Pakistan could collapse within six months

Vinod2070

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Joint covert actions against the Punjabi Taliban?

Before The Ice Melts The time has come for considering joint operations in the form of some of the Predators operating from bases in Indian territory and joint covert actions against the Punjabi Taliban. Such joint operations will be in the mutual interests of the two countries.
B. Raman

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The need for a regional counter-terrorism strategy to be spear-headed by India and the US for eradicating all terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani territory has been one of the themes of my writings and lectures in the last two years. Extracts from two of the articles written by me on this subject on October 11, 2008, and January 1, 2009, are annexed.

It has been my belief that unless and until the US takes the initiative for such a strategy focused on eradicating all terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani territory India will continue to bleed at the hands of jihadi terrorists spawned in Pakistan and the US will meet the same fate in Afghanistan as the erstwhile USSR did in the 1980s.

President Barack Obama’s strategy for the Af-Pak region is still unfolding in bits and pieces. A surge of 16,000 troops to start with and intensified Predator strikes on terrorist hide-outs and training camps in Pakistani territory are two components of this strategy, which are already under implementation. His administration has also been expanding the geographic and target spread of the Predator strikes. From North and South Waziristan and the Bajaur Agency in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the geographic area of the strikes has been extended to the Kurram Agency in the FATA. The Bannu area in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which was already targeted once by the Bush Administration, has been receiving more attention from the advisers of Obama.

The targets are also expanding. The initial targeting under the Bush Administration was mainly against the hide-outs and training camps of Al Qaeda and its associates such as the Afghan Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union, which is also an Uzbeck group with many Europeans in it. Under Obama, the targets have been expanded to cover the hide-outs and training camps of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in all these areas and of Gulbuddin Heckmatyar’s Hizbe-Islami in the Kurram Agency.

A report carried by the New York Times and reproduced by the Times of India of March 19, 2009, indicates that the Obama Administration is also examining the advisability of hitting at the hide-outs and training camps of the Afghan Taliban in Quetta and some other areas of Balochistan adjoining the border with Afghanistan. Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Neo Taliban, and his advisers are operating from sanctuaries in these areas.

In order to weaken the movement for Baloch independence , the late Gen.Zia-ul-Haq had got settled a large number of Afghan Pashtun refugees in these areas and given them Pakistani citizenship. It is in the midst of these pockets of citizens or residents of Afghan origin that the command and control of the Neo Taliban is located. Unless and until this command and control is targeted and eliminated, the US and other NATO troops will not be able to win the war against terrorism in the Af-Pak region.

Predator strikes on the sanctuaries of the Neo Taliban in the areas of Balochistan adjoining the Afghan border will be more difficult and tricky than the strikes now being carried out in the FATA. The targeted Balochistan areas may not be as sparsely populated as the targeted FATA areas. Unless there is precise intelligence, the dangers of civilian killings will be more. Human intelligence collection in the FATA area has already improved, indicating new capabilities now available to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in this region. US intelligence officials must be confident of similar precise intelligence in respect of Balochistan too.

Otherwise, recommendations would not have been made to Obama to expand the attacks to cover sanctuaries in Balochistan.

It is important that Obama gives his clearance to this recommendation as quickly as possible before the Neo Taliban launches its summer offensive in Afghanistan from its sanctuaries in the Balochistan area.

The policy already being followed by Obama and the change now recommended cover only attacks on the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and its associates, the Neo Taliban, the TTP and the Hizb-e-Islami. They do not cover the group of five organizations--the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ)--which are commonly referred to in Pakistan as the Punjabi Taliban.

The JEM has been helping the TTP in the Swat Valley of the NWFP. The LET has been helping the Neo Taliban and the Hizb-e-Islami in the Kabul area. It was involved in the explosion outside the Indian Embassy in Kabul in the first week of July last year. The HUM, the HUJI and the LEJ have been active in the tribal belt since the 1990s.

