Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

hit&run

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The article above can only be written by Sushant Sareen.

The overtures compromised Indian establishment makes whenever Pakistanis are down; as a breather or to improve their outlook to positive which they then cash out as their strength must not be extended this time.

To every investment in Pakistan, the Indian military threat to resolve the pending regional disputes must get a mention as a risk of cost escalation, operational impediment, and the eventuality of poor returns in every proposal.

To make sure it happens we must objectively increase the political noises backed by aggressive military posturings, exercises with the automated military response requiring no political clearance that escalates above Pakistani tactile or strategic strikes (military or terror) done in J&K or elsewhere.

Also, India must inflict harm on their economy equivalent to the counterfeit money and illicit drugs they inject into the Indian economy and India respectively.

Recently a Pakistani module operating from Bangladesh was busted.

Furthermore, the area or individual contracts of exports must be targeted with better deals and improved quality.

Someone also mentioned IWT, but to me it looks like a humanitarian crisis victim card being handed over to Pakistanis known for their fake chest-beating on a platter. There is no need to touch things above strategic or close to counter-population level. But keep things simple.

They themselves dance off their rooftops shouting 'Disputed Territories'. We must make sure the dispute remains hot.

The trade and exports in particular are any nation's right to enterprise to outbid anyone or everyone. The direct and indirect market manipulation practices exercised within the set norms attract no challenges. The contracts Pakistan has secured with the EU and other states can still be bypassed given you create enough supply on cheaper rates that the importer starts to salivate seeing the margin to then dumb down any arrangements it has with Pakistan.

On military response, India lacks an automated, self-responding, institutional mechanism. Whatever mechanism we have is highly dependent on Political whim or it only operates in black and white or the lightest shade of grey erratically.

If the political whim is against the all-out war then it doesn't mean the tactical or sub-strategic response with or without deniability can not be done. Better visible, backed by strong propaganda.
 
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indiatester

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The article above can only be written by Sushant Sareen.

The overtures compromised Indian establishment makes whenever Pakistanis are down; as a breather or to improve their outlook to positive which they then cash out as stability must not be extended this time.

To every investment in Pakistan, the Indian military threat to resolve the pending regional disputes must get a mention as a risk of cost escalation, operational impediment, and the eventuality of poor returns in every proposal.

To make sure it happens we must objectively increase the political noises backed by aggressive military posturings, exercises with the automated military response requiring no political clearance that escalates above Pakistani tactile or strategic strikes (military or terror) done in J&K or elsewhere.

Also, India must inflict harm on their economy equivalent to the counterfeit money and illicit drugs they inject into the Indian economy and India respectively.

Recently a module operating from Bangladesh was busted.

Furthermore, the area or individual contracts of exports must be targeted with better deals and improved quality.

Someone also mentioned IWT, but to me it looks like a humanitarian crisis victim card being handed over to Pakistanis known for their fake chest-beating on a platter. There is no need to touch things above strategic or close to counter-population level. But keep things simple.

They themselves dance off their rooftops shouting 'Disputed Territories'. We must make sure the dispute remains hot.

The trade and exports in particular are any nation's right to enterprise to outbid anyone or everyone. The direct and indirect market manipulation practices exercised within the set norms attract no challenges. The contracts Pakistan has secured with the EU and other states can still be bypassed given you create enough supply on cheaper rates that the importer starts to salivate seeing the margin to then dumb down any arrangements it has with Pakistan.

On military response, India lacks an automated, self-responding, institutional mechanism. Whatever mechanism we have is highly dependent on Political whim or it only operates in black and white of lightest shade or grey erratically.

If the political whim is against the all-out war then it doesn't mean the tactical or sub-strategic response with or without deniability can not be done. Better visible backed by strong propaganda.
True.
There is a lot of reluctance from the armed forces in planning and executing contingency courses of action.
I remember around the URI time, the then Lt. Gen Deepender Hooda said that after the first surgical strikes across Myanmar, he was aware that he could be asked to conduct similar operations and started to prepare then.
Their thinking has been excessively defensive willing to take casualties in defence rather than cause injury and in offensive operations and be hit. This was one of his statements in an interview
“We had to kill terrorists, but hundred terrorists killed and one soldier left behind would have been a failure,” he said.
Thats not the mindset of a general who is capable of inflicting maximum damage to the enemy. It is that of a person who is afraid of even a single casualty and have his morale taken down which would percolate down.

