Pakistan and the Bomb - 11 years After.

Awesome

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Pakistan's lack of no-first-use policy has provided Pakistan with a credible deterrent against any nation seeking to go to war with it. Other than Zardari's faux pas in this regard, the aggressiveness has paid off.

Its all about nuclear diplomacy than using a weapon. It's short sighted to blame Pakistan's woes on its nuclear weapons. The pressures Pakistan has against keeping its nukes are obvious, however it is up to the leaders to not give in to those pressures (which they often do), so the failure has been of leadership to allow a capability to turn into a weakness.

Anyone discounting the value of the nuke for Pakistan almost never takes into account the scenarios of a nuclear less Pakistan.
 

Rage

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Let me tell you something Asim Aquil, you do not have the balls to use nuclear weapons. Because if you did, it would mean the end of you as a nation-state. You would be invaded and thrown to the dogs. Not even your bosom pals China would be able to stand up for you. You would be sanctioned beyond recognition and neither do you have the strength or the economic-capacity to withstand sanctions on your own. Lest you want to be turned into another medieval shit hole, with an Afghanistan war on your sidelines and nerve-wracking extremism in your polity, it is not an option you want to contemplate now, or in the future; and, for the above reasons, neither is it an option you have contemplated in the past. We know that; you know we know that. And therefore, there is nothing else to be said. Therefore, your credible nuclear deterrent is neither 'credible' nor 'deterrent'. It is a deterrent only when your political centre is at stake, Islamabad. And when your political leaders, also your military leaders, have no other option but to flee or to press the button, for all figurative intents and purposes. The only reason we've refrained from invading you, post-Mumbai, is because of your puppy dog masters, the United States. And their plans for hegemony for this region. That is a primary reason: alongwith growing integration with the West, that an aggressive, even if -retaliatory, war for us has no longer been possible. Don't flatter or delude yourself into thinking, it had anything to do with your nuclear deterrent. Your nuclear deterrent is an ultimate last strike capability, just as it is for every other state other than the dominant global hegemon. And we have no intent, of occupying Islamabad.


Now, let me tell you what other your nuclear rhetoric has got for you: It has made you a pariah state; a seemingly flagitious one, that talks about or escalates a topographical, conventional war into a nuclear one; coupled with your constant oligarchy of dictatorships and the seemingly unending stream of Islamic extremists- and a dysfunctional polity and bureaucracy, it has also made you a legitimate threat to the world, a bogey-man the West can use to jeopardize the West and justify its next war. It has created incentives for you to adopt non-rational and 'temerarious' policies, reckless adventurism, cementing your place only a notch above North Korea which enjoys its bottom of the dung heap position only because of its isolated, communist polity. It has ensured you increasingly tend to focus on the 'nuclear balance', an irrelevant balance except in the ultimate resort, while neglecting your conventional balance, to juxtapose yourself against India. Even worse, it has ensured that even during times of potential crisis, you focus on your nuclear weapons porgram- ignoring to everything else, the costs of everything that this may involve. Your ambiguous thresholds have never served to deter us, the global community and its reprisals have.
 

Awesome

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coupled with your constant oligarchy of dictatorships and the seemingly unending stream of Islamic extremists- and a dysfunctional polity and bureaucracy, it has also made you a legitimate threat to the world, a bogey-man the West can use to jeopardize the West and justify its next war.
Woah that's too many things to just mention as "coupled with". Probably these other things have a lot of to do with Pakistan's less number of diplomatic allies compared to India, but I wouldn't lay much credence to the nuclear aspect. Yes the nukes make us a target for the jittery west that equally uses them as a boogey-man as much as we use them for various conspiracy theories that are abundant in Pakistan, but thats a given when national interests don't align.
 

