Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

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was looking for something else, but found this..
their style of managing their economic affairs is still the same.

1981 paki annual development plan..

50% of annual budget was funded by external sources

146 crore - domestic resources
142 crore - external resources
View attachment 186482

Imports - 6 billion $
exports - 2.9 billion $

View attachment 186483View attachment 186484

As being said, Pak was always an aid driven country with no attempts to industrialise and educate the society. Pakistan was never ahead of India in any aspect and was always a sub modern community with GDP per capita then propped due to unforeseen factors. Like in case of Nigeria today which has a GDP per capita of $3k due to oil but living standards and development indicators at par those at $500.

May be you can scroll a bit back in time of 1960s and check out for such data then too to debunk? Pakistanis love to claim that Pak was some kind of Asian tiger back then.
 

ezsasa

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As being said, Pak was always an aid driven country with no attempts to industrialise and educate the society. Pakistan was never ahead of India in any aspect and was always a sub modern community with GDP per capita then propped due to unforeseen factors. Like in case of Nigeria today which has a GDP per capita of $3k due to oil but living standards and development indicators at par those at $500.

May be you can scroll a bit back in time of 1960s and check out for such data then too to debunk? Pakistanis love to claim that Pak was some kind of Asian tiger back then.
that 1960's thing is based on some koreans came to look at paki financial systems, nothing much beyond that. inter-governmental study committee happen all the time in all countries.

just because german FM came to our election commission and took a presentation, we don't say we taught ze germans how to run elections :pound:
 

AVERAGE INDIAN

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Indus Motors shuts down production plant in Pakistan on delay in import approvals


Indus Motors Company (IMC), the maker of Toyota vehicles, has decided to shut down its production plant in the country from December 20-30, citing a delay in import approvals from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

In a letter addressed to the general manager of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, the IMC management said that the central bank had introduced a new mechanism for obtaining prior approval for the import of “CKD kits and components of passenger cars (HS Code 8703 Category)” for the auto sector.

“The aforesaid delay in the approvals for the company and vendors has created hurdles in the import and clearance of consignments for raw materials and components of the company.

“This has resulted in insufficient inventory levels and consequently has created an adverse impact on the supply chain and production activities,” the letter stated, adding that the company was hence unable to continue its production activities.

Earlier, a Dawn report said that auto assemblers had to undertake non-production days after May 20 onwards due to restrictions imposed by the SBP through which the bank introduced a mechanism of prior approval from SBP for the import of a few goods including CKDs.

Assemblers said that the decision had been causing a delay in payments to foreign suppliers thus creating huge business risk for local industry.

“These restrictions have so far delayed the foreign payments of about $25m resulting in loss of investor’s confidence in the Pakistani market, and any further delays in the approvals by SBP would result in the loss of $80m contribution to the exchequer,’’ they added.

They said development activities for various new models were in the process across the industry. For new technology vehicles and parts development, the assemblers and vendors need to import machinery, molds, tools and fixtures. For the smooth development of local parts, the trial activities are to be conducted months before the start of mass production.

 

ezsasa

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Both Goldman Sach and Credit Suisse have failed multiple time in prediction of national economies in a decade, leave alone 50-60 years which are simply unpredictable.

Goldman Sach in this estimate has assumed natural slowdown & decline of Chinese, Indian & Southeast economies (expecting their replacement in global economies like Asia was to west) and at the same time has assumed Asia Pacific like economic growth in Bangladesh, Pakistan, middle east and Sub Sahara Africa assuming that they will expand swiftly & takeover markets like South Korea, Japan, China, India or Vietnam ignoring the fact economic complexities of these China, Japan, SKOR, India & SE Asia were high since beginning as they tried to industrialise themselves from day 1 of independence which is not the case with Pakistan or Africa.

So the gap between GDP per capitas of Pakistan and India will not be just 3-4 times as GS predicts. It would have crossed 10-12 times.
here's the list from that report
they must have made a radical assumption that fossil fuel will be an irrelevant factor by 2075, fifty years from now.

i'd say iran has more chances to be on that list than pakiland, iranian society have necessary scientific temperament and ingenuity. it would hardly take a few decades for iran to be a good economy if they let go of being a theocratic state.
Screenshot 2022-12-26 at 9.08.20 PM.png



honorary mentions of old threads from DFI

Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

https://defenceforumindia.com/threa...6th-largest-economy-by-2050-pwc-report.78422/

Pakistan's economy better than India's: Bloomberg

 

