Odds against an Asian Maskirova

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soham I can give you atleast 10 recent examples for continued enmity

Chinese issuing separate visas for Kashmiri Indians
Chinese damming/diverting the Brahmaputra
Chinese forbidding the dalai lama to visit Arunachal
Chinese inursions in Ladakh,sikkhim,Arunachal
Chinese using Pakistan as proxy against India
Chinese funding the Northeatern and Nepali Maoists
Chinese building ports in countries around India
Chinese proliferating nuclear weapons/missiles to Pakistan
Chinese arming pakistan J-17,hq 9 etc...
Chinese trying to block ADB loan for Arunachal development
chinese string of pearls
100's of Chinese IRBM's in tibet aimed at Delhi/indian cities

and the list can go on.....
 
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amoy

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Yusufji, we have always been taught that China betrayed us by declaring a war while we were chanting 'hindi-chini bhai bhai'. I wanted know whether this is a complete truth or only a half truth as in was India completely innocent? Did India do nothing to trigger Chinese reaction
of course it's not the WHOLE ' truth'. at that time India after its independence adopted a 'going forward' policy to test China's 'bottomline' by even crossing that McMahon Line (East). the new China (PRC), like its predecessors (ROC- Republic of China) didn't ratify anything like McMahon Line. Premier Zhou Enlai proposed border nego. to India. But Nehru declined any nego. by denying any border dispute in the assertion that the border was already set by British Raj and India simply could carry it on. Once China even offered to give up its claim over the East part (so-called South Tibet) in exchange for the West (Aksai Chin). But Nehru propably felt India was in a better position with backing from both blocs (the US and Soviet Union) and consequently dismissed any compromise.

Of course both sides may continue to resort to nationalism zeal by holding 'not going to cede any sovereignty' blah blah. but... yeah it's always difficult. Similarly in border nego. with Russia. Some Russian felt they gave up too much by returning some islands in Amur (Chinese - Helongjiang River) to China whereas some Chinese thought by accepting a partial return China permanently cemented the loss of other parts. Fortunately both legislative bodies approved the agreement boldly which was unpopular in both countries.
 

johnee

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ohimalaya, if you could, please answer to the points raised by Lethal Force.
 

Soham

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soham I can give you atleast 10 recent examples for continued enmity

Chinese issuing separate visas for Kashmiri Indians
Chinese damming/diverting the Brahmaputra
Chinese forbidding the dalai lama to visit Arunachal
Chinese inursions in Ladakh,sikkhim,Arunachal
Chinese using Pakistan as proxy against India
Chinese funding the Northeatern and Nepali Maoists
Chinese building ports in countries around India
Chinese proliferating nuclear weapons/missiles to Pakistan
Chinese arming pakistan J-17,hq 9 etc...
Chinese trying to block ADB loan for Arunachal development
chinese string of pearls
100's of Chinese IRBM's in tibet aimed at Delhi/indian cities

and the list can go.....
Who said anything about the absence of present enmities ?

Just like we see China as a threat, they too are wary of India's rapid growth and influence. If you notice most issues are more to do with China backing Pakistan against India. Both countries hate each other, and there's no doubt about that.
And lets not get Dalai Lama into this please.
 

thakur_ritesh

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Odds are high and damn high for such an alliance to emerge, though if pulled off would be the alliance of this century for sure, and stakes do remains high for both sides in having such an alliance.

There remain concerns on both sides which when looked from each others PoVs come across quite genuine. We host Dalai Lama and the Tibetans, have taken a turn on our relations with the US, which puts us in a spot of bother for the Chinese, they have a superiority complex, don’t want an at par fair game to be played, with territorial ambitions on our land, aggressive militarization, feeding Pakistan militarily which directly challenges India’s very existence and the much talked about encirclement of India, which all in all creates a lots of suspicion about them and then there remains the 1962, which is seen an act of backstabbing by the Chinese, so yes the odds are damn huge.

But then international politics has always been about attaining one’s interests, and interests can force even the warring parties to some sort of an alliance sometime in the future. We have seen the worst in Europe, and it is an example which shows that if things dealt with maturity and sensibly a lot of good can come out, and indo-sino relations remain no different.

