similar treatment in their own country.

CPEC has also given the Chinese politicians and officials a reason to feel that we owe them. After all, they ‘transformed’ our country into a hustling bustling hub of gigantic malls and wide highways. And this is why they feel entitled to a higher status than the common citizens of Pakistan. Interactions between Chinese officials and Pakistani people in public exhibit an aura of condescension and patronisation on part of the Chinese officials. Recently, a Chinese diplomat misbehaved with a law enforcement official and beat him up. The story goes that his guards also fired at the official. But strangely, the matter was brushed under the carpet by the government. No action was taken against the diplomat. Times are eerily reminiscent of the era when Americans used to manhandle our citizens. Maybe someday we will witness a Chinese Raymond Davis.

How naïve were we? How did we not realize that this would happen? Maybe we were ignorantly optimistic. Maybe we were swept away by the promises of the ruling government of the time. Our gullible selves were implanted with the notion that CPEC would benefit Pakistan and not the entity that financed those projects, built those projects, and now operated those projects. We were under the naive impression that CPEC would not only benefit the Chinese corporations that will operate their businesses here, but the wealth generated by those businesses would be shared among the common man like langar at a shrine on Thursday. Our deluded selves, which were greatly attracted to infrastructural ventures and were constrained by the inability to understand the importance of self-sustainability, wholeheartedly accepted this project.

We were seemingly oblivious to the fact that this was a ploy by the Chinese to economically enslave us as part of their campaign of economic imperialism. Two hundred years back, we were enslaved by the British through the East India Company. But that enslavement was aided by military conquests. Our knees were brutally and explicitly broken. Following our independence from the British, we were enslaved by the Americans. The Americans gave us enemies and made us fight their wars. Because of our innate desire to not ever become a self-sustaining entity, and the fact that we would get military aid in return for fighting their wars, we happily became their mercenaries. However, this time it was different. The British and the Americans were open bullies, forcefully making us do what they asked, but China was different. Our dear friend China had always portrayed itself to have our best interests at heart. Our enslavement at the hands of our dearest friend was subtle and discreet. When we had fallen down, and were weak and hopeless, this friend gave us a pat on the head and told us that everything would be okay. That he had a panacea for all our miseries. This friend, who was in reality a demon at the crossroads, gave us a medicine in the form of CPEC and told us that it would help us get up.

And here we are now. Years later. Still down. Still a slave. With our begging bowl in front of a new master. I don’t know what the future holds for us, whether we will ever be economically independent. What I know is that when China is done with us, it would dispose us off and go on to prey upon a new victim. But for now, we are their slaves. So all we can say is; Hail to the new master.
 

lcafanboy

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So, finally a few intellectuals are seeing reality and raising voice against CPEC and Chinese masters. But it would be of no use as average Pakistani s are fools who can't see their Army and politicians are selling Pakistan bit by bit to China just to show one up manship against India and can't come out of their animosity against India even if it means being slaves to Chinese.
 

Bornubus

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Nawaz Sharif should put Maryam Nawaz as sovereign debt she would defiantly fetch Porkistan few thousand $
 

YOSTYLE810

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terroorism wont let pakistan economy grow by a swift pace..
so they r going to be hand to mouth in near future
 

alphacentury

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As long as Pak has nukes with it not even a single province will be able to secede not even Balochistan. Otherwise India would've annexed POK and Gilgit Baltistan long ago.
Even USSR had nukes, far bigger than Pak. Had strong and influential army, what happened.

Realistically speaking there are two secession scenarios in Bharat khand.
Scenario A: Division of Pak into 3-4 parts. Time window is next 15-20 yrs, or even early if possible. after that wont be possible.

Scenario B: Secession of some territories out of India. Time window starts after 70-80 yrs. But, if scenario A is sucessful, scenario B will go out of the window.
 

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