North East Security Watch

[Tshering22]

Mynmar is largely a failing state.The ethnic violence that has been going on for 75 years will not subside anytime soon and the chances of Mynmar collapsing is very high.
Having friendly relationship with a country whose army largely has no control over large stretches of it's own territory will not yield any result.
If Mynmar is not going to go after North East insurgent groups,then we should do the same and carry out raids in their territory without thinking twice.



The dependence is mutual.West needs us to counter China and we need western tech to do the same.

Do you know that the ethnic disillusionment there is also being fuelled by the American churches? No one tells that out loud. They are facing the same shit we face in the NE, just exponentially more (like Congress era level). Under the guise of charity programs, these US churches supply arms and resources to Karen and Kachin insurgent groups. They were backing the Arakan separatists since the first coup started during the Cold War era, since the Tatmadaw always leaned towards towards the USSR.

Ironic how the West is perfectly fine funding Islamist fascist countries like Saudi Arabia & dozens of blood thirsty Latin American and African tyrants, but opposed Myanmar tooth and nail, isn't it?

Entire Northeast's security depends on how we navigate through the Indo-Burmese ties. They backed us when we needed their help. We should also reciprocate in kind; under the radar as much as possible.

 

[tomthounaojam]

That is pretty much the case for all the smaller countries around us; Sri Lanka and Bangladesh also play this game of playing us off against China and vice versa to extract the benefits. Applicable for Nepal as well until they don't have a commie PM.

The point is, Myanmar has been a useful ally in CT and anti-drugs operations across the border. As you know, Punjab is not the only state that is "udta" in our country; this shit of narcotics is a mess in our region as well. The last thing we want is to have the entire state ravaged with drugs in the midst of insurgency + Chinese aggression.

So we will have to do a quid pro quo arrangement with them. Mizoram state government wants to continue giving refuge to the escapees, but we need to be pragmatic here for national interests. It sounds heartless, but if it has to be India's interests, a not-so-reasonable USA, an out-of-control China and handing over a few dissidents to the Burmese junta, I'd swallow my personal sentiments down and do the lattermost.



Yes we do. But not everyone; only the most prominent dissidents that are starting armed revolts and fomenting insurgencies. Remember, we need Myanmar's cooperation on the northeastern borders with Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland. They are a valuable and one of the few regional countries that have been friendly with us, given that we don't have many friendly options in our neighbourhood.

See, don't know much about Sri Lanka, but Bangladesh they can pretty much stand on their own now, from the poorest country to one of the fastest growing economy and they have their own set of problem with Myanmar.
Mizoram accepting refugee has more to do with ethic ties and there are tribes which share common root and hence they are accepting them.
What India is doing now is very calculative moves, we many feel down or feel like doing much but keeping Myanmar under our control is very critical be Junta or democratic elected people. Hence, we are quite on what is happening there. Burma nothern states are pro chinese and that also create a headache for them and hence they are doing things that will not make Dragon angry in a nutshell, Myanmar is in a quagmire, the only way to improve our surrounding is to have a stable country there.

 

[angryIndian]

Do you know that the ethnic disillusionment there is also being fuelled by the American churches? No one tells that out loud. They are facing the same shit we face in the NE, just exponentially more (like Congress era level). Under the guise of charity programs, these US churches supply arms and resources to Karen and Kachin insurgent groups. They were backing the Arakan separatists since the first coup started during the Cold War era, since the Tatmadaw always leaned towards towards the USSR.

Ironic how the West is perfectly fine funding Islamist fascist countries like Saudi Arabia & dozens of blood thirsty Latin American and African tyrants, but opposed Myanmar tooth and nail, isn't it?

Entire Northeast's security depends on how we navigate through the Indo-Burmese ties. They backed us when we needed their help. We should also reciprocate in kind; under the radar as much as possible.

No doubt faith plays a role but not so as prominently as we see in Kashmir or Middle east.

Insurgency in Mynmar has a strong correlation with that in Sri Lanka.A multi ethnic country where a majority group(Sinhalese in Sri lanka and Bamars in Myanmar) try to dominate over minority group with institutionalized discrimination.This lead to alienation and then insurgency.

The Burmese Junta always tried to stifle minority groups,leaving them with no choice but to pick up guns.

 

[Varoon2]

India should engage with Myanmar, they are not anti-India or anti-Hindu, and they don't meddle or even comment on India's internal issues. Abandoning Myanmar would give China a free hand in Myanmar's economy, and leave China unopposed on geo-political issues affecting India. India has historic ties with Myanmar/Burma going back well over 2000 years.

On the face of it, it's laughable and contemptible, that countries in Europe would stoop to criticise India for its dealings with Myanmar. These same countries sell arms to terror central, Pakistan, and do massive business with China. While often judging India for the measures it takes to counter the two rogues( missile and of course nuclear testing)! Something is very rotten in the state of Denmark-literally.

