Myanmar Coup d'etat & it's impact on India

Azaad

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It looks like we are going to have a problem soon.

PLA has been conducting wargames close to Myanmar's borders and has threatened to step in militarily.

I don't expect much of US Marine-style combat from the PLA soyboys but Xi has been itching to show Chinese military power for far too long.

Myanmar is the perfect scapegoat to try this on - small, weak and infighting, there is little that the Burmese government can do given the cocktail of loans and strategic dependence they have on CCP.

Whether PLA is bogged down by rebel fighting or not is a secondary question but PLA troops in Myanmar are a no-no. China may try to do with Myanmar what Russia did with Syria - took a portion of it virtually under itself and used it to create more military infrastructure against us while throwing some scraps at the Burmese government.

I wonder whether we have calculated a scenario where we might have to step in pre-emptively or in limited capacity...

On the contrary we should welcome Chinese intervention at least initially. They'd help calm issues . If not , they may well get sucked into a civil war which wouldn't be surprising either as the US learnt in Lebanon in the 1980s & in the 2000s in Iraq & the former USSR learnt in Afghanistan. Either way we've nothing to lose .

Quite obviously we should prepare ourselves militarily & keep the powder dry for if China decides to intervene , which I very much doubt , then we may well have another front to cater to when war breaks out on the LAC. Even otherwise there's the 0.5 front to cater to where the NE could well be rocked when major conflicts brewing on different fronts explodes into action.
 

AnantS

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Interview with the head of the Chin National Front . The NE seems set for some great action in the immediate future.
I am telling you.. China shall try to open a new front from Myanmar. Which I think can have play on both sides. It can become headache for INdia and waterloo for China - if it ever comes to fore.
 

TopWatcher

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I am telling you.. China shall try to open a new front from Myanmar. Which I think can have play on both sides. It can become headache for INdia and waterloo for China - if it ever comes to fore.
Better creat buffer between india and mayanmar.
 

Tshering22

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On the contrary, we should welcome Chinese intervention at least initially. They'd help calm issues. If not, they may well get sucked into a civil war which wouldn't be surprising either as the US learnt in Lebanon in the 1980s & in the 2000s in Iraq & the former USSR learnt in Afghanistan. Either way, we've nothing to lose.

Quite obviously we should prepare ourselves militarily & keep the powder dry for if China decides to intervene, which I very much doubt, then we may well have another front to cater to when war breaks out on the LAC. Even otherwise there's the 0.5 front to cater to where the NE could well be rocked when major conflicts brewing on different fronts explode into action.
Not a good idea at all.

The Chinese are not going to be as "accountable" as the Americans and NATO were in Afghanistan. Even the Burmese regime does not care for its people - it's a green light for the PLA to do whatever the heck it wants to. That means they will be doing less of fighting and more of establishing fighting fronts against us there.

Keeping both PLA and US forces out of our immediate neighbours is going to be of utmost importance to us for the next 15 years before we are powerful enough to convey the point. US presence in Pakistan against the Taliban was a different era - their presence in the coming years would be quite unfavourable to us as we rise in power and influence.

China would simply bribe the Burmese warlords and generals to keep their nose out of the PLA business of building military bases against us.

Better create a buffer between India and Myanmar.
Burma is an erstwhile Indian territory. They were a part of our country in different forms across centuries. It means that they are in our sphere of influence. Creating buffer zones near sensitive regions of Nagaland and Manipur is only going to create more impetus for the kangaroo terrorist groups straddling the borders to demand land from us and their side.

As counterintuitive as it sounds, a stable Myanmar is in our interests and we must do whatever is necessary to keep China and the Americans out of it.

We are cursed on two sides.

On West to get connect with Central Asia. You have Porkistan and to connect with ASEAN you have Myanmar in Perennial Civil War.
It is not about curses but about inaction from our side.

We have been looking inward and have been weak and corrupt for so long that we are not looking outward. Only now with more stability have we started taking our neighbourhood seriously while our rivals and enemies have been far ahead in this game.

Pakistan and Myanmar both have solutions - but because we are so good at pedestalizing things and systems that don't suit us, we are bogged down by our inhibitions.
 
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Tshering22

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We really need to stop doing this shit. :mad2:

Just went the government is busy losing, we are asking the generals to 'return to democracy'. Does this not give legitimacy to the separatists? Sure, the junta is a bunch of tyrants, but that is not our job.

I wonder whether we have even bothered looking for a pro-India contingency plan at this stage.

This babaji gyan is not very helpful and shows us in poor light as a reliable military power.

 

Varoon2

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It would be impossible to believe that all the resistance groups are pro Beijing, let alone fighting with Beijing's support. And positively the pro democracy dissidents are not. Of course, India must be watchful and on its guard, that goes without saying.
 

Azaad

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Not a good idea at all.

The Chinese are not going to be as "accountable" as the Americans and NATO were in Afghanistan. Even the Burmese regime does not care for its people - it's a green light for the PLA to do whatever the heck it wants to. That means they will be doing less of fighting and more of establishing fighting fronts against us there.