The power corridors of the globe will most certainly move a full circle, it was the prc and India who dominated in the past for centuries and both surely hold the aces for now of doing a turn around on the west in times to come. Both have the potential of being one and two economically, just adding the money these two would hold will account for some massive monetary resources (which in times to come could alone figure to something around 40% or more off the whole world), world trade would be mostly centered around these two countries, could come up with a common currency and a currency the world will surely be forced to take up and shun usd in the process, population base is huge which already accounts for 22% of that of world, and stands to increase. Churn out a big resource of scientists and engineers who are the key for any sort of r&d which are the doorways to innovation centers of future, and with economic activity revolved around these two countries in times to come, the two are bound to attract the best of talents as well, amounting to brain gain and reverse brain drain.

Look from the west’s PoV, what would be the biggest threat for their hegemonic rule in the coming years? It has to be an east-east alliance that features the prc and India, but are these two countries smart enough and mature to have such an alliance going, the answer remains to be seen in future.

The other question to be asked is, is this the right time for forging such an alliance? Well most certainly not, for even if the west were to get a wind of this, the whole thing would go for a toss and rest assured our worst enemies will start getting funding to keep us bogged down from moving ahead. For now it is important that India moves closer to the west, which is keen to see India move ahead, and create way for us in various world bodies, which as per them is nurturing of their interests, along with that we need a huge economic push to move millions out of poverty. We need to keep low, keep working hard, have a workable relationship with the prc but along side address each others concerns and try and evolve this relationship to that extent we both dont see hurting each others interests by our actions, and if it interests the two countries then something like three decades from now forge the biggest alliance of this century which will leave the world spellbound and would be the biggest turnaround ever.
 

amoy

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Chinese issuing separate visas for Kashmiri Indians <<< yes , to please PAK and also in retaliation for Dalai Lama's activities in IND
Chinese damming/diverting the Brahmaputra <<< do u believe those netizens in forums are policymakers in Beijing? some even suggest to blow the Himalaya to allow Monsoon in for more humidity
Chinese forbidding the dalai lama to visit Arunachal <<< sure, how can Beijing accept any recognition of S. Tibet to be a foreign land?
Chinese inursions in Ladakh,sikkhim,Arunachal <<< again, no official demarcation of border yet
Chinese using Pakistan as proxy against India <<< ? don't forget the US and probably Saudi A. are PAK's biggest patrons. but u still call Uncle Sam your ally.
Chinese funding the Northeatern and Nepali Maoists <<< evidence?
Chinese building ports in countries around India <<< why not? we need ports and pipelines for oil and gas so that Malacca won't be a bottleneck any longer
Chinese proliferating nuclear weapons/missiles to Pakistan <<< evidence?
Chinese arming pakistan J-17,hq 9 etc... <<< Nobody denies PAK is a friend of China. Oh I recall the West offers much more to PAK
Chinese trying to block ADB loan for Arunachal development <<< how can China support loans to what it assumes an occupied land?
chinese string of pearls <<< cliche again. do u imagine China's navy can go through Malacca to attack India with assistance of the 'pearl'?
100's of Chinese IRBM's in tibet aimed at Delhi/indian cities <<<any proof? wherever the IRBM is deployed how can u ascertain they're aiming at India? why not the US?

Aksai Chin or S.Tibet used to be either barren or without an official border mutually agreed. Hardly any inhabitation there except Tibetans or some tribal people nor any reign from either China or Brit. Brits drew a line which wasn't accepted and then India was only independent in 1947(?). Besides nego. is for 'compromise' instead of 'what is mine is mine, what is yours for now is also mine'.
 
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Soham

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Superb post Ritesh.

In the end I suppose its a question of who we need most. I think our stand might also be decided by that of Russia.
The Bear has problems with the West(Missile shield, role of NATO in Eastern Europe) and China. We can come up with valid reasons in favour of both cases.
India, China and a re-emerging Russia have the potential to get a lot of heads spinning. The Russian influence though decreasing, still exists to quite a degree in our government.

On the other hand, we have also become closer to Europe, who we know have their "bosoms franchised"(Too much of Macbeth does this to you). Western Europe is going to stick with the US. Our growing closeness to the US has reached a level of possible strategic partnership in Central/South Asia.

Some day I suppose, we'll have to make a choice. A bloody tough choice.
 

p2prada

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There is too much distrust between the two govts, intelligence agencies etc to actually come forward with something like an alliance.

