North Korean nuclear crisis

[tramp]

North Korea blocks South workers from Kaesong zone

North Korea has stopped South Koreans from crossing the border to work at the jointly run Kaesong industrial zone, for the first time since 2009.

Seoul said about 800 South Koreans who had stayed overnight at the complex were being allowed to return.

Kaesong is a crucial revenue source for the North, which has not indicated how long the entry ban will last.

Pyongyang has threatened the South and the US in recent weeks, and has vowed to restart a mothballed nuclear plant.

The border into Kaesong is the last functioning crossing between the two Koreas, and the complex is the last significant symbol of co-operation.

Continue reading the main story
Kaesong Industrial Complex
Launched in 2003, largely financed by the South to increase co-operation
More than 120 factories employ North Koreans in manufacturing industries, with goods exported to the South
Complex as a whole produced $470m worth of goods in 2012 - the biggest contributor to inter-Korean trade
South Korean companies pay more than $80m a year in wages to North Korean workers - the complex is an important source of revenue for Pyongyang
Q&A: Kaesong Industrial Complex
The industrial park is home to more than 120 factories that employ more than 50,000 North Koreans and several hundred managers from the South.

Permission is granted on a daily basis for workers to cross into the complex, where they can stay overnight.

More than 850 South Koreans were at Kaesong when the ban was announced.

The BBC's Lucy Williamson, at the border, says many of the South Koreans at the complex have decided not to return immediately because they fear they will not be allowed back in.

One South Korean worker who returned from the complex said some of his colleagues had been held up because they had no transport.

"Other people couldn't return because they were supposed to be taken home on trucks scheduled to carry supplies into North Korea, but the trucks couldn't get into the North," said the worker.

The South's Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-seok told reporters he wanted the ban to be lifted immediately.

"Ensuring the safety of our citizens is our top priority and the South Korean government will take necessary measures based on this principle," he said.

Continue reading the main story
Timeline: Korean tensions
12 Dec: North test-fires a missile
12 Feb: North conducts underground nuclear test
11 Mar: US-South Korea annual military drills begin
19 Mar: US flies B-52 bombers over South
27 Mar: North cuts military hotline with South
28 Mar: US flies B-2 stealth bombers over South
30 Mar: North says it is entering a "state of war" with South
2 Apr: North says it is restarting Yongbyon reactor
A vexing problem for the US
How potent are North's threats?
South Koreans were briefly denied access in March 2009, in an apparent response to annual US-South Korea military exercises.

'Reckless'
North Korea threatened to shut down the Kaesong complex last week.

It has also threatened attacks on US military bases in Asia and South Korean border islands.

On Tuesday it said it planned to restart its mothballed reactor at Yongbyon, which is the source of plutonium for its nuclear weapons programme.

The North has apparently been angered by UN sanctions imposed after a recent nuclear test.

Its statements against the US seem to be in response to the current round of US-South Korea military drills.

On Tuesday, US Secretary of State John Kerry called recent North Korean actions "dangerous" and "reckless".

"Let me be perfectly clear here today. The United States will defend and protect ourselves and our treaty ally, the Republic of Korea [South Korea]," he said after talks with his South Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se.


Investigative journalist John Sweeney says North Korea has "worst government in the world"
The US has recently made a series of high-profile flights of advanced aircraft over South Korea.

The sorties included stealth fighters and nuclear-capable B-52 bombers.

Officials have also confirmed that the USS John McCain, an Aegis-class destroyer capable of intercepting missiles, has been positioned off the Korean peninsula.

A second destroyer, the USS Decatur, has been sent to the region.

Earlier on Tuesday UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that the crisis had "gone too far" and called for urgent talks with the North.

"Things must begin to calm down, there is no need for the DPRK [North Korea] to be on a collision course with the international community. Nuclear threats are not a game," Mr Ban said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22011207

 

[SajeevJino]

A typical Air War scenario in North Korea

An eventual war will start with the typical cruise missile attack, targeting the main air defense sites (i.e. airports, radars, SAM – surface to air missile batteries, etc).

Then, the first waves of air strikes will be conducted by stealth bombers escorted by stealth fighters, with Electronic Warfare planes (in the form of Growlers or Prowlers) providing the required electronic cover.

As already explained, F-22s would predominantely be tasked with high-value escort and air-to-surface missions.