These organizations, except the LEJ, have been behind most acts of jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory. Unless the new US counter-terrorism strategy covers the terrorist infrastructure of the Punjabi Taliban too, the results will not be satisfactory.

It is here that the question of Indo-US operational co-operation comes in. The counter-terrorism co-operation between the intelligence agencies of India and the US has till now been confined to intelligence-sharing, mutual legal assistance in investigation of terrorist incidents and training for capacity building. Joint operations are practically nil.

The time has come for considering joint operations in the form of some of the Predators operating from bases in Indian territory and joint covert actions against the Punjabi Taliban. Such joint operations will be in the mutual interests of the two countries. B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.

http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20090319&fname=raman&sid=1
 

Vinod2070

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Interesting idea. Perhaps one whose time has come.

The drones on the Pakistan's western borders are taking care of the Pushtun Taliban only. The much bigger danger in the Punjabi Taliban. They need to be taken out from Indian bases.

USA should give it a serious thought! ;)
 

ahmedsid

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The US acting out of Indian bases is a No No for me. I wouldnt like sophisticated US Military Equipment flying out from Indian bases! Who would????? Remember these drones are of dual use, attack and intelligence gathering. If the US is so interested in tackling the Talibs and other terrorist, they should tackle Paistani Govt or Army who openly enter into a truce with them! The USA has always indulged in games in matters such as terrorism, I wouldnt trust them to tackle it fully, they would make sure a little bit of terrorism remain so it serves them in any way, and this thinking is gonna be dangerous for them.
 

Rage

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The simple question to ask however is: Why?

Why should US drones be flying out from Indian air bases when Pakistan has already offered, and will likely not for the foreseeable future refuse, the use of its own airbases?

Why should India make available its logistical facilities unless it can exact some proportionate corresponding gain?

Why should the United States, if it does conduct covert operations from Indian territory, risk the revelation of that fact- which undoubtedly would lead to an even greater escalation of public hostility in Pakistan- thereby weakening the present government there amenable to its policies, and jeopardizing the war on terror?

Why should India risk making covert US bases in its territory - and thereby its soil - a further target for reprisals by the groups in question?

And consider also the implications on our foreign policy with the Arab world and with China should such a fact be revealed- which it undoubtedly will in due course of time- particularly with countries like Syria that has also been the victim of a US troop strike within its borders in October of last year- and our traditional Arab allies.

Most importantly, consider the implications for our sovereignty. Things like these tend to have an increscent effect. And do we really want to become another Pakistan?
 

Vinod2070

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The simple question to ask however is: Why?

Why should US drones be flying out from Indian air bases when Pakistan has already offered, and will likely not for the foreseeable future refuse, the use of its own airbases?

Why should India make available its logistical facilities unless it can exact some proportionate corresponding gain?

Why should the United States, if it does conduct covert operations from Indian territory, risk the revelation of that fact- which undoubtedly would lead to an even greater escalation of public hostility in Pakistan- thereby weakening the present government there amenable to its policies, and jeopardizing the war on terror?

Why should India risk making covert US bases in its territory - and thereby its soil - a further target for reprisals by the groups in question?

And consider also the implications on our foreign policy with the Arab world and with China should such a fact be revealed- which it undoubtedly will in due course of time- particularly with countries like Syria that has also been the victim of a US troop strike within its borders in October of last year- and our traditional Arab allies.

Most importantly, consider the implications for our sovereignty. Things like these tend to have an increscent effect. And do we really want to become another Pakistan?
These are all valid concerns. We will have to take due precautions if we go down this path.

However the Punjabi Taliban is more of an immediate threat to Indian than the USA. India can do little about it without going to a full scale war which we would like to avoid. USA on the other hand can get away with precision strikes on the terror camps with Pakistan doing little beyond wringing its hands.

China is already openly in bed with our enemies. We can't be rolling on the floor for them. The Arab world, I agree we should assuage their concerns. I am sure it can be done with creative diplomacy.