Even when we look at the response to Feb27 incursion by Pakis, what was the deal with our IAF in not fielding a punishing response.

We don't have a set of our forces who specialize in maximizing damage the enemy. I only hear of strike cores and when need to take offensive action there, they are not where to be found.
I would say they must have both overt and covert options available. The hiding behind "political will" is a poor excuse.

Regarding the larger topic of stability in Pakistan, we should allow it and actually facilitate its break up. The current economic and security situation is pretty excellent for such action.
Former RAW chief Vikram Sood had once mentioned that water could be Pakistan's undoing. This was before the current economic crisis. By the time they get their act together in other spheres, the lack of water is going to hit them crippling them.
I'm eager to see how they deal with such large challenges.
 
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Concard

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what do you guys think about the restlessness in pakistan due to water scarcity, and when it will explode ??
Pakistan has many whammies up their bottoms. There is that water scarcity which is going to hit them in the face with global warming continuing unabated. There is that literacy rate which is decreasing in their population. They have now introduced religious education in their curriculum. Many millions of children aren't going to school. They are going to Madrassas. We all know where they end up in future. Then there is economic catastrophe with rising external debt every year. Even if today they make up their mind to focus on economy, clean up the mess and everything, Pakistan will be crippled for another 25 years.

I vividly remember after 26/11 how Pakistani news channels were saying their GDP is $200 billion and India's GDP is $1.2 Trillion, so India has more to lose if there was ever a war between them. Today in 2021 their GDP is just $280 billion. So in 13 years they have just added $80 billion in economic output. And if you think that is worse, guess what? They are projected to have a population of 300 million by 2040. All in all this terrorist nation will be crippled for the foreseeable future. They were beating their drums about CPEC and look where it has got them. It will be exciting how Chinese will deal with them now that USA is no longer in Afghanistan. They won't be getting any aid from USA. They will definitely be begging the Chinese. Given the thrifty Chinese attitude they will realize they are a costly vassal state to maintain.
 

hit&run

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True.
There is a lot of reluctance from the armed forces in planning and executing contingency courses of action.
I remember around the URI time, the then Lt. Gen Deepender Hooda said that after the first surgical strikes across Myanmar, he was aware that he could be asked to conduct similar operations and started to prepare then.
Their thinking has been excessively defensive willing to take casualties in defence rather than cause injury and in offensive operations and be hit. This was one of his statements in an interview

Thats not the mindset of a general who is capable of inflicting maximum damage to the enemy. It is that of a person who is afraid of even a single casualty and have his morale taken down which would percolate down.

Even when we look at the response to Feb27 incursion by Pakis, what was the deal with our IAF in not fielding a punishing response.

We don't have a set of our forces who specialize in maximizing damage the enemy. I only hear of strike cores and when need to take offensive action there, they are not where to be found.
I would say they must have both overt and covert options available. The hiding behind "political will" is a poor excuse.

Regarding the larger topic of stability in Pakistan, we should allow it and actually facilitate its break up. The current economic and security situation is pretty excellent for such action.
Former RAW chief Vikram Sood had once mentioned that water could be Pakistan's undoing. This was before the current economic crisis. By the time they get their act together in other spheres, the lack of water is going to hit them crippling them.
I'm eager to see how they deal with such large challenges.
Vikram Sood is speaking above his pay scale. He is not even talking about 1st effect leave alone 2nd or 3rd. This is the case with most of the so-called Indian analysts. I am glad the Indian establishment with its innate slow mobility has been non-commital to action on the ground which requires a lot of micro-managing on many fronts including Geo-Politics and internal politics of which is full of compromised actors who are now being cut to their size as we speak.