When it comes to neutralizing the underground structures, the U.S. experience dates back to the first Iraqi war, when they were to destroy Saddam Hussein's bunkers. Then, USAF used GBU-28 bombs, which were 2,500 kg steride-fed PaveWays. The mass of the unit was to penetrate the thick concrete roof of a bunker and explode inside.

The GBU-28 was a mother for Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Developed in order to be used against the Afghan fortified mountains the monster MOP bomb can only be carried by the B-2: each stealth bomber can carry two such weapons.

Nevertheless it is said that Pentagon has developed a new penetration munition which began testing at the beginning of this year. We might see its first use in the Korean air campaign.


The Aviationist » This is what an (unlikely) Air War in North Korea would look like

 

[Yusuf]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

it doesn't matter whether California is within the range . SoKo is already being held as hostage that's what Chubby wants to achieve with all that noise· wait for the South's olive leaves

Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2

How will NoKo deliver the bomb? It's warhead is not missile capable. This is why the US and SoKo have escalated the situation.

 

[CCTV]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

How will NoKo deliver the bomb? It's warhead is not missile capable. This is why the US and SoKo have escalated the situation.

China has = NK has, and it is a China Vs US game.

 

[Yusuf]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

China has = NK has, and it is a China Vs US game.

It's a possibility and I accept its a China v US thing and I have said as much. But to actually provide nukes tipped missiles to NoKo with Made in china written on it is inviting a lot of trouble.

 

[arnabmit]

Is this a TEL?

 

[CCTV]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

It's a possibility and I accept its a China v US thing and I have said as much. But to actually provide nukes tipped missiles to NoKo with Made in china written on it is inviting a lot of trouble.

what kind of troubles? any one that China not affordable?

 

[Yusuf]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

what kind of troubles? any one that China not affordable?

Ask yourself.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

The Next Korean War | Foreign Affairs

...the risk of nuclear war with North Korea is far from remote. Although Pyongyang's tired threats are probably bluster, the current crisis has substantially increased the risk of a conventional conflict -- and any conventional war with North Korea is likely to go nuclear. Washington should continue its efforts to prevent war on the Korean Peninsula. But equally important, it must rapidly take steps -- including re-evaluating U.S. war plans -- to dampen the risks of nuclear escalation if conventional war erupts.

Ironically, the risk of North Korean nuclear war stems not from weakness on the part of the United States and South Korea but from their strength. If war erupted, the North Korean army, short on training and armed with decrepit equipment, would prove no match for the U.S.–South Korean Combined Forces Command. Make no mistake, Seoul would suffer some damage, but a conventional war would be a rout, and CFC forces would quickly cross the border and head north.

At that point, North Korea's inner circle would face a grave decision: how to avoid the terrible fates of such defeated leaders as Saddam Hussein and Muammar al-Qaddafi. Kim, his family, and his cronies could try to escape to China and plead for a comfortable, lifelong sanctuary there -- an increasingly dim prospect given Beijing's growing frustration with Kim's regime. Pyongyang's only other option would be to try to force a cease-fire by playing its only trump card: nuclear escalation.

 

[Yusuf]

The Next Korean War | Foreign Affairs

When they tweeted this I asked them how will NoKo deliver their nukes? While NoKo is an unpredictable state, I think the US and SK have NK by its balls this time with no way out. Chubby will be forced to back down as he just can't deliver nukes tipped on his missiles.

Chubby is going to lose a lot of weight!

 

[SajeevJino]

North Korea approves nuclear strike on America ​

The Pentagon last night said that the US advanced ballistic missile defence system would be deployed in the Pacific in a direct response to increased threats from North Korea.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (Thaad) will be stationed on the Pacific island of Guam within weeks, in what appears to be a direct response to heightened rhetoric from North Korea last night.

Shortly before the Pentagon announcement, the North Korean Army said it had ratified a "merciless" attack against the US – potentially involving a "cutting-edge" nuclear strike.

"The moment of explosion is approaching fast," warned the military in a statement on the state news agency KCNA. With war ready to break out "today or tomorrow," Pyongyang said the US had "better ponder over the prevailing grave situation".

US authorities claimed the deployment of the nuclear missile defence system would "strengthen our regional defence posture against the North Korean regional ballistic missile threat".

Both developments came after North Korea yesterday barred South Korean workers from entering the Kaesong joint industrial zone, north of their demilitarised border. The move, which will only deepen tensions on the peninsula, came 24 hours after the North announced it was restarting the mothballed plutonium reactor at its Yongbyon facility, thereby signalling its intention to step up its nuclear weapons programme.