We can resolve the border issue and still have cold relations because our foreign policy goes beyond just borders. The main problem after the border dispute is Dalai lama. We are not going to kick him out or anything and India will still be seen as the epicenter for Tibet Freedom. After the Dalai lama is the threat of our military and economy being able to compete with theirs. We are going to have "sibling" rivalry no matter what. The bhai bhai rhetoric exists even today even though it is not said aloud. We are trade partners and are best friends in economic forums. At the same time we are out to get each other. All of this is not something that can happen in just a few years. It is yet to be seen what happens to India China relations post Dalai Lama.

Most importantly, we don't have a common enemy. Terrorism is only seen as a "potential" threat to China. And China's other "enemies" are friends of India.
 

amoy

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Originally Posted by ahmedsid
The thing is that the Chinese detest our form of Governance, our way of operating I feel. They see us lazy people wasting resources, with their herd mentality. This is my personal observation, and this can differ from the Chinese perception. The Chinese are now competing with us, and they are kind of basking under all the importance they suddenly have, they are relishing their global financial heavyweight stats, and this is also an impediment.

Even In forums, we see Chinese saying this and that about India, its democracy, its cities, its villages, its toilets! There is a kind of indoctrination goin on there, wherein they belive they are superior. Again a personal observation, and I maybe wrong.

Chinese economy is export based, and they would want to dump their goods into India and that would be their first demand too if we become chums wid them. I mean, you can say that will make our Industries more better due to the competetion, and I would disagree, because you cant beat the Chinese because of the wages they pay their workers. I mean, they have plenty of skilled labour working cheap if i am not mistaken. In Kerala, we pay 400 Rupees to a person who will come and remove the weeds and arrange up the green surrounding. The wages are increasing day by day, and with this we wont be able to compete with them when we open up and meet their demand.
to my woe I agree with most of the above observation. but it's not because of 'herd mentality' or 'indoctrination'. that sense of superiority is faulty in my opinion. By the way I disagree China is competing with India... Tell me which field the 2 countries are competing on, except military capacity, export? global dominance?
 

johnee

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Ritesh, great post.

I think from India's point of view the things that would make China look more friendly would be:

#China stops being one of the lifelines of Pakistan.
#China drops claims on Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and returns Aksai Chin.
#Accomodates the Tibetans without hurting the soveriegnity and integrity of China.

What would China expect from India?
 

ajtr

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When have I said anything about an India-Japan encirclement? Japan is still not an Indian ally. They're neutral.
China was/is encircled by nations who hate her, but hate each other as well. Unless their survival is threatened, it would be a miracle to see Japan and Korea work together.
Obviously its not easy to roll back. I'm not making webs of idealism here. I started the thread because I'm at a loss of concrete reasons for such enmity.
I just took your example of china's fear of every one and hence cultivating rogue allies.China is fearful of everyone.its is fearful of itself.Pakistan is just low cost method for china to keep india down and get it boxed into south asia only.coz even china knows that direct wars with india will be devastating for itself too in present scenario.coz todays india china war wont be limited to himalayan border alone it will be fought on every front where one party will see upper hand over the other in order to relieve pressure.



Could you emphasize ?
Yes sure.It was china who started cultivating allies against india after 1962.india didnt cultivate any allies till 1971 when it found itself cornered by west-china- pak alliance over east pakistan issue so in desperation india signed treaty with ussr.Now today china is fearful of ind-usa partnership(i wont call it alliance.coz india Usa could never be allies in real sense.its just the convergence of issues that brings india-usa together.)./but then china is fearful of this partnership hence for last 2 years we are seeing chinese antics on north-east borders.The thing to remember is that these borders were quite for almost 30 yrs even if there where some minor intrusions but then chinese hysteria increased after indo-usa nuke deal.If china is fearful of india and it cultivates alliance against india.then india too is fearful of chinese machinations in its own backyard.hence it is looking for mutual alliance.remember its two way street.If china would have resisted the temptation of allying with pak against india back in 1960's we would have seen some solution on the india-china issues.but with all those 50 years of distrust makes any indian weary of chinese intentions.ON china or even with pakistan indian only reacts to their actions it never proactively took actions.