Anandhu Krishna

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here's the list from that report
they must have made a radical assumption that fossil fuel will be an irrelevant factor by 2075, fifty years from now.

i'd say iran has more chances to be on that list than pakiland, iranian society have necessary scientific temperament and ingenuity. it would hardly take a few decades for iran to be a good economy if they let go of being a theocratic state.
View attachment 187313


honorary mentions of old threads from DFI

Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

https://defenceforumindia.com/threa...6th-largest-economy-by-2050-pwc-report.78422/

Pakistan's economy better than India's: Bloomberg

Indonesia is going to be a problem. Another reason to buildUp the Navy.
 

djrandomwalker

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. These guys are again going to use india and Taliban card to get money from china and usa. They had 6% GDP growth last year and ours was 8.9.They also had small discovery of oil&gas yesterday. Contrary to the popular opinion, i think they will be fine. Gareeb will be hit, but when did pak elites care about them.
 

The Juggernaut

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Dollar outflow
Editorial Published December 28, 2022 Updated about 10 hours ago

THERE has been a consistent, significant outflow of dollars from Pakistan to Afghanistan ever since the US froze the war-ravaged country’s reserves following the Taliban takeover in summer last year. Until then, Afghanistan had been a notable exporter of dollars — poured into its economy by the US — to Pakistan for years. Thus, the reversal of Afghan fortunes has had a considerable impact on Pakistan’s weakening external sector, as stressed by the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan on Monday.
The association has said that the large-scale, illegal outflow of the greenback to Afghanistan, along with other much-discussed factors such as the trade and current account deficits and diminishing multilateral and bilateral inflows, has eroded Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves. The unhindered flow of the American currency to Afghanistan has created a crisis for Pakistan, the association officials said at a presser.
According to them, in addition to US sanctions on the Taliban regime, Kabul’s directions to its citizens to convert their large Pakistani rupee holdings into dollars or other foreign currencies had ramped up the greenback’s flow towards Afghanistan in recent months. According to Ecap, Afghans were no longer allowed to keep more than half a million worth of Pakistani currency, and any person found in violation of this order would be tried under the anti-money laundering laws.
That the State Bank restriction limiting the annual personal foreign exchange allowance to $6,000 for travellers hasn’t succeeded in arresting this illegal flow of foreign exchange underlines the corruption and weaknesses that define Customs control at the Pak-Afghan border. Surprisingly, no administrative measure adopted over the last one year to stop dollar smuggling across the country’s western frontier has produced the desired results, barring the occasional arrest for attempting to take out the hard currency in large amounts.
The illegitimate dollar outflow is one of the many factors that have brought Pakistan’s exchange rate under immense pressure in recent months and contributed to market dislocation, resulting in different exchange rates in the interbank and open markets. There are no two opinions on the need to plug the illegitimate dollar flows from the country to Afghanistan.
However, the dollar outflow is not restricted to Afghanistan, as shown by the arrest of three Gulf-bound passengers and the recovery of $60,000 from them. Pakistan needs to strengthen its controls at its land borders and ports to ward off the dollar’s flight from the country, be it in any direction.
Published in Dawn, December 28th, 2022
 

Bharatiya

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. These guys are again going to use india and Taliban card to get money from china and usa. They had 6% GDP growth last year and ours was 8.9.They also had small discovery of oil&gas yesterday. Contrary to the popular opinion, i think they will be fine. Gareeb will be hit, but when did pak elites care about them.
Economic problems won't push them to balkanization like some of our members would hope
but they surely would do a number on that terrorland.

The only way Paki can get out of this mess is to approach the IMF and beg. But the 400 IQ Finance Minister Dar rejected IMF's conditions and wants to go his own way.

Even if you put aside the fact that they raised less than 50% of the tax they have to raise to meet the IMF requirement, there's one big issue. IMF asked them to let the market decide pkr's true worth.

1. If they don't do it, IMF program won't happen.

2. If they do it, then PKR will fall from 225 to some 250 (or likely even worse).

That might not sound like much, but it's 11% depreciation in a single night. GDP in nominal terms will contract by 11%!

The wikipedia now shows Pak's GDP Is 376 Billion. (If someone knows how accurate this number is, inform us. Paki's 2021 gdp was 346. Assuming a high 4% growth this year, 2022 gdp will be $360 Billion).

This year's projected growth is less than 4% growth. This devaluation will push down gdp by 8%! $320 B~

What happens after prk is devalued? Exports will become competitive but Paki doesn't export much anyway. Imports will become way more expensive and Paki imports a lot.