North Korea approves nuclear strike on America - Asia - World - The Independent

 

[SajeevJino]

Rep. Peter King: US could make preemptive strike on North Korea
​

Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) said Tuesday that the United States had the right to take preemptive military action against North Korea if there was "solid evidence" that Kim Jon Un planned to attack the U.S. or South Korea




"If we have good reason to believe there's going to be an attack, I believe we have the right to take preemptive action," King said on CNN's "Erin Burnett Outfront."

"I don't think we have to wait until Americans are killed or wounded or injured in any way," he continued. "I'm not saying we should be rushing into war, don't get me wrong, but if we have solid evidence that North Korea's going to take action, then I think we have a moral obligation and an absolute right to defend ourselves."

King said Tuesday night that "as of now, there's no deployment or movement or troops or any aircraft sea power whatever that would indicate any type of an attack." The White House has also suggested that North Korea's recent moves are largely symbolic, rather than substantive.

But in a telephone call Tuesday evening to Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned of a "growing threat" in the region.

"The secretary emphasized the growing threat to the U.S. and our allies posed by North Korea's aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and expressed to General Chang the importance of sustained U.S.-China dialogue and cooperation on these issues," Pentagon spokesman George Little said in a statement obtained by Fox News.

Rep. Peter King: US could make preemptive strike on North Korea - The Hill's Video

 

[SajeevJino]

Is this a TEL?

Yes Mate .But too old model

Transporter erector launcher - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Yusuf]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

The US and SoKo should take the current standoff to its logical end. Disgrace Chubby and thereby the NoKo military and force a change of regime/democracy. War may not be a bad thing right now to enforce. The reason being, NoKo does not have deliverable nukes not in any quantity. It's possible that they spent all their weapons grade fissile material in conducting their three tests. So the possibility is that the NoKos don't have a warhead ready right now and even if they do, its not missile deliverable.

This represents the best opportunity for the US and SoKo to finish the NoKo threat. As time passes, NoKo will develop missiles and warheads that will be deliverable and it will acquire deterrence against any possible US attack. Time is ripe to settle the NoKo issue right now.

 

[jamesvaikom]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

The US and SoKo should take the current standoff to its logical end. Disgrace Chubby and thereby the NoKo military and force a change of regime/democracy. War may not be a bad thing right now to enforce. The reason being, NoKo does not have deliverable nukes not in any quantity. It's possible that they spent all their weapons grade fissile material in conducting their three tests. So the possibility is that the NoKos don't have a warhead ready right now and even if they do, its not missile deliverable.

This represents the best opportunity for the US and SoKo to finish the NoKo threat. As time passes, NoKo will develop missiles and warheads that will be deliverable and it will acquire deterrence against any possible US attack. Time is ripe to settle the NoKo issue right now.

I don't think US is interested to end the problem. They can use foolish statements and actions of NK as excuse to send more troops to SK. Major Chinese cities are near Korea.

 

[asianobserve]

It's not in America's strategic interest to end the North and South divide in the Koreas. The current status quo works to America's interest: 1) It gives the US enormous leverage on SoKor (SoKor's independent tendencies is put in check); 2) It gives the US military a compelling reason to maintain its bases in SoKor (both to American public and SoKor population); 3) With the bases intact in Korea China can be checked from that angle; 4) With NoKor more of a Chinese baggage financially then it can help tie up Chinese resources (by cancelling American, Western and allied aids China will be forced to step up the support of NoKor to keep it from collapsing).

 

[bengalraider]

The Problem is not the nukes, those are just for show and bluster, the main problem is the thousands of artillery guns pointed at Seoul, in an hour the DPRK could fire more than 4,000 pieces of heavy arty at Seoul in a massive first barrage, these shells together would devastate the cityscape of seoul given that it has a large number of very visible and prominent skyscrapers that would not be able to take too much of a beating before toppling down onto streets and adjoining buildings. with a population density of more than 17,000 people/sqkm the war would turn into a massacre in the first few minutes(i'm not including chemical shells here).
for those who believe that the US forces will be able to neutralize all those guns ... keep dreaming.there is no way other than a massive thermonuclear strike on the northern side of the DMZ instantly making it impassable for allied ground forces as well. airstrikes can do nothing as almost all of these guns are well protected in natural caves and hardened shelters that provide very effective ari cover.

also one more thing not being considered is the possibility of the north having been able to reactivate a few of the aging golf-2's it bought as scrap in 1993, these were special Diesel electric ballistic missile submarines designed to launch variants of the Scud that should have been easily available from the PLA or the soviets. these if somehow still operational may pose a threat to american bases in the south pacific in a sort of kamikaze mission where they launch knowing full well that they will be sunk soon after.

a chronology of the DPRK Golf deal below

16 January 1994

The Japanese newspaper Tokyo Shimbun cites a Russian Pacific Fleet senior officer as saying that Russia has contracted with North Korea for the sale of 10 Golf II-class submarines.