Rage

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Woah that's too many things to just mention as "coupled with". Probably these other things have a lot of to do with Pakistan's less number of diplomatic allies compared to India, but I wouldn't lay much credence to the nuclear aspect. Yes the nukes make us a target for the jittery west that equally uses them as a boogey-man as much as we use them for various conspiracy theories that are abundant in Pakistan, but thats a given when national interests don't align.
You'll have to look at this from how we're looking at it, primarily because we're doing the looking. And it's not just India, every state in the world now recognizes Pakistan poses: i)a global terrorism problem, on the one hand and ii)a regional nuclear problem, on the other. Because every academic institution is teaching it, and every academic institution derives its legitimacy for that primarily from statements like: ""If your (Indian) forces go to cross our borders by an inch, we are going to annihilate your cities" by General Zia-ul-Haq in 1987 or "It was in Forman Christian College (in Lahore) that I learned how to make a time bomb, which I later used considerably to good effect," by General Musharraf. The problem is compounded, by the fact that your political leaders have also tended to be your military ones. Which means, peace, if any, is rarely given a chance, when war has already been decided.

Pakistan has fewer allies today because of a host of other problems, that is in no doubt. But the fact that those allies view you as a potential problem, is primarily because you have been considered to be a vicious, unstable polity. And that image comes largely from your nuclear rhetoric. You understand the rhetoric and the emotions it invokes? It behooves a nation state that is a pariah, with its back to the wall, with no other means of escape than that which is considered the ultimate, maximal cause by any rational state. The presence of extremists, in both your polity and government, lends no less good weight to that rhetoric, in equal measure.
 
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Daredevil

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The new nuclear rhetoric is that - "give us money or else nukes will fall into the hands of terrorists". This has been used time and again and to get doles from US and NATO countries. There is no incentive for western nations to keep Pakistan from going under except due to the fear of falling of nukes into the hands of al-qaeda/Taliban combo.

I think US is working actively to denude Pakistan of the nukes to avert such a situation but needs to be seen how successful they will be. Raymond Davis saga should be seen in this context.
 

Iamanidiot

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Gagan of BRF and Colonel OOE of WAB have done lot of research and put effort on the state of bious Pakistani nukes and reading both of them and the recent ious Pakistans quest for plutonium .It finally dawned to me by inference that the bious do no have a working and usable nuke right now.The CHIC-4 chinese nukes were taken out by the Chinese after 9\11 and the US palled the remaining Uranium based nukes were PALLEd with those nuke keys in Washington.I think the GOI knows it since a decade and add to this the Cold Start doctrine is making the army of pure to pee in its pants.

The **** generals know this that we know the issue

Note:Indian Members must thank these two members for their effort.Though they are not in our board
 
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Awesome

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Gagan of BRF and Colonel OOE of WAB have done lot of research and put effort on the state of bious Pakistani nukes and reading both of them and the recent ious Pakistans quest for plutonium .It finally dawned to me by inference that the bious do no have a working and usable nuke right now.The CHIC-4 chinese nukes were taken out by the Chinese after 9\11 and the US palled the remaining Uranium based nukes were PALLEd with those nuke keys in Washington.I think the GOI knows it since a decade and add to this the Cold Start doctrine is making the army of pure to pee in its pants.

The **** generals know this that we know the issue

Note:Indian Members must thank these two members for their effort.Though they are not in our board
I didn't fully understand what you were saying, however I've heard similar things as well. Don't know Gagan, but the good colonel theorized that since Pakistan and India have not done a miniaturized warhead test detonation yet, that probably means they lack the capability to mount a big fat nuke on any sort of missile.

This however till date (and my last interaction on this topic with him was 6 years ago) has not received sufficient credence from other military commentators on the matter. It's a valid argument but there are many ifs and buts that keep going on and on.
 

sayareakd

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guys i just cannot understand that pakistan tested five nukes on mountain and still that mountain was standing. i would say one tough mountain...can any one throw some light on this aspect
 

maomao

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guys i just cannot understand that pakistan tested five nukes on mountain and still that mountain was standing. i would say one tough mountain...can any one throw some light on this aspect
Hahhahhhahahahhahaha Not that tough......The mountain changed color :D
 

Daredevil

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guys i just cannot understand that pakistan tested five nukes on mountain and still that mountain was standing. i would say one tough mountain...can any one throw some light on this aspect
Simple. The nukes didn't have the fire power and are damp squibs.
 
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guys i just cannot understand that pakistan tested five nukes on mountain and still that mountain was standing. i would say one tough mountain...can any one throw some light on this aspect
Chinese nukes were sent over after this to save face.
 

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