Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

Imaxxx

"Shaktimev Jayate" - Strength Alone Triumphs
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Economic self-jihad

1651156910934.png

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1687186/govt-raises-t-bill-yields-by-up-to-129bps

Porki govt is borrowing from the market at an insane 15%! When economy is growing at 4%!

Contrast that with India - 6 mo T-Bill rate=4.43%. Makes sense when the economy is growing at~8-9%
1651157833283.png

Source: RBI

A day will come when porki interest payments alone will exceed revenues
 

indiatester

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Economic self-jihad

View attachment 153299
Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1687186/govt-raises-t-bill-yields-by-up-to-129bps

Porki govt is borrowing from the market at an insane 15%! When economy is growing at 4%!

Contrast that with India - 6 mo T-Bill rate=4.43%. Makes sense when the economy is growing at~8-9%
View attachment 153302
Source: RBI

A day will come when porki interest payments alone will exceed revenues
Earlier I would have thought that the western powers and the ummah will step in and save the pakis. Pakis are immensely useful to keep India in check, have a backdoor route to china, and to have a well trained army acceptable for most of the ummah.
But now, with the Russian war, them (western powers) having to pay the costs of arming Ukraine, spiraling inflation etc, they may not be able to do so easily.
I still think they will find an underhand way to push the due day for later, or lessen the punishment for missing payments.
 

ezsasa

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India should assist in this deal going thru..
======
Pakistan and Italy to sign 'Labour Agreement' soon which would facilitate tens of thousands of Pakistani workers to migrate to Italy. Currently there are 200,000 Pakistanis (almost all workers) in Italy.

 

Butter Chicken

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India should assist in this deal going thru..
======
Pakistan and Italy to sign 'Labour Agreement' soon which would facilitate tens of thousands of Pakistani workers to migrate to Italy. Currently there are 200,000 Pakistanis (almost all workers) in Italy.

Mashallah. More Pakistaniyat in Europe just like Turkey 🇪🇺🇵🇰
 

Concard

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India should assist in this deal going thru..
======
Pakistan and Italy to sign 'Labour Agreement' soon which would facilitate tens of thousands of Pakistani workers to migrate to Italy. Currently there are 200,000 Pakistanis (almost all workers) in Italy.

Signing and giving visas to these morons are 2 different things. Italy is lacking people who can work in their farms especially in rural areas where there has been a exodus. In rural Italy houses are empty and mayors are putting them up for sale for 1 Euro so that more residents move in. Italians would rather import Eastern Europeans from Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine rather than Pakistan. Italians in general are nice but don't like Muslims who wear their religion on their sleeve. And the pay in Italy is abysmal. You are lucky to make 35K Euros and make ends meet in most sectors.
 

indiatester

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Toyota Fortuner in paki land now costs 1 crore paki rupees!!! .

https://propakistani.pk/2022/04/30/toyota-imc-increases-prices-for-the-third-time-in-2022/

Toyota IMC Increases Prices for the Third Time in 2022

By Waleed Shah | Published Apr 30, 2022 | 2:10 pm

Toyota Indus Motor Company (IMC) has increased the prices of its locally assembled vehicles for the third time this year, due to depreciating local currency, rising freight charges, and material costs.




Effective immediately, the new prices are as follows:


VariantsOld Price (Rs.)Revised Price (Rs.)Increase (Rs.)
Toyota Yaris
1.3 Gli M/T2,899,0003,039,000140,000
1.3 Gli CVT3,109,0003,249,000140,000
1.3 ATIV M/T3,059,0003,209,000150,000
1.3 ATIV CVT3,229,0003,379,000150,000
1.5 ATIV X M/T3,289,0003,449,000160,000
1.5 ATIV X CVT3,499,0003,659,000160,000
Toyota Corolla
Altis 1.6 M/T3,749,0003,909,000160,000
Altis 1.6 A/T3,929,0004,099,000170,000
Altis SE 1.6 A/T4,309,0004,509,000200,000
Altis 1.8 CVT4,299,0004,499,000200,000
Altis 1.8 Grande CVT Beige Interior4,649,0004,859,000210,000
Altis 1.8 Grande CVT Black Interior4,689,0004,899,000210,000
Toyota Hilux
Revo G 2.8 M/T7,659,0007,989,000330,000
Revo G 2.8 A/T8,029,0008,379,000350,000
Revo V 2.8 A/T8,839,0009,229,000390,000
Revo Rocco9,319,0009,729,000410,000
Toyota Fortuner
Fortuner G A/T9,499,0009,959,000460,000
Fortuner V A/T10,949,00011,459,000510,000
Fortuner Sigma 4 A/T11,489,00012,039,000550,000
Fortuner Legender12,099,00012,679,000580,000

The car maker has specified these terms and conditions for the latest hike:




  • Those who placed their orders before March 2022 will pay the old price.
  • Those who placed orders between March 23 and April 29 and are expecting deliveries on or before June 20 will pay the old price.
  • Those who have booked or will book new Toyota cars after the price hike will pay the new price.
  • Prices are exclusive of transportation charges.
More Price Hikes Expected

CEO of Toyota IMC Ali Asghar Jamali warned last month that due to global logistical challenges, increasing freight costs, and depreciating local currency, the price hikes will continue. True to his prediction, Toyota IMC did increase the prices of its vehicles, which will likely prompt other automakers to do the same.
 