We can't be doing nothing not to enrage the terrorists! They are our enemies just for what we are. They would not stop trying to destroy us based on what we do or don't do. We have to hit them hard and keep hitting them till they realize its futile to even try.
 
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20 Pak-trained British terrorists have returned to UK

http://newsx.com/story/48385

20 Pak-trained Britons have returned to UK: Report

Tue-Mar 24, 2009

London / Press Trust of India
More than 20 Britons who spent time or trained with Pakistan-based terrorist organisations have reportedly returned to the UK, posing a threat to the country.

According to a series of special reports from Pakistan, Sky News on Tuesday reported that Pakistan had monitored more than 20 Britons who spent time with radical militant groups and then returned to the UK.

The men are reportedly trained with extremist outfits linked to al Qaida and the Taliban.

The dossier of names is expected to be handed over to British anti-terrorist teams soon and is being seen as a big leap forward in the sharing of intelligence between the two countries, the report said.

The Sky News investigation said the details have been compiled by the ISI and confirm Prime Minister Gordon Brown's declaration that three-quarters of all serious terror plots in Britain have their roots in Pakistan.

The suspects are aged between 17 and 23 and have apparently created "sufficient suspicion" with their activities for the ISI to believe they pose a "potential danger" to Britain.

The channel reported intelligence officials as saying that they have also heard "English accents" while listening to satellite and mobile phone chatter between the UK and Pakistan's tribal heartlands.

Eleven of the Britons claimed they were studying in Pakistan while seven said they were visiting relatives. One said he was working for a charity with links to Britain and others said they were on holiday, the report said.

One anti-terror expert told Sky News, "The ISI have never been happy about sharing information. They are pretty much a law unto themselves but we'd certainly like more intelligence
sharing."

Another unnamed Pakistani source said, "We know the number of British Pakistanis engaged in what we would call suspicious activities is much higher - probably in the hundreds - but, to be frank, this isn't a Pakistani priority."

"The intelligence services here have much bigger things to worry about and these guys haven't committed any crime on Pakistani soil."

Amir Rana, of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, told the channel, "You have to be aware of the mindset in London.

Most of these groups have huge public support and therefore government support.

"They exist to fight India and have political wings attached to their military wings. Many of them are supported by the intelligence agencies, so they are very much tolerated in London.

"They are not seen as a threat to Pakistan and they view themselves as legitimate."
 

A.V.

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NEW YORK: Pakistan could collapse within six months in the face of snowballing insurgency, according to a top expert on guerrilla

warfare.

Such dire prediction was given by David Kilcullen, a former adviser to top US military commander General David H. Petraeus.

Petraeus also echoed the same thought when he told a Congressional testimony last week that insurgency was one which could "take down" Pakistan, which is home to nuclear arms and al-Qaida.

Kilcullen's comments come as Pakistan is witnessing an unprecedented upswing in terrorists strikes and now some analysts in Pakistan and Washington are putting forward apocalyptic timetables for the country.

In an analysis piece, the New York Times cast doubts about the success of President Barack Obama's strategy offering Pakistan a partnership to defeat insurgency, but the Pakistanis still consider India enemy number one.

Officially, Pakistan's government welcomed Obama's strategy, with its hefty infusions of American money, hailing it as a "positive change", the paper said.

But as the Obama administration tries to bring Pakistanis to its side, large parts of the public, political class and the military have brushed off the plan, rebuffing the idea that the threat from al-Qaida and the Taliban, which Washington calls a common enemy, is so urgent, it added.

Some, including the Pak army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and President Asif Ali Zardari may be coming around but for the military, at least, India remains priority No. 1, as it has for the 61 years of Pakistan's existence, the paper said.

How to shift that focus in time for Pakistan to defeat a fast-expanding Islamic insurgency that threatens to devour the country is the challenge facing Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, and Richard C Holbrooke, the special envoy to the region, as they arrive in Pakistan for talks later this week, the Times emphasised.