Uhm..no. I will not break my "fairy loving Indians heart"(where d'you get that from ?). Talks with Pakistan are an entirely different issue. It concerns a nation desperate to bleed us with anything and everything. Terrorism is the only way they can hurt a militarily and economically superior India. However, that's for another thread.
Indo-China ties don't have mad mullahs declaring Jehad over some territory and the government actually supporting it.
fairy tales given by some indian belonging to left communists parties that india-china or india-pak alliance will be some game changer to the world.If chinese could not trut their fellow USSR comrades and fought war with them, how can it be possible with india with china undermining india everywhere.from providing nukes to pakistan to the extent of selling fake drugs with made in india labels.

As I said earlier, our ties with China have been improvised by circumstances, rather than a pure diplomatic will.
before diplomatic will to develope there has to be environment of mutual trust which i dont see developing.there were some positive steps taken when rajiv ghandhi after him pv narashima rao visited china.vajpayee went further more by going soft on recognizing tibet issue as china went soft on sikkim in 2002-2003.But since 2009 we are seeing sikkim and arunachal pradesh againg getting propped up by china.So we do get indian reaction in terms of allowing his holiness Dalailama to tawang.if india will see china pushing itself again india will sure rollback the tibet issue.
 

ajtr

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We've all talked about how the actions in the past have converted to mistrust of the present.
Real question, however is - Can we manage an alliance(non-military of course) with China looking at the way the Indian diplomatic factory is working at the moment ? With emerging Chinese power, US and Russia will find many avenues of co-operation; therefore close ties with US and Russia are very possible. On the other hand, China seems to be on a road of its own, challenging a superpower and a former superpower.

So is a balance possible, or would we have to take a side ?
India wont be any millitary or non millitary alliance with china or usa or anyother power.with chinese it will again be convergence of interests like we have seen in-china coming together on climate change summit at Copenhagen same like ind-usa relation on convergence of interests in afghanistan or on nuke deal.China-india relations will be like sometimes hot sometimes cold.
 

ajtr

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Bottom line is China proacts and india reacts
 
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Who said anything about the absence of present enmities ?

Just like we see China as a threat, they too are wary of India's rapid growth and influence. If you notice most issues are more to do with China backing Pakistan against India. Both countries hate each other, and there's no doubt about that.
And lets not get Dalai Lama into this please.
There is a big difference Soham between enmity between two nations and working to destabilize your adversary and threaten their national security.
 
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Chinese issuing separate visas for Kashmiri Indians <<< yes , to please PAK and also in retaliation for Dalai Lama's activities in IND
Chinese damming/diverting the Brahmaputra <<< do u believe those netizens in forums are policymakers in Beijing? some even suggest to blow the Himalaya to allow Monsoon in for more humidity
Chinese forbidding the dalai lama to visit Arunachal <<< sure, how can Beijing accept any recognition of S. Tibet to be a foreign land?
Chinese inursions in Ladakh,sikkhim,Arunachal <<< again, no official demarcation of border yet
Chinese using Pakistan as proxy against India <<< ? don't forget the US and probably Saudi A. are PAK's biggest patrons. but u still call Uncle Sam your ally.
Chinese funding the Northeatern and Nepali Maoists <<< evidence?
Chinese building ports in countries around India <<< why not? we need ports and pipelines for oil and gas so that Malacca won't be a bottleneck any longer
Chinese proliferating nuclear weapons/missiles to Pakistan <<< evidence?
Chinese arming pakistan J-17,hq 9 etc... <<< Nobody denies PAK is a friend of China. Oh I recall the West offers much more to PAK
Chinese trying to block ADB loan for Arunachal development <<< how can China support loans to what it assumes an occupied land?
chinese string of pearls <<< cliche again. do u imagine China's navy can go through Malacca to attack India with assistance of the 'pearl'?
100's of Chinese IRBM's in tibet aimed at Delhi/indian cities <<<any proof? wherever the IRBM is deployed how can u ascertain they're aiming at India? why not the US?

Aksai Chin or S.Tibet used to be either barren or without an official border mutually agreed. Hardly any inhabitation there except Tibetans or some tribal people nor any reign from either China or Brit. Brits drew a line which wasn't accepted and then India was only independent in 1947(?). Besides nego. is for 'compromise' instead of 'what is mine is mine, what is yours for now is also mine'.
ohimalya if you search our forum you will find atleast one thread on each one of these issues.
 

amoy

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If china is fearful of india and it cultivates alliance against india.then india too is fearful of chinese machinations in its own backyard.hence it is looking for mutual alliance.remember its two way street.If china would have resisted the temptation of allying with pak against india back in 1960's we would have seen some solution on the india-china issues.but with all those 50 years of distrust makes any indian weary of chinese intentions.
* China is fearful of ### - oh no, u don't know Chinese psyche. China was not so preoccupied with India at all. China fought Korean War against the US camp. China regarded both Soviet and US blocs as major threats until China normalized diplomatic ties with the US late 1970's . Don't think of China as a paranoia who wished to fight on multi-fronts.