SKC

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India should assist in this deal going thru..
======
Pakistan and Italy to sign 'Labour Agreement' soon which would facilitate tens of thousands of Pakistani workers to migrate to Italy. Currently there are 200,000 Pakistanis (almost all workers) in Italy.

What's with Italy? they had over 300K Chinese in just one state and now 200K pakis too there and getting more of them.
 

ezsasa

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What's with Italy? they had over 300K Chinese in just one state and now 200K pakis too there and getting more of them.
core of italy's problems emanate from their age demographics.

Screenshot 2022-05-02 at 1.01.17 PM.png


in 2018-19 governance situation was so bad that the country ran without an elected government and people were happy with bureaucrats running the affairs of the state.
 

The Juggernaut

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core of italy's problems emanate from their age demographics.

View attachment 153905

in 2018-19 governance situation was so bad that the country ran without an elected government and people were happy with bureaucrats running the affairs of the state.
Their political system is so unstable that after 1945, They have even more PMs than Pakistan and none of them completed full term.
 

indiatester

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https://www.dawn.com/news/1687666/crops-likely-to-suffer-as-water-crisis-boils-over
Crops likely to suffer as water crisis boils over

Ahmad Fraz KhanPublished May 1, 2022
1651734190061.png

A FARMER harvests wheat in his field near Peshawar. According to Irsa data, water supplies in the Kabul River are down to just 16,700 cusecs against a 10-year average of 41,200 cusecs. — PPI

LAHORE: The country’s persistent water crisis has taken a turn for the worse, as the cumulative river supplies dipped to 97,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs) on Saturday, taking the national shortage to a whopping 51 per cent against the 29pc calculated previously.
To put Saturday’s cumulative supplies in context, the figure was 121,000 cusecs on the same day (April 30) last year, whereas the five-year average for the day stands at 157,800 cusecs.
Even those 97,000 cusecs on Saturday represented an improvement of 11,000 cusecs over Friday when supplies were recorded at 86,000 cusecs.
Kabul River is the worst affected, with supplies down to just 16,700 cusecs against the 10-year average of 41,200 cusecs for the day. Besides, supplies from Chenab River stood at 12,300 cusecs against its historical average of 26,300 cusecs and from Jhelum River dipped to 31,500 cusecs against the average of 52,300 cusecs.
Irsa halves supply to Punjab and Sindh to pass on shortage
Passing on the shortages, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) supplied only 51,400 cusecs to Punjab against its demand of 105,500 cusecs and 32,600 cusecs to Sindh against its demand of 67,100 cusecs — meaning both federating units absorbing 51pc shortage.
“The Saturday shortage would translate into irrigation supplies in the next five to seven days in Punjab and 10 to 12 days in Sindh, playing havoc with cotton sowing, sugarcane and the entire range of the Kharif crops,” said an official of the Punjab irrigation department.
According to the Irsa data, the country on Saturday had 100,000 acre-feet in Mangla Lake against its capacity of 7.3 million acre-feet. As far as Tarbela Lake is concerned, it hit a dead level on Feb 22 and has not recovered in the last 67 days, leaving the country completely dependent upon run-of-river supplies that have now gone down by 51pc.
According to Irsa’s calculations, which already entailed 29pc shortages, the country should have received 8.6m acre-feet of water during April. What it actually got is 5.4m acre-feet — a loss of another 38pc.
“This is a downright disaster,” Syed Tahir Shah, a farmer, said, adding that both Mangla and Tarbela dams hitting dead levels in February would affect late Rabi and early Kharif seasons (February to April), meaning the entire range of crops would suffer during the quarter.
“It also means no water for final watering of wheat and cotton sowing,” he said. “In practical terms, it means pressure on food security (wheat) and major cash (cotton) crop and hence the country’s 70pc foreign exchange. Building new reservoirs is the only solution left for Pakistan to avoid slow financial death and an impending hunger crisis.”
Irsa spokesman Rana Khalid said weather patterns, particularly in the last few days, pointed to more trouble.
Patterns of drought and wet weeks were becoming quicker and nastier, with drought spells getting prolonged and wet cycles shorter, he said.
What made matters worse was a squeezing flood season, which used to start with a rise in temperatures in late March and start yielding a healthy amount of water (as shown by five- or ten-year averages) by early April and gained momentum in June and the pattern would last till September, he said.
“The traditional and heavy flood season now starts mid-July and ends mid-August. Limited storage means permanent water trouble. And since the problem is permanent, so should the solution be,” he said.
Published in Dawn, May 1st, 2022
 

FalconSlayers

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Pakistan’s savings and investment ratios are officially estimated to have declined as a percentage of the size of the overall economy — commonly called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — during the current fiscal year. Yet, GDP posted around 6 per cent growth — surpassing all domestic and external estimates.