Strengthening Pakistan's weak civilian institutions, updating political parties rooted in feudal loyalties and recasting a military "fixated on yesterday's enemy", and stuck in the traditions of conventional warfare, are generational challenges, the paper said, warning that Pakistan may not have the luxury of the long term to meet them.

Even before the insurgency has been fully engaged, however, many Pakistanis have concluded that reaching an accommodation with the militants is preferable to fighting them. Some, including mid-ranking soldiers, choose to see the militants not as the enemy, but as fellow Muslims who are deserving of greater sympathy than are the American aims, the paper added.

It is problematic whether the backing of Zardari, and the Obama administration's promise of USD 1.5 billion in aid for each of the next five years, can change the mood in the country, former interior minister Aftab Ahmad Sherpao, who visited Washington last fall to meet some of the people who are now officials in the new administration, was quoted as saying.

Fighting the insurgency is commonly seen in Pakistan as an American cause, not a Pakistani one, he said.

There are questions, too, of whether the Obama's offer of nearly USD 3 billion in counterinsurgency aid can quickly convert the Pakistani military from a force trained to fight India on the plains of Punjab into an outfit that can conquer the mountains of the tribal areas, where the militants operate, the Times said.

"After such a long time of being with the Americans, the country has been through such stress and strain and nothing good has come of it," Sherpao told the paper. "A cross-section of people is dead set against the Americans. Another section is not happy but not vocal. About 1 to 2 per cent would say this policy of America should continue."

The distrust, the Times points out, has been heightened by charges from American officials, including General Petraeus and Holbrooke, that Pakistan's spy agency ISI is still supporting the Islamic militants who pour over the border to fight American troops in Afghanistan.


link:- times of india
 

ahmedsid

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Pakistan, I never thought I would agree with such a notion that Pakistan might collapse, but the ground situation there is sad, really sad and Anything can happen. Where is the Army, where are the cops while girls are being flogged and bombs going off every other day?

If Pakistanis dont act Now and Act Quick, all will be Lost. I see that India is blamed for the Bomb blasts and attacks, and this attitude will be the downfall of Pakistan.

Yes, In India we Blame Pakistan because we know that Pakistan supports Indian Separatist groups, but India on the other hand does not support TALIBAN, which is pakistans current enemy! Yes the same taliban Pakistan gave protein shakes to!!!!

Goes onto prove that Terrorism doesnt Pay!!!
 

Soham

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Even though the situation is deteriorating into anarchy, we cannot forget about the Pakistani Army's role in getting them back on track.

I don't see them falling within six months. In fact I don't see them falling at all.
Once the PA willingly decides to finish off the liability it had created, the Taliban is a goner.
 

Daredevil

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They have been saying this for past 6 months. It is difficult for Pakistan to collapse in 6 months as long as they have Pakistani army which IMO is the strongest institution in the Pakistan. The moment you see a stand-off between the Talibans and PA, that is when it can be assumed that it has truly started fighting Taliban.
 

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As getting into this topic , and with deep respect to all the forum members who had commented on this topic, what I can say that according to me it is more important than the prediction of timing (as predicted by the article) that if Pakistan collapse what will happen? I think that , a disintegrated and dead Pakistan will be troublesome for our country , as there will be no institution left, any body can take control of that country's defence resources, and do what ever can in that possible law less scenario, that will be dangerous for our perspective, I have deep respect and farm believe on our Mighty Military and the IAF and Navy, and also I am neither of the opinion that this will be our 'Great Duty for giving Oxygen to the dying Patient' as the matter is taken up by the USA for last 60 years. another problem we can face Humanitarian Crisis, with influx of Refugees, what we worst face.

Therefore , we must be cautious.

Regards.
 

ZOOM

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Downfall of Pak within 6 months is highly far fetch idea, atmost there would be some political instability and increasing rage of terror attacks. Pak do have a support from Arab and China to save itself from any enemy. If both this entities pull back their support, then certainly it will be a alarm bell for the downfall of Pakistan. Even US want allow that situation to came in unless it devastate Al-Quada.
 

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