The situation might stabilize if there's enough dollars or it likely will spiral out of control and things will take an ugly turn.

Critical imports will fall—> Production falls —> Exports fall —> Incoming reserves fall —> Repeat. The longer they try to keep the status quo, the greater the damage will be when it finally erupts.

Common Pakis will feel the heat in inflation and would struggle for food and basic amenities. Elites will actually gain more wealth if they have smartly invested in USD assets abroad. They can now buy way more in Pakistan.

Even if things really go south and shitshow happens, Paki won't balkanize. We need active intervention, planning from our side for that. If our RAW is even half as active as Paki claims, consider job done.
 

ovalpiston

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These guys are again going to use india and Taliban card to get money from china and usa. They had 6% GDP growth last year and ours was 8.9.They also had small discovery of oil&gas yesterday. Contrary to the popular opinion, i think they will be fine. Gareeb will be hit, but when did pak elites care about them.
China is not US to write Pakistan blank checks, every dollar it gives Pakis is in form of debt or in exchange for collateral of assets. Their GDP number is whatever some maulana saab sitting in a dark corner of SBP imagines it to be. And about the "oil & gas discovery", well, they have such "discoveries" almost once every year. In 2015, there were celebratory firing all over Pakistan when the country claimed to have discovered vast reserves of easily mineable gold, silver, copper etc in the Punjab province. 7 yrs later, the so-called reserves have turned to be as real as their infamous "car running on water and allah's blessings". Then a couple of years later they claimed to have found the "largest oil reserves to date" in Balochistan, said it was larger than the Kuwaiti oil reserves, and this discovery would change the trajectory of the nation! Again there were celebratory firing, hugs, interviews, press statements, samosas etc. This time too the news quietly died and the citizenry went back to selling donkeys and their leaders polishing their finest begging bowls to ask Saudi, UAE, Qatar etc for free oil and gas.
In 2019, it was Imran Khan's turn once again to give the awaam yet another "trajectory changing" news on vast oil and gas reserves, now off the coast of Karachi. Once again, this was supposed to change the fortune of the poverty stricken nation and its people, and they could finally become like their imaginary ancestors. After a week of frenzied and hysterical celebrations in media, the same old pattern repeated, and few months later the hungry, gullible peasants were told that their messiah Imran Khan was "misinformed" about the reserves!

Their tiny middleclass is thinking how best to get to UAE, KSA, Qatar, UK, Kaneda, Uganda, Rawanda, Timbuctoo etc their vast number of poor are thinking how to rob the middleclass and which corpse to fornificate with, and their rich are plotting the right time to exit the moth eaten nation to permanently settle in US, UK or UAE, such is the state of their nation!
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Indonesia is going to be a problem. Another reason to buildUp the Navy.
Indonesia has got geographical limitations. How can you make land available on a bunch of islands for industries and connect them all? By building deep sea ports in every island to do cost competitive shipping?
Indonesia already suffered currency crisis once. It can happen again.
But yes, I see ASEAN overall as a solid competitor. I don’t think we will see any military confrontation with Indonesia. They are not thinking that way. If anything they will partner with us as A&N islands are right next door. Myanmar is the wild card and I hope they open up and let India connect with SE Asia cost effectively. India needs to get stricter with Myanmar to open up transport corridors and ports. Buy out the Sittwe port and land needed to connect to Mizoram. Make these sovereign Indian territories. Myanmar is wasting all this land and port access by doing nothing , no development or trade.
You can drive from Guwahati to Singapore.
 