 

[Varoon2]

Also, India tried high minded idealism for many years in the 80s-90s, by a total political boycott of Myanmar. Nothing at all came of it. Meanwhile, China increased its footprint in the country. India cannot let that happen again.

 

[angryIndian]

Nagaland Legislative Assembly Passes resolution to Repeal AFSPA,1958

 

[Tshering22]

See, don't know much about Sri Lanka, but Bangladesh they can pretty much stand on their own now, from the poorest country to one of the fastest growing economy and they have their own set of problem with Myanmar. Mizoram accepting refugee has more to do with ethic ties and there are tribes which share common root and hence they are accepting them.

What India is doing now is very calculative moves, we many feel down or feel like doing much but keeping Myanmar under our control is very critical be Junta or democratic elected people. Hence, we are quite on what is happening there. Burma nothern states are pro chinese and that also create a headache for them and hence they are doing things that will not make Dragon angry in a nutshell, Myanmar is in a quagmire, the only way to improve our surrounding is to have a stable country there.

Don't bank too much on Bangladeshi economic figures. Their statistics have glaring gaps that have been discussed to death here. if enthusiasts can recognize these gaps, imagine the experts who do this for a living. Also, Bangladesh is very volatile; meaning that there is literally no one else other than Haseena holding the state in its current form. The moment she leaves or kicks the bucket, Bangladesh will become Pakistan 2.0 again.

But yes, you're 100% right on the other stuff with Myanmar. Northern Myanmar is a Chinese colony for all practical purposes. Gas pipelines, lumber mills, bridges, roads, etc. everything runs on Chinese money.

Stability in Myanmar is not possible, since the Americans have a far more foothold through their pretend Church missions (CIA sites) there to keep the country on slow boil for the foreseeable future. But we should definitely keep our military support for the Tatmadaw. sounds counter-intuitive but let's face it - Aung Sang Suu Kyi was a joke; complete western puppet that has now fallen from grace of her masters as well. She's a nobody. There is no other civilian political figure that can replace her.

This means that the junta is the only stabilizing force. Junta hates the Rohingyas, and as the constant violence of Rohingyas in pockets of India and the Bodh Gaya bombings conveyed, they are not some peaceful Tibetans but just like the rest of Islamic terror groups. Therefore, junta crushing the radicals & helping our troops (especially the 21 para sf units that operate from Manipur) to eliminate terrorists is indispensable.

 

[Tshering22]

Nagaland Legislative Assembly Passes resolution to Repeal AFSPA,1958

View attachment 126677

Has this been discussed with the Centre? If not, then there is going to be a political shitstorm.

 

[Love Charger]

Has this been discussed with the Centre? If not, then there is going to be a political shitstorm.

Can centre counter it ?
I think it can .
It's going to be a quagmire damn it.

 

[Tshering22]

Can centre counter it ?
I think it can .
It's going to be a quagmire damn it.

Yes it can.

Most likely some form of state specific conditions will be proposed. But not repealed.

Amit Shah is simply going to ask the state government about what assurance can it give to end terrorism there. CM Neiphiu Rio better have a Naga version of KPS Gill ready in response.

See, victim card is today's way that terrorists and enemies of the state gain leverage. We need to ignore that. while the operation that happened against the civilians was messed up due to misunderstanding and miscommunication of intel, this does not eliminate the thread of NSCN.

NSCN & the Baptist Church will not just stop their activities. They will continue them and with increased intensity while pretending to be victims. Either the state government gives assurances or this gets decided now itself.

 

[Love Charger]

Yes it can.

Most likely some form of state specific conditions will be proposed. But not repealed.

Amit Shah is simply going to ask the state government about what assurance can it give to end terrorism there. CM Neiphiu Rio better have a Naga version of KPS Gill ready in response.

See, victim card is today's way that terrorists and enemies of the state gain leverage. We need to ignore that. while the operation that happened against the civilians was messed up due to misunderstanding and miscommunication of intel, this does not eliminate the thread of NSCN.

NSCN & the Baptist Church will not just stop their activities. They will continue them and with increased intensity while pretending to be victims. Either the state government gives assurances or this gets decided now itself.

I doubt mota shah will do any thing .

 

[Love Charger]

Yes it can.

Most likely some form of state specific conditions will be proposed. But not repealed.

Amit Shah is simply going to ask the state government about what assurance can it give to end terrorism there. CM Neiphiu Rio better have a Naga version of KPS Gill ready in response.

See, victim card is today's way that terrorists and enemies of the state gain leverage. We need to ignore that. while the operation that happened against the civilians was messed up due to misunderstanding and miscommunication of intel, this does not eliminate the thread of NSCN.

NSCN & the Baptist Church will not just stop their activities. They will continue them and with increased intensity while pretending to be victims. Either the state government gives assurances or this gets decided now itself.

I see , one cannot treat every situation the same way .
It's like the story of a ignorant fool who once saw a doctor who treated a camel which swallowed a whole melon and the melon got stuck in cmels neck , then the doctor crushed the melon with the help of stone , the fool who was a onlooker decided to become a doctor then and treated every ailment the same way.
Let's see what mota shah does.

 

[Love Charger]

By mota shah , I mean big shah not fat shah .
For those who don't know gujarti.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

I doubt mota shah will do any thing .

Yes.. Just wait it out.. And he is very good at that.. NAGA CM be like.. Aseembly has passed resolution to repeal AFSPA.. Ab age ka mere haath mein nahi hain

 

[Tshering22]

I see , one cannot treat every situation the same way .
It's like the story of a ignorant fool who once saw a doctor who treated a camel which swallowed a whole melon and the melon got stuck in cmels neck , then the doctor crushed the melon with the help of stone , the fool who was a onlooker decided to become a doctor then and treated every ailment the same way.
Let's see what mota shah does.

Most people don't know about the depth of the problem in Nagaland due to minimal news coming into so-called national media. The NSCN situation is quite similar to the Punjab of 1980s, but with a different twist. Khalistanis were piss-poor equipped despite Pakistan's blessings compared how NSCN is armed.

They are almost as armed as the Myanmar Army themselves, sans heavy artillery. Very mobile, and very well trained. There is no shortage of ammunition or finances thanks drug trafficking. AKs, AR-15s, mortars, mines, you name it and combine this with the knowledge of the dense jungles.

Khalistanis tried to use Sikhism but couldn't do much because Sikhi is Indian faith and there was just not enough ground since majority of the Sikh community rejected it based on the tenets of the faith. Naga story is different. It is Christian nationalism + Communism + Chinese $$. If anything, this requires 2 things; taking local civilians into confidence while being harsher in reaction to terrorists. When I say harsher, I mean Guantanamo Bay level, but without affecting civilians. It needs less visible uniforms and more ghost soldiers.

Amit Shah will have to be harsher than what Indira was in the 80s.

People of Nagaland and Manipur are as Indian as others and have the same rights to enjoy a good life in their home states. Without security, there won't be law and order; without that, there won't be investments and without investments there won't be a good life. Even if we have to borrow a page out of CCP's book, I personally say that we bite the bullet and do it.

 

[tomthounaojam]

Please AFPSA related discuss here

 

[Roshan]

People of Nagaland and Manipur are as Indian as others and have the same rights to enjoy a good life in their home states. Without security, there won't be law and order; without that, there won't be investments and without investments there won't be a good life. Even if we have to borrow a page out of CCP's book, I personally say that we bite the bullet and do it.

Do the local population there bear any hostility to the Indian state/rest of India? I keep getting mixed signals online but people from the n eastern states generally seem like the sort who are laid back and keep their head down minding their own business. The fact that they look, talk and eat differently makes it an easy faultline for inimical forces to create and then exploit.

 

[Tshering22]

Do the local population there bear any hostility to the Indian state/rest of India? I keep getting mixed signals online but people from the n eastern states generally seem like the sort who are laid back and keep their head down minding their own business. The fact that they look, talk and eat differently makes it an easy faultline for inimical forces to create and then exploit.

Most just mind our own business and keep heads down. The idea of India is precious to us all. Sadly, they get faced with ridiculous encounters of discrimination on their first exposure through college quotas and then return with a very negative image from places like Delhi and punjab. Those who study in southern, western and eastern indian colleges, have a more positive view.

There are some Nagas & Manipuris who naturally have sympathies towards separatists, but nowhere close to Kashmir where it is religious nonsense. That "some" is the ideal fertile ground for these loony groups to recruit from.

 

[Roshan]

Most just mind our own business and keep heads down. The idea of India is precious to us all. Sadly, they get faced with ridiculous encounters of discrimination on their first exposure through college quotas and then return with a very negative image from places like Delhi and punjab. Those who study in southern, western and eastern indian colleges, have a more positive view.

There are some Nagas & Manipuris who naturally have sympathies towards separatists, but nowhere close to Kashmir where it is religious nonsense. That "some" is the ideal fertile ground for these loony groups to recruit from.

I have noticed they stick together a lot when they work in other parts of India eg the beauty parlors and restaurants. I have worked with a few restaurants and Nepali and N east cooks are often their first choice for certain cuisines but they say when 1 leaves the 5 or 6 along with that person follow suit too who agree to only work as a team.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Nagaland Legislative Assembly Passes resolution to Repeal AFSPA,1958

View attachment 126677

The Centre will agree, repeal AFSPA but introduce some watered-down form of it, basically fooling the local population yet maintaining power.
The population will calm down, NDA will claim popularity (current Naga CM is NDA-aligned), and go on to win the election again.