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- The events of the past few weeks, mostly unnoticed as a gestalt, by Indians, indicate an unsettling turn of events towards increased strategic friction in Asia.
KAZUHIRO NOGI—AFP/Getty Images Japan's Self-Defense Force honor guards prepare for a welcoming ceremony of new Defense Minister Gen Nakatani in Tokyo on Dec. 25, 2014
When Russia invaded Ukraine following the events at Euromaidan, the West lashed out at Putin with the full force of economic sanctions. Newspapers were filled with reports of ruble depreciation, the sinking popularity of Putin and the inevitable collapse of the Russian oligarchs. Except none of that appears to be happening. Beyond the immediate regional geopolitical issues, the Ukraine crisis did make one thing clear. The West is losing it's self proclaimed ability to implement and maintain a "Rules based global order". A signal Beijing seems to have read all too well.
Pakistan's tame rebuttal to Saudi Arabia and it's ardent embrace of China made clear it's new alignment.It was probably no surprise to most Pakistanis that the poster put up during Xi's visit featured Xi himself in greater prominence while pushing Nawaz Sharif to the background. China's $46bn corridor and energy projects, signed on very harsh terms, have, at least in the midterm, wedded Pakistan to Chinese fortunes. China is , apart from a port at Gwadar, pursuing a military base in Djibouti , right at the mouth of the strategically located Gulf of Aden.
Parallely, China has been expanding it's footprint in the South China Sea. China continues unabated in its construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, which are big enough to host airstrips.
To be sure, Chinese moves have not gone un-reciprocated. Japan and the US increased their co-operation to a "global" scale, including space. This was promptly followed by the very controversial first step towards removing "Article 9" from the Japanese Constitution which forbids the use of force to settle disputes. The new amendment enabled Japan to "to exercise the minimum force necessary if a country with close ties to Tokyo was attacked and certain conditions were met.", an undeniably aggressive stance. PM Abe, who holds a majority, has previously indicated his preference to remove article 9, a move heavily opposed by the political left in Japan.
India now finds itself in the unenviable position as the target of multiple degrees of threats. Apart from infiltration and constant LOC firing violations in the west and rising Islamic extremism to the east in Bangladesh, where atheist bloggers have been hacked to death on the streets, India recently saw a spurt in violence in its North east by NSCN militants. This is in addition to the rapid infrastructure build up on the other side of the Tibet border.
India's government, having already taken stop-gap measures like ordering 36 Rafael fighters in flyaway condition and the purchase of 145 Ultra Light Howitzers, suffers from long term structural weaknesses. Chronic poverty, abysmal HDI and a lack of sufficient skilled population prevents industrialization of this continent sized country. These problems are exacerbated by a fractured political class which can not pass critical reforms to archaic and impractical laws.
These events should act as a wake up call to Indians and their strategic planners. Defense project cost overruns and deadline misses that have become the norm are leading to strategic disadvantages and costing precious capital for a country that has little oil of it's own. In the end India may find itself in a war, it never adequately prepared for.
-Rowdy, DFI
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