Indx TechStyle

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'No other option' but to implement IMF deal: Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif
'No other option' but to implement IMF deal: Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Prime Minister
Shehbaz Sharif has said that his government has “no other option” but to implement the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme to revive the cash-starved economy.
He regretted that if the government wanted to give any subsidy in any sector, it had to go to the IMF "which is a factor and a painful reality", the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan quoted Sharif as saying during a meeting on Tuesday.
He said the coalition government never wanted to transfer the burden of price hikes to the people but added that the country would have to implement the IMF programme as “they had no other option”.
The prime minister also said that the agreement with the IMF was blatantly breached by the Imran Khan-led PTI government in the past.
Cash-strapped Pakistan revived a stalled USD 6 billion IMF programme this year which was initially agreed upon in 2019 but is finding it hard to meet the tough conditions of the Washington-based global lender. There are reports that the IMF may not release more funds under the programme until the pledges made by the government are met.
Pakistan and the IMF had a round of engagement on November 18 but could not finalise a schedule for formal talks on the overdue ninth review.
The IMF board in August approved the seventh and eighth reviews of Pakistan's bailout programme, allowing for a release of over USD 1.1 billion.
The much-needed bailout package from the IMF helped Pakistan avert an imminent default, amidst the persisting political uncertainty and the devastating floods that have displaced more than 33 million people.
Shehbaz also said that they had devised a plan to immediately convert all the federal government entities' buildings to solar power by April next year to slash the country's fuel import bill of around USD 27 billion.
Unveiling further details, the prime minister said that the procedures for conversion of solar power should be fast-tracked as they had set April 2023 as the timeline for the implementation of this plan.
He also urged all the relevant authorities and stakeholders to complete the required process by the end of April next year and meet the timeline which had been set.
“Consider it as our political, social, national and religious duty to implement it as soon as possible,” he opined.
“It is the only option for our survival as a nation,” he added.
The prime minister said with these urgent measures, they would be able to generate 300 MW to 500 MW of cheap power, thus reducing the import bill worth billions of dollars each year.
The prime minister said that the process for the generation of 10,000 MW solar power in the country had already commenced and such a conversation by the federal government buildings would be the first phase.
Enumerating the economic challenges faced by the country due to skyrocketing fuel and gas prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he said that developing countries like Pakistan had to bear the brunt.
He said under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), coal and gas-fired projects were completed by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government in 2015 to overcome 20 hours of crippling power outages in the country.
Pakistan is in need of funds to bolster its struggling economy, amplified by devastating floods that affected the country's agriculture and infrastructure in recent months.
On December 23, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar held a virtual meeting with the IMF mission chief, Nathan Porter, aimed at finding a common ground to address the power sector issues, the Express Tribune newspaper reported.
The power sector has become the biggest stumbling block in the way of the 9th IMF review mission, which is the prerequisite for the approval of the next loan tranche of over USD 1.1 billion.
As per the revised schedule, the IMF board was supposed to approve the 9th review and release of the tranche by November 3.
However, due to Pakistani authorities' failure to meet the programme conditions for the 9th review, the global lender has not yet dispatched a mission to Pakistan.
The IMF is seeking a clear roadmap for the power sector, taxation and addressing any fiscal imbalances due to three key factors – higher than agreed circular debt during the current fiscal year, higher than agreed primary budget deficit and expenses on flood rehabilitation and reconstruction, the report quoted the sources as saying.
 

Kshatriya87

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here's the list from that report
they must have made a radical assumption that fossil fuel will be an irrelevant factor by 2075, fifty years from now.

i'd say iran has more chances to be on that list than pakiland, iranian society have necessary scientific temperament and ingenuity. it would hardly take a few decades for iran to be a good economy if they let go of being a theocratic state.
View attachment 187313


honorary mentions of old threads from DFI

Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

https://defenceforumindia.com/threa...6th-largest-economy-by-2050-pwc-report.78422/

Pakistan's economy better than India's: Bloomberg

One small flaw in predictions for 2075, it assumes that pakistan will still exist then.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Power consumption in Porkland is already super low. Probably Porkis have not taken a bath in weeks. Floods impact is still there but the US have $200 million for Bilawali activism and not flood relief. IMF wants them to go even lower and not consume power at all or just die off in the millions? 80% of the population should be ok with it as they live in caves anyway and will pr won’t live beyond 50 anyways, thanks to Indian Army, BSF, TTA, TTP, BLA, SRA, IRG, Predators, blue on blue action etc . But the tiny 15% middle class and 5% elites?
IMF = Islamic Madarchods Fucked?
 

thebakofbakchod

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Swesh

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Published December 30, 2022 Updated about 3 hours ago




29

LISTEN TO ARTICLE1x1.2x1.5x
KARACHI: With the expected IMF tranche still nowhere to be seen, State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves on Thursday further declined by $294 million to $5.8 billion — their eight years’ low — making it even more difficult for the country to repay its foreign debts.
The country has been facing a worrisome scenario as the reserves are not enough to service its huge foreign debt.
Though Finance Minister Ishaq Dar insists Pakistan will not default, the situation on the ground hardly supports his assertions.



The central bank’s foreign exchange reserves have been persistently falling since the beginning of FY23. Analysts and experts paint a gloomy picture for the state of economy as they believe that the country is close to default. They are not simply ready to buy the finance minister’s statement on default.
Since the change of government in Islamabad earlier this year, the SBP’s foreign exchange reserves have been falling and the few inflows over this period have proved to be too little to meet heavy payments. In April, when the Imran-led PTI government was replaced by the Shehbaz-led PDM government, the reserves stood at $10.5bn as compared to $5.8bn on Dec 23.

Experts reluctant to accept Dar’s ‘optimism’

The fear of default is also evident from the exchange rate instability which has eroded the value of local currency against all the major currencies, particularly the US dollar. A US dollar, which was sold at Rs180 in April, traded at Rs226 in the inter-bank market on Thursday. Yet, the greenback has almost vanished from the open market over the last couple of months. Worse, a grey market has emerged due to the shortage of American dollar which is offering a dollar for Rs260 to Rs270, against the inter-bank rate of Rs226.

This significant difference in the rates has already started affecting the remittances coming through official banking channels with inflows witnessing a falling trend.

Approximately, Pakistan is losing about $300m remittance per month. Bankers said the low exchange rate being managed by the State Bank artificially has diverted this $300m to the illegal grey market. Currency experts said if this trend continues then more remittances would go to the grey market and the country would lose about $4bn at the end of the current fiscal FY23.

The poor economic growth has already slashed the foreign direct investment in the country as it received just $430m during July-Nov FY23, compared to $885m in the same period last year — a decline of 51 per cent.

All stakeholders, except the foreign minister🤣🤣, were found to be extremely worried about the weakening health of foreign exchange reserves. They said the finance minister must announce that he had arranged payments to be made for the debt servicing. Neither China nor Saudi Arabia has so far announced that they are going to help save Pakistan from default.

The State Bank reported that the country’s overall reserves were $11.707bn, including $5.88bn of the commercial banks.

Published in Dawn, December 30th, 2022
 

ezsasa

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Published December 30, 2022 Updated about 3 hours ago




29

LISTEN TO ARTICLE1x1.2x1.5x
KARACHI: With the expected IMF tranche still nowhere to be seen, State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves on Thursday further declined by $294 million to $5.8 billion — their eight years’ low — making it even more difficult for the country to repay its foreign debts.
The country has been facing a worrisome scenario as the reserves are not enough to service its huge foreign debt.
Though Finance Minister Ishaq Dar insists Pakistan will not default, the situation on the ground hardly supports his assertions.



The central bank’s foreign exchange reserves have been persistently falling since the beginning of FY23. Analysts and experts paint a gloomy picture for the state of economy as they believe that the country is close to default. They are not simply ready to buy the finance minister’s statement on default.
Since the change of government in Islamabad earlier this year, the SBP’s foreign exchange reserves have been falling and the few inflows over this period have proved to be too little to meet heavy payments. In April, when the Imran-led PTI government was replaced by the Shehbaz-led PDM government, the reserves stood at $10.5bn as compared to $5.8bn on Dec 23.

Experts reluctant to accept Dar’s ‘optimism’

The fear of default is also evident from the exchange rate instability which has eroded the value of local currency against all the major currencies, particularly the US dollar. A US dollar, which was sold at Rs180 in April, traded at Rs226 in the inter-bank market on Thursday. Yet, the greenback has almost vanished from the open market over the last couple of months. Worse, a grey market has emerged due to the shortage of American dollar which is offering a dollar for Rs260 to Rs270, against the inter-bank rate of Rs226.

This significant difference in the rates has already started affecting the remittances coming through official banking channels with inflows witnessing a falling trend.

Approximately, Pakistan is losing about $300m remittance per month. Bankers said the low exchange rate being managed by the State Bank artificially has diverted this $300m to the illegal grey market. Currency experts said if this trend continues then more remittances would go to the grey market and the country would lose about $4bn at the end of the current fiscal FY23.

The poor economic growth has already slashed the foreign direct investment in the country as it received just $430m during July-Nov FY23, compared to $885m in the same period last year — a decline of 51 per cent.

All stakeholders, except the foreign minister🤣🤣, were found to be extremely worried about the weakening health of foreign exchange reserves. They said the finance minister must announce that he had arranged payments to be made for the debt servicing. Neither China nor Saudi Arabia has so far announced that they are going to help save Pakistan from default.

The State Bank reported that the country’s overall reserves were $11.707bn, including $5.88bn of the commercial banks.

Published in Dawn, December 30th, 2022
any idea on how to find out how much forex Indian commercial banks have with them?

was trying to get this info, not sure where to find a consolidated number.
 

FalconSlayers

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any idea on how to find out how much forex Indian commercial banks have with them?

was trying to get this info, not sure where to find a consolidated number.
We don't publish it to make our reserves look big like Pakis have to to make their reserves look big and have higher chances of getting a loan.
 

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