According to the National Accounts Committee (NAC) that worked out the GDP growth rate for the current year at 5.97pc — the second-highest in four years after 6.1pc in FY18 — the investment-to-GDP ratio actually declined to 15pc against 15.2pc of last fiscal year and missed the 16pc target.

Similarly, the saving-to-GDP dropped to 11.1pc this year when compared to 14pc last year and missed the 15.3pc target by a wide margin of 4.2pc. This is a manifestation of the deteriorating current account deficit that now stands well above $13 billion in 10 months. These are clear signals that GDP growth was fueled by consumption and imports.

The fixed investment-to-GDP ratio also fell to 13.4pc this year against 13.6pc of last year. The current year target for fixed investment was set at 14.4pc. The major decline here was on account of the public investment-to-GDP ratio that stood at 3.4pc this year against a target of 4.4pc and even lower than last year’s 3.8pc.

Even the 3.4pc fixed investment-to-GDP ratio is susceptible to deterioration for the fact that these numbers were based on the budgeted public sector development programme which was drastically reduced.

Imports on the other hand have surged by more than 46pc in 10 months of the current year to $65.5bn against just 25pc growth in exports to about $26bn, leaving a massive trade gap of almost $40bn or 65pc higher than last year, resulting in deterioration of external account, fall in foreign exchange reserves and massive devaluation.

It did not come as a surprise but as a recall of the repeated boom and bust cycles the country has been accustomed to over the decades in the absence of structural reforms. The two-year painful stabilisation phase of negative growth amid the global health pandemic and resultant lockdowns was just over when Shaukat Tarin — Imran Khan’s fourth finance minister — decided to shift gears to high growth.

Red flags soon started to emerge about the usual culprits — rising imports much faster than exports and other foreign earnings, accompanied by the fiscal and current account deficits. The authorities downplayed concerns. Dr Reza Baqir, the state bank governor, even went to the extent of saying on August 13, 2021, that the current account deficit should be talked about with happiness because it was a sign of economic growth

He then estimated the current account deficit to be 2-3pc of GDP (maximum of $9.5bn) for the current fiscal against 6pc (about $19bn) in FY18. He believed that all short term economic indicators showed stabilisation had been achieved and the economy moved firmly into the growth mode — 4-5pc GDP growth rate. Such hopes were as short-lived as ever

Not long later on September 21, 2021, and within six months in office, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin confirmed concerns that the economy was overheating and announced cooling down measures like 100pc cash margins and regulatory duties to discourage non-essential imports

The overall revenues had improved by 45pc by exceeding the target by 24pc primarily because of increasing imports — a sign of growth and higher commodity prices, he believed at the time but conceded: “my concern is that it should not overheat to a level that creates exchange rate and balance of payment-related problems if the GDP growth rate exceeds above 5pc, we don’t want to jump to 6-7pc growth quickly that could be problematic and unsustainable

The damage had already been done. By December 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) squarely blamed the authorities for the challenges that had lost the gains so painfully and resiliently built along with the Covid-19 fight. “Economic activity has rebounded strongly on the back of waning Covid-19 infections and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. However, strong import growth — fueled by the macroeconomic policy mix, higher international commodity prices, and credit growth — has led to a marked deterioration of the external position. The current account deficit has widened, the rupee depreciated markedly and inflation remains persistently high”.

It went on to put on record that since the April 2021 review, programme implementation had been uneven: fiscal policy became increasingly expansionary and several key commitments reversed. The end of June commitments on the general government primary budget deficit and the non-intensification of exchange restrictions, non-modification of multiple currency practices, and zero new flow of State Bank of Pakistan credit to the government were missed. Moreover, several structural benchmarks were not met

In December though, the Tarin-led economic team conceded a number of prior actions to revive the fund programme through over Rs350bn fiscal adjustment through a supplementary budget, tighter monetary policy, and electricity tariff adjustments. It was too late but that too was quickly reversed on February 28 by then Prime Minister Imran Khan

No wonder then, the IMF glaringly recalled that “Pakistan had a long history of stop-and-go economic policies and weak implementation of structural reforms. This has resulted in elevated vulnerabilities and low investment and growth, which weigh on the population, including through high poverty incidence and weak development indicators”.

Pakistan is again at the doorsteps of the IMF for the revival and expansion of the programme. The cost of the one-step-forward-two-step-back approach to structural reforms for the nation and the country is much bigger every time and this time is no different. Many imports are already banned and fuel and electricity rates are on a massive rise to further skyrocket inflation already in double-digits
 

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