1. Do not touch the water. (The reason I have already mentioned).

2. On the economy: You either sabotage theirs or improve yours manifold. Both works, but later is far more deleterious against the target country which many analysts find counter-intuitive to understand. Not to mention, the investment in internal security is paramount in both cases.

The former can be subtle, put on low flame, with a good ambush set on but later must be put of steroid backed by reforms. The farmer's agitation and other reforms that got pulled down have links with our regional security calculus. The scums who came out on the streets must never be normalized back with us.

3. Agree with your military input backing regional politics or vise versa. Both are operating in isolation. If the political whim is an excuse then an honest analysis of our military capabilities becomes imperative to discuss. It is another can of worm which I won't like to discuss here.
 
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Spitfire9

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Such a poorly designed motorway. Apart from scenic beauty there is absolutely nothing to celebrate.

Ninja technique of converting a 4 lane highway into a 6 lane one. :rofl:
What is wrong with the design? Nothing to do with it being Pakistani, I hope. If it were identical but Indian, would you still be saying it was poorly designed?
 

Crazywithmath

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What is wrong with the design?
Pretty much everything. Faulty street marking, no paved shoulder, poor adjustment overall. It is not even a proper 6 lane highway.

This is how a well designed 6 lane highway would look like,

Screenshot_20211204-143927_Chrome.jpg


If it were identical but Indian, would you still be saying it was poorly designed?
Yep! Absolutely! Ask anyone with basic knowledge in highway engineering. While it is true that greenfield expressways and highways are generally well designed in India there certainly are instances of poor designing.
 

ezsasa

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Paki import data for Jul - Oct YoY

Notice the double jump in petroleum imports, quantity is similar but price doubled ,looks like arabs are asking paki gov to pay full price. No more deferred payments.
Price of crude is more or less the same in oct YoY

Imports:
Jul-Oct 2017 - 19 billion $
Jul-Oct 2018 - 19 billion $
Jul-Oct 2019 - 15 billion $
Jul-Oct 2020 - 15 billion $
Jul-Oct 2021 - 25 billion $
Screenshot 2021-12-04 at 9.40.28 PM.png
 

Tshering22

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I was watching this episode where Maj. Arya was discussing about Pakistan's coming implosion. While this is writing on the wall, an interesting point he mentioned is that the IMF or other international agencies likes the Paris Group who have lent billions to Pakistanis, could ask for nuclear assets as collaterals or even as payment.

Is that even possible? Can international agencies ask for nuclear weapons as compensation for unpaid interest & principal amounts?
 

IndianHawk

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I was watching this episode where Maj. Arya was discussing about Pakistan's coming implosion. While this is writing on the wall, an interesting point he mentioned is that the IMF or other international agencies likes the Paris Group who have lent billions to Pakistanis, could ask for nuclear assets as collaterals or even as payment.

Is that even possible? Can international agencies ask for nuclear weapons as compensation for unpaid interest & principal amounts?
Nope. Porky nukes aren't going anywhere anytime soon. And pakistan will be bailed our yet again because the world sees them as a lucrative future market of 220 million and growing numbers.

But they will have to clamp down on anti Western elements or atleast keep them under wraps.
 

indiatester

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Paki import data for Jul - Oct YoY

Notice the double jump in petroleum imports, quantity is similar but price doubled ,looks like arabs are asking paki gov to pay full price. No more deferred payments.
Price of crude is more or less the same in oct YoY

Imports:
Jul-Oct 2017 - 19 billion $
Jul-Oct 2018 - 19 billion $
Jul-Oct 2019 - 15 billion $
Jul-Oct 2020 - 15 billion $
Jul-Oct 2021 - 25 billion $
View attachment 123226
It also depends on when the contracts were made. Usually countries/companies make long term large contracts to have stability in the prices and usually get a discount. Those with little money, like the Pakis, go for the immediate need and have to end up paying a lot more smaller supplies.
Kinda like the richer person taking a bulk order getting a lower price and the poor having the pay through their nose for a smaller quantity.
 

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