* Don't over-simplify China-PAK friendship as merely countering India. That relationship is far more complex and profound than that.
In the past, Pakistan helped China to break its isolation especially during the 1960s and 1970s, as it functioned as a bridge between China and the Islamic world, facilitated the Sino-U.S. rapprochement (Henry Kissinger’s first secret visit to China via Pakistan in July 1971 paved the way for Sino-U.S. normalization) and staunchly supported China’s permanent seat in the UN Security Council, which Beijing finally secured in October 1971.
However being friendly with PAK doesn't entail hostility towards India. Dont forget the US is always PAK's biggest patron during /post cold war yet u still regard it as a top ally. China is your competitor - firmly yes, partner - probably over certain issues, but regarding her as an enemy is definitely a folly!

* Below statement is absolutely correct
our ties with China have been improvised by circumstances, rather than a pure diplomatic will.
 

ajtr

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* China is fearful of ### - oh no, u don't know Chinese psyche. China was not so preoccupied with India at all. China fought Korean War against the US camp. China regarded both Soviet and US blocs as major threats until China normalized diplomatic ties with the US late 1970's . Don't think of China as a paranoia who wished to fight on multi-fronts.
Sir, do me a favour please read this thread from page one before shooting from the hip and please try to understand the context of the argument.Since these were not my argument i was just trying to oversimplyfing it to the person who made it.

* Don't over-simplify China-PAK friendship as merely countering India. That relationship is far more complex and profound than that.In the past, Pakistan helped China to break its isolation especially during the 1960s and 1970s, as it functioned as a bridge between China and the Islamic world, facilitated the Sino-U.S. rapprochement (Henry Kissinger’s first secret visit to China via Pakistan in July 1971 paved the way for Sino-U.S. normalization) and staunchly supported China’s permanent seat in the UN Security Council, which Beijing finally secured in October 1971.
True.But india is concerned with the aspect which affects india.And india's doubt about china's intentions have become stronger with time.

However being friendly with PAK doesn't entail hostility towards India. Dont forget the US is always PAK's biggest patron during /post cold war yet u still regard it as a top ally. China is your competitor - firmly yes, partner - probably over certain issues, but regarding her as an enemy is definitely a folly!
Wrong.India-USA are not allies.thats just the convergence of the interests as in case of convergence of interests of china -india on climate change.india and china agreeing on some issues doesnt make them allies.even india-pak interests too sometimes converge but that dont make us allies.and same is true other way round too.
 

threadbrowser

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Superb post Ritesh.

In the end I suppose its a question of who we need most. I think our stand might also be decided by that of Russia.
The Bear has problems with the West(Missile shield, role of NATO in Eastern Europe) and China. We can come up with valid reasons in favour of both cases.
India, China and a re-emerging Russia have the potential to get a lot of heads spinning. The Russian influence though decreasing, still exists to quite a degree in our government.

On the other hand, we have also become closer to Europe, who we know have their "bosoms franchised"(Too much of Macbeth does this to you). Western Europe is going to stick with the US. Our growing closeness to the US has reached a level of possible strategic partnership in Central/South Asia.

Some day I suppose, we'll have to make a choice. A bloody tough choice.
Nice posts Soham. Are you on CDF nowadays, cause you are starting to sound a lot like OOE clapclap
 

Soham

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Nice posts Soham. Are you on CDF nowadays, cause you are starting to sound a lot like OOE clapclap
Hahaha ! I'm not really on CDF, although I remember registering and introducing myself there.

I don't think its possible for a civilian to sound like OOE.(Unless ofcourse I drink too much of single malt Scotch and listen to Celin Dion, both of which I am a stranger to).

Please post more, will ya ?
 

Soham

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There is a big difference Soham between enmity between two nations and working to destabilize your adversary and threaten their national security.
Enmity automatically includes efforts for destabilization.
 

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