Yonhap (Seoul), 18 January 1994; in JPRS-TND-94-003, 31 January 1994, pp.45-46.

17 January 1994

The Russian Defense Ministry denies the Tokyo Shimbun report regarding the Golf II-class submarine sale to North Korea and refuses to comment on the type of submarines involved or conditions of the contract. However, the Russian foreign ministry acknowledges the deal to South Korean embassy officials in Moscow with the assurance that the submarines are being sold for scrap only.

Yonhap (Seoul), 18 January 1994; in JPRS-TND-94-003, 31 January 1994, pp.45-46.

18 January 1994

Western defense analysts in Moscow say that Russia is selling 10 ballistic missile-capable Golf II-class submarines to North Korea. The analysts maintain that North Korea could install modified Nodong-1 missiles on the submarines. Although the Russian Navy insists that the submarines will be dismantled under Russian military observation, Western analysts believe that North Korea may cannibalize the submarines for parts and that knowledge of these submarines will help it to improve its own submarine technology.

Yonhap (Seoul), 18 January 1994; in JPRS-TND-94-003, 31 January 1994, pp.45-46.

(Note: The concern that North Korea might use the submarines as a launch platform for its ballistic missiles is not as farfetched as it may at first appear. The first Soviet submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the SS-N-4 Sark, was a Scud derivative, and was originally deployed on Golf-class submarines. A Scud-C may be adaptable to an SLBM role, but, at 15.5 meters in length, the Nodong-1 is one meter longer than the SS-N-4 and would not fit in a Golf launch tube without modification. The modification referred to may be a shortening of the missile, which would also shorten the range of the missile. It is not unreasonable to assume that North Korea may have had access to SLBM technology as the precursor to the SS-N-4, the R-11FM, was transferred to China in December 1959. China still uses the Golf-class submarine as an SLBM training and test platform. Additionally, it should be noted that the Russian scientists recruited in late 1992 were from the Makeyev Design Bureau, which is responsible for the design of all modern Russian SLBMs.)

CNS - Chronology of North Korea's Missile Trade and Developments: 1994-1995
it is of particular interest to note that the PLAN had used a similar golf to test the JL-1 missile when they first started testing SLBM's.

 

[tramp]

It's not in America's strategic interest to end the North and South divide in the Koreas. The current status quo works to America's interest: 1) It gives the US enormous leverage on SoKor (SoKor's independent tendencies is put in check); 2) It gives the US military a compelling reason to maintain its bases in SoKor (both to American public and SoKor population); 3) With the bases intact in Korea China can be checked from that angle; 4) With NoKor more of a Chinese baggage financially then it can help tie up Chinese resources (by cancelling American, Western and allied aids China will be forced to step up the support of NoKor to keep it from collapsing).

You have a point there, all right. It's somewhat like how the US bled Soviet Union through Afghan insurgency. However, even with North Korea gone, there will continue to be problems in the area with South China Sea issue keeping China bogged down. So, South might still push for a final solution here.

 

[Yusuf]

Re: North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test

There are many ways to look at it.

1) Routing of NoKo is a defeat for China too and loss of any ally in east Asia.
2) The bogey of China is good enough reason for US presence in SoKo which will be acceptable to both Americans as well as South Koreans
3) The silencing of NoKo far outweighs any utility of keeping it alive for any strategic gains especially when you know that in a few years it will have long range missiles with deliverable nuclear warheads. So no I don't see any strategic utility for the US in keeping NoKo alive vis a vis any leverage against SoKo.

That the NoKos have not done anything silly apart from all kinds of provocative statements and some silly maps leaks as they know that the resolve of the US and SoKo is firm and it will be detrimental for the NoKo regime to push too hard. Chubby has miscalculated the resolve of the US. Now he is in a corner he can't come out from to save his chubby face which spells disaster for him personally at least.

 

[sesha_maruthi27]

So then, is the prophecy going to be true?

Is America facing a real threat and is the world in the brink of NUCLEAR WORLD WAR 3?