Keeping both PLA and US forces out of our immediate neighbours is going to be of utmost importance to us for the next 15 years before we are powerful enough to convey the point. US presence in Pakistan against the Taliban was a different era - their presence in the coming years would be quite unfavourable to us as we rise in power and influence.

China would simply bribe the Burmese warlords and generals to keep their nose out of the PLA business of building military bases against us.



Burma is an erstwhile Indian territory. They were a part of our country in different forms across centuries. It means that they are in our sphere of influence. Creating buffer zones near sensitive regions of Nagaland and Manipur is only going to create more impetus for the kangaroo terrorist groups straddling the borders to demand land from us and their side.

As counterintuitive as it sounds, a stable Myanmar is in our interests and we must do whatever is necessary to keep China and the Americans out of it.



It is not about curses but about inaction from our side.

We have been looking inward and have been weak and corrupt for so long that we are not looking outward. Only now with more stability have we started taking our neighbourhood seriously while our rivals and enemies have been far ahead in this game.

Pakistan and Myanmar both have solutions - but because we are so good at pedestalizing things and systems that don't suit us, we are bogged down by our inhibitions.

A good primer on why Chinese will not involve itself DIRECTLY in Myanmar . It has as much to do with the topography as with dealing with the various tribes inhabiting it who have been used to a degree if autonomy by default what with the war they've been waging against Tatmadaw much before the current civil war & all the organs of a state they've built up namely an economy a military etc .

Having said that we ought to be vigilant . We can't afford to take anything for granted in these times.
 

Tshering22

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A good primer on why Chinese will not involve itself DIRECTLY in Myanmar. It has as much to do with the topography as with dealing with the various tribes inhabiting it who have been used to a degree of autonomy by default what with the war they've been waging against Tatmadaw much before the current civil war & all the organs of a state they've built up namely an economy a military etc.

Having said that we ought to be vigilant. We can't afford to take anything for granted in these times.
Chinese attack = inserting themselves into Myanmar with the junta's permission, bribing a few warlords, and then starting working on infrastructure against us.

Chinese would get in sneakily rather than the American way. They have border crossings and with enough pressure, they could just send in a few hundred troops to pave the way for Chinese construction teams. Worse, they could simply hire the local warring tribes to do construction work and therefore, cool down any opposition.

They don't care what happens to Myanmar. They just want a staging ground case and point Chinese entry into POK.
 

Azaad

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Chinese attack = inserting themselves into Myanmar with the junta's permission, bribing a few warlords, and then starting working on infrastructure against us.

Chinese would get in sneakily rather than the American way. They have border crossings and with enough pressure, they could just send in a few hundred troops to pave the way for Chinese construction teams. Worse, they could simply hire the local warring tribes to do construction work and therefore, cool down any opposition.

They don't care what happens to Myanmar. They just want a staging ground case and point Chinese entry into POK.
Bribing warlords & the junta is a 2 way street. Just as there are people willing to toe China's line , there will be people opposed to China for various reasons. The latter's the constituency we ought & will in all likelihood tap.
 

Tshering22

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Bribing warlords & the junta is a 2-way street. Just as people are willing to toe China's line, there will be people opposed to China for various reasons. The latter's the constituency we ought & will in all likelihood tap.
That is what I am wondering; are we even looking at the whole thing at an official level like that? Dr Jaishankar is the right man to see this through but it requires a military angle to ensure that the shitstorm in Myanmar does not spill over.

There is enough mess in Manipur already to have all that war spill over with multiple centers of power across the order.
 

Azaad

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That is what I am wondering; are we even looking at the whole thing at an official level like that? Dr Jaishankar is the right man to see this through but it requires a military angle to ensure that the shitstorm in Myanmar does not spill over.

There is enough mess in Manipur already to have all that war spill over with multiple centers of power across the order.
The spillover has ALREADY happened. We're trying to contain it to the best of our abilities. Hopefully the Meiteis don't embark on their usual suicide mission & for once do the right thing by emulating the Kuki group's behaviour all along up until just before the current crisis commenced & hopefully the Kukis let hubris get the better of them courtesy the recent successes they're enjoying in Myanmar & emulate the Meiteis's past behaviour in challenging the Indian state.
 

Tshering22

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I am increasingly convinced that we will have to step in militarily into this fiasco eventually. The last thing we want is to see warlords being bought and sold between the CIA and MSS agents in our backyard. CIA running riot across these 'rebel' factions, especially the mass-converted Chins and Myanmar's Kukis are a dangerous cocktail with American weapons. We will need to find factions that are against these convert radicals, but at the same time win public sentiments by continuing the fight against the useless junta.
 

Tshering22

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This is pretty normal in border crossings around Nagaland, Manipur and parts of Arunachal Pradesh. Myanmar's poppy is smuggled in large numbers across the borders. Several officials are hand-in-glove making money from the trade. How do you think the little gun-running gangs calling themselves "separatists" fund their weapons, training and resource aggregation?
 

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