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Should Chinese companies make big inroads into Indian infrastructure?
Ning Nanshan
Middle class moving bricks in Shenzhen 06-19 09:54
Speaking of India, I remembered the previous debate on the Internet,
That is whether Chinese companies should make big inroads into the Indian infrastructure sector.
The square is saying that India’s infrastructure has great potential, and Chinese companies have entered in large numbers, not only to establish Chinese standards in India,
And can greatly promote the sales of manufacturing equipment in China. For example, construction machinery, electric power generation equipment, railway locomotives, port equipment, etc., and the infrastructure capacity is not only available in China. If you do not occupy this market, you will naturally be occupied by other countries and Indian companies. The money has not arrived in other countries. And Indian companies.
Moreover, India will inevitably be one of the world’s largest markets. The progress of infrastructure will bring about social and economic development, and India’s per capita income will not be able to reach the level of developed countries for a long time. Therefore, it will have a huge demand for low-end products. And this is precisely the most competitive part of China's manufacturing, which means that China will become the biggest beneficiary of the expansion of the Indian market.
An obvious figure,
In 2019, India’s top three import trading partners were China, the United States and the UAE. In 2019, India imported 68.37 billion U.S. dollars, 36.24 billion U.S. dollars and 30.46 billion U.S. dollars from the three countries, accounting for 14.1%, 7.5% and 6.3% of India’s total imports, respectively. It can be seen that China is India's largest import source, more than the second and third combined.
But at the same time, India’s top three export trading partners are the United States, UAE and China.
In 2019, India’s exports to the three countries were US$53.87 billion, US$29.83 billion, and US$17.13 billion, up 4.7%, 4.0%, and 3.9%, respectively, accounting for 16.6%, 9.2%, and 5.3% of India’s total exports.
This means that the amount of India’s exports to China is very small, and China earns a large surplus from India every year.
The top three sources of India’s trade deficit in 2019 are China, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, with deficits of US$51.24 billion, US$21.20 billion, and US$20.28 billion, respectively. That is, China receives more than US$50 billion in surplus from India each year. China is the most trade partner of developing countries in the world.
The above is the trade of goods, the similar is the trade of services, the most typical is that with the advancement of communication facilities, the growth of Indian netizens, Chinese-made APPs are popular in India, which means that a large amount of income in the virtual world will flow to Chinese companies in India. Recently, because of border issues, Indians are boycotting Chinese APP again, which also shows the high market share of Chinese Internet products in India. This online news is all there.
The counter-party said that China's infrastructure export market is mostly in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, a large number of countries are small and medium-sized countries, there is no potential to become a world power, and there is no territorial dispute with China The sum of these markets is much larger than India, so India is at least not a priority country for infrastructure exports.
And because of the bargaining power that Indians are particularly good at, Chinese companies often make little profit in infrastructure construction in India. For India, not only can China use capital and technology to achieve rapid infrastructure progress, but it can also pay relatively low costs. India’s power generation progress is a very obvious example. India’s power generation jumped to the third place in the world in 2012, second only to China and the United States, and more than half of India’s power generation equipment was imported from China. The factories are all constructed by Chinese companies. In the case of infrastructure construction in India, the profit margin of Chinese companies is not high, but the benefits for India are extremely huge, which will greatly optimize the conditions for its economic development.
Although India's economic development will inevitably bring India's progress in science, technology, military and comprehensive national strength, and because of its huge size, even if the per capita is not high, it can bring amazing development potential of absolute strength. According to IMF data, India’s economic aggregate in 2019 has surpassed that of the United Kingdom, ranking fifth in the world, reaching 76% in Germany and 57% in Japan. It can be said that it is only a matter of time before the world ranks third.
The huge size of the total cannot be ignored because of India’s low per capita, and India has long regarded China as the number one enemy. It has a strong hostility towards China. The stronger India is, the harder it is to solve the problem of the southwestern border territory of China, and the more it will force China to invest More resources go to the southwest. For example, in order not to widen the gap between Pakistan and India, China must increase its economic support to Pakistan. For example, India has become stronger in the border areas, and China has also dealt with the costs that need to be invested. Will rise accordingly, equivalent to raising tigers at home.
The above-mentioned related debates I have seen before, I suddenly thought that this kind of debate is a bit like the debate about the attitude of the West, especially the United States, toward China. On the one hand, the Chinese market is too tempting, on the other hand, it is worried that China will become stronger and finally endanger itself. Interests. I think we can do a good job of studying how the western policy toward China "benefited from the Chinese market" and "avoiding China's development endangering our own key interests". Summing up the gains and losses can have some impact on India's policies. reference.
For example, products that are conducive to the development of military technology and products that are conducive to the development of key technologies must not be sold in China. In addition, what is the attitude and participation of Western companies in participating in China’s infrastructure? For example, when China introduced high-speed rail, how did Western companies do? Dealing with price, technology, and local production.
Of course, I believe there must be a lot of people doing research in this area, but there is little special information on this topic on the Internet, probably because the domestic public's attention to India is still not as good as Europe, America, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Mao Keji from the "See You Again" video mentioned that "After all, India is the world's only economy with a population of one billion except China. Once such a country follows China's trajectory and enters industrialization, it will include China. The world has an inestimable impact. So what industries should we help, what industries should not help, what infrastructure should we do, what infrastructure should we not do, what kind of companies should be acquired, what kind of companies should resist, all Think clearly."
O Mao Keji: For India, we need to think about what we should do in advance, what...
https://m.guancha.cn/MaoKeJi/2019_02_20_490749
I think it makes sense to say that if India continues to make trouble, it is estimated that my country will further strengthen the “negative list management” of India’s industries